Kilian GROSS Acting Head of Unit, A1, DG ENER European Commission

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1 Kilian GROSS Acting Head of Unit, A1, DG ENER European Commission 1

2 Climate and energy: where do we stand? 2008/ The EU climate and energy package 2

3 Climate and energy: where do we stand? Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions levels by 20% Increase share of Renewables to 20% Reduce energy consumption by 20% Reductions in 2012: -18% Share in 2011: 12.7% ~ % 2020 Projection 2020 Targets 2020 Projection 2020 Projection 3

4 Climate and energy: where do we stand? Impact of the financial crisis Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions Renewable energy saw rapid cost decreases Technologies are gradually becoming competitive Shale gas US oil and gas production Review of nuclear policies at national level Unconventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional gas Conventional oil Rising demand -> rising prices By 2030, world economy set to double and energy demand to rise by 1/3 4

5 Whya 2030 framework? Sustainability Cost-effective reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions objective: -80% to -95% GHG Security of Supply Today EU imports fossil fuels worth 400 billion per year 2030 Climate & Energy Framework EU contribution to 2015 international climate agreement Competitiveness Competitive and affordable energy prices, Growth and jobs 5

6 Public consultation 6

7 Impact Assessment - Policy options: 7 scenarios 7

8 2030 climate and energy Framework % GHG 20% RES 20 % EE % GHG 27 % RES New Key Indicators New governance system 8

9 2030 Framework: Key indicators Energy price differentials Diversification imports, share of indigenous energy Smart grids & connections between Member States Intra-EU coupling energy markets Competition and market concentration Technological innovation 9

10 2030 Framework: New Governance System National plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy Plans to improve EU wide coherence and provide investor certainty well before 2020: - How to achieve domestic objectives (non-ets GHG target, contribute to EU renewable energy target, energy savings, etc). - What other important choices such as nuclear, shale gas, low carbon fuels, CCS, etc. - How it contributes to strengthens the internal market (renewables deployment, balancing markets, generation adequacy and construction of interconnectors). - How it contributes to achieving the EU binding RES target of at least 27% 10

11 2030 Framework: New Governance System the iterative process Commission details guidance on the new governance process and contents of national plans Member States prepare plans based on an iterative process Commission assess Member States' plans and commitments 11

12 Main challenges Energy costs Increasing in any event: renew ageing energy system, rising fossil fuel prices, meeting the climate and energy targets already agreed upon Additional investments to achieve 2030 framework Shift away from fuel expenditure towards investments Differences between Member States Future discussion will have to be centred on how to ensure an equitable burden sharing affordable for all 12

13 and benefits Decoupling of Gross Domestic Product growth from Greenhouse Gas Emissions will continue Fuel savings: up to 14 billion on an average annual basis between Energy security: up to 19% cut in energy imports in 2030 compared to 2010, fossil fuel net imports bill up to 22 billion lower annually. Innovation: jobs & growth Health and air pollution benefits: billion in

14 Conclusions Key elements of the 2030: 40% GHG target at EU level (ETS and non-ets) At least 27% RES target at EU level Exact role of Energy Efficiency to be determined Key indicators for SoS and competitiveness Reform of ETS New Governance System 14

15 Next steps At European level February 2014: European Parliament March 2014: Energy and Environment Councils March 2014: European Council June European Council (?) Energy Efficiency Directive: 2014 Review and proposals Emissions Trading System proposal: co-decision procedure Development/implementation of new governance structure Competitiveness and energy security indicators And at international level 2014: Ban Ki-moon Climate Summit of World leaders 2015: contributions from Parties; Paris conference adopts international agreement 15

16 ec.europa.eu/energy/2030 LZ/A1 16

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