Impact of world economic crisis on the oil markets and economic growth in Arab Countries development

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1 Impact of world economic crisis on the oil markets and economic growth in Arab Countries development ADNAN SHIHAB -ELDIN 31 OCTOBER, 2011 KUWAIT

2 Outline Summary of World Economy Outlook Impact of financial & economic crisis on world energy: (oil demand, supply, etc.) Short, medium and long term impact & outlook Behavior & Outlook of oil prices & revenues Arab exporters: the marginal cost of oil vs. the fiscal price of oil, Outlook for investment in energy in MENA The diversification challenge & the need for an optimum use of oil revenues for diversification: Towards a Noraska approach

3 World Economic Growth Outlook: 2-tracks! USA Euro-z Japan China India Russia OPEC Large uncertainty in short-medium term! Risk remains on the downside Large uncertainty in MENA s growth outlook is due to Arab Spring, mitigated by high oil price environment!, strong balance sheets, etc ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Previous trend Recovery Step down Slower growth Consensus for level effect of the world recession is for path marked step down

4 Impact of crisis on Oil (energy ) market: Demand growth back on track in medium term Energy demand recovered in 2010, with oil demand growth ~ 3 mbd, y/y!; ~ 1.4 mbd y/y growth estimated for 2011 D/S inelastic with high prices for short term 2-track for oil demand growth also Growth exclusively in Non- OECD, mostly China, then India, MENA, while OECD demand declines ; Average growth rate 1%, (~ 1 mbd) bounded by mbd y/y,

5 Impact on Long Term Energy Outlook 2035 OPEC: Fossil fuels continue to dominate, including but oil under pressure & may yield to coal as main fuel by 2035 mboe/d 400 World supply of primary energy by fuel type IEA: similar conclusions but in Gas Scenario Gas grows nearly twice as fast as total 2%/y May overtake coal in IEA Gas Oil Coal 50 Nuclear/hydro/biomass/other renewables Source: OPEC WOO 2011 Source: IEA WEO 2011

6 World oil demand & Non-OPEC supply projections have been moving downwards IEA now exceeds OPEC demand figures (under the New Policies scenario) Although OPEC s projections have settled, the question remains whether further downward adjustments will be necessary Biggest difference is for Chinese demand growth (2.6% for IEA, 3.1% for OWEM) different economic growth growth assumptions mb/d 120 Changing world oil demand projections for 2025 IEA pessimism with regard to non- OPEC supply: for 2025 this is now 6 mb/d lower than in 2007 Appears at odds with the strong oil prices assumed EIA has revised downwards strongly over recent years, now similar to OPEC mb/d Changing non-opec supply projections for Years of projection: OPEC DOE/EIA IEA OPEC DOE/EIA IEA Years of projection:

7 mb/d Most scenarios project slow growth in demand for oil, some do forecast drop in demand & OPEC Crude supply! IEA World primary oil demand by scenario Climate policies can drive an early peak in oil demand Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario 450 Scenario in ATTP, demand down by 7 mb/d in 2035, non-opec fuels up by 3 mb/d Lower demand & higher non-opec supply reduces OPEC crude in 2035 by over 10 mb/d Both lower and higher economic growth leads to a difference in demand of +/- 9 mb/d by Global oil use continues to expand on announced policies, reaching 99 mb/d by 2035, but would need to fall to little more than 80 mb/d to achieve the climate goal (450) IEA, WEO 2010 Points to massive uncertainties over OPEC investment requirements; 2020 gap between Ref. Case and ATTP ca. $100 billion OPEC, WOO 2011

8 The price of oil: continued/increasing volatility - projections & outlook till 2035: Upward revisions Short/ medium term: moderating to: US$/b Soft batches & high/increasing volatility RISKS: World economy, China, India, demand, MENA /Libya supply,.. Long term: rising to 120 US$/b : upward revision to prices over recent years continues, supported: Vast but finite UR resources ( >7 Tb) $/b Nominal oil price assumption in last seven reference cases OWEM 2011 Captive transportation sector; Chindia Increasing cost of marginal oil RISKS: Technology breakthroughs (low cost alternative transportation fuels), collapsed global economy & Black swans! OWEM 2007 OWEM 2006 OWEM 2005 OWEM 2008 OWEM 2010 OWEM

9 Marginal vs. fiscal price of oil Both the marginal and fiscal (GCC) price of oil have been rising in tandem so far! Marginal cost (new fuels) has a range that may go down with technology breakthrough Without diversification, the fiscal price of oil will overtake the marginal cost & be unattainable! already >90 $/b for some

10 Impact of Financial & Economic Crisis on MENA Energy Investments Actual energy investment requirement back to 2008 level, with many projects shelved or cancelled; Actual energy investment requirement (12-16) back to 2008 estimate (09-13), with many projects shelved or cancelled; Power: G$ vs. total 525 G$ (12-16) Growth in power demand unsustainable & must be addressed first by improved efficiency of use to free oil for exports; Gas is obvious alternative to oil, but absence of regional gas market is distortive; Role of Renewable & Nuclear vs. oil (gas imports)! Ali Aissoui, APICORP, Sept. 2011

11 Role of oil revenues :Towards a Noraska Model (Norway +Alaska) : Role of MENA oil revenues Revenues increasing, but so are Govt. expenditures. Fiscal price of oil trending to 90 US$/b & increasing! Rising expectations are unsustainable & lead to increasing tension 2010 MENA Exports: 21 mbd GCC : 16 mbd 2010 Export revenues: ~ 600 b US$ GCC ~ 450 b US$ (estimate) 2011 MENA revenues: ~ 650 b US$ GCC ~ 550 b US$ (estimate) Need for diversification unsuccessful so far! Use of oil revenues : Investments vs. wealth distribution! Can Libya lead way to restructuring Towards Noraska Model Source: CERA 2011

12 END THANK YOU

13 Oil Price Environment: Dated Brent Quarterly average price in US dollars per barrel Source: IHS CERA, Platts (historical). Disclaimer: Historical oil price data are extracted or derived by IHS CERA from Platts. All rights reserved. All liability for errors and omissions is hereby excluded by Platts and its sources. No representations or warranties are made by Platts or its sources concerning the data or any conclusions to be drawn from it. Updated April Historical Meta Global Redesign Vortex Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q IHS CERA Global Oil Roundtable May 11, Oil Price Environment: Dated Brent

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