Socio-Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy

Transcription

1 Lecture to IRENA scholars at the Masdar Institute for Science and Technologiy 4 October, 2011 Socio-Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Thomas B Johansson Professor em, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics; Lund University; Lund, Sweden, (former) Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria

2 Early IRENA history: In prepartion for Rio Conference in 1992 the UN Secretary-General convened the United Nations Solar Energy Group for Environment and Development (UNSEGED), Solar Energy: A Strategy in Support of Environment and Development a comprehensive analytical study on renewable sources of energy. One of the proposels was that an International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) be established to promote renewables in the context of sustainable devlopment Hermann Scheer, member of the UNSEGED team, was very effective in moving this propsal forward. UNSEGED was chaired by professor Thomas B Johansson

3 From: Steffen et al Source: IGBP

4 Planetary boundaries Source: J. Rockström et al., Nature 461, pp , 2009

5 Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies, 7 to 9 billion by 2050; 2%/a p.c. b. Universal access to modern forms of energy (the ~3 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations, peak e. local and regional health and environment challenges (WHO guidelines) f. climate change mitigation (<+2 deg pre.ind.) g. ancillary risks => Major Energy System Changes Needed!

6 These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously

7 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Microchip Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Nakicenovic et a., 2009

8 Reasons for Concern The Red Embers 3.2 o C 2 o C 1.5 o C Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009

9 Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability

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11 Peak Oil

12 this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only) Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the sustainability challenges at the same time!

13 celková energie [kwh/m 2 a] % Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika PassivHaus 150 Ohřev TUV Vytápění % 0 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings,

14 Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, EEBW2006

15 final energy use: global heating and cooling Floor Area Thermal Comfort Final Energy Floor Area, 400 1E9 m^2 Energy, PWh/year 18, , % Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0-43 % ,0 4,0 2,0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 0,0 WORK IN PROGRESS DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Source: D. Urge- Vorsatz, CEU and GEA

16 Source:REN21 GSR, 2011

18 Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011

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22 Ranges of Global Technical Potential of Renewable Energy Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011

26 Examples of learning curves Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011

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28 Schematic representation of grid parity for solar PV Source: EPIA, 2008

29 PS10 and PS20 power towers in Spain (left) and a power tower solar thermal power plant in the California desert (right). Source: Left photo courtesy of Abengoa Solar

30 Range in recent levelized cost of energy for selected commercially available RE technologies Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011

31 Renewable Combi-Plant. Source: Mackensen et al., 2008

32 Renewable energy mix of the Combi-Plant: simulation for Import hydro biogas PV wind Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Mackense et al, 2008

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36 Integration of renewables and electric vehicles into a supply system Source: W. Krewitt ( ) and W. van Sark, 2011

37 Concept of a HVDC-based transcontinental super grid Source: Trieb and Müller-Steinhagen, 2007.

38 Production paths to liquid fuels from biomass and, for comparison, from fossil fuels Source: E. Larson and A Faaij, GEA

39 Projected production costs for biomass to power and to CHP Source: IEA Bioenergy, 2009.

40 Ethanol (producer, Brazil, green) and Gasoline (spot, CIF Rotterdam, red) Prices (2005US$/GJ) Selling price for ethanol in Brazil vs. cumulative production, Brazil - Ethanol comp. and Gasoline with Import Prices Rotterdam vs. Cumulative Ethanol Production price ( ) for gasoline Cumulative Ethanol Production (EJ) learning rate: ~10% reduction per doubling of cumulative production Source: Mytelka and de Sousa Jr., 2011

41 Range of production cost estimates for second-generation biofuels (in 2006 U.S. dollars per liter of gasoline equivalent). The 2030 estimates assume significant investment in RD&D. Source: Sims et al., 2010.

42 Lifecycle fossil energy use estimates in production of several biofuels Source: CONCAWE et al., 2008; Pradhan et al., 2009; Sheehan et al., 1998a; Farrell et al., 2006.

43 Life-cycle GHG emissions (CO 2 -eq/kwh), excl. land use changes Source: IPCC- SRREN, 2011

44 Mapping of the 10.7 GW installed geothermal electric capacity in 2009 Source: Bertani, 2010

45 Renewable power additions as % of global power capacity addition is more than one third! 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment % 16% 10% 21% 15% 12% 14% 31% 28% 36% 32% 6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 5.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8% Renewable power capacity addition as a % of global power capacity addition Renewable power generation increase as a % of global power generation increase Renewable power as a % of global power capacity Renewable power as a % of global power generation

46 Some overall observations Decentralized and centralized Small scale and modular Local conditions determine best options Integrate with energy demand Build systems to handle intermittecy (the baseload concept to be retired)

47 Renewable energy and sustainable development 1. Contribute to social and economic development 1. Cost savings in remote areas 2. Reduced energy imports 3. Domestic job creation 2. Help accelerate access to modern forms of energy, both for electricty and cooking, a total of 2.7 billion people 3. Contribute to more secure supplies of energy 4. Reduced GHG emissions 5. Improved health due to less pollution

48 Annual global new grid connections, wind 30 GW PV 10 5 Nuclear Year

49 2008$/kW Nuclear PWR Investment Costs (US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests) Nuclear PWR Investment Costs US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs US average France best guess cum GW installed Source: US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009

50 Objectives and goals for the GEA energy back-casting secenario for 2050 Support economic growth at recent historic rates Almost universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030 Reduce air pollution impacts on health, adhering to WHO guidelines Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2 o C above preindustrial global mean temperature Improve energy security through enhanced diversity and resilience of energy supply And in the process, address peak oil and nuclear proliferation challenges

51 EJ EJ Supply-side Flexibility Demand-side Flexibility EJ Global Energy Assessment (GEA) Pathway Taxonomy Feasible supply-side transitions (primary energy by 2050) High demand Branching point: Supply Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT Branching point: Efficiency GEA-Mix Intermediate demand Branching point: Supply Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT Low demand Branching point: Supply Savings Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs ST NN NC NB N2 LB LR AT

52 EJ Global Primary Energy -- Efficiency Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Microchip Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: GEA Chapter (in preparation)

53 Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy X X X X X X X X X X X X EJ X X X X X X X EJ EJ Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy GEA Efficiency Microchip Advanced transportation Conventional transportation Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Mix Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Supply

54 GEA-Supply

55 Early action to avoid lock-in: The lock-in risk for Western Europe Thermal Comfort Final Energy, state-of-the-art scenario Thermal Comfort Final Energy, suboptimal scenario Energy, PWh/year Energy, PWh/year 3,5 3 2,5 68.7% 3,5 3 2,5 26.1% 2 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 1,5 1 0,5 0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard Source: D. Urge-Vorsatz, CEU and GEA

56 Why RE policies and programmes? Existing set of general policies and institutions favor incumbent industry Market failures, incl. social and environmental issues Lack of edcation and access to data, technical capacity and know-how

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59 Million US$2008 PPP Public Sector Energy RD&D in IEA Member countries by major technology group Other Efficiency Renewables Fossil Fuels Fusion Nuclear w/o fusion % future technology needs share in cum. emission reduction past and current R&D into developing improved technologies, shares by technology Distribution of past and current energy R&D as compared to future technology needs from the pathways analysis 80% 60% 40% 20% Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency Source: GEA Chapter 24 0% Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio) public energy R&D (past, current R&D portfolio) MIN Mean Max

60 Some policy examples feed-in-tariffs quotas priority grid access building mandates biofuel blending requirements bioenergy sustainability criteria loans, guarantees, and grant programmes land use planning fiscal policies, taxes carbon pricing

61 Electricity Generation (TWh) Wind Power in EU-27 and FITs Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support Source: European Commission

62 EU Renewable Shares of Final Energy, 2005 and 2009, with Targets for 2020 Source: GSR, REN21, 2011

63 not just energy technology Urban planning Transportation systems Material use Land use Consumption patterns..

64 Economic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate change Multiple benefits concept Value all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment,...) Costs in terms of per tc misleading Energy efficiency Renewable energies Measures can be justified on local and immediate grounds rather than grounds that are global and in the future

65 Conclusions Rapidly changing world Transformative changes needed on energy Window of opportunity exists Resources and technologies exist Energy efficiency improvements priority #1 Rapidly growing role for renewable energies Electricity growing importance Policies and institutions critical Energy subsidies and R&D misallocated Capacity development worldwide

66 Thank you!

67 WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS