Finance in implementing a sustainability policy. Frans Rooijers - director CE Delft

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1 Finance in implementing a sustainability policy Frans Rooijers - director CE Delft

2 CE Delft Independent research and consultancy since 1978 Transport, energy and resources Know-how on economics, technology and policy issues 45 Employees, based in Delft, the Netherlands Clients: European Commission and Parliament, national and regional governments, industries and NGO s Some publications: - Energyscenario s Thinktank Energymarket - External costs of transport in Europe - Handbook Shadow prices - External costs of coal 2

3 Finance and Sustainability Part I: Energy demand What s going on - Energy trends now sectors : a) build environment, b) transport, c) industry, d) electricity Part II: External costs What does it mean? - What are external costs? - Carbon Bubble - External cost in the energy sector? - How to measure external costs: shadow prices - Impact on oil, kerosene and coal sector? Conclusions The role of finance in implementing a sustainability policy 3

4 Part I: EU energy trends now-2030 Emission reduction: 40% cut in GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 1990 level. Decarbonisation by 2050 Renewable energy: 27% share of renewable energy consumption (electricity, green gas, heat, biofuels) Energy efficiency: 27% increase compared to BAU Fossil fuel: World prices for oil, gas and coal are expected to decrease, but end-use-prices will increase Energy efficiency: Increased energy-efficiency (heat pumps, lighting, buildings, engines) Technology: Decreasing costs and increasing performances (e.g electric vehicles) Large effects for all stakeholders 4

5 Energy demand: 4 sectors Gebouwde Omgeving Transport Industrie Elektriciteit LT warmte vooral aardgas 30 Mton CO2 20 milard m3 800 PJ Mobiliteit benzine en diesel 500 PJ HT warmte aardgas + olie 20 bcm (+feedstock) 650 PJ licht/kracht 110 TWh kolen, aardgas, HE 400 PJ+300 PJ 5 1

6 Energy demand in the build environment (LT) Mainly demand for low temperature heat Verderling functionele LT-warmtevraag (2030) 10% 4 techniques to meet LT demand today: Energy saving (isolation, ventilation) (natural)gas CV > 90% 30% 10% 50% Industrie Huishoudens Landbouw Utiliteit Elektricity: heatpump 1-2% Heat delivery (large- and small scale) 5-8% Reduction of energy use: from m 3 (1970) to m 3 (2014) by isolation and energy efficient boilers ( HR-boiler) Challenge: how to meet demand for heat in the build environment without natural gas? 6

7 Build environment: future with zero CO 2 Energy savings in shell of buildings: reduction of heat demand with 25% 7

8 PJ Industry: demand for high temperature heat About 20% of energy demand is used for HT-heat in the industry Energysavings progress slowly, but large changes are possible Opbouw functionele HT-warmtevraag (2030) >1.000 C C C C C

9 Industry: demand for high temperature heat Trend Strong CO 2 -reduction due to: Process innovation Natural gas with CCS Use of biomass Reuse of materials/resources CHP gradually disappears Substitution by elektricity Decline in demand CO 2 - and steam networks necessary in industrial area Circular & Biobased Economy new goal 9

10 EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) EU ETS European regulation to combat climate change ETS puts a cap on total amount of emissions The result is a price on carbon International system for trading greenhouse gas emission allowances Covers > power stations and industrial plants in 31 countries Sectors included Power and heat generation, Energy-intensive industry, incl oil refineries Commercial aviation Agreements: 2020: emission reduction of 21% compared to : emission reduction of 43% compared to

11 Transport: energy demand trend Energy demand trends in the transport sector - More fuel efficient cars in short term - More use of public transportation and bicycle (all big cities in EU) - More passenger fligths - Road transport (passenger): electric or hydrogen - Road transport (freight): hydrogen, (bio)lng 11

12 Electricity market Energy demand trends in the electricity market: Increasing share solar and wind energy, but largest share today still coal and natural gas (90%) Reduction in operating hours for conventional plants Coal out of business >> more gas Increasing demand for electricity >> reinforcement + smart grid - Heat pump and electric transport Shift from exploitation cost to capital costs - Variable costs decrease - Energy demand trends in the electricity sector: new investements uncertain 12

13 Grids & energysources for the future Now Later Build environment (low temp heat) Industry (high temp heat) Energy carrier Energy carrier Sources > 95% gas Gas ~ 25% Heat ~ 50% Elektricity ~25% 70% gas 20% coal, 10% oil Gas Elektricity Transport Gasoline/diesel Hydrogengas Biofuels Electricity Green gas-biomass geothermal and solar energy Biomass, Natural gasccs Elektricity Biomass Electricity Electricity Electricity Production of solar, wind and biomass energy 13

14 Gas changes from natural gas to greengas 2050 IEA 10 to 20 billion m3 (green) gas Greenpeace Frans Rooijers - Gas is geen aardgas 14

15 Conclusions (Part I) Energy demand: no longer automatically increases with the economy (GDP) Energy carriers: - Role of electricity increases, role of gas reduces - Substitution Electricity for heat and transport Heat supply for low temperature heat Gas used for demand peaks, less for volumes Energiesources: - Solar, wind, geothermal and biomass - Energy becomes more expensive Fossil: - Only fossil with CCS (industry) 15

16 What does the energy transition mean in terms of costs? Energy prices increase in the next 30 years Fossil fuel prices decrease >> carbon budget! External costs increase, mainly CO2 Which will result in increased taxes and levies 16

17 Carbon Budget Carbon budget: In order to limit global warming to 2 C there is a fixed amount of allowed emissions (cap) But global oil and gas reserves > cap So not all fossil fuel reserves will be burned 17

18 Carbon Bubble? Gas: incl 80% shale gas Oil: incl 100% Arctic, 99% tar sands Bubble? Source: University College London Bubble in valuation of reserves in the oil/gas/coal sector Oil/gas reserves have already been included as an asset in the financial system, but will not all be depleted Loss in value for fossil fuel companies Reduced or zero value of an asset Stranded assets (infrastructure and developments that can t be used) 18

19 External costs External costs = Costs for side effects caused by extraction, production, transportation or consumption of a product. E.g. noise, pollution or loss of biodiversity How to measure these indirect or external costs? -> shadowprices Shadowprices : are constructed prices for goods or production factors that are not traded in markets. They express the external costs in /kg emission. E.g. the costs of climate change in CO2 equivalents. Often used in Cost Benefit Analysis to measure environmental quality 2 calculation methods: Abatement: costs that need to be incurred to secure the environmental policy target (prevention) Damage costs: based on the estimated damage as a result of emissions (WTP) 19

20 External costs External costs = emissions x shadow price Specific look at: Oil/gas Coal sector Electricity market Kerosene 20

21 Shadowprices CE Delft: shadow prices handbook = set of shadow prices for valuing and weighting environmental impacts for different GHG s Shadow prices of CO2 emissions in EU27 (based on damage costs) Costs for human health: /kg /kg = 25/ton Costs for ecosystems: /kg 21

22 External costs: oil and gas Fossil fuel prices do not include the costs of their side effects such as air pollution and the associated health & care costs External costs: extraction, production, consumption, distribution - Human health: Injuries, ilnesses from production and distribution, health care costs from air pollution - Environmental damages: Habitatdisruption, air-, noise-, water- and land pollution from (incl oil spill/landscape impact/earth quakes), global warming - Depletion: Depriving future generations non renewable resourcesresources - Security risks: Military and political costs of maintaining access to foreign sources Future trends? which tend to have large economic, social and environmental external costs VTPI (2013) Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II Resource Consumption External Costs 22

23 External costs: coal External costs of emissions to mining & power plant emissions - human health impacts from air pollution - costs attributable to climate change - fatalities due to accidents from mining operations Estimation of external costs: 360 billion - world CO2 damage cost: 20 euro per ton (2007 price) CE Delft, 2008: External costs of coal 23

24 Coal standard Coal CCS Coal 50% biomass Coal 50% biomass CCS Nuclear CCGT Gas CHP Biomass Wind, on shore Wind, off shore solar PV solar CHP Coal standard Coal CCS Coal 50% biomass Coal 50% biomass CCS Nuclear CCGT Gas CHP Biomass Wind, on shore Wind, off shore solar PV solar CHP External costs for coal and gas 200 Euro/MWh environmental CO2 fuel maintenance fixed Present situation Future Direct, indirect and external costs CO 2 50/ton hours instead of for conventional plants Cost reduction solar PV and offshore wind Figures: Overview of production costs/mwh for coal, gas, biomass, wind, solar 200 Euro/MWh environmental CO2 fuel maintenance fixed 0 24

25 External costs: kerosene Costs: Fuel consumption: 66% External costs: 34% Climate change (CO2, N2O, CH4) Air pollution (PM, Nox,SO2) Pkm = passenger km These include: Health costs Crop losses Damage to materials and buildings Climate adaptation Impact ecosystems and biodiversity Own calculations based on CE Delft (2010) Externe en infrastructuurkosten van verkeer 25

26 /ton CO2 Development of shadow prices? Shadow prices for CO2: lower value central value upper value CE years Source: CE Delft (2010) Handbook shadowprices (update coming next year) Increasing external costs in the future -> higher shadow prices CO2 26

27 What does it mean for YOU? External costs are increasing due to increased energy demand and increased urge to prevent climate change The energy transition to renewable energy will create huge shift, away from fossil energy Therefore, you should get insight in the external costs of extraction, production, tranportation and consumption in your sector And internalise external costs as much as possible to achieve sustainable development 27

28 Thank you for listening For more information: Frans Rooijers CE Delft Oude Delft HH Delft Our publications: 28

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