3) Deliverables An inception report detailing the methodology adopted and the timeline for conducting the study; Page 3 of 5

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1 Terms f Reference Ormia REDD+ Prgram Analysis f causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia Reginal State and Identificatin f Strategies t address thse 1) Backgrund Ethipia is the secnd-mst ppulus cuntry in Sub-Saharan Africa and ne f the wrld s prest cuntries, with a ppulatin f mre than eighty-five millin. Ethipia is nt a majr emitter f greenhuse gases, but des stre substantial carbn stcks (ver 2.7 billin tns f CO2e) in mre than 12 millin hectares f frests and wd lands. Due t the increase f ppulatin and the expansin f agricultural activities, these frests are being lst at an alarming rate. In the cntext f Ethipia s develpment situatin, there is an pprtunity t capture and deply climate finance in pursuit f the cuntry s aims t imprve livelihds, build resilience and reduce pverty. The Gvernment f Ethipia (GE) has develped a Climate Resilient Green Ecnmy (CRGE) strategy. The CRGE visin aims t build a climate resilient green ecnmy and t make the cuntry carbn neutral by The Strategy identifies eight key sectrs that play key rles in sustainable develpment: Reducing Emissins frm Defrestatin and Frest Degradatin (REDD+), sils, livestck, energy, buildings and cities, industry, transprt and health. T supprt the implementatin f these pririties, the Gvernment set up a natinal financial mechanism called the Ethipia CRGE Facility under the Ministry f Finance and Ecnmic Develpment (MFED). The CRGE Facility is the primary mechanism t mbilize bth dmestic and freign funds and integrate climate finance tward the brader aims f the CRGE. Sectral ministries and ther gvernment entities, including subnatinal, are expected t develp Investment Plans as a means f articulating pririties and accessing the CRGE Facility (and demnstrating preparedness t internatinal standards). The Facility is at an early stage f becming peratinal and is receiving technical and financial supprt frm several develpment partners, including the United Natins Develpment Prgramme (UNDP), DFID, Gvernment f Austria, the Glbal Green Grwth Institute (GGGI), the Wrld Bank and thers. REDD+, Agriculture and Livestck are key elements f the CRGE visin, because f the level f emissins under the business as usual scenari and their psitive cntributin t resilience building. T achieve the GE s CRGE related gals n agriculture, frestry and ther land use change (AFOLU), the Ministry f Agriculture (MA) is implementing a Natinal REDD+ Readiness Prgram. Since 2008, Ethipia is an active member f the Frest Carbn Partnership Facility (FCPF). The Gvernment started preparatin f a Readiness Preparatin Prpsal (R-PP) in April 2010, led by the Envirnmental Prtectin Authrity (EPA, recently transfrmed int the Ministry f Envirnmental Prtectin and Frestry). The cuntry s final R-PP was endrsed by the FCPF Participants Cmmittee in March With assistance frm the Wrld Bank s BiCarbn Fund, Ethipia als achieved the first emissin reductin prject in Africa t be registered under the Clean Develpment Mechanism (Kyt Prtcl). The highly regarded Humb Cmmunity Assisted Natural Regeneratin Prject has transfrmed a 2,780 ha degraded landscape int a prductive cmmunity managed landscape space, generating carbn payments fr seven lcal frest cperatives. Mre recently, in May 2013, the Gvernment f Ethipia has recgnized the Ormia REDD+ prgram as a natinal REDD+ pilt prgram. There are expectatins that the Gvernment f Ethipia wuld like t pilt REDD+ investment prjects in ther parts f the cuntry t draw lessns fr shaping the REDD+ strategy currently under preparatin. In rder t generate key technical inputs fr the preparatin f the Prgram, GE is seeking a highly capable cnsultant firm. 2) Objectives f the assignment The verall bjective f this study is t cntribute fr the preparatin f Ormia REDD+ prgram. The specific bjectives include a thrugh identificatin and analysis f all direct and underlying causes and agents f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia state regin and the identificatin and priritizatin f strategic ptins t address these causes (including thrugh cst analysis). The study Page 1 f 5

2 Terms f Reference Ormia REDD+ Prgram Analysis f causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia Reginal State and Identificatin f Strategies t address thse must evaluate the impact f drivers at all levels, lk beynd the frest sectr and cnsider their relatinship t all land use activities. The study shuld als assess the ptential fr increased carbn remvals thrugh affrestatin and refrestatin. The Ormia REDD+ strategy t address the main drivers f defrestatin and frest degradatin shuld be fully in line with the Natinal REDD+ strategy and with the CRGE Visin, particularly the Green Ecnmy strategy fr the land use sectr, including frestry, agriculture and crps. 2) Specific Tasks Cnduct an in-depth cmprehensive spatial and sci-ecnmic analysis f present and future prximate and underlying causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia reginal state. This analysis shuld be spatially disaggregated by sub-regins and types f frests, and shuld calculate the quantitative cntributin f each prximate cause t verall defrestatin and frest degradatin and t natinal GHG emissins, t the extent pssible. Of particular imprtance will the analysis f frest cnversin int cmmercial and subsistence agriculture and frest degradatin related t fuel wd cllectin. Analysis shuld als include the impact f develpment activities including rad infrastructure, ppulatin grwth, re-settlement amng thers n defrestatin and frest degradatin. The cnsultants will make use f field visit t defrestatin htspts t better understand the lcal sci-ecnmic dynamics leading t frest cver lss. The analysis shuld clearly identify the htspts f defrestatin, and the gegraphic areas where the pressure stems frm. Mdel future defrestatin and frest degradatin in the regin, taking int accunt the main explicative variables t Defrestatin and Frest Degradatin and their evlutin. The main agents f defrestatin and frest degradatin shuld be identified, alng with a sci-ecnmic analysis f their engagement in thse activities leading t frest cver reductin. The analysis shuld clearly distinguish between cmmercial and subsistence activities, particularly in the agriculture sectr. Particular attentin shuld be paid t the rle f lcal cmmunities in defrestatin and frest degradatin with an analysis f their degree f dependency n frest resurces. Cmmercial agriculture and ther cmmercial drivers f defrestatin, including future pressure frm freign investrs, shuld als be analyzed. Particular attentin shuld be given t addressing the cnversin f frests t agricultural land. Cnduct a cmprehensive analysis f the underlying causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin, such as natinal and reginal plicies, establishing, t the extent pssible, the link between these underlying causes and the identified prximate causes. T a minimum, this analysis shuld cnsider the rle f the fllwing variables in encuraging (r discuraging) defrestatin and frest degradatin: i) rule f law and assciated defrestatin, ii) land tenure, iii) law enfrcement and gvernment capacity n the grund, iv) demgraphics evlutin, internal including migratin patterns; v) macrecnmic cntext; vi) gvernment plicies, particularly thse related t the Grwth and Transfrmatin Plan and the Master Land Use Planning fr the Ormia regin (zning); vii) land licensing and certificatin prcess. Assess the current enabling envirnment with regards t REDD+. Identify plicy, legal and institutinal gaps that wuld hinder effectiveness f REDD+ implementatin, and identify strategies t address these gaps. Page 2 f 5

3 Terms f Reference Ormia REDD+ Prgram Analysis f causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia Reginal State and Identificatin f Strategies t address thse Assess the likely future scenaris f defrestatin and frest degradatin based n the identified drivers in the past and cnduct a scenari analysis f which drivers will be mst imprtant in the future (including new drivers) \and their gegraphical distributin. The study shuld analyze the current Gvernment s ambitius plans in different sectrs, mst imprtantly in the agriculture, infrastructure and energy sectrs and estimate the likely impact n future defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia state regin. Assess the ptential fr increased carbn remval thrugh refrestatin and affrestatinf previusly degraded lands within the Ormia state regin. Prvide ptential strategic ptins t address the identified present and future (quantified thrugh the mdeling exercise) causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin and fr increased carbn remvals. These strategic ptins shuld cnsist f plicies prgrams and activities and be cherent with the identified causes. These ptins shuld, t the extent pssible, be based n natinal r internatinal best practices n plicies / prgrams and activities targeted at reducing defrestatin and frest degradatin. Particular attentin shuld be paid t the natinal experiences in addressing defrestatin, including the prmtin f Participatry Frest Management and Assisted Natural Regeneratin, effrts t rehabilitate degraded lands, use f alternative energy r energy efficient technlgies, and intensificatin f agriculture r prmtin f new agriculture practices such as cnservatin agriculture and agrfrestry. The strategic ptins shuld be guided by the principles f effectiveness, efficiency,fairness, transparency and accuntability. Prvide cst estimates fr each f the identified strategic ptin and build a marginal abatement cst curve (i.e. per tn f reduced emissins) fr the different ptins identified. This analysis will reprt the pprtunity-cst per land unit based n the frgne benefits frm ther activities, such as cmmercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, silv-pastral and any ther relevant nn-frest activities. The cst analysis shuld als include implementatin and transactin csts. Identify the main plicies that shuld be implemented t create an enabling envirnment fr REDD+ t be achieved, particularly thse plicies related t land tenure, land certificatin, and land user rights clarificatin, cmmand and cntrl activities and law enfrcement, and land use planning fr the Ormia State Regin. Special attentin shuld be paid n identifying where the prmtin f ecnmic incentives thrugh direct payments t land users fr carbn and ther ecsystem services (i.e. thrugh PES schemes) can help t tackle the drivers f defrestatin and frest degradatin. Prpse criteria fr priritizing the identified strategic ptins and classify them accrding t these criteria (scial, feasibility, risks, csts, etc.) Cnduct a SWOT analysis f the pririty ptins identified, and detail hw these culd be implemented n the grund, including pssible institutinal arrangements t implement them. Prpse a timeframe fr the implementatin f this strategy, and identify clear milestnes/ targets fr its implementatin. Organize capacity building activities n the study results fr the REDD+ secretariat and ther relevant stakehlders. Hld cnsultatins with different stakehlders in the Ormia State Regin and relevant natinallevel rganizatins n the issues identified in these TRs. 3) Deliverables An inceptin reprt detailing the methdlgy adpted and the timeline fr cnducting the study; Page 3 f 5

4 Terms f Reference Ormia REDD+ Prgram Analysis f causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia Reginal State and Identificatin f Strategies t address thse A mid-term prgress reprt. At this stage, the identificatin f drivers f defrestatin and frest degradatin shuld be cmpleted; Plicy briefs t influence reginal plicy frmulatin; Wrkshp reprts relevant t the study; A final reprt clearly presenting the causes f defrestatin and the strategic REDD+ ptins fr the Ormia state regin in a priritized way t address the majr drivers f defrestatin. This final reprt shuld als cntain the detailed reprts frm all public cnsultatins held; 4) Methdlgy Literature review f existing wrk n drivers f defrestatin and frest degradatin in Ethipia and n existing data relevant fr the analysis. An impressive bdy f wrk already exists and shuld be assessed prir t launching any field wrk 1 ; Spatial analysis f land use change in Ethipia, seeking t crrelate land use change t specific drivers f defrestatin and frest degradatin and their sci-ecnmic cntext; Field visits t DD htspts and fcus grup discussins with lcal stakehlders; Use f an internatinally recgnized framewrk fr identifying and reprting n the drivers f defrestatin. Use f an internatinally recgnized framewrk t assess the csts f the prpsed strategic ptins; Hld targeted multi-stakehlder cnsultatins thrughut the study. It will be particularly imprtant that frest-dependent cmmunities are well represented in these cnsultatins, which shuld be held in clse crdinatin with the REDD+ Secretariat and the Ormia REDD+ Technical Grup; Undertake capacity building activities and ensure transfer f knwledge t lcal experts wrking n REDD+ issues; Crdinate this assignment with the preparatin f the Analysis f causes if defrestatin and frest degradatin in Ethipia at the natinal level (led by the REDD+ Secretariat the MA). This study shuld be under preparatin at the same time as this assignment. This study shuld be clsely crdinated with the nging establishment f a state-level REL and MRV systems. 5) Duratin f the assignment The verall assignment is expected t be finalized within five(5) mnths after cntract signature. The inceptin reprt shuld be delivered fifteen (15) days after cntract signature; the mid-term prgress reprt within tw (2) mnths f cntract signature; and the final reprt within five(5) mnths f cntract signature. 6) Required firm s qualificatins 1 The R-PP identifies the fllwing studies n defrestatin and frest degradatin: DerejeTadesse, 2007; GessesseDessie and Kleman, 2007; KebedeSeifu, 1998; FiteGetaneh, 2008; Tekle and Hedlund, 2000; Van Muysen et al., 1998; GeteZeleke and Hurni, 2001; Reusing, 1998; WBISPP, 2004). Page 4 f 5

5 Terms f Reference Ormia REDD+ Prgram Analysis f causes f defrestatin and frest degradatin in the Ormia Reginal State and Identificatin f Strategies t address thse The firm t be cntracted is expected t bring tgether a balanced level f natinal and internatinal expertise. Cnsrtiums f lcal and internatinal firms are particularly encuraged. The team shuld be cmpsed, t a minimum, f master-level experts in the fields belw: Frestry expert with knwledge f land use dynamics in East Africa and Ethipia in particular; Expert n rural ecnmy with experience in Africa; Scial Expert Expert n natural resurces gvernance; Experience n REDD+, particularly n the ecnmics f REDD+; Expert n spatial analysis. Experience wrking n land use in East Africa is desired. 7) Supervisin and reprting The Internatinal cnsultant firm t reprt t: WB Task Team, led by Edward Dwumfur (edwumfur@wrldbank.rg) and André Aquin (adeaquin@wrldbank.rg) Natinal REDD+ Secretariat and Natinal Technical Wrking Grup Ormia Prgram Crdinatr and Ormia REDD+ Technical Wrking Grup Page 5 f 5