OECD-NEA Study Cost of Nuclear Accidents-liabilities Issues and their Impact on Electricity Costs

Transcription

1 OECD-NEA Study Cst f Nuclear Accidents-liabilities Issues and their Impact n Electricity Csts Wrkshp Appraches t estimatin f the csts f nuclear accidents May 28-29, 2013 OECD/NEA Headquarters, Issy-les-Mulineaux, France OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Nuclear Develpment Divisin

2 Objectives f the study The main bjectives f the study Cst f Nuclear Accidents-liabilities Issues and their Impact n Electricity Csts are: Cnduct an appraisal f existing studies and data n the ecnmic csts f severe nuclear accidents that have ccurred in civil nuclear energy (TMI, Chernbyl, Fukushima). Review existing studies and methdlgies fr estimating csts assciated t severe nuclear accidents, their applicatin, uncertainties and limitatins. Develp methdlgical advice n cst assessments, including cnsistent definitin f damage and cst elements and their perspective-specific characterisatin and relative rder f imprtance. T the extent pssible develp case studies n the basis f the defined methdlgy and perfrm reviews, e.g. t assess the impact f appraches and limits adpted by regulatry authrities and gvernments n accident cnsequences/csts. On the basis f expert advice cnsider hw the risks assciated with such accidents might be analysed and cmpared with ther risks. Review existing liability regimes in OECD cuntries, cnsider implicatins and ptential imprvements. 2

3 Wrk plan Transverse OECD/NEA prject (NDC, CRPPH, NSD, LEG) The prject is verseen and directed by an Ad Hc expert grup with representatives nminated by OECD/NEA members cuntries. Three meeting f the expert grup are scheduled in the biennium Tw wrkshps will be rganised n specific themes Wrkshp I (28-29 May 2013): Appraches t estimatin f the csts f nuclear accident Appraisal f existing studies n the csts f TMI, Chernbyl and Fukushima accidents. Perspectives and methdlgies fr assessing nuclear accident csts. Invlvement f internatinal experts frm gvernments, research and industry Wrkshp II (Dec. 2013): Nuclear accident risk, liability issues and cmpensatins schemes Review f liabilities regimes currently applicable in OECD and nn-oecd cuntries State participatin: legal basis, amunt and nature, financial impact n peratr Mechanisms implemented if the accident liability exceeds the caps legally prvided Discussin f pssible mechanism that culd internalise the cst f nuclear accidents Representatives f legal cmmunity and insurance industry 3

4 Prblem statement The risk f a severe nuclear accident cannt be reduced t zer, carrying the ptential t cause grave cnsequences t the cncerned nuclear site and, if ffsite radilgical releases are invlved, the surrunding territry, with effects n the surrunding ppulatin and ptential cntaminatin f assciated land Impact n energy chices f several cuntries and n the whle nuclear industry. What are the true csts f a nuclear accident is therefre a cmplex and highly debated questin. Assessment f external csts f nuclear accident wuld require a brader perspective, including a larger range f cst categries/ elements. Are existing assurance mechanisms and cmpensatins schemes sufficient? 4

5 Example f cst categrisatin (1) OECD/NEA reprt (2000): Methdlgies fr Assessing the Ecnmic Cnsequences f Nuclear Reactr Accidents The definitin f the cst f accident depends n the bjective: Accident preparedness and management Cmpensatin perspective Future planning (f the natinal energy mix) Direct cst: Quantities with particular mnetary value The glbal cst may nt have a mnetary value since it includes persnal and physilgical impacts such as pain etc.: Sme effects are mre directly valued using micr-ecnmic mdels, which essentially sum up all the individual items f which the cst is cmpsed (e.g. fd dispsal r decntaminatin) At the ther extreme, are effects mre difficult t quantify, like secndary impacts f cuntermeasures, which wuld be mre adequately evaluated using macr-ecnmic methds, like thse based n input-utput tables. This will require the cmbinatin f results frm separate assessments. Hwever, special cautin must be taken t avid duble cunting the same effect when cmbining different assessments. 5

6 Example f cst categrisatin (2) OECD/NEA reprt (2000): Methdlgies fr Assessing the Ecnmic Cnsequences f Nuclear Reactr Accidents has identified the fllwing cst categries: On-site Csts Cst f decmmissining and decntaminatin Lss f capital (e.g. installed capacity) Applicatin f cuntermeasures t reduce dses Ppulatin mvement Transprt away frm the affected area. Temprary accmmdatin and fd. Supervisin f the evacuated area and mnitring f peple. Lss f incme fr peple unable t reach the wrkplace. Lst capital value and investment n land and prperty. Psychlgical effects f wrry and upheaval. Agricultural restrictins and cuntermeasures (e.g. amunts f agricultural prduce that are lst r restricted) Decntaminatin Cst f cleaning prcess, including the necessary equipment and materials, and the dispsal and transprtatin f generated waste. Cst f labur. Cst f health effects induced in the wrkfrce. Radiatin-induced health effects in the expsed ppulatin. Cst f radiatin-induced health effects Early effects. Latent effects. Hereditary effects. Direct health care csts. Indirect csts, due t the lss f earnings during treatment and cnvalescence r f the ttal Human capital apprach: Cst f indirect impact n the ecnmy, resulting frm the temprary r permanent remval f the individual frm the wrkfrce expected future earnings in the case f death. Nn-mnetary csts, such as pain, grief and suffering assciated with each effect Psychlgical effects. Impact n the activity with which the installatin is assciated, fr example the pwer prgramme. Impact n ecnmic factrs: emplyment, revenues, lsses f capital, etc Lng-term scial and plitical impact. Envirnmental and eclgical impact. 6

7 Cmpensatin mechanisms: Illustratin based n Price-Andersn Act Nuclear Cmpensatin mechanisms in the United States Private Insurance: Reactr peratrs must maintain financial prtectin (e.g. liability insurance frm American Nuclear Insurance): M$ 375 available t all perating pwer reactrs Secndary Financial Prtectin prgramme: Shuld an accident at any NPP result in damage in excess f the M$ 375 layer, all NPP peratrs will be charged a retrspective premium up t M$ 117 per reactr per incident. B$ Integral cntributin frm 104 perating reactrs in the USA. Abve B$ 12.6: Cngressinal liability: The value f the gvernment insurance subsidy is estimated at ~ M$ 1 per reactr-year (rder f magnitude) Nte: Nuclear liability plicies specifically exclude prperty damage t the nuclear facility itself Belw M$ 1: Operatr Belw M$ 375: Private Insurance Belw B$ 12.6: Industry selfinsurance Abve B$ 12.6: Cngressinal liability 7

8 Thank yu! 8

9 What is the unpaid liability? Illustratin based n Price-Andersn Act Define a prbability lss functin: Prbability (lss < L) = F(L), f(l) prbability density crrespnding t F(L) Thus: [Private Insurance plicy price] ($/yr) = M$375 M$1 F(L>B$ 12.6) = Prbability f having a lss superir t B$ 12.6 L f L dl F(M$ 375) The unpaid premium is then: [Unpaid Premium] = B$12.6 (L B$ 12.6) f L dl 9