RAMS. The International Symposium on Product Quality & Integrity. An Invitation To: Web: OUR

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1 Sponsoring Societies American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics American Society for Quaity Eectronics & Comm. Div. American Society for Quaity Reiabiity Division Institute of Eectrica & Eectronics Engrs Reiabiity Society Institute of Environmenta Sciences and Technoogy Institute of Industria Engineers Society of Automative Engineers Society Of Logistics Engineers Society of Reiabiity Engineers System Safety Society Participating Organizations ALSTOM Transportation, Inc. Ca Poy Pomona Ford Motor Co. HarCon Inc. IPS Group, Inc. James Madison Univ. Lockheed Martin NASA NASA/Catech Jet Propusion Lab. Northrop Grumman Noveus Systems Inc. Ops A La Carte, LLC PACCAR Radian, Inc. Raytheon Company ReiaSoft SAIC SBC Services, Inc. Scien-Tech Assoc Inc. Soomon Associates SRS Technoogies Teradyne US Army ARDEC US Army PM-Sodier United Space Aiance Univ. of Arkansas Univ. of South Caroina Univ. of South Forida Virginia Tech Xerox Corp. An Invitation To: RAMS The Internationa Symposium on Product Quaity & Integrity Web: OUR January 23-26, 2006 Newport Beach Marriott 900 Newport Center Drive Newport Beach, CA USA Fax IMPROVING PRODUCTS AND PROCESSES THROUGH EDUCATION

2 Genera Chair's Message Wecome to the 52 nd Annua Reiabiity and Maintainabiity Symposium (RAMS) The Internationa Symposium on Product Quaity and Integrity. This year s topic, The Roe of Reiabiity and Maintainabiity in Managing Risk, generated great interest and the Program Committee designed an exceent program to meet the theme. You have many opportunities to benefit from this year s program whether you are a ong time practitioner or new to the assurance sciences. In addition to 5 pane sessions, there are 21 tutorias and 26 paper sessions with over 120 papers. This year RAMS for the first time offers a program with 5 tracks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ron M. Adib RAMS is the premier forum in which R&M professionas share their experience, knowedge, and vision for the future. Learn how other organizations meet the chaenges of Managing Risk and increasing demands for more reiabe, more maintainabe, more supportabe, and safer products. Gain fresh insights from coeagues, industry and government eaders, and academia on a broad range of processes, toos and technoogies that are necessary to assure product quaity and integrity. Benefit from the successes and essons earned by others as you join us in this event. I encourage you to organize your week according to your particuar interests and the many exceent tutorias, paper and pane sessions, and exhibits offered in the program. The tutorias quaify for Continuing Education Unit (CEU) credit and are free with conference registration. You aso have an opportunity to take the American Society for Quaity (ASQ) Certified Reiabiity Engineer and Six Sigma Back Bet examinations. As part of your registration, you are aso admitted to the RAMS Exhibition where you may examine an outstanding trade show. On behaf of the 2006 RAMS Management Committee, Board of Directors, Advisory Board, Sponsors and Exhibitors, I invite you to participate fuy in this 52 nd anniversary event and enjoy a week of earning and new professiona reationships. Ron M. Adib 2006 RAMS Genera Chair (chair@rams.org) The Management Committee and Board of Directors gratefuy acknowedge our Corporate Sponsors. Diamond Leve Reex Software Corporation God Leve The Omnicon Group, Inc. Pan now to present a paper, tutoria or to attend the Year 2007 RAMS. For more information, visit our Web site at: 2

3 Registration Information Go to to register For RAMS 2006, a registration options wi be handed through the RAMS web site. Pease see page 27 for a the detais. Registration rates are: Registration Fees On-Line Discount Express On-site * Members of AIAA, ASQ, IEEE, IEST, IIE, SAE, SOLE, SRE, SSS $700 $850 * Nonmembers $800 $950 Student (Fu Time - Student ID required) $60 $60 One day registration n/a $500 See beow for mutipe registration discounts * Incudes Banquet, Proceedings, Tutoria Notes, and a paper, pane and tutoria sessions. Incudes Proceedings, Tutoria Notes, and a paper, pane and tutoria sessions. NOTICE Sunday, January 22, 2006 Symposium Registration Newport Beach Marriott Pacific Registration Desk 3:30 PM to 6:00 PM Avoid the Monday Morning Rush! Discount for Mutipe Registrations RAMS offers a 33% discount for mutipe On-Line Discount Registrations from the same organization. If you register six or more simutaneousy the Member Rate is $467 and the Non-Member Rate is $533. You get six RAMS registrations for the price of four! Pease contact Raymond Sears (contact information on the RAMS website and isted on page 27) for further information and to arrange for onine registration. RAMS aso offers a corporate registration for companies wishing to send mutipe attendees at different times. Pease contact Raymond Sears as described above for more information. Specia Trave Rates Specia discounted airfares for the 2006 Reiabiity & Maintainabiity Symposium in Newport Beach, CA on January 23-26, 2006 have been negotiated by IEEE Goba Trave Services. Pease see page 27 of this Program for additiona detais on rates and specia codes. Trave arrangements using the negotiated air carriers or the carriers of your choice can be made through IEEE Goba Trave Services by caing between the hours of 8:30 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. EST. Monday through Friday. Within the US and Canada, ca +1 (800) TRY-IEEE, ( ); and outside of the US and Canada, ca +1 (732) Or, you may visit their on-ine trave service web site at This secure site offers simpe and convenient service through which you can search, reserve, and ticket your trave anytime, anywhere. Hote Reservations A bock of rooms has been reserved at the Newport Beach Marriott. Request the Internationa Symposium on Product Quaity and Reiabiity or R&M Symposium (RAMS) rate when caing or writing. A imited number of government rate rooms wi be avaiabe. Hote reservations must be requested before January 10, Reservations must be guaranteed by deposit or credit card when making the reservation. The hote accepts most major credit cards. Deposits are refundabe if canceation is received by the hote before 6:00 PM on the day of arriva. Arrangements have been made at aternative hotes in the Newport Beach area in the case of over-booking at the Newport Beach Marriott. Rate and avaiabiity of the aternative hotes may be different than the Newport Beach Marriott. In the case of over-booking, reservations wi automaticay be assigned to the next cosest aternate hote. Pease ca the Newport Beach Marriott for hote confirmation and information. 3

4 RAMS Exhibition Every exhibitor has been carefuy seected with improved reiabiity, maintainabiity, quaity, and productivity in mind. A exhibits wi be ocated in the Newport Coast Baroom of the Newport Beach Marriott. Coffee breaks wi be hed in the exhibit area. The Exhibition is a vauabe component of the R&M Symposium as it provides information on products and services which can hep you do your job more efficienty. Even if you pan to attend every technica session, there wi sti be penty of time to visit the exhibits between sessions and during unch breaks. The Exhibition is schedued to be open at the foowing times: Monday, January 23, 5:00 PM 7:00 PM Tuesday, January 24, 9:00 AM 5:00 PM Wednesday, January 25, 9:00 AM 4:00 PM 2006 Exhibition Space Sti Avaiabe! At press time, there were sti a few booths avaiabe in the exhibit area for this years RAMS. Contact: RAMS EXHIBITION MANAGER; David F. Barber, Jr.; Scien-Tech Associates, Inc., P.O. Box 2097, Banner Ek, NC USA at , emai: dbarbsta@ao.com or by FAX at David can aso provide information on the Year 2007 RAMS Exhibition RAMS Exhibitors as of 11 Oct University of Maryand- Reiabiity Engineering Ops A La Carte University of Iinois-Technoogy Management PredictionProbe, Inc. Cockwork Soutions Futon Findings The Omnicon Group, Inc. Reex Software Corporation RELIASS ReiaSoft Corporation Spouses Hospitaity Suite The Spouses Hospitaity Suite is avaiabe for an informa gathering. Information wi be provided regarding tour information, shopping, dining, and paces of interest in the Newport Beach area. The Spouses Hospitaity Suite, ocated in Diamond Cove Room, wi be open from 7:30 AM through 5:00 PM Monday through Thursday. Coffee, tea and danish wi be provided at 8:00 AM each day. On Monday and Tuesday mornings from 8:00 AM unti 10:00 AM, we wi discuss the many activities avaiabe in Newport Beach and the surrounding area. The suite affords the opportunity for spouses to get together with one another to pan their day. Pease stop by; meet od friends and make some new ones. Newport Beach and the Los Angees area is rich in attractions and things to do. IEEE Continuing Education Units (CEUs) You can earn CEUs by attending our Tutorias and Workshops (0.1 CEU per hour). Simpy use a CEU competion form incuded with your Tutoria Notes. Compete the form according to the instructions, and return it to the registration desk at the concusion of the Symposium. Your CEU certificate wi be e-maied to you. The IEEE is an Authorized CEU Provider of the Internationa Association for Continuing Education and Training. IACET Provider # 1255 Job Posting Board This year the Symposium is sponsoring a job posting board on which openings in the assurance discipines can be posted. ANY business interested in describing its empoyment opportunities to the word s premier gathering of assurance professionas is asked to contact Raymond Sears at or by emai: r.w.sears@ieee.org. The buetin board wi be made avaiabe to a Symposium attendees. This is an extraordinary opportunity to get your empoyment message out! Emergency Information A Message Center wi be provided for the convenience of Symposium attendees. Messages for attendees may be eft between 8:00 AM and 5:00 PM during the Symposium by diaing and asking for the RAMS Symposium Message Center. A messages wi be posted at the Message Center ocated in the RAMS Registration area. ASQ Certified Reiabiity Engineer and Six Sigma Back Bet Examinations Specia arrangements have been made with the American Society for Quaity (ASQ) for attendees who so desire to take the ASQ CRE or Six Sigma examinations whie at the Symposium. These 4 hour examinations wi be hed on Thursday morning. On Tuesday, a 4 hour CRE Review workshop session wi be hed for the benefit of those who pan to take the CRE examinations or are thinking about taking it some time in the future, or are just curious. Advance registration wi guarantee a seat. Information about exam fees, registration and professiona prerequisites for this certification exam are avaiabe at the RAMS WEB site or by caing ASQ at Ask for customer service. The exam is open book. Pocket cacuators without programmabe memories are aowed. Registration for the CRE exam wi be accepted up to Wednesday Noon at the Symposium. Come to the RAMS Registration Desk to sign up for the CRE exam. There wi be no on-site registration for the Certified Six Sigma Back Bet exam due to affidavit vaidation. Refer to the RAMS website for additiona information. Appications for the RAMS exams are now ive and are at the foowing URL's: for the CRE Exam for the Six Sigma Exam. Hote Transportation There is an Airport Shutte. The shutte is for John Wayne/Orange County Airport ONLY. The shutte eaves the hote every hour on the hour beginning at 6:00am and the ast trip eaves the hote at 10:00pm The shutte picks up at the airport every hour on the haf hour, beginning at 6:30am and the ast pick-up is at 10:30pm The shutte pick up is outside Baggage Caim and across the street to the Taxi/Hote Shutte Pick-Up area. Pease be sure to ook for the Newport Beach Marriott van as there are a number of other Marriott hotes in Orange County. 4

5 Program Matrix Time Pacific Saon A/ B Pacific Saon C Pacific Saon E/ F Pacific Saon D Avaon Tutoria 1A Tutoria 1B Tutoria 1C Tutoria 1D 8:00-10:00 AM Reiabiity Program Panning for Commercia Environments Basic Reiabiity Markov-Chain Modeing and Anaysis Probabiistic Methods & Statistica Methods in Reiabiity Tutoria 2A Tutoria 2C Monday 10:15-12:15 PM 1:15-2:00 PM Six Sigma Process Improvement Opportunities Human Reiabiity Anaysis GENERAL CHAIR'S WELCOME AND KEYNOTE PACIFIC SALON C/D Tutoria 4A Tutoria 4B Tutoria 4C Workshop 4D 2:15-4:45 PM Reiabiity Growth Testing and Data Anaysis Software Reiabiity Introduction to Repairabe Systems Modeing R&M Exhibitor's Presentations & Demonstrations Session 5A Tutoria 5B Tutoria 5C Session 5D Tutoria 5E 8:00-10:00 AM Product Verification and Vaidation: When is Good. Good Enough? Panning and Performing Software FMEA Statistica Anaysis of Fied Data for Repairabe Systems Humans in the Loop: Managing Risk via Assessment and Mitigation of Human Factors Simuation Modeing for Reiabiity Anaysis Session 6A Session 6B Tutoria 6C Workshop 6D Session 6E 10:15-12:15 PM Emerging Technoogies and Trends Software Reiabiity and Testing Reiabiity from Product Design Inception to Product Retirement R&M Exhibitor's Presentations & Demonstrations New Product Life Anaysis Techniques to Optimizing Operationa Reiabiity Thursday Wednesday Tuesday Session 7A Session 7B Tutoria 7C Session 7D Tutoria 7E Reiabiity, Practica Data Improving Meet the Reiabiity Empirica Methods 1:30-3:30 PM Avaiabiity & Anaysis, Emerging Production through Facuties - Invited for Process and Prognostics, Return Toos and Reiabiity Using Session Equipment on Investment Techniques Avaiabe Information Condition Monitoring Session 8A Session 8B Tutoria 8C Pane 8D Session 8E Using Key Innovative Panning Understanding Preventive and Operationa Performance Techniques for Acceerated Life Predictive Reiabiity 3:45-5:45 PM Parameters (KPP) to Reiabiity and Testing Anaysis Maintenance - Requirements and Improve Reiabiity Maintainabiityy Necessary Evi or Optimization Vauabe Practice Session 9A Session 9B Tutoria 9C Pane 9D Session 9E Acceerated Life Innovative Weibu Anaysis: Logistics - Transition 21st Century Testing & Aging Approaches in Methodoogy, of Acquisition and Reiabiity 8:00-10:00 AM Maintainabiity and Appications, Sustainment of Approaches and Reiabiity Benefits and Pitfas Products and Tookits Services for the Department of Defense (DOD) Pane 10A SYMPOSIUM PANEL - RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY IN THE NEW FRONTIER 10:15-12:15 PM PACIFIC SALON C/D Session 11A Pane 11B Tutoria 11C Session 11D Session 11E Acceerated Life and Prognostics Heath OPTIMIZING Advances in Risk Innovations in 1:30-3:30 PM Acceerated Management (PHM) MAINTENANCE Assessment Hierarchica Reiabiity Growth AND Anaysis and Testing REPLACEMENT Modeing DECISIONS Pane 12A Session 12B Tutoria 12C Session 12D Session 12E Achieving R & M for Maintainabiity, Lessons Learned for Risk Assessment: Innovations in the Army's Future Maintenance and Effective FMEAs Appications Faiure and Faut 3:45-5:45 PM Combat System Panning - Anaysis Approaches to Rea Word Avaiabiity Improvement 6:30-7:30 PM GENERAL RECEPTION - ATTRIUM 7:30-9:30 PM SYMPOSIUM BANQUET - GRAND PACIFIC BALLROOM Session 13A Session 13B Tutoria 13C Session 13D Designing Safety Process Risk Management Component 8:00-10:00 AM and Reiabiity into Improvements and Reiabiity Space Systems New Techniques in Enhancement Systems Safety Techniques Session 14A Session 14B Tutoria 14C Session 14D Managing Risk in Designing Reiabiity Faut Tree Anaysis Reiabiity-Driven 10:15-12:15 PM Aerospace Business into Large Scae Using Binary Product Design Practices Petrochemica Decision Diagrams Systems - Invited Sessiont Registration at the Pacific Registration Desk. Sunday 3:30 to 6:00 PM Monday 7:00 AM to 6:00 PM Tuesday 7:00 AM to 5:00 PM Wednesday 7:00 AM to 3:30 PM Thursday 7:00 AM to 12:30 PM Exhibits wi be in the Newport Coast Baroom. 5

6 MONDAY SCHEDULE 8:00 AM 10:00 AM, Monday Tutoria 1A INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon A/B RELIABILITY PROGRAM PLANNING FOR COMMERCIAL ENVIRONMENTS James A. Hough, Pitney Bowes This tutoria describes the deveopment and impementation of a reiabiity program pan for commercia products that do not carry specific requirements or mandates from reiabiity programs. This tutoria focuses on the engineering anayses and activities that govern the inherent reiabiity of products. 8:00 AM 12:15 AM, Monday Tutoria 1B INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon C BASIC RELIABILITY Dr. Kaiash C. Kapur, University of Washington This basic tutoria on reiabiity: design, engineering, testing and management covers an introduction and review of reiabiity methods that can be used throughout the LCC of the system. It wi cover the foowing topics: Introduction to reiabiity and some goba perspectives, reiabiity measures usefu in industry, system reiabiity, reiabiity activities during the design and deveopment phase, reiabiity estimation and the design and management of RAM process and its impementation. Tutoria 1D INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon D PROBABILISTIC METHODS AND STATISTICAL METHODS IN RELIABILITY Dr. David W. Coit, Rutgers University This tutoria introduces probabiistic ifetime modes and statistica methods for reiabiity modeing. Series systems, parae systems, k-out-of-n systems, minima path sets and minima cut sets are some of the topics addressed. Statistica methods that can be appied to a compete or right-censored data set wi be emphasized. 8:00 AM 10:00 AM, Monday Tutoria 1C INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon E/F MARKOV-CHAIN MODELING AND ANALYSIS Dr. Lisa M. Maiart, Case Western Reserve University and Dr. Edward A. Poh, University of Arkansas Markov chains are a cass of stochastic processes that can be used to mode a wide variety of issues reated to reiabiity and maintainabiity. This tutoria covers the fundamenta concepts of discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains and some advanced concepts reated to Markov modeing and decision-making. 10:15 AM 12:15 PM, Monday Tutoria 2A SPECIAL TOPIC Pacific Saon A/B SIX SIGMA PROCESS IMPROVEMENT OPPORTUNITIES Dr. Samue J. Keene, Seagate Technoogy The Six Sigma process improves product reiabiity by focusing attention on defining, measuring, anayzing, improving and controing the process. The anayses and supporting graphica toos used in each phase are discussed. Tutoria 2C INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon E/F HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS Joseph R. Fragoa, PE, SAIC This tutoria provides an awareness of the foowing aspects of human reiabiity: appropriate parameters, data sources, design toos, prediction methods, tests, verification toos and issues. The materia is intended to acquaint the audience with the principa features of the concepts and toos, not to provide a computationa proficiency. 1:15 PM 2:00 PM, Monday GENERAL CHAIR S WELCOME AND KEYNOTE ADDRESS Pacific Saon C/D HIGHER RELIABILITY & IMPROVEMENTS IN MAINTAINABILITY LEAD TO LOWER LIFE CYCLE COSTS: FACT OR FICTION Automakers have demonstrated that improving maintainabiity and reiabiity of automobies is not ony possibe but can yied much ower operating and support costs of their vehices within the warranty period. LTG Yakovac wi expore the chaenges and costs of improving reiabiity and maintainabiity of weapon systems and whether increased readiness and ower ife cyce costs are worth the investment. Genera Chair Ron M. Adib, RMA Consuting Keynote Speaker Lieutenant Genera Joseph L. Yakovac, Jr., Miitary Deputy to the Assistant cretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technoogy (AL&T) Commissioned in the Infantry upon graduation from the United States Miitary Academy, Lieutenant Genera Yakovac has served in a variety of command and staff positions at company grade through genera officer ranks. He was a Patoon Leader, Executive Officer and Company Commander in mechanized infantry units. Foowing these assignments, Lieutenant Genera Yakovac earned a Master of Science degree in Mechanica Engineering from the University of Coorado. He subsequenty served as an Assistant Professor at the United States Miitary Academy. LTG Yakovac, Jr. Lieutenant Genera Yakovac s fied grade assignments incude Executive Officer and Branch Chief, Bradey Project Office; Brigade Logistics Officer, Brigade Operations Officer, and Battaion Executive Officer, US Army Europe; Staff Officer, Armor/Anti-Armor Task Force, Office of the Chief of Staff, Army; Mechanized Infantry Battaion Commander; Director, Weapons Systems Management Directorate, US Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command; and Project Manager, Bradey Fighting Vehice System. 6

7 Prior to Lieutenant Genera Yakovac s position as the MILDEP, which he assumed in November 03, he served most recenty as the Program Executive Officer, Ground Combat and Support Systems, now known as Ground Combat Systems, and as Deputy for Systems Acquisition, US Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM). Before going to TACOM, his ast position in the Pentagon was the Assistant Deputy for Systems Management and Horizonta Technoogy Integration, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army (Acquisition, Logistics and Technoogy). Lieutenant Genera Yakovac is a graduate of the Armor Officer Advanced Course, the Army Command and Genera Staff Coege, the Defense Systems Management Coege and the Industria Coege of the Armed Forces. He wears the Expert Infantry Badge, the Ranger Tab, the Parachutist Badge as we as the Distinguished Service Meda, three Legions of Merit and seven awards of the Army Meritorious Service Meda. 2:15 PM 4:45 PM, Monday Tutoria 4A INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon A/B RELIABILITY GROWTH TESTING AND DATA ANALYSIS Dr. Larry H. Crow, Crow Reiabiity Resources, Inc. This tutoria addresses modes and procedures to assess reiabiity growth during deveopment testing and in-service customer use. Methods usefu in assessing and managing a reiabiity growth program are aso discussed. Tutoria 4B INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon C SOFTWARE RELIABILITY THROUGH DOE Dr. Madhav S. Phadke, Phadke Associates Inc. Software reiabiity has three distinct aspects: how buid reiabiity into the product, how to test the product, and how to measure the faiure rate. Robust Testing, the focus of this tutoria, focuses attention on the usage of the software, and uses orthogona arrays to span the entire operating domain uniformy, and with a minimum number of test cases. It reduces the testing cost, product introduction deays, and sends fewer fauts to the fied. Tutoria 4C INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon E/F INTRODUCTION TO REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS MODELING Dr. C. Richard Cassady, University of Arkansas This tutoria is an introduction to the basic concepts of modeing repairabe systems. The common assumptions and modeing approaches empoyed in maintenance modeing and optimization are emphasized. Some eve of mathematica sophistication is required, however, the mathematica theory and derivations are not the focus of this tutoria. Workshop 4D Pacific Saon D R&M EXHIBITORS PRESENTATIONS AND DEMONSTRATIONS Moderator: Thomas L. Brogan, Raytheon Company R&M CAE toos continue to evove in support of industry s business processes. Our RAMS Exhibitors wi highight their atest functionaity through brief presentations and appication demonstrations in a neutra setting. Pease check outside the room for the vendor presentation schedue. TUESDAY SCHEDULE 8:00 AM 1:30 PM, Tuesday Workshop Copper Cove REVIEW SESSION FOR ASQ CRE EXAM This session is for the benefit of those attendees who are registered to take the ASQ CRE Examination or are considering taking this examination this week or some time in the future, or are simpy curious. Experts in the reiabiity fied wi review examination materia. For registration information, refer to page 4. 8:00 AM 10:00 AM, Tuesday Session 5A PRODUCT VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION: WHEN IS GOOD. GOOD ENOUGH? Moderator: Ken Schmidt, Optim Associates An oveview of recent advances in reiabiity testing incuding case studies. Pacific Saon A/B 5A1 5A2 A STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF PROGNOSTIC ERRORS ON SYSTEM PERFORMANCE Mauricio Carrasco and Dr. C. Richard Cassady, University of Arkansas The chaenge associated with prognostics is deveoping a system assessment mechanism that is both economicay feasibe and statisticay vaid as a means of predicting remaining system ife. Our focus is on the second aspect of this chaenge statistica errors. Once a system assessment has been made, the data taken from the system must be converted using some agorithm into an estimate of the system s remaining ife. VIRTUAL VALIDATION AND VERIFICATION OF A PRODUCT SPECIFICATION Muchiu Chang, Ching Yun University Because a product design approach suffers from risks in schedue and cost during the traditiona prototype buiding vaidation and verification (V&V) and acks a over-a picture of the product at its concept design stage when no actua hardware and software are avaiabe in hand, we propose an integrated virtua method to vaidate and verify the performance and the cost effectiveness of a new product design simutaneousy by using mathematica mode. 7

8 5A3 5A4 5A5 5A6 PRODUCT RELIABILITY VALIDATION AND CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT AT GE ENERGY Dr. Randoph Phiips, Genera Eectric Company The GE Energy portfoio of products has expanded over the ast ten years from traditiona heavy duty gas and steam turbines to incude a broad spectrum of technoogies incuding wind turbines, sensors, contros, energy management systems, reciprocating engines, compressors and more. To ensure future New Product Introduction programs meet their reiabiity targets requires designers have the benefit of a past essons earned. This requires a discipined approach to fied data coection. A BEHAVIOR-BASED PROCESS FOR EVALUATING AVAILABILITY ACHIEVEMENT RISK USING STOCHASTIC ACTIVITY NETWORKS Tod Courtney and Dr. Wiiam H. Sanders, University of Iinois at Urbana Champaign With increased focus on the avaiabiity performance of compex, mutifunction systems, modeing processes and anaytica toos are needed that hep the Avaiabiity Systems Engineer to understand the impact of architectura and ogistics support choices on system avaiabiity. This paper describes a two-part avaiabiity performance estimation methodoogy that starts with a description of the system s compex avaiabiity reated behavior and then cacuates an estimate of avaiabiity. ACCESSIBLE FORMAL VERIFICATION FOR SAFETY-CRITICAL HARDWARE DESIGN Dr. John Lach, University of Virginia, Thuy Nguyen and Patrick Saaun, Eectricite de France This paper presents work on the deveopment of a technique to make forma verification more accessibe to specification and design engineers by creating a ibrary that abstracts the forma domain into a verified set of basic operations and components. MANAGING RISK BY EXTRACTING MANAGEMENT INFORMATION AND DESIGN FEED BACK FROM FIELD FAILURE DATA Vater Lo, Nokia Mobie Phones R&D With short product deveopment time and high reiabiity for modern products, precise estimates of the reiabiity of a product can often ony be based on fied data. Accumuated faiure curves based on superimposed renewa process have been known for 20 years but are not widey used. This simpe method gives vauabe information for top management as we as design feedback. Tutoria 5B INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon C PLANNING AND PERFORMING SOFTWARE FMEA Nathanie Ozarin, The Omnicon Group, Inc. Faiure Mode Effects Anayses have proven to be an effective method for improving the reiabiity of hardware systems but many sti consider software FMEAs to be probematic. This tutoria provides a proven methodoogy and a detaied exampe for panning and performing software FMEAs. Tutoria 5C INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon E/F STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FIELD DATA FOR REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS Dr. David C. Trindade and Dr. Swami Nathan, Sun Microsystems Inc. This tutoria presents modern techniques of statistica anaysis of fied data usefu for characterizing reiabiity behavior of repairabe systems. The imitations of using summary statistics, such as MTBF, are reviewed and modern methods that can incude the anaysis of time dependent reiabiity are presented. Data requirements and actua fied data exampes are incuded. Session 5D Pacific Saon D HUMANS IN THE LOOP: MANAGING RISK VIA ASSESSMENT AND MITIGATION OF HUMAN FACTORS Moderator: Joseph R. Fragoa, PE, SAIC Humans are highy reiabe as a system, but invove many faiure modes that are chaenge to mitigate. This session wi provide insight into human reiabiity and how human input to a system can be optimized. 5D1 5D2 5D3 5D4 CUSTOMER FEEDBACK BEFORE MARKET RELEASE: A CASE STUDY Dr. Vaia T. Petkova, Dr. Peter C. Sander, and Yuan Lu, Eindhoven University of Technoogy This paper concerns the verification and vaidation of products. In particuar for innovative products it is neary impossibe to foresee a quaity and reiabiity probems that may show up in the fied. If the technica root cause of a fied probem zcan be ocated, the manufacturer might be abe to improve the product. Therefore fied feedback is indispensabe. HUMAN RELIABILITY ISSUES IN MEDICAL CARE - A CUSTOMER VIEWPOINT Aron Bra, SRS Technoogies Significant pubicity has recenty been given to deaths, incorrect treatments, etc. in America s hospitas due to human error. This paper is not a critique of diagnosis or treatment decisions, but of management and communication systems used in determining and impementing diagnoses and treatments. COGNITIVE MODELING OF UNDERGROUND MINERS RESPONSE TO ACCIDENTS Dr. Surendra Mohan and Dayse Cavacanti de Lemos Duarte, Federa University of Pernambuco The scope of this paper is to dea with human error to prepare a cyce and a matrix of various human and other existing factors and a cognitive mode for miners working in underground mines under unnatura and hazardous environmenta conditions having the constant fear of accidents. RISK ASSESSMENT WHEN MALEVOLENT ACTIONS ARE INVOLVED Dr. Terry F. Bott and Stephen W. Eisenhawer, Los Aamos Nationa Laboratory When maevoent intention is the primary cause of oss, the reative probabiity of the different scenarios is dependent on the adversary s knowedge, capabiities, and objectives and on the protective or mitigating measures in pace to protect the target. Incusion of these factors in the risk anaysis requires some extension of the traditiona techniques. 8

9 Tutoria Session 5E INTERMEDIATE Avaon SIMULATION MODELING FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS Dr. Edward F. Mykytka and Dr. Joseph R. Litko, University of Dayton This tutoria introduces simuation as a reiabiity modeing method. Specia emphasis is paced on the statistica aspects of anayzing simuation output. On competion of this tutoria, a reiabiity practitioner shoud know the fundamentas of simuation and be abe to assess the merits of pursuing simuation as a modeing option. 10:15 AM 12:15 PM, Tuesday Session 6A Pacific Saon A/B EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND TRENDS Moderator: Joseph A. Dzekevich, Raytheon Company This session presents the atest RMA techniques in areas of probabiistic risk assessment, Petri nets, vunerabiity discovery and nanotechnoogy safety. 6A1 6A2 6A3 6A4 6A5 EMERGING PROBABILISTIC TECHNOLOGY AND ITS APPLICATION TO RELIABILITY PREDICTION AND RISK ASSESSMENT Mohammad R. Khaessi, Hong-Zong Li, PredictionProbe, Inc., Robert Kuper and Anthony D Angeo, U.S. Army ARDEC This paper describes the use of Probabiistic Design methodoogies that considers both statistica and physica aspects of a process taking into account uncertainty and risk, thus providing more accurate resuts and efficiencies whie aso reducing costs. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE ABOUT NANOTECHNOLOGY SAFETY Koushik Datta, Christopher B. Witsee and Anthony Briceno, NASA Ames Nanotechnoogies are showing up in industria, medica and miitary appications without any current safety reguations. This paper discusses the current knowedge about the safety of nanomaterias. STOCHASTIC PETRI NETS MODELING USING SPN Dr. Vitai Voovoi, Georgia Institute of Technoogy This paper introduces SPN@, a too for the graphica modeing of intricate dynamics scenarios reevant to safety, reiabiity, and avaiabiity. The SPN@ methodoogy is a nove concept of aging tokens, enhancing Coored Stochastic Petri Net formaism and providing a visua and practica means for assessing these scenarios. QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR DEPENDENT VULNERABILITIES Dr. Mehmet Sahinogu, Troy State University This paper introduces a Security Meter design anaysis technique that offers a quick way of cacuating a system s software risk to attack that is practica and simpe to use for a beginner. PREDICTION CAPABILITIES OF VULNERABILITY DISCOVERY MODELS Omar H. Ahazmi and Dr. Yashwant K. Maaiya, Coorado State University Security vunerabiities on operating systems have emerged as major threats. This paper examines the prediction capabiity, imitations of and computationa approaches of vunerabiity discovery modes. Session 6B Pacific Saon C SOFTWARE RELIABILITY AND TESTING Moderator: Dr. Liudong Xing, University of Massachusetts This session covers different eements of software reiabiity, incuding setting up requirement, panning test and appying statistica testing to software reiabiity. 6B1 6B2 6B3 6B4 RESOURCE ALLOCATION MODELS FOR SOFTWARE MODULE TESTING Dr. Ravindra B. Misra and Rani Rajan, Indian Institute of Technoogy This paper presents a mathematica formuation to obtain the faiure rate of a moduar software system by considering faut correction as we as faut detection activities. Further, this paper focuses on soving optima testing resource aocation probems using the proposed faiure rate mode. THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL TESTING TO SMART SENSOR SOFTWARE Sike Kuba, Juio Cesar Gaardo, and John May, University of Bristo This paper ooks at the use of statistica testing techniques on smart devices that might find use in the nucear industry. OPTIMAL TESTING RESOURCE ALLOCATION MODELS FOR MODULAR SOFTWARE Rani Rajan and Dr. Ravindra B. Misra, Indian Institute of Technoogy This paper proposes a generic cost function, which incorporates faiure cost as a quaity measure. BETTER SOFTWARE RELIABILITY BY GETTING THE REQUIREMENTS RIGHT Dr. John B. Bowes, University of South Caroina For too ong software has been produced using processes that resut in a product that is competed ate, over-budget, and beow the quaity expectations of end users; getting the requirements right the first time, is the key to buiding reiabe software products. 9

10 Tutoria 6C INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon E/F RELIABILITY FROM PRODUCT DESIGN INCEPTION TO PRODUCT RETIREMENT Dr. Duane L. Dietrich, ReiaSoft In this tutoria an outine of a cohesive structure for reiabiity testing throughout a product s ife cyce is presented. In this structure the design of each successive test is based on anaysis, expert opinion, past data obtained from simiar products in the fied, and data from earier tests. The appropriate ocation and use of severa different reiabiity tests are discussed and the impementation of engineering change orders to fieded units to reduce faiures is covered. Workshop 6D Pacific Saon D R&M EXHIBITOR PRESENTATIONS & DEMONSTRATIONS Moderator: Thomas L. Brogan, Raytheon Company R&M CAE toos continue to evove in support of industry s business practices. Our RAMS Exhibitors wi highight their atest functionaity through brief presentations and appication demonstrations in a neutra setting. Pease check outside the room for the vendor presentation schedues. Session 6E NEW PRODUCT LIFE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO OPTIMIZING OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY Moderator: Richard J. Rudy, VEXTEC Consutant Advances in reiabiity anaysis incuding case studies. Avaon 6E1 6E2 6E3 6E4 6E5 LIFE MANAGEMENT OF POWER PLANT EQUIPMENT AT GE ENERGY Dr. Randoph Phiips, Genera Eectric Company To better manage and cap the ife cyce cost risk of operating a power pant using a heavy-duty gas turbine, owners and OEMs have found mutua benefit is ong-term service agreements mosty centered on the high vaue gas turbine capita parts. To manage these agreements and reaize optima cost productivity over the ife of the contract requires a commitment to a ife management program that continuay improves the OEMs abiity to accuratey predict residua ife. PROTOCOL: AN ON-LINE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDUCING PRODUCT RELIABILITY RISK Preston MacDiarmid, David Mahar, Quanterion Soutions Incorporated, Jessica Gover and Wyatt E. Shanke, Army Aviation and Missie RD&E Center Miitary program offices and commercia product deveopers are chaenged to make effective reiabiity decisions throughout product/systems deveopment, acquisition, production and operation/maintenance phases. The decisions range from determining what reiabiity goas/requirements are appropriate to meet user s mission needs and market demands to seecting the most cost effective means to assess whether the system reiabiity is adequate to pass through various program decision gates. PREDICTING REMAINING USEFUL LIFE OF AN INDIVIDUAL UNIT USING PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL Haitao Liao, Wichita State University Reiabiity of an individua unit during fied use is critica in fied appications such as turbine engines, ife-maintaining systems and civi engineering structures. The residua ife of the unit indicates its abiity of surviving the usage in the future. In recent years, the residua ife prediction in service receives increasing attention. When initia faiure indication has been detected, it is essentia to estimate the residua ife accuratey. FATIGUE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK FOR FLEET MANAGEMENT USING BAYESIAN NETWORKS Tony J. Rosqvist, Keijo Koski, VTT Industria Systems, and Asak Sijander, VTT Industria Systems, Aircraft Structures The aim of the paper is to introduce a fatigue anaysis framework to support the management of a feet of aircraft. The chaenge faced by the feet manager is to organize and manage the feet such that operationa and training objectives are met whie at the same time constraints reated to a safety of fight, feet avaiabiity, maintenance actions and maintenance costs, and panned Out of Service Date are compied with. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MECHATRONIC SYSTEMS USING CENSORING DATA AND PETRI NETS: APPLICA- TION ON AN ANTILOCK BRAKE SYSTEM Ain Mihaache, Mihaea Barreau, Aexis Todoskoff and Prof. Fabrice Guerin, I.S.T.I.A - LASQUO Mechatronic systems have a potentia impact on peope s safety and technoogica progress increases not ony their performance but aso their importance. Therefore, the reiabiity anaysis is a very important engineering issue, in order to guarantee their functiona behavior. Since these systems are very compex to study, the evauation of their reiabiity is extremey difficut. 1:30 AM 3:30 PM, Tuesday Session 7A Pacific Saon A/B RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY & PROGNOSTICS, RETURN ON INVESTMENT Moderator: Dennis R. Hoffman, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Product reiabiity is a seing point, and thus a financia benefit. Companies that understand this are successfu. Since financia terms are the anguage of management, reiabiity needs to express their performance parameters in financia terms to aid in management buy-in and acceptance. These papers wi provide insight into what has worked and may work for you. 7A1 OPTIMAL RELIABILITY AND PRICE CHOICES FOR PRODUCTS UNDER WARRANTY Zhi-Jie Liu, Daian University of Technoogy, Dr. Hong-Zhong Huang, Northwestern University, and Dr. D. N. P. Murthy, The University of Queensand An optima reiabiity and warranty strategy mode aows for achievement of the argest profit under a free repacement warranty strategy. 10

11 7A2 7A3 7A4 7A5 AVAILABILITY GUARANTEES AND PHYSICAL ASSETS MANAGEMENT: EMPHIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT OF SOME UNDERLYING FACTORS Kari Komonen, Technica Research Centre of Finand, and Dr. Heena Korteainen, VTT Industria Systems Avaiabiity performance of production industria machinery is very critica which has raised the demand for higher reiabiity and for avaiabiity guarantees during equipment acquisition. PREDICTION OF WARRANTY RISK AND LIFE DISTRIBUTION BASED UPON EARLY WARRANTY DATA Dustin Adridge, Dephi Corporation, Energy & Chassis Division Phiosophy and approach, supported by case studies, of warranty data anaysis is utiized to predict risk and to drive earier action. PROGNOSTICS FOR ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT - AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE Dr. Herbert Hecht, SoHaR Inc. Prognostics have been successfuy appied in various sectors but one area, eectronic equipment, athough extremey desirabe, present numerous obstaces. APPLICATION OF PROACTIVE QUALITY METHODS TO INCREASE BUSINESS VALUE Suhei M. Nassar, IBM Corporation Appication of proactive methodoogies during deveopment provide opportunities to save significant costs whie sti improving product design, quaity, and customer satisfaction. Session 7B Pacific Saon C PRACTICAL DATA ANALYSIS, EMERGING TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES Moderator: Harod E. Ascher, Harod E. Ascher & Associates This session provides a variety of new toos and techniques for anayzing repairabe system data, muti-state systems as we as some new distributiona forms usefu to today s reiabiity anayst. 7B1 7B2 7B3 7B4 7B5 SUMS, PRODUCTS AND RATIOS FOR SOME J-SHAPED DISTRIBUTIONS Meijian Zhou, Dong Won Yang, Yi Wang, and Saraees Nadarajah, University of Nebraska This paper expores the use and appicabiity of the J-shaped distribution as a mode of faiure data. PRACTICAL METHODS FOR THE MODELING OF REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS WITH TIME TREND AND REPAIR EFFECT Huairui Guo, ReiaSoft Corporation, Dr. Wenbiao Zhao, American Express, and Adamantios Mettas, ReiaSoft Corporation A practica mode based on the Proportiona Intensity (PI) mode is presented for anayzing repairabe systems. This mode overcomes the drawbacks of traditiona modes and can be easiy extended to reiabiity growth modeing. The authors demonstrate their approach using two different case studies. A NEW MODELING APPROACH DYNAMIC RELIABILITY BLOCK DIAGRAMS Savatore Distefano and Dr. Liudong Xing, University of Massachusetts A new modeing too is proposed that extends, and enhances the existing reiabiity bock diagramming formaisms. The capabiities of this new too are iustrated using a DRBD mode of a computer system. THE APPLICATION OF THE BOX-TIDWELL TRANSFORMATION IN RELIABILITY MODELING Toby Joyce, Be Labs Research Ireand, Dr. John Donovan, Institute of Technoogy, and Dr. Eamonn Murphy, University of Limerick This paper takes an origina approach to fitting data to the power aw mode by using regression techniques such as the Box-Tidwe transformation. PRIOR SPECIFICATION FOR MULTI-FAILURE MODE WEIBULL RELIABILITY MODELS Dr. Frank J. Groen, Prediction Technoogies, Inc. and Dr. Enrique Lopez Droguett, Federa University of Pernambuco This paper presents a procedure for the specification of informed prior distributions for a mode in which the system reiabiity is modeed as a set of competing faiure modes. Tutoria 7C INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon E/F IMPROVING PRODUCTION THROUGH RELIABILITY USING AVAILABLE INFORMATION Aron Bra, SRS Technoogies This tutoria describes a sequentia set of methodoogies that can be appied to manufacturing processes for the purpose of improving the reiabiity and avaiabiity of production equipment. Key parts of this tutoria incude identifying types of data the at are readiy avaiabe and issues reated to impementing corrective actions. Pan now to present a paper, tutoria or to attend the Year 2007 RAMS. For more information, visit our Web site at: 11

12 Session 7D Pacific Saon D MEET THE RELIABILITY FACULTIES - INVITED SESSION Moderator: Dr. Duane L. Dietrich, ReiaSoft There are a haf a dozen or so reiabiity facuty that we a know and that have been around for a ong time. This session is dedicated to show casing some of the newer reiabiity facuty in the major reiabiity academic programs within the US. 7D1 7D2 7D3 7D4 A COMPARISON OF ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING DESIGNS WITHIN A SINGLE BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK Dr. J. Rene van Dorp, Dr. Thomas A. Mazzuchi and Dr. Jorge E. Garciduenas, The George Washington University This paper extends the origina research work done by Van Dorp and Mazzuchi where a step stress acceerated ife testing metroogy was used to test for the faiures of components, subsystems, and systems. This extension ampifies the appication of Bayesian modeing to compare various other stress patterns. MODELING LOW PROBABILITY/HIGH CONSEQUENCE EVENTS: AN AVIATION SAFETY RISK MODEL James T. Luxhoj and Dr. David W. Coit, Rutgers University Faiure events that occur with a very ow probabiity, but with extreme consequences, presents an interesting modeing chaenge because of the scarcity of representative empirica data. An Aviation System Risk Mode, based on Bayesian beief networks, is introduced to assess the impact of new technoogy insertions or products designed to mitigate the ikeihood or consequence of aviation accidents. UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT FOR AVAILABILITY: IMPORTANCE MEASURE Mehmet Miman and Dr. Edward A. Poh, University of Arkansas This paper deveops and iustrates a system avaiabiity importance measure that considers the impact of a components variance. This variance importance measure wi enabe test engineers and designers to prioritize their improvement actions by aocating resources to various components in a system more effectivey. RESEARCH IN SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ENGINEERING Dr. Caro Sophie Smidts, University of Maryand The paper summarizes research advances in software reiabiity modeing, integration of software risk in probabiistic risk assessment for arge technoogica systems and automation of software reiabiity-based testing and discusses open questions reated to these research areas Tutoria 7E INTERMEDIATE Avaon EMPIRICAL METHODS FOR PROCESS AND EQUIPMENT CONDITION MONITORING Dr. J. Wesey Hines, The University of Tennessee This tutoria addresses the genera principes of condition-based maintenance from data coection to mode deveopment to impementation. The discussion of the principes of condition-based maintenance is suppemented with presentation of industria case studies. 3:45 AM 5:45 PM, Tuesday Session 8A Pacific Saon A/B USING KEY PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS (KPP) TO IMPROVE RELIABILITY Moderator: Anthony J. DiVenti, NASA Goddard Spacefight Center The use of metrics to quantify and evauate Reiabiity & Maintainabiity characteristics has provided great insight into design, operationa and other factors that impact systems throughout the ife cyce. This session identifies Key Performance Parameters (KPP) (metrics) that have been estabished in appications and have resuted in the impementation of significant changes and improvements to processes, services and products. 8A1 8A2 8A3 8A4 RELIABILITY INDEX - A METHOD TO PREDICT FAILURE RATE AND MONITOR MATURITY OF MOBILE PHONES Dr. U. Daya Perera, Nokia UK Ltd A methodoogy for the assessment of product maturity and estimation of faiure rates based on eectronic, mechanica, environmenta and eectromagnetic factors is presented. A STRUCTURED METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING PERFORMANCE METRICS AND MONITORING MAINTE- NANCE EFFECTIVENESS Maria Mercedes Amoedo and Dr. Mohammad Modarres, University of Maryand A new approach to maintenance management based on the Baanced Scorecard methodoogy. USEFUL METRICS FOR MANAGING FAILURE MODE CORRECTIVE ACTION Dr. Larry H. Crow, Crow Reiabiity Resources, Inc. A discussion of the methods and metrics used to define, impement and assess a management strategy for corrective actions. DYNAMIC RELIABILITY INDICES COMPUTATION FOR PARALLEL, SERIES AND K-OUT-OF-N MULTI-STATE SYSTEM BY STRUCTURE FUNCTION Dr. Eena Zaitseva and Vitay Levashenko, University of Ziina A method of cacuating performance measures for Muti-State Systems (MSS) is presented. Session 8B Pacific Saon C INNOVATIVE PLANNING TECHNIQUES FOR RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Moderator: Dr. David W. Coit, Rutgers University A pot-pourri of toos and techniques are presented that are designed to assist R&M engineers in panning and anayzing their R&M efforts. 12

13 8B1 8B2 8B3 8B4 8B5 BAYESIAN MODEL FOR EARLY RELIABILITY PREDICTION Dr. Roxana A. Ion, J. (Hans) Kaishoek, Dimitrios M. Karydas, and Iuian Nitescu, Eindhoven University of Technoogy This paper provides a Bayesian mode for estimating the faiure probabiity in the fied, eary after a product has been introduced to the market. The mode is demonstrated using fied data and is shown to provide a more accurate prediction with ess uncertainty as updated information becomes avaiabe. AN APPROACH TO RELIABILITY GROWTH PLANNING BASED ON FAILURE MODE DISCOVERY AND CORREC- TION USING AMSAAS PROJECTION MODEL Dr. Pau M. Ener and J. Brian Ha, U.S. AMSAA Exact expressions for the expected number of surfaced faiure modes and system faiure intensity as functions of test time are presented under the assumption that the surfaced modes are mitigated through corrective actions. TOTAL LEAST SQUARES ANALYSIS FOR RELIABILITY MODELING OF WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION Rex Wang, Heios Chen and L. W. Chen, Nationa Cheng Kung University A new tota east squares anaysis method that aows measuration errors and uncertainties in ifetime observations is deveoped. To avoid the time consuming singuar vaue decomposition agorithm reguary empoyed by the TLS anaysis, cosed-form soutions of the panar (2D) cases are derived using the Lagrange mutipier. USING MARKOV MODELS TO COMPUTE PFDAVE WHEN REPAIR TIMES ARE NOT EXPONENTIALLY DISTRIB- UTED Dr. Juia V. Bukowski, Vianova University Markov modes for assessing safety system performance usuay assume repair times are exponentiay distributed, but generay they are not. This paper compares resuts for exponentia and non-exponentia repair times and indicates when the exponentia assumption can be vaidy used. A NEW METHOD OF SYSTEM RELIABILITY OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHM Dr. Hong-Zhong Huang, Northwestern University, Jian Qu, Daian University of Technoogy, Dr. Ming J. Zuo, University of Aberta, and Wei Chen, Northwestern University A muti-objective optimization agorithm for soving a mixed-integer programming probem that normay arises in system-reiabiity design is proposed. The agorithm uses a genetic agorithm based on Pareto tournament and equivaence sharing, and a popuationbased constraint handing method. Tutoria 8C INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon E/F UNDERSTANDING ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING ANALYSIS Panteis Vassiiou and Adamantios Mettas, ReiaSoft Corporation Correct anaysis of data gathered from testing products under high-stress conditions provides important information for predicting and improving their ife under use-stress conditions. This tutoria provides an introduction to the area of acceerated ife testing. A number of practica exampes are provided. Pane 8D Pacific Saon D PREVENTIVE AND PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE - NECESSARY EVIL OR VALUABLE PRACTICE Moderator: Richard J. Rudy,VEXTEC Consutant A ivey discussion among experts of the necessity and vaue of performing Preventive and Predictive Maintenance in the Manufacturing environment. Paneists: Wiiam F. Hagen, Ford Motor Company Dr. Leonard Lamberson, Western Michigan University Danie M. Deans, SRS Technoogies Michea Morse, American Institute of Quaity Session 8E Avaon OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY REQUIREMENTS AND OPTIMIZATION Moderator: Todd Heydt, GE Heathcare Recenty deveoped methods and simuation techniques, from system reiabiity prediction to aocation, are appied to Internet Service Provider networks, distributed eectric power systems, and other professiona fieds. 8E1 8E2 8E3 ENHANCING ISP NETWORK RELIABILITY BY INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK OFMULTI-OBJECTIVE GENETIC ALGORITHM AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION Dohoon Kim, Kyung Hee University It deas with an appication of genetic agorithm to a muti-criteria decision context where not ony cost-effective but aso reiabe Internet network shoud be configured. NEW ALLOCATION METHODS FOR REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS Dr. Suprasad V. Amari and Vaishai Hegde, Reex Software Corporation This paper offers reiabiity engineers practica methods to achieve avaiabiity goas of repairabe systems using aocations. FAULT TOLERANCE ADAPTATION REQUIREMENTS VS. QUALITY-OF-SERVICE, REALTIME AND SECURITY IN DYNAMIC DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS Rodica Tirtea, Dr. Geert Deconinck, and Ronnie J. M. Bemans, K. U. Leuven The reations between the requirements for adaptive faut toerance support and rea-time, quaity-of-service and/or security are anayzed. 13

14 8E4 SPECIFICATION AND ALLOCATION OF RELIABILITY AND AVAILABILITY REQUIREMENTS Dr. Seppo Virtanen and Dr. Per-Erik Hagmark, Tampere University of Technoogy The paper presents a computer-supported method for specifying reiabiity, avaiabiity and repair time requirements for a product and aocating them into the product s design entities. WEDNESDAY SCHEDULE 8:00 AM 10:00 AM, Wednesday Session 9A Pacific Saon A/B ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING & AGING Moderator: Adamantios Mettas, ReiaSoft Corporation The emphasis of this session is on aternative approaches to acceerated ife testing. Emphasis is paced on Bayesian methods, HALT testing, and unique appications of ALT. 9A1 9A2 9A3 9A4 HALT VS. ALT: WHEN TO USE WHICH TECHNIQUE? Mike Siverman, Ops A La Carte HALT and ALT are two most of the most effective reiabiity testing methods but often times peope are confused about which to use when. In this paper, we sha examine when to use which technique, and when to use the two techniques together. ACCELERATED LIFE TESTS AT HIGHER USAGE RATES: A CASE STUDY Dr. Guangbin Yang and Ziad Zaghati, Ford Motor Company The paper describes an acceeration mode and optimum test pan for the acceerated ife tests at higher usage rates. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the reiabiity of a type of compact reays. ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING FOR SPEEDER PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: PROBLEMS AND STRATEGIES Sarath Jayatieka, Maytag Appiances, and Dr. O. Geoffrey Okogbaa, University of South Forida This paper addresses some practica hurdes that bocks the speedier new product deveopment process and provides the strategies to over come them using acceerated ife testing. The case is supported by exampes from the appiance industry. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION IN ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING : APPLICATION ON EXPONENTIAL-ARRHENIUS MODEL Prof. Fabrice Guerin, I.S.T.I.A LASQUO, Sorin Voicuescu, and Prof. Bernard Dumon, I.S.T.I.A - Quaity and Reiabiity Dept. In this paper, the Bayesian inference in acceerated ife testing is studied for the Exponentia - Arrhenius mode and the obtained estimators are compared to those obtained by Maximum Likeihood for the same input. The study took into account expert opinions in order to cover the rea word cases and showed the interest in using the Bayesian approach in integrating the avaiabe prior knowedge into mode parameters. Session 9B Pacific Saon C INNOVATIVE APPROACHES IN MAINTAINABILITY AND RELIABILITY Moderator: Wiiam F. Hagen, Ford Motor Company Reating performance to Reiabiity, using Maintainabiity to mitigate risk, Optimizing Maintenance, appying Taguchi to reiabiity improvement - R&M engineers report on their innovation. 9B1 9B2 9B3 USE OF R&M MEASURES IN AUSTRALIAN DEFENSE AEROSPACE PERFORMANCE BASED CONTRACTS Debbie Richardson and Andrew Jacopino, Defence Materie Organisation This paper identifies a four-step process for the deveopment and impementation of a Performance Based contract from R&M theory, in the Austraian Defense Aerospace environment. METHODOLOGY FOR MAINTAINABILITY-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT Waid M. Abdemoez, Dr. Katerina Goseva, Popstojanova, and Dr. Hany H. Ammar, West Virginia University Presents a methodoogy for assessing maintainabiity-based risk to account for changes in software system requirements. Maintainabiity-based risk is defined as a product of two factors: the probabiity of performing software maintenance tasks and the impact of performing these tasks. INTEGRATING DESIGN FOR PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY Yunxia Chen and Rui Kang, Beihang University Presents an approach to integrate Reiabiity Design and Anaysis with Performance Design and Anaysis in compex systems. Tutoria 9C INTRODUCTORY Pacific Saon E/F WEIBULL ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY, APPLICATIONS, BENEFITS AND PITFALLS Les Warrington, University of Warwick This tutoria provides an in-depth expanation of Weibu Anaysis methodoogy. It covers the underying theory, procedura appications, interpretation of resuts and the use of confidence imits. Limitations of the methodoogy, common mistakes and their avoidance are highighted. Cear exampes supported by both manua anaysis methods and modern software are empoyed. 14

15 Pane 9D Pacific Saon D LOGISTICS - TRANSITION OF ACQUISITION AND SUSTAINMENT OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR THE DEPART- MENT OF DEFENSE (DOD) Moderator: Dr. Raph L. Harper Jr., HarCon, Inc. The Logistics Pane wi cover Transition of Acquisition and Sustainment of products and services for the Department of Defense (DOD). As the United States DOD undergoes a major war fighting transformation from the egacy to the objective force, it faces and needs to address significant ogistics sustainment chaenges to ensure that its objective force wi have the robust infrastructure necessary to fight and win across the fu spectrum of future conficts Paneists: Louis A Kratz, US DoD, AT&L Thomas J. Edwards, U.S. Army Combined Arms Support Command Co. Warren M. Anderson, OUSD (AT&L) LTG(Ret) Roy E. Beauchamp, Washington Group Internationa Chares M. (Chuck) Huber, Huber Consutants Internationa Bob Kidwe, ManTech Internationa David J. Docguino, Raytheon Technica Service Company Dr. Raph L. Harper Jr., HarCon, Inc. Haxe Estavio, Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems Session 9E Avaon 21ST CENTURY RELIABILITY APPROACHES AND TOOLKITS Moderator: Patrick M. Daosta, NTVI Federa, Inc. New reiabiity approaches and tookits extend the range and scope of Reiabiity Anaysis from the traditiona functiona areas of design, prediction and assessment to the Business Objective forum, where cost, time-to-market and customer satisfaction are stringent criteria for success. 9E1 9E2 9E3 9E4 9E5 A CASE FOR NEW STATISTICAL SOFTWARE TESTING MODELS John May, Sike Kuba, and Juio Cesar Gaardo, University of Bristo A discussion of the Statistica Software Testing (SST) methodoogy to dynamicay test and assess a system s probabiity of faiure. A NEW APPROACH TO EVALUATE THE WORTHINESS OF REPAIR Dip.-Ing. Patrick Jager, Dip.-Ing. Monika Trost, and Dr-Ing. Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart A method of evauating the return on investment of a maintenance action at a certain point in time depending on the system condition and future income is presented. CREATING A SENSIBLE DERATING SYSTEM James A. McLinn, Teradyne Derating is the intentiona reduction of appied stress on a component in order to assure reiabiity. A series of derating guides have been issued by the miitary services as we as other groups. This paper expores and discusses issues associated with p roper component derating. RELIABILITY PREDICTION FOR COMPLEX MEDICAL SYSTEMS Dr. Roxana A. Ion, Dr.Ir. A.C. Brombacher, Eindhoven University of Technoogy, and Dr. Martin Newby, City University A discussion of the use and anaysis of fied data to predict the occurrence of faiures during the deveopment process and the initia fieding period, and the impementation of feedback to faciitate probem resoution. DESIGN OF A RELIABILITY CONCEPTION WITH IMPLEMENTATION OF COSTS BY A SEMANTIC NETWORK Dip.-Ing. Bettina Rzepka and Dr-Ing. Bernd Bertsche, University of Stuttgart The cost baance between increasingy higher reiabiity requirements and shortened deveopment time is addressed through the use of advanced mathematica modeing techniques. 10:15 AM 12:15 PM, Wednesday Pane 10A Pacific Saon C/D SYMPOSIUM PANEL RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY IN THE NEW FRONTIER Moderator: Vernon W. (Bi) Wesse, NASA Genn Research Center Leaders from industry, academia and government wi discuss reiabiity and maintainabiity for the new frontier in industry, defense and space exporation. Audience participation wi be encouraged during the session and questions wi be wecomed. Paneists Comprised of members of the RAMS Advisory Board Frank Cubertson, NASA Art Fornari, Xerox Dr. Kaiash C. Kapur, University of Washington Dr. Way Kuo, The University of Tennessee Bryan O Connor, NASA Dr. Ernest A. Segie, Office of the Secretary of Defense, DOT&E Mark Shaeffer, US DoD (OSD-ATL) Wiiam L. Vantine, The ARES Corporation 15

16 1:30 PM 3:30 PM, Wednesday Session 11A Pacific Saon A/B ACCELERATED LIFE AND ACCELERATED RELIABILITY GROWTH TESTING Moderator: Hugh Wison Broome, East Tennessee State University This session has a mix of theory and appications. From a theoretica standpoint, both Reia Growth and Mixed Trunsored methods are covered. Appications of ALT to cooing fans and aged components are aso covered. 11A1 11A2 11A3 11A4 COOLING FAN RELIABILITY: FAILURE CRITERIA, ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING, MODELING AND QUALIFI- CATION Dr. Xijin Tian, Hewett-Packard Co. Based on fied return and test data, the major faiure mechanisms and faiure modes of cooing fan systems are presented in this paper and the faiure criteria and the reiabiity metrics are discussed. By criticay comparing the acceerated ife testing methods from various vendors, a practica acceerated ife testing methodoogy is presented and a comprehensive reiabiity quaification procedure is proposed. ACCELERATED RELIABILITY GROWTH TESTING AND DATA ANALYSIS METHOD Miena Krasich, PE, Bose Corporation Acceerated reiabiity growth tests are designed to demonstrate product reiabiity. Whether the individua stresses are appied simutaneousy or in sequence, the times to faiure in each stress are projected vs. product ife, and then used as data in standard reiabiity growth statistica methods. This eiminates dependency of the test resuts on the test sequence producing a reaistic product reiabiity estimate. MIXED TRUNSORED MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO THE LIFETIME ESTIMATION OF MALCONDITION ITEMS Dr. Hideo Hirose, Kyushu Institute of Technoogy Assuming that a system consisting of fragie and durabe items wi fai if one of the items fais and that the system aso consisting of macondition items or good items wi not fai, we estimate the probabiity distribution for the macondition items using the mixed t runsored mode which combines the parameters in the distribution for the faiure data and those for the maconditioned data. The estimated parameters in the Weibu mode are robust even if the censoring time varies. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF AGED COMPONENTS Jorge Marcos-Acevedo, University of Vigo, Santiago Fernandez-Gomez, C2 Microsystems, Inc., Juan Barbero, ALCATEL Spain, and Dr. Ramiro Avarez-Santos, Universidad Poitecnica de Madrid A arge sampe of TTL and CMOS components in operation 24/7 in an industria environment for over 30 years was anayzed. This paper describes the anaysis procedure, resuts obtained, and concusions drawn. Pane 11B Pacific Saon C PROGNOSTICS HEALTH MANAGEMENT (PHM) Moderator: Jim Lauffer, DSI Internationa The Pane wi address the burning patform for Prognostic Heath Management requirements and how these requirements must be integrated for a tota Systems Engineering soution to achieve effective mission operation and support. Paneists: John B. Schoeder, Air Force Research Laboratory Dr. Kar M. Reichard, Penn State University Dr. Michae J. Roemer, Impact Technoogies Dr. Bruno Jambor, Lockheed Martin Space System Company Tutoria 11C INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon E/F OPTIMIZING MAINTENANCE AND REPLACEMENT DECISIONS Professor Andrew K. S. Jardine, University of Toronto This tutoria describes a variety of topics designed to hep engineers make more effective decisions regarding systems maintenance and repacement. Case studies reated to component repacement, spares parts provisioning, and equipment inspection are incuded. Session 11D ADVANCES IN RISK ASSESSMENT Moderator: Dr. Frank (Feng-Bin) Sun, Western Digita This session presents some advanced risk assessment methods and approaches for rea word scenarios. Pacific Saon D 11D1 11D2 INCORPORATING EXPERT KNOWLEDGE WHEN ESTIMATING PARAMETERS OF THE PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL Ai Zuashkiani, Dr. Dragan Banjevic, and Professor Andrew K. S. Jardine, University of Toronto Using expert s knowedge in buiding Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) modes. RISK ASSESSMENT OF REAL TIME DIGITAL CONTROL SYSTEMS Myron Hecht, Aerospace Corp This paper describes methods for feasiby assessing risk in integrated hardware and software rea-time contro systems based on empirica measurements and use of stochastic modes. 16

17 11D3 11D4 PRACTICAL EVALUATION OF THE REMM PROCESS Dr. Jane Marsha, University of Warwick, Mick Baderstone, Smiths Aerospace, David Lumbard, Westand Heicopters Ltd, and Graham Tanner, Ros Royce This paper summarizes the practica appication of REMM using a number of rea industria case studies. THE RELIABILITY OF CORRELATED TWO UNIT SYSTEMS Huseyin Sarper and Dr. Pau Chacon, Coorado State University Two-unit systems, for minimum ife (seria) and for maximum ife (parae), with correated ives are studied using bivariate exponentia and bivariate norma distributions. Session 11E INNOVATIONS IN HIERARCHICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING Moderator: Mary Rowzee, Daimer Chryser Corporation An overview of recent advances in contemporary faut tree anaysis and hierarchica modeing Avaon 11E1 11E2 11E3 11E4 11E5 A HYBRID FUZZY-MONTE CARLO SIMULATION APPROACH FOR FAULT TREE ANALYSIS Saman Aiari Zonouz and Dr. Seyyed Ghassem Miremadi, Sharif University of Technoogy Faut tree anaysis is one of the key approaches which are appied for the reiabiity anaysis of critica systems. Faut trees are usuay anayzed using anaytic approaches or Monte Caro simuation (MCS). This paper presents a new hybrid Fuzzy-Monte Caro (FMC) simuation approach in which the uncertain data is generated by this MCS approach. A TOOL FOR AUTOMATICALLY TRANSLATING DYNAMIC FAULT TREES INTO DYNAMIC BAYESIAN NET- WORKS Dr. Stefania Montani, Prof. Luigi Portinae, and Andrea Bobbio, Universita de Piemonte Orientae The modeing possibiities offered by Faut Trees (FT), one of the most popuar techniques for dependabiity anaysis of arge, safety critica systems, can be extended by reying on Bayesian Networks. This formaism aows to reax some constraints which are typica of FT, such as the hypothesis that eementary events are aways modeed as binary objects (working/faied), are probabiisticay independent, and interact just through Booean AND/OR connections. BDD BASED ANALYSIS OF PARAMETRIC FAULT TREES Daniee Codetta-Raiteri, Universita de Piemonte Orientae The Faut Tree is a widespread mode in reiabiity anaysis. Since its introduction, Faut Tree mode has gained widespread acceptance due to intuitive notion and easy manipuation. TERRIORIST RISK AND PROTECTION EVALUATION USING A POSTERIORI FAULT TREES Dr. Martin L. Shooman, Poytechnic University Risk anaysis is a powerfu too that can be used to quantify decisions that are made in protecting or responding to a terrorist act. There are severa probabiistic methodoogies that can be used to evauate such the probabiity of occurrence and risk of such events. In genera these anayses are driven by the probabiity of occurrence of the various events, and the accuracy and utiity of the anaysis is directy reated to the accuracy of the occurrence data. A BDD & SEA BASED ANALYSIS OF GENERALIZED PHASED-MISSION RELIABILITY Dr. Guangyu Chen, Xizi Huang, and Xiaowo Tang, Univ. of Eec. Science and Tech. of China Accounting for the reiabiity anaysis of a generaized phased-mission system (GPMS) with two-eve moduar imperfect coverage (MIPC), the dynamic behavior & the statistica dependencies across phases are the most important factors for reiabiity modeing & anaysis. There exist severa approaches, such as a famiy of decision diagrams caed ternary decision diagrams (TDD) and a mutistate binary decision diagram (MBDD) based approach, proposed for the GPMS reiabiity evauation. 3:45 PM 5:45 PM, Wednesday Pane 12A Pacific Saon A/B ACHIEVING R & M FOR THE ARMY S FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEM Moderators: Mevin R. Downes, Jr., US Army, Program Manager for Unit of Action, and Brian Knapczyk, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems A pane of Army, Boeing and key FCS suppiers wi present their current and state-of-the-art methods for achieving R&M requirements and share their success stories as we as essons earned. Boeing and the Army wi provide a presentation of the program, schedue and brief description of the R&M strategy, requirements, modeing and metrics incuding some recenty approved incentives and improvement programs. The FCS suppiers wi focus on specific subsystem/component R&M chaenges in Product Design; the design toos and best practices used; Acceerated Life Testing & Aging; and resuting changes in designs to date. Paneists: Phi Hodges, PM for Future Combat System-Supportabiity Reg Varga, Boeing Integrated Defense Systems Hugo Croft, BAE Systems Steve Franz, Genera Dynamics Land Systems Michae Roberts, Northrup Grumman Jay Mork, Genera Dynamics Advanced Information Systems Dennis Youngworth, BAE Systems 17

18 Session 12B Pacific Saon C MAINTAINABILITY, MAINTENANCE AND PLANNING - APPROACHES TO REAL WORLD AVAILABILITY IMPROVEMENT Moderator: Edward J. Zampino, NASA Genn Research Center Practica appications of Maintainabiity and Maintenance to assure system Avaiabiity in Manufacturing, Defense, and Nucear Power generation, pus some theory on condition monitoring. 12B1 12B2 12B3 12B4 COST EFFECTIVE CONDITION-BASED MAINTENANCE USING MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES Dr. Suprasad V. Amari, Leand McLaughin, Reex Software Corporation, and Dr. Hoang Pham, Rutgers University A generaized Condition Based Maintenance mode is presented that can be appied to a wide range of appications. The mode incudes a stochastic deterioration process, a set of maintenance actions and their effects, and a schedued inspection poicy that identifies the condition of deterioration. MODELLING IMPERFECT INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE IN DEFENSE AVIATION THROUGH BAYESIAN ANALYSIS Andrew Jacopino, Defence Materie Organisation, Dr. Frank J. Groen, Prediction Technoogies, Inc., and Dr. Ai Moseh, University of Maryand Describes a mode, the Genera Renewa Process introduced by KIJIMA and SUMITA, that more reaisticay represents the true ife of a Repairabe Item within the defense aviation environment. The mode can adapt to the imitations in data and incude a number of additiona factors incuding aging of the component, number of repairs, effectiveness of the repair, ski of the technicians, etc. OPTIMIZATION OF THE MONITORING DEVICE PERFORMANCE FOR A PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE POLICY Anne Barros, Dr. C. Berenguer, and Dr. A. Gra, Universite de Technoogie de Troyes A very simpe optimization scheme is presented, in which the optima monitoring technoogy or structure can be chosen among a finite set of possibe ones, on the basis of their impact on the maintenance performance and their own cost. At the same time, the maintenance parameters are optimay tuned to adapt to the current monitoring quaity eve. EFFECT OF A RELIABILITY & MAINTAINABILITY PROGRAM ON MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT PERFOR- MANCE Wiiam F. Hagen, Ford Motor Company The basic reason to consider Reiabiity and Maintainabiity in manufacturing systems is to ensure maximization of production throughput. A we-defined R&M program can be shown to contribute to this goa by increasing the avaiabiity of the machines. Tutoria 12C INTERMEDIATE Pacific Saon E/F LESSONS LEARNED FOR EFFECTIVE FMEAS Car S. Carson, ReiaSoft Corporation FMEA has the potentia to be a powerfu reiabiity too to reduce product design and manufacturing risk, yet often fas far short of this objective. This tutoria examines and discusses essons earned from industry. Attendees wi earn how to achieve effective resuts in their individua FMEAs and how to impement an effective FMEA process. Session 12D Pacific Saon D RISK ASSESSMENT: APPLICATIONS Moderator: Dr. Thomas F. Hassett, Consutant This session presents papers that focus on the practica appications of reiabiity risk assessment. Advanced modeing techniques empoying new computer technoogies and software are used to aid the research endeavors and provide meaningfu exampes. 12D1 12D2 12D3 12D4 RISK ASSESSMENT OF DERAILMENT INDUCED BY RAIL FAILURES - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH Jianmin Zhao, Andrew H. C. Chan and Aan B. Stiring, The University of Birmingham This paper presents an approach to predict the occurrence of faiures and the risk of accidents by the appication of the stochastic and probabiity methods. The proposed mode provides a too to anayze the effects of rai reiabiity and different maintenance activities on the risk of deraiment, and then a decision can be made to reduce the risk through rai maintenance and renewa poicy. RELATING RISK AND RELIABILITY PREDICTIONS TO DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT CHOICES Martin S. Feather and Dr. Steven L. Cornford, Jet Propusion Laboratory Risk and reiabiity predictions are done for a purpose - to yied information on which to base decisions (e.g., seection from among design aternatives). The expicit treatment of aternatives within a (simpe) risk mode, and its ramifications, are described and iustrated. RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF OFFSHORE OIL MULTILATERAL WELLS IN BRAZIL Dr. Enrique Lopez Droguett, Wagner Barbosa dos Santos, Federa University of Pernambuco, Caros Magno C. Jacinto and Gabrie Sotomayor, Petrobras This paper discusses the reiabiity assessment of mutiatera wes construction process by means of a hybrid procedure based on event sequence diagrams with pivota events characterized by Bayesian beief networks. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF FAILURES Dr. Seppo Virtanen, Dr. Per-Erik Hagmark and Jussi-Pekka Penttinen, Tampere University of Technoogy The paper presents a computer-supported method for modeing and anayzing causes and consequences of faiures. In the deveoped method, the cause tree mode is used to define causes and interconnected causaities that can ead to the occurrence of seected TOPevent, and consequence tree mode again describes the possibe chains of consequences initiated from the TOP-event. 18

19 12D5 ELICITING ENGINEERING JUDGMENTS IN HUMAN RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT Pauo Renato Aves Firmino, Regida da Costa Siva Menezes, and Dayse Cavacanti de Lemos Duarte, Federa University of Pernambuco This paper covers one of the main probems in the area of human reiabiity anaysis (HRA), how to treat the scarcity of data. This issue aso arises in the appication of Bayesian beief networks (BBNs) to the context of HRA, which aow for the use of mutidiscipinary knowedge in order to achieve more reaistic modes. Starting from two rea probems a protoco is proposed for engineering eicitation of conditiona probabiities. Session 12E Avaon INNOVATIONS IN FAILURE AND FAULT ANALYSIS Moderator: Louis J. Guo, Raytheon This session presents the atest deveopment in modeing and anayzing faiure mechanisms, faiure modes and faiure effects. 12E1 12E2 12E3 12E4 MICROSTRUCTURAL PHYSICS OF FAILURE MODELS TO PREDICT FATIGUE RELIABILITY Dr. Robert G. Tryon, Ganapathi Krishnan, and Yaowu Zhao, VEXTEC Corporation The paper presents a method for predicting fatigue faiure probabiity at the feet eve using a virtua testing software too that simuates rea materia behavior at the microstructura eve. REDUNDANCY OPTIMIZATION UNDER COMMON CAUSE FAILURE G.L. Pahuja, Nationa Institute of Technoogy and Dr. Krishna Gopa, Regiona Engineering Coege Redundancy optimization for non-repairabe systems under CCF has been attempted for the first time in this paper. FAILURE ANALYSIS OF A FAULT TOLERANT 2-NODE SERVER SYSTEM Danie Jacob, Eric J. Simon, Reex Software Corporation, Wei Zhang, and Dan Rose, StorageTek This paper presents an integrated mode of hardware and software faiures of a faut-toerant 2-node server system used in a rea-ife appication of an archive system. THE RISKS OF APPLYING QUALITATIVE PREDICTION METHODS: A CASE STUDY Ise M. de Visser, Eindhoven University of Technoogy and Johannes A. van den Bogaard, Technoogy Management Facuty of Eindhoven This paper iustrates the risks of appying quaitative reiabiity prediction methods in practice and makes suggestions for improving the appication of these methods. 6:30 PM 7:30 PM, Wednesday GENERAL RECEPTION Attrium 7:30 PM 10:00 PM, Wednesday BANQUET Grand Pacific Baroom THURSDAY SCHEDULE 8:00 AM 12:00 PM, Thursday Worskshop 13E Copper Cove ASQ CERTIFIED RELIABILITY ENGINEERING (CRE) AND SIX SIGMA BLACK BELT EXAMS The exam wi ast 4 hours and consists of 150 questions. Registration coses at Noon on Wednesday for the CRE Exam. The 8 areas of the Body of Knowedge are covered in detai, be sure to study a and attend the review session on Tuesday. Cacuators are suggested; nonprogrammabe are the ony ones permitted. Order a CRE Refresher Booket from ASQ at Refer to page 4 for registration information. 8:00 AM 10:00 AM, Thursday Session 13A Pacific Saon A/B DESIGNING SAFETY AND RELIABILITY INTO SPACE SYSTEMS Moderator: Anthony J. DiVenti, NASA Goddard Spacefight Center Ensuring that safety and reiabiity are designed into space systems can be a chaenge - see the current state-of-the-art techniques and resuts associated with design for safety and reiabiity techniques. 13A1 13A2 DOES SOFIA REQUIRE A CREW ESCAPE SYSTEM? Koushik Datta, Christopher B. Witsee, and Anthony Briceno, NASA Ames This paper depicts the rationae, based on reiabiity engineering, for making the decision for not requiring a crew escape system during the deveopment-phase fight tests for a NASA system. RELIABILITY AND CREW SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR A SOLID ROCKET BOOSTER/J-2S LAUNCHER Joseph R. Fragoa, PE, Bake F. Putney, Jr., Joseph W. Minarick III, and Benjamin J. Franzini, SAIC This paper documents the process impemented and the resuts obtained from a top-down evauation of the new crew SRB/J-2S auncher and how risk assessment has driven the design. 19

20 13A3 13A4 RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF PHASED-MISSION SYSTEMS: A PRACTICAL APPROACH Dr. Mansoor Aam, University of Toedo, Min Song, Od Dominion University, Steven L. Hester, Aternative Systems, Inc. and Thomas A. Seiga, Vope Nationa Transportation Center This paper presents a nove and simpe approach to reiabiity anaysis of phased-mission systems. SAFE CREW LAUNCH BY DESIGN Joseph R. Fragoa, PE, SAIC This paper addresses the issues that imit crew safety during aunch and ascent to ow Earth orbit (LEO) and suggests guideines that might provide designers with guidance on how to design reiabiity and safety into new or existing auncher designs. Session 13B Pacific Saon C PROCESS IMPROVEMENTS AND NEW TECHNIQUES IN SYSTEMS SAFETY Moderator: Patrick M. Daosta, NTVI Federa, Inc. Traditiona Safety anayses are now enhanced by the rebirth of Faut Tree Anaysis (FTA), Faiure Modes, Effects and Criticaity Anaysis (FMECA), Root Cause Anaysis (RCA), and Reiabiity Centered Maintenance (RCM). This session presents appications of these and other techniques that integrate the safety and engineering discipines. The resut is a more effective capabiity to mitigate risk and improve performance. 13B1 13B2 13B3 13B4 13B5 MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM REVIEW IN A SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM APPLIED TO A MAJOR HAZARD PLANT Dr. Mario Tucci, Universita degi Studi di Firenze, Ing. Irene Cappei, Ing. Francesca Tocchi, and Ing. Corso Piazzini, Universita di Firenze A case study of the maintenance management of a high risk power pant based on Reiabiity Centered Maintenance, Safety and Faut Tree Anayses. ACCIDENT CAUSE ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS BASED ON SAFETY CONTROL FUNCTIONS Dr. Takehisa Kohda and Yohei Takagi, Kyoto University A discussion of the use of accident modeing to determine the cause and impact of the oss of safety contros. INCORPORATING DEMAND MODELS INTO THE ASSESSMENT OF SAFETY SYSTEM PERFORMANCE Dr. Juia V. Bukowski, Vianova University A discussion of the impact of undetected faiures on safety inspection requirements and utiity of performance indicators in assessing the probabiity of a catastrophic event. A NOVEL SAFETY-CRITICAL SYSTEM MODELING APPROACH: TERNARY DECISION DIAGRAM Yangyang Yu and Dr. Barry W. Johnson, University of Virginia The use of parameterized modeing to measure, predict and survive fauts and faiures for a safety-critica computer system, where safety is a higher priority than reiabiity. SAFETY ASSESSMENT FOR SAFETY-CRITICAL SYSTEMS INCLUDING PHYSICAL FAULTS AND DESIGN FAULTS Yangyang Yu and Dr. Barry W. Johnson, University of Virginia A study of both design reated fauts and wear out faiures and the assessment processes used to identify, mitigate and eiminate them. Tutoria 13C SPECIAL TOPIC Pacific Saon E/F RISK MANAGEMENT Richard B. Jones, HSB Soomon Associates The Concept of risk is presented and then appied to deveop practica risk management toos that can be appied to rea-ife decision making situations. Session 13D Pacific Saon D COMPONENT RELIABILITY ENHANCEMENT TECHNIQUES Moderator: Dr. Vasiiy V. Krivtsov, Ford Motor Company Session discusses modern reiabiity engineering methods and practices heping to assess and improve component-eve reiabiity 13D1 13D2 INTEGRATED MODELING FOR FAULT-TOLERANT SENSOR NETWORK RELIABILITY AND SECURITY Dr. Liudong Xing and Howard E. Miche, University of Massachusetts We consider the reiabiity and security modeing of wireess sensor networks (WSN) in this paper. WSN are being used in increasingy diverse appication areas such as heathcare, miitary, environmenta, home, etc. Because sensor nodes are imited in power, memory, computationa and communication capabiities, and because they usuay operate in unattended and harsh environments, sensor nodes are prone to faiures. LOW-COST HARDENING TECHNIQUES FOR CMOS LOGIC Ghazanfar Asadi and Masoud Hashempour, Northeastern University Hardening techniques are becoming crucia for next generation combinationa circuits. In this work, we characterize the soft-error susceptibiity of 0.25µ MOSIS ibrary against different charges of SEUs (0.1pC, 0.2pC, 0.3pC, and 0.4pC). Then, we expore the effect of different impementations of a ogic function on the soft-error susceptibiity of the circuit. We aso expoit the asymmetric signa probabiities of the interna nodes to put seective protection on pu-up and pu-down networks. 20