GLOBAL PV MARKETS AND PERSPECTIVES
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1 GLOBAL PV MARKETS AND PERSPECTIVES Christoph Wolfsegger European Photovoltaic Industry Association Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 1
2 Cummulative PV capacity in MWp Country A Country B Country A Country B Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 2
3 Country A Germany jobs in PV industry, 750 MWp annual installations Country B Mexico Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 3
4 OUTLINE Who is EPIA? Feed in tariffs systems What is global market situation? What about competitiveness of PV? Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 4
5 WHO is EPIA? EPIA represents 95% of the photovoltaic European industry Exists since members: 102 full + 18 associate 102 full members : manufacturers on the overall value chain Budget 2007: 2.4 millions (54% Members, 31% Sponsorship, Partnerships and new businesses, 15% EC) Secretariat in Brussels 10 people in 2007 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 5
6 Components manufacturers (57) Full Members (57) aleo Solar (DE), Applied Materials (DE), Atersa (NL), Arcelor (LU), August Krempel (DE), Baoding Yingli (CN) Bangkok Solar (TAI), Bisol (SI), BP Solar (ES), CEEG PV (CN), Crystalox (UK), DC Chemicals (DE), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont (FR), Elkem Solar (NW), Energy Solutions (BG), Enersys (UK), EniPower (IT), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), Evergreen Solar (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU), Guardian (US), HCT Shaping Systems (CH), Helianthos (NL), Honeywell Specialty Materials (BE), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AU), KACO Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (US), KPE (KR), Kyocera (DE), Leybold Opticqs (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Mistubishi Electric Europe (DE), Multi- Contact (CH), MSK (UK), OC Oerlikon Balzers Ltd. (LS), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt Internatioal (FR), Pillar (UA), Podolsky Chemical (RU), PowerLynx (DK), PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe (DE), REC Scanwafer (NW), RENA Sondermachinen (DE), Renergies (IT), Saft (FR), Saint Gobain (FR), Schott Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar (NL), Sharp Solar Systems (DE), Shell Solar (NL), SGL Carbon (DE), Siemens (DE), Solar Cells Hellas (GR), SMA Technologie (DE), Solland Sollar Energy (NL), Solar Century (UK), Solar World (DE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Engineering (CH), Stangl Semiconductor Equipment (DE), Sunways (DE), Sunpower (US), Suntech Power (CN), Topsil (DK), Trina Solar (ES) Vesuvius (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), VON ARDENNE (DE), United Solar Ovonic Europe (DE) Würth Solar (DE) Systems, Consulting, R&D (45) Full Members (27) 3S Swiss Solar Systems (CH), Acciona Solar (ES), Carmanah (UK), City Solar (DE), Conergy (DE), Econcern (NL), Ecotecnia (ES), Engcotec (DE), ESI (DE), Goldbeck Solar (DE), GP Solar (DE), IBC Solar (DE), IB Vogt (DE), IT Power (UK), M+W Zander (DE), NAPS Systems (FI), NaRec Development Services (UK), Phönix SonnenStrom (DE), Powerlight Systems (CH), Saft Power Systems (FR), Solar Ventures (IT), Solar Electric (FR), Solaria Energia (ES), Tenesol (FR), Wager & Co Solartechnik (DE), WIP (DE) Associate Members (18) ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), APREN (PT) Belval (CH), CRES (GR), Dexia (FR), ECN (NL), EDF (FR), Trama (ES), Fraunhofer (DE), IM2 Systems (ES), IMEC (BE), INES (FR), Kosolco (DE), Observ ER (FR), REECO (DE), SEMI (US), SHV (NL) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 6
7 Alliance for Rural Electrification The Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE) is an international non-profit organization founded in 2006 by the most important European renewable energy Industry Associations,EPIA, ESHA, EWEA, EUBIA, GWEC ARE was created in response to the need for access to sustainable electricity in the developing world, and to facilitate the involvement of ARE members in emerging rural energy markets. Website: Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 7
8 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 8
9 Policy makers will ask why the change should be done with PV? RE source with hugepotential CO2 reduction Security of supply cheap on the long run! Socio-economic effects 9
10 How to do it? Premium feed in tariff Every PV system has to be connected to the grid by the utility Every solar kwh which is offered has to be bought by the utility Every solar kwh has to be payed with a fixed price over 20 years The feed-in tariff is reduced every year by 5-6,5% for new installed PV-systems Benefits: Security for investors Incentive to maximise output of system SYSTEMS NEEDS TO BE SIMPLE! 10
11 How the German system is working 1.28 TWh solar electricity sold for 679 mio (53 ct per kwh) Fossil and nuclear electricity (and other renewables) utilities (data 2005) consumer Price increase for consumer: 0.7% Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 11
12 EEG: Photovoltaic Feed-in Tariffs Feed-in tariffs for PV systems installed in 2007, payed over 20 years Feed-in tariff per kwh up to 30 kwp kwp from 100 kwp on buildings and noise protection walls ct ct ct Façade-integrated + ct 5 Open land (ground-mounted) ct Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 12
13 Global Market 2006 KEY DATA 1.5 GWp annual market 6.5 GWp accumulative capacity Rest of the World GERMANY JAPAN USA (California) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 13
14 Global Annual Installations MWp ROW USA JAPAN Germany Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 14
15 Market Segments Off-Grid Industrial Consumer 7 % - 96 MW 2 % - 24 MW 8 % MW Economically viable Off-Grid Residential On-Grid 84 % MW Dependent on market support programs Source: Strategies Unlimited - EPIA Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 15
16 Global Annual Installations of PV pessimistic scenario 6000 policy driven scenario % growth 5.6 GW 5000 MWp GW e e e e e e Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 16
17 Diversification of European and Global Market Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 17
18 Solar Energy and the Energy Transition geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (PV and solar thermal generation) wind biomass (advanced) biomass (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil EJ/a year 2100 Source: German AdvisoryCouncil on Global Change, 2003, Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 18
19 Cell Production Shares per Region 2006 Europe; 8,2% USA; 6,8% China; 15,1% India; 1,4% Germany; 20,0% Middle East; 0,3% Australia; 1,3% Rest of Asia; 3,7% Taiwan; 6,7% Japan; 36,4% source: Photon 2007/3 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 19
20 Relative Share of Technology over Time 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% New Concepts Thin Film c-si 30% 20% 10% 0% year source: EPIA Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 20
21 Competitveness of roof top systems Radiation PV costs per kwh 900 h/a (Germany) ~ 0.40 Residential electricity prices in Europe = 0,10 0, h/a (very south of Europe) ~ 0.20 PV system prices are decreasing by at least 5 % annually. With a stronger growing industry even faster (technological advance, economies of scale) Residential electricity prices and energy prices in general are expected to increase Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 21
22 2005 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.50 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.22 PV electricity prices compared with typical consumer electricity prices break-even boundary Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 22
23 2010 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.35 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.23 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 23
24 2015 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.25 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.24 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 24
25 2020 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.20 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.26 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 25
26 2030 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.10 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.28 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr) Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 26
27 Price Experience Curve $/Wp module price % price decrease by doubling cumulative volume until , MWp accumulated $/Wp module price (Assumption $= ) 1 EPIA Price Scenario experience factor 15% 1,1 GWp/a ,6 GWp/a GWp/a GWp/a % GWp accumulated Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 27
28 Correlation of PV and Spot Market prices Normierter Preis APX Normierter Preis EEX ,8 Normierte PV- Leistung 0,6 0,4 0, Source: Fraunhofer Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 28
29 Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW) 60 $ct/kwh summer winter 0 hours Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 29
30 Daily profile of solar energy production and energy consumption of an office building 24h-Energy Profile Solar Energy Electrical Energy [arb. units] Electricity supplied by Utility Fed-In Energy Energy consumption of building Electricity supplied by Utility 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 24:00 Low Tariff High Tariff Low Tariff Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 30
31 Conclusions Germany still the most important market. Many countries are on the verge to take off. PV on grid systems become competitive in many countries within the next decade at peak electricity prices (Japan and California almost competitive today). Premium feed in tariff is the best way to establish a market Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 31
32 ..lets get the graph right Country A Country B Country A Country B 0 Country A Country B PV Industry Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 32
33 Thank you very much for your attention! Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 33
34 = own estimates Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow 2050 Fossile (coal, gas) Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) Wind (off-/on shore) 9/7.5 8/7.5 8/7.5 Solar thermal PV solar electricity (south/north) 62 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 34
35 = own estimates Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Today 2005 Tomorrow 2030 Day after tomorrow 2050 Fossile (coal, gas) Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) Wind (off-/on shore) 9/7.5 8/7.5 6/5 8/7.5 3/4 Solar thermal PV solar electricity (south/north) 62 20/40 5/10 3/6 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 35
36 Development of the German PV-market 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access (2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 ct per kwh) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 ct per kwh total installed PV-power in MWp : 1,000 Roofs Program : 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans for 300 MWp : 1200 Amendment to EEG 1000 Feed-in tariff of ct 800 per kwh annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico
37 Technology Shares in 2006 CIS; 0,2% a-si; 4,7% ribbon-sheet c-si; 2,6% CdTe; 2,7% mono c-si; 43,4% multi c-si; 46,5% source: Photon 2007/3 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 37
38 Regional Development until 2011 (Annual Installations Policy Driven Scenario) GW GW MWp GW 2.2 GW 3.1 GW 4.3 GW Rest of the World USA Rest of Asia Japan Rest of Europe Germany year Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 38
39 Market Leaders in Cell Production in 2006 Rest; 23,5% Sharp; 17,1% Q-Cells; 10,0% BP Solar; 3,4% Solar World; 3,5% Schott Solar; 3,8% Motech; 4,0% Mitshubishi Electric; 4,4% Kyocera; 7,1% Suntech; 6,3% Sanyo; 6,1% source: Photon 2007/3 Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 39
40 Module Efficiency and Silicon Consumption - one of several drivers to competitiveness g/wp and % efficiency % silicon usage g/wp year source: EPIA Primer loloquio para el fromento de energia fotovoltaica en Mexico 40
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