Der Photovoltaik-Markt Stand und Perspektiven

Transcription

1 Der Photovoltaik-Markt Stand und Perspektiven 4. Workshop Photovoltaik-Modultechnologie 29./30. November 2007 TÜV Rheinland, Köln Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and member of the Scientific Board and Supervisory Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH, respectively Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG " Siemensstr. 100 " Alzenau Phone: " Fax: "

2 Applied Materials Overview Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology" to improve the way people live Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) Worldwide Employees Worldwide Locations $9,868 Million Approx. 14, Countries Solar Business Group within Energy and Environmental Solutions Power $/W Area $/m² SunFab TM 2

3 Components manufacturers (81) Full Members (81) Aleo Solar (DE), Applied Materials (DE), Atersa (NL), Arcelor (LU), August Krempel (DE), Baoding Yingli (CN) Bangkok Solar (TAI), Bisol (SI), BP Solar (ES), Centrosolar (DE), Centrotherm (DE), China Sunergy (CN), Crystalox (UK), DC Chemicals (DE), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont (FR), Elettronica Santerno (IT), Engcotec (DE), Elkem Solar (NW), Energy Solutions (BG), Enersys (UK), EniPower (IT), EPV Solar (US), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), Evergreen Solar (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU), Guardian (US), HCT Shaping Systems (CH), Helianthos (NL), Heraeus Holding (DE), Honeywell Specialty Materials (BE), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AU), KACO Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (US), KPE (KR), Kyocera (DE), Leybold Opticqs (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Martifer (PT), Mistubishi Electric Europe (DE), Multi-Contact (CH), MSK (UK), OC Oerlikon Balzers Ltd. (LS), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt Internatioal (FR), Pillar (UA), Podolsky Chemical (RU), Danfoss Solar Inverters - PowerLynx (DK), Priorite Business (RU), PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe (DE), REC Scanwafer (NW), RENA Sondermachinen (DE), Renergies (IT), Saft (FR), Saint Gobain (FR), Schott Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar (NL), Sharp Solar Systems (DE), Shell Solar (NL), SGL Carbon (DE), Siemens (DE), Singulus Technologies (DE), Solar Cells Hellas (GR), SMA Technologie (DE), Solland Sollar Energy (NL), Solar Century (UK), Solar Plus (PT), Solar Solutions (CA), Solar World (DE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Engineering (CH), Stangl Semiconductor Equipment (DE), Sunways (DE), Sunpower (US), Suntech Power (CN), Topsil (DK), Trina Solar (ES), Vesuvius (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), VON ARDENNE (DE), United Solar Ovonic Europe (DE), Würth Solar (DE), XL-Telecom (IN) Systems, Consulting, R&D (44) Full Members (26) 3S Swiss Solar Systems (CH), Acciona Solar (ES), Carmanah (UK), City Solar (DE), Conergy (DE), Econcern (NL), Ecotecnia (ES), Engcotec (DE), ESI (DE), Goldbeck Solar (DE), GP Solar (DE), IBC Solar (DE), IB Vogt (DE), IT Power (UK), M+W Zander (DE), NAPS Systems (FI), NaRec Development Services (UK), Phönix SonnenStrom (DE), Powerlight Systems (CH), Saft Power Systems (FR), Solar Ventures (IT), Solar Electric (FR), Solaria Energia (ES), Tenesol (FR), Upsolar (CH), Wager & Co Solartechnik (DE), WIP (DE) Associate Members (18) ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), APREN (PT) Belval (CH), CRES (GR), Dexia (FR), ECN (NL), EDF (FR), Trama (ES), Fraunhofer (DE), IM2 Systems (ES), IMEC (BE), INES (FR), Kosolco (DE), Observ ER (FR), REECO (DE), SEMI (US), SHV (NL) 3 E P I A M em bers, S ta tus

4 Historical Market Development by Regions Market growth in MW %/yr overall JAP GER/EU USA ROW ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting 4

5 Development of the German PV-market 1991: Electricity Feed-In Act Right of (1) of grid access (2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 ct per kwh) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 ct per kwh total installed PV-power in MWp : 1,000 Roofs Program annually installed PV power in MWp ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany) : 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans for 300 MWp total installed PV power in MWp : 1000 Amendment to EEG 800 Feed-in tariff of ct per kwh

6 European Market Support Programs Country Germany Italy Feed-in law Tariff Duration [ ct/kwh] [a] BIPV + 5ct Cap [MW] - 1,200 yearly market [MW] (est.) Portugal Spain France Greece other countries BIPV Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005) ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) 6

7 3 x 20% in the year 2020 in EU27 20 % renewable energy with end energy 20 % increase of energy efficiency 20 % decrease of greenhouse gases (GHG) Directive of the EU commission (DG TREN): Harmonized support scheme for mandatory trade of green certificates (GoO) + Possibility to use additional support mechanisms, e.g. feed-in tarrif 7

8 Different World PV Market Projections until 2010 MW E P I A ( P e s s i m i s t i c S c e n a r i o, P V M e d A t h e n s, A p r ) E P I A ( P o l i c y d r i v e n E s t i m a t e, P V M e d, A t h e n s, A p r, ) L B B W ( M a r k t m o d e l l V e r s i o n 2. 1, A u g u s t ) N a v i g a n t ( R e p o r t N P S - G L O B A L 2 A u g u s t D e c r e a s e d i n c e n t i v e s ) N a v i g a n t ( R e p o r t N P S - G L O B A L 2 A u g u s t C o n s e r v a t i v e ) N a v i g a n t ( R e p o r t N P S - G L O B A L 2 A u g u s t A c c e l e r a t e d ) S a r a s i n ( F o r e c a s t P r e s e n t a t i o n D r. F a w e r, S a r a s i n, N o v. 8 t h, ) D e u t s c h e B a n k ( G l o b a l M a r k e t s R e s e a r c h, S o l a r P V, J u l y ) 8

9 Demand and Supply in 2010 Demand around 6 GW Supply side 2010 capacity production (only bottle neck in respective value chain) 24/7 theoretical nominal (incl. uptime and R&M) normally given for Dec GW in Dec 10 and 30% growth ca. 7,7 GW Dec. 09 it needs about 6 months after capacity build to ramp to full capacity production will only be about 7 8 GW in 2010 time from production to installation about three months Even at an assumed capacity of 10 GW and an installed market of 6 GW in 2010, the load factor of production plants can still be above 80% 9

10 Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules 100 History 10,0 Forecast $/Wp module price 10 20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume MWp accumulated $/W module price 1,0 experience factor 15% 18% 1.8 GW/yr GW/yr 2010 F 70 GW/yr 2020 F 340 GW/yr 2030 F 0, GW accumulated ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates 10

11 Cost/Learning Curve Examples DRAM Cents/bit VLSI/DRAM ~28% reduction for doubling of total volume Cumulative Bits 10 Capital Cost $/m 2 Market Price/unit (1996 $) 10,000 FPD Cost (PECVD) 1, Analog Handset Price Cumulative Units Sold (Millions) Output - m 2 (000 Omitted) 11

12 Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GWp and bn turnover % 10% % PV Power installed, GWp/a % 30% 25% 20% m o d u l e l e v e l r a n g e d e p e n d i n g o n e x p e r i e n c e f a c t o r ( 1 5 % % ) f a b - i n v e s t l e v e l ( d e c r e a s e : ~ 1 0 % e v e r y 5 y e a r s ) u p p e r b o u n d : c - S i, f u l l p r o d u c t i o n c h a i n l o w e r b o u n d : t h i n f i l m Market, billion /a 40% F 2015F 2020F 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates year 12

13 Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 13

14 The four main technology routes Crystalline Silicon (wafer based) Thin Film III V compounds (GaAs) New Concepts 14 14

15 c-si Technology Wafer [µm] Kerf loss [µm] /0 200/0 150/0 Cell efficiency [%] [g/w] ,5-3 Module Long term stable, low cost/m² technology In the long run integrated manufacturing of thin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminate making is probably the most effective route. 15

16 Thin Film Technologies have low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) - deposition area: 0,6 1, m² - utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) - creation of semitransparency by thin-layers - flexible solar cells ( web coaters) c) low cost (price) per Wp - ASI/µc-Si and II VI compound (CIS, CTS) - efficiency from 8 12 % today up to % in 2010 and % in

17 Substrate Size Expansion in LCD 2.6 meters Gen 7 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters 2.2 meters Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 2 Gen Gen Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen x m m 4 up up up 15 ~ 17 6 up 19 ~ 24 6 up x 37 wide x up 5 0 mx m52 wide 2.6 meters 17 Applied Materials confidential

18 Technology Evolution TF c-si r mc Cz a-si-pin/pin II-VI a-si/µc-si dye a-si-pin II-VI r mc Cz ModulePrice/Wp[rel.units] ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates Module Efficiency [%] 18

19 Technologie Evolution MW %p.a. 25%p.a GW c-si Thin Film New Concepts 19 19

20 Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Today Tomorrow Day after tomorrow Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech Fossile (coal, gas) Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) PV solar electricity (south/north) 20/40 5/10 3/6 = own estimates ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates 20

21 Solar is Projected to be Big 21

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