PERSPEKTYWY FOTOWOLTAIKI W POLSCE. Stanisław M. Pietruszko Politechnika Warszawska Polskie Towarzystwo Fotowoltaiki

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1 PERSPEKTYWY FOTOWOLTAIKI W POLSCE Stanisław M. Pietruszko Politechnika Warszawska Polskie Towarzystwo Fotowoltaiki S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

2 Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y] Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y] 1st AIST-RCPV International Workshop WBGU s World Energy Vision ,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,60 0 1,40 0 1,20 0 1, WBGU: WBGU: German German Advisory Advisory Council Council on Global on Change Global Change YEAR 12 May 2004, Tsukuba Geothermal Other REs Solar heat Solar electricity 600 Wind Biomass adv 400 Biomass trad 200 Hydro-PW Nuclear PW Gas Coal 0 YEAR Oil

3 4000 Świato ajwan ,6% 14,2% 39,3% 64,2% 31,7% 9,4% 123,6% -1,0% 40,9% 182,6% 143,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 270,0% 190,9% 267,5% 200,1% 111,1% 76,1% 19,4% 51,7% 42,4% 56,3% 43,0% 59,5% 67,3% 38,8% 63,7% 72,6% 18,5% 63,3% 60,8% 33,1% 46,6% 43,8% 71,2% 33,4% 11,9% 1,1% 36,2% 21,7% % % % % % % % % % 13,2% 23,3% 33,8% 20,2% -14,0% 34,0% 11,4% 12,1% 57,3% 58,0% 26,8% Source: Photon Int. March 20

4 OFF-GRID NON-DOMESTIC

5 Off-grid domestic 2 bln people without electricity

6 ON-GRID DISTRIBUTED

7 BIPV

8 BIPV

9 BIPV - colored solar cell

10 Systemy zainstalowane na ziemi Image:Phönix Image:Geosol Image:Phönix Image: Geosol Image: Epuronl

11 S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

12 Rys. S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

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14 Year Energy pay-back time (NL): status and near-future development 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 BoS Frame Laminate 1,00 0,50 0,00 ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)

15 MWh clean energy Energy Payback for PV Systems Investment Return Years

16 Photovoltaic Market Development in Germany PV-Market Data Germany 2009 New installed Totally installed end of 2009 Turn over 3 GWp 8.5 GWp 10 Bln No of jobs No of PV component manufacturer in Germany Average of annual market growth PV system price <100 kwp end of 2009 per kwp Production of solar electricity Share of solar electricity on demand Production of solar cells 2008 Production of PV modules 2008 ca % TWh 1.1% 1.4 GWp 1.2 GWp

17 Source: German Federal Ministry for Environment, March 2008 German targets: double the share of electricity from renewable energies from 15% to at least 30% in 2020 Development of the share of Renewable Energy Sources on final energy consumption

18 40 TWh solar electricity responds to ca. 42 GWp installed PV-capacity Total installed end of 2010 : ca. 12 GWp Only an annual installation of 3 GWp is necessary

19 Different strategies are available to support PV market development The appropriate instrument depends upon different target groups Electricity producer Grid operators Consumer Feed-in tariff Quotas/Certificates* Grants/Tax incentives * USA: Renewable Portfolio Standard - RPS

20 Image: Solar-Fabrik German feed-in tariffs for PV systems, which PV will in be installed 2010 in 2010 will receive this feed-in tariff for 20 years An additional reduction by July 1st, 2010 is under discussion Feed-in tariff < 30 kwp > 30 kwp > 100 kwp > 1000 kwp On buildings and on noise protection walls Self-used solar electricity bonus Free land / ground mounted 39.14ct 37.23ct 35.23ct 29.37ct 25.01ct 28.43ct

21 Grid parity will be reached in only a Grid parity = electricity price of private customers equal to solar electricity price few years (PV Feed-in tariff without additional reduction in July 2010) Grid parity will be reached between 2012 and 2015

22 100% 95% 96,0% Preisindex BSW-Solar PV-Systeme independent price index for photovoltaic systems 90% 85% 89,0% 87,1% 85,5% 84,3% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% - 9,3% - 3,2% Durchschnittliche Annual average price jährliche reduction: Reduktion: 13.3% 13,3% 78,4% 72,4% 65,3% 62,7% 55% 50% Q4 2009: Durchschnittlicher Average price for PV-Anlagenpreis systems <100 kwp: < 100 kwp: /kwp (ready (fertig installed installetiert, without ohne MWSt.) VAT) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ,6% Q Q Q Source: Representative survey at 100 installers by EuPD-Research on behalf of BSW-Solar

23 Strengths of Feed-in tariffs Investments in PV systems are financially attractive => Profit is the driver of the PV market Investment security enables market entrance of new PV actors => New actors are entering the power market (competition) The additional costs are distributed to all electricity consumers => Small contribution of individuals / polluter-pays-principle The additional costs are distributed over a long period (e.g. 20 a) => Only the kwh produced is remunerated (output-oriented) PV price reduction triggered by degressive feed-in tariffs => Investments are not postponed Each RES technology can be supported individually => The profit is technology-independent Challenges of Feed-in tariffs It is difficult to limit market growth without disturbing the market development => A strategy is needed if market development exceeds the expectations The costs are growing continuously until the payment period of the first plants ends => A realistic calculation of the additional costs is recommended

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25 S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

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27 COUNTRY BULGARIA CYPRUS CZECH REPUBLIC FEED-IN TARIFF FOR PV (EUR/KWH) <5kW 0, 428 >5kW 0,380 min.0,36 max.0,38 if subsidized min. 0, 20 max. 0,22 < 30 kw 0,4712 > 30 kw or green bonus < 30 kw 0,4338 > 30 kw exchange rate 26 CZK/EUR HUNGARY 0,10 GRANTING PERIOD (YEARS) DEGRESSION ELECTRICITY PRICE FOR HOUSHOLDS (EUR/kWh) ELECTRICITY PRICE FOR INDUSTRY (EUR/kWh) 25 5% 0,09 0,07 15 or 20 No 0,12 0,11 20 no from ,171-0,182 investment payback Base load: 0,04-0,05 Peak load: 0,06-0,07 No 0,16 0,18 or 0,14 LATVIA 0,43 20 No 0,11 0,07 LITHUANIA 0,46 10 No 0,13 0,11 SLOVAKIA 0, % 0,15 0,14 SLOVENIA min.0,27 max.0,48; if subsidized then: min. 0, 20 max. 0, % 0,09 0,08 S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

28 COUNTRY PV PRIORITY ACCESS TO THE GRID SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURE NUMBER OF INSTITUTIONS CONDITIONING APPROVAL COMPLEXITY OF THE PROCEDURE OVERALL PROCEEDINGS LEAD TIME COSTS COVERED BY PV PRODUCER BULGARIA YES NO 6 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING 6-12 MONTHS SHARED CYPRUS YES YES 2 TO 8 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING 1-6 MONTHS <20KW, 6-12 MONTHS SHARED/NONE <20KW, GRID EXTENSION COSTS ALWAYS SHARED CZECH REPUBLIC YES NO 4 TO 7 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING 6 MONTHS DEPENDS ON CONNECTION TYPE AND VOLTAGE LEVEL ESTONIA NO NO N/A N/A N/A TOTAL HUNGARY NO YES N/A REASONABLE 1 TO 6 MONTHS NONE under 3x16A LATVIA NO NO 3 TO 6 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING N/A TOTAL LITHUANIA NO NO 1 REASONABLE 1 TO 6 MONTHS SHARED (PV PRODUCER PAYS UP TO 40%) MALTA YES YES 1 TO 3 REASONABLE 1 TO 6 MONTHS TOTAL POLAND NO NO > 10 DIFFICULT > 1 YEAR SHARED (PV PRODUCER PAYS 50%) ROMANIA YES NO 3 TO 6 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING 6 MONTHS NONE/SHARED FOR PLANTS >10 MW SLOVAKIA YES NO > 10 DIFFICULT > 1 YEAR TOTAL SLOVENIA YES NO 3 TO 5 DIFFICULT BUT IMPROVING 6 TO 12 MONTHS SHARED S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

29 S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

30 S. M. Pietruszko, Politechnika Warszawska ENERGETAB 2010,

31 2005 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.50 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.22 PV electricity prices*) compared with typical consumer electricity prices *) depreciation 25 yrs, real interest rate 4%, O&M cost 1%/yr, PR 0.75 (example) break-even boundary

32 2010 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.35 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.23 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

33 2015 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.25 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.24 V electricity prices compared with xpected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

34 2020 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.20 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.26 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

35 Conclusions Photovoltaic will be an important pillar of a sustainable energy mix in most of the countries worldwide in the future We have to start to build up PV markets today worldwide to build up capacities and reduce costs Building up PV markets need - a clear target, - stable market conditions and - continuous longterm support programs up to the point when competitiveness will be reached There are different types of support programs available but feed-in tariffs have proven to be up to now the most successful instrument Image: Frankensolar Image: SMA Image: Geosol

36 Warsaw University of Technology Dr. Stanislaw M. Pietruszko Koszykowa 75, Warsaw, Poland tel.: , Tel./fax: Version: Polish and English Presenter's name Name of the event Place and date