Perspectives on Global Competitiveness in Solar Energy at the U.S Department of Energy

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1 Perspectives on Global Competitiveness in Solar Energy at the U.S Department of Energy 1

2 Minimum Take-Aways from This Talk Q: How do you pronounce photovoltaic? A: fō-tō-vōlt-a-ic Q: Why is Germany leading the world in solar installations? A: Stable policy is probably the leading reason. It s certainly not because they have lots of sunshine Q: How is the U.S. doing in photovoltaic innovation? A: NUMBER ONE, BABY 2

3 Outline A Brief Word on Sunshine Photovoltaic Basics Policies to Encourage Photovoltaic Deployment Policies to Encourage Photovoltaic Technology Innovation Conclusions 3

4 4

5 Solar Resources Spain kwh / m 2 / Year Germany Source: NREL (2011) 5

6 Photovoltaics = PV Solar Panel = PV Module Modules are made of solar cells Light shines onto photovoltaic material to generate electricity 6

7 Energy Units Nellis Air Force Base (Nevada): Large PV installation in the United States 14 MegaWatts (MW) 30 million kilowatthours (kwh) per year Supplies base with >25 % of the total power used by the base population (12,000 people) Watt = unit of power (30 W to power a CFL light bulb) KiloWatt = 1000 Watts (33 light bulbs) MegaWatt = 1,000,000 Watts; 1000 kilowatts (33,333 light bulbs) KiloWatt-hour = unit of energy Using a 30 watt light bulb for one thousand hours consumes 30 kilowatt hours of electricity 7

8 Types of Photovoltaics Concentrating Photovoltaics 8

9 Roof Mounted PV 9

10 Building Integrated PV 10

11 Ground mounted PV: Large utility installations Sarnia, Ontario, Canada 97 MW Largest in the world 11

12 Large utility installations: USA Copper Mountain, NV 48 MW Largest in US 8 th largest in the world 12

13 Installed Price ($/W) Residential PV Installed Price (2010) $8 $6.50 Balance of System Module $ / Watt DC $6 $4 $4.58 $3.83 $2 $2.11 $1.92 $1.72 $0 Source: Bloomberg NEF (2010), California Solar Initiative, Oanda (2010) 13

14 Current Prices of Rooftop PV in the US Typical Installation Details: 4kW system size offsets about 50% of a house s energy needs 12-19% efficient modules Panels Module price = $3/W Install price of $7/W $28, year lifetime warranties (inverters 5-15 years) Initial Installed Price State Subsidy ($1.10/W) Federal Tax Credit (30% after State rebates) Final System Price $28,000 $4,400 $7,080 $16,520 Costs of a PV system vary because of differences in labor, hardware type, available incentives, type of mounting, permitting,etc. 14

15 What s in the policy toolbox? 15

16 Tools for Deployment Feed-in Tariff Renewable Portfolio Standard Investment Tax Credit Loans, Loan Guarantees, Lower Cost Capital Modified Depreciation Tools 16

17 U.S. & German Solar Incentives 30% Investment Tax Credit National Feed-in Tariff Grant-in-Lieu of Tax Credit (1603) R&D Funding Manufacturing Tax Credit (48C) Loan Guarantees Accelerated Depreciation & Bonus Depreciation State, Local, & Utility Incentives State Renewable Portfolio Standards R&D Funding Accelerated Depreciation Access to Less Costly Capital 80% clean electricity by 2050 Tax Credits 17

18 PV Registrations (MW) Peaks in Installations Precede German Incentive Feed In Tariff Cuts 2, GW Dec GW June GW Dec ,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan January 2009 December 2010 Source: Bundesnetzagentur (2011) 18

19 Annual PV Demand (GW DC ) PV Demand Significant growth is predicted in most major markets but Germany is expected to remain the leader through 2012 U.S. is expected to be one of the fastest growing major PV markets over the next few years E 2011E 2012E 2013E U.S. Germany Spain Italy France Japan China ROW Sources: Barclays Capital (1/12/11 & 2/14/11), Citigroup Global Markets (2/14/11), Cowen & Co. (12/2/10 & 3/10/11), Goldman Sachs Group (1/23/11), Jefferies & Co. (2/2011), J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (3/9/10 & 1/11/11), Lazard Capital Markets (2/11/11), Piper Jaffray (1/2011), Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. (1/13/11), UBS Securities, LLC (3/8/11), Wedbush Securities (2/8/11), Wells Fargo Securities (5/4/10 & 12/7/10) Note: Not all sources utilized provide projections for each year shown. The number of projections for each year (i.e. N) are: 2008: 11, 2009: 12, 2010E: 12, 2011E: 12, 2012E: 10, 2013E: 5. 0 Global Canada, Czech Republic, India, South Korea, et. al. 19

20 Tools for Technology R&D Funding R&D Tax Credit Manufacturing Tax Credit 20

21 % of GDP As % of GDP 21

22 $ / Capita $1.20 Per Capita Series 1 $1.10 $0.90 $0.80 $0.40 $0.30 $

23 Apollo Mission of Our Times Moon Shot We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win. September 12, 1962 SunShot We re telling America s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we ll fund the Apollo projects of our time. -- President Obama, State of the Union

24 The DOE SunShot Initiative The DOE SunShot Initiative is a collaborative national initiative to make solar energy technologies costcompetitive with other forms of energy by reducing the cost of solar energy systems by about 75% before Reducing the total installed cost for utility-scale solar electricity to roughly 6 cents per kilowatt hour without subsidies will result in rapid, large-scale adoption of solar electricity across the United States. Reaching this goal will re-establish American technological leadership, improve the nation s energy security, and strengthen U.S. economic competitiveness in the global clean energy race. Through advanced solar technology development, we are laying the groundwork for subsidy-free affordable solar energy 24

25 SunShot PV Incubator R&D Program Tier 1 (Prototype) Tier 2 (Pilot Line) Objective: Foster domestic innovation & growth Accelerate transition of a Proof of Concept to Prototype Scale-up Prototype to Pilot Scale Production 25

26 26

27 24 Companies $59M Federal R&D $1.3B Private Capital >1200 Jobs 27

28 Billions Nominal $ Global Solar Investment Of the $35.8 billion in solar debt transactions during mid 2010, the China Development Bank accounted for $30.4 billion IPO conditions remain poor (although they have slightly recovered from their 2009 low) $60 $50 $40 $30 Solar M&A Solar VC & PE Solar Debt Solar Public Equity Total Investment Increase 153% CAGR % CAGR % CAGR $20 $10 $ Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11** *Excluding government R&D and project finance investments but includes finalized U.S. DOE Loan Guarantees & loans by the China Development Bank. **Data through 3/16/11 only. Sources: Bloomberg NEF (12/08, 3/6/09, 4/9/10, 4/16/10, 11/8/10, & 3/16/11) 28

29 VC & PE Investments (Billions Nominal $) $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Global Solar Venture Capital & Private Equity Investment by Technology U.S. continues its leadership in both its size & diversity of VC & PE investment Thin Film PV Solar Heating & Cooling Project Developer Polysilicon Other Next Generation PV Mounting and Tracking Manufacturing Equipment Inverters CSP Crystalline Silicon PV CPV & Multijunction Transactions Asia (includes India & Austrialia) Europe (includes Africa & and middle east) U.S. (includes North & South America) Asia (Includes India & Australia) Note: Number of Transactions includes transactions without a disclosed value. Europe (Includes Africa & Middle East) U.S. (Includes North & South America) Number of Transactions 29 Source: Bloomberg NEF (2/15/11)

30 Conclusions Policy has a significant role in making photovoltaics affordable for average Americans: a combination of incentives to encourage deployment and policies to encourage technological innovation are currently needed. Germany has had significant successes in installing photovoltaics through their deployment policies; other policies, like what has been used in the US, can also be successful and has poised the US to be market growth leader in years to come. Through technological advances and efficiencies that will come through scale up, affordable photovoltaic generated electricity will be possible in most regions of the US by the end of the decade. There is a serious concern whether the low-cost photovoltaics hardware coming from China (primarily) will make it difficult for new technologies to take root and grow into competitive companies. A large portion of the innovation in photovoltaics is happening in the US, positioning our country to potentially take advantage of US market growth and growth in other world markets. Photovoltaic = fō-tō-vōlt-a-ic 30

31 Thank You Contact Information: Dr. Marie Mapes Photovoltaic Technology Manager U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program Phone: On the web: DOE SunShot Initiative 31

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