Solar energy: prepare for impact. Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform

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1 Solar energy: prepare for impact Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform

2 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 2

3 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 3

4 Main solar energy (direct) conversion options light low temperature heat light high temperature heat electricity Concentrating Solar Power, CSP light high temperature heat fuels thermo-chemical fuel production light electricity photovoltaic conversion, PV light fuels photo(electro)chemical fuel production, artificial photosynthesis 4

5 The many faces of solar electricity (PV) 5

6 City of the Sun, Municipality of Heerhugowaard (NL) 6

7 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 7

8 PV systems: main types grid connected system PV inverter = / user electricity grid PV charge regulator stand-alone system (storage) user 8

9 Installed PV capacity per application type Cumulative installed capacity [MW] On-grid Off-grid Source: Stefan Nowak, NET, Switzerland and IEA-PVPS 9

10 Installed PV capacity per region Source: Adel el Gammal, EPIA

11 Price development solar modules: the learning curve (combined benefits of innovation, experience and scale % price decrease for every doubling of cumulative production wafer Si 2007 Thin film 2009 silicon feedstock shortage 2009 Source: EPIA, October

12 Solar electricity: the challenge quantified (rules of thumb) Needed for impact on a global scale: EJ ~ TWp ~ 50,000 1,000,000 km 2 Generation costs < 0,10 /kwh ~ system price < 1 /Wp (now 2.5 /Wp) - low-cost solar modules, and - low-cost Balance-of-System (components + labour) Long lifetime: year Sustainability IEA PVPS, Task 8: VLSPV 12

13 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 13

14 Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives EREC & Greenpeace (June 2010) 14

15 Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives 15

16 Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives 16

17 IEA Solar PV Roadmap (2010) 17

18 IEA Solar PV Roadmap (2010) retail prices wholesale prices 18

19 Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives Support reaching EU 2020 and beyond targets 19

20 EU PV industry vision Courtesy M. Lippert, SAFT GW Indicative Share of demand by 2020 Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12% (need flexible grid) Accelerated Scenario: 6% Baseline Scenario: 4%

21 Load and electricity feed-in [GW] Last und Stromeinspeisung [GW] PV feed-in and network load Week with Woche maximum des maximalen PV production PV-Ertrags (Germany) Conventional Konv. KW Wind (17 GW) 5 GWp PV 10 GWp PV 15 GWp PV 20 GWp PV 80GW 25 GWp PV 30 GWp PV Day Tag der of the Woche week Courtesy Martin Braun (ISET / Fraunhofer IWES) & Winfried Hoffmann (EPIA) 21

22 Solar Europe Industry Initiative PV CSP PV technology development & demonstration in support of EU 2020 targets and beyond 22

23 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 23

24 IEA Solar PV Roadmap (2010) 24

25 IMEC Cell & module technologies ( flat plate ) Commercial: wafer-based crystalline silicon - monocrystalline (cut) - multicrystalline (cut) - ribbons ( 82% of 2009 global market) Commercial: thin films - silicon - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) ( 18% of 2009 global market) Nuon Helianthos Konarka Nanosolar Pilot production and laboratory: emerging and novel technologies - super-low-cost concepts (printed organic & inorganic, etc.) - super-high-efficiency concepts 25

26 Cell & module technologies ( flat plate ) Commercial: wafer-based crystalline silicon typical module efficiencies 13 ~ 19% Commercial: thin films typical module efficiencies 6 ~ 12% Pilot production and laboratory: emerging and novel technologies pilot module efficiencies 2 ~ 11% (most not yet commercially available) 26

27 Content Solar energy for heat, electricity and fuels Solar electricity: what s needed for impact? Ambitions, scenarios and initiatives for large-scale use The technology portfolio: state-of-the-art and future Hot issues: renewable vs sustainable? show stoppers for renewables? Grid parity: Holy Grail or hype? Outlook 27

28 Renewable vs sustainable: the global debate has started 28

29 Carbon footprint of selected energy technologies 29

30 Out of the (oil) frying pan, and into the (materials) fire? 30

31 Public support: not to be taken for granted 31

32 Grid parity : Holy Grail or hype? NRC, Technisch Weekblad, Translation turn-key system price generation cost not unique System prices show a wide range Grid parity insufficient for self-sustained markets Nevertheless: relevant and easy-to-communicate milestone, but need to develop transition strategies (subsidy markets selfsustained markets) 32

33 Outlook Solar electricity: it will come faster, cheaper and bigger than you (may) think 33

34 Greenpeace 34

35 Triggers for discussion A sustainable energy future without (direct) solar energy is not possible Specific (temporary) market incentives are needed to enable rapid, large-scale introduction of solar energy The total cost to bring PV to full competiveness is a few hundred billion Euros; peanuts for the world as a whole We can do more and faster than major scenarios suggest (e.g. 10% of electricity in 2050) 35

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