Hybrids & Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities

Transcription

1 Hybrids & Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities Pascal Colombani Chairman, Valeo Sharing Knowledge Conference Mövenpick Hotel by the Dead Sea, Jordan, March 1, 2010

2 Context and customer attitude Hybrid worlds and technical considerations ndustrialization and markets nfrastructures and new business models

3 Environmental concerns, Security of Supply, CO 2 Regulations L/ 100 km - g CO 2 /km USA JAPAN Federal EUROPE California? Source: nternational Energy Agency CO 2 Reductions driven by regulations AND enduser expectations 3

4 Millions of electric vehicles? EV / PHEV / HEV experimentations in Europe "The future belongs to the electric vehicle using electricity from the power plug" Martin Winterkorn, CEO Volkswagen, 2008 London Amsterdam Denmark Berlin "The Obama-Biden comprehensive New Energy for America plan will put 1 million plug-in hybrid electric cars on the road by 2015" Barack Obama, President of the United States Strasbourg Munich "Millions of electric vehicles will be rolling on German roads within the next 20 years" Jürgen Gro mann, CEO RWE Portugal Bregenz "Americans need one electric car per household. That's 100 million cars right there. And it can be done" Shai Agassi, CEO Better Plance Spain Monaco Milan, Pisa & Roma Nice to have or must have? Source: A.T. Kearney 4

5 Automotive demand Alternative Drive in the Future* Europe USA Japan China Which System would you prefer? Natural gas drive (combustion engine driven by natural gas) Hybrid drive (combination of electric engine and combustion engine) 12,7% 4,1% 2.1% 8,5% 12,5% 1,7% 26,6% 37,1% 21,2% 34,5% 15,7% 41,2% Hydrogen drive (combustion engine driven by hydrogen) Ethanol drive (combustion engine driven by ethanol respectively bi-fuel,ethanol + petrol) Fuel cell (hydrogen fuel cell supplying the electric engine with electricity) Don't know Don t consid. Alt. drive ,4% 8,6% 6,1% 8,8% 7,3% 3,1% 9,2% 18,6% 2,1% 4,2% 5,7% 7,5% 4,7% 3,8% 7,8% 6,3% 48,6% 29,1% 7,4% 34,3% 20,1% 46,2% 3,4% 8,2% 20,9% 17,1% 21.0% n % n % n % n % *Brand new car Buyers : 1790 *Brand new car Buyers : 782 * Prospective Car Buyers, n = * Prospective Car Buyers, n =

6 EV technologies' CO 2 equation is not obvious, depending on the power source and traditional engines improvements CO 2 emissions well to wheel balance for an average car - CO 2 g/km - Well Tank Wheel Fuel/Gasoline * Gasoline Hybrid (1) Fuel/Gasoline 2020 estimate (2) * * * * 90% reduction Electric drive 95% nuclear power and renewables European average electricity mix (3) 0% nuclear power and renewables ~15% reduction Notes: Source: (1) Gasoline hybrid assumed to have 25% lower fuel consumption in combined city and highway driving (2) 30% reduction in oil consumption in 2020 (3) 35% nuclear and renewables in 2009 A.T. Kearney 6

7 Two hybrid worlds Micro to Mild Hybrid World Hybridization aiming at assisting the combustion engine Valeo launched their 1 st Stop- Start in 2004 with Valeo s StARS (belt drive) system on the Citroën C3. Reinforced starters have been added to complete our micro-hybrid offer EV to Full Hybrid World Hybridization aiming at running the vehicle by electric propulsion From 1995 to 2005, Valeo developed electric drivetrain systems for the French OEM s Peugeot/Citroën and Renault More than EV vehicles, more than 1 billion km driven StARS ReStart 7

8 Hybrid / Electrical Vehicles on the market Stop-Start Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-n Hybrid Full Electric BYD F3DM Nissan Leaf Ford Fusion Toyota Prius 3 imiev Smart mhd Smart BMW 1&3 Stop & Start Mercedes S400 Saturn View Honda nsight Saturn Aura + Engine Assistance + Kinetic Energy Recovery Toyota Prius3 + Electric Take-off GM Volt Renault ZE + Electric Drive 8

9 The Electric Vehicle landscape will be a continuum of powertrain solutions Future Passenger Car powertrain Portfolio Powertrain concept Combustion engine Primary and secondary powertrain Gasoline / Diesel Primary and secondary energy storage Conventional tank Hybrids (series / parallel) Medium size electromotor Small battery Plug-in Hybrid Medium size gasoline / diesel Medium size battery Electric vehicle Electromotor Large size battery Fuel cells Fuel cell H2 tank Source: A.T. Kearney 9

10 Lithium-ion battery, a major building block of EV Lithium-ion battery production & assembly value chain Precursors Cathode active mat. Cell materials Anode active mat. Electrolytes Separators Electrode base material Cells Electrode processing Cells Battery pack Battery pack Electronics Recycling End product of VC step: ntermediate pro-ducts between raw materials (often from mining), e.g. cobalt metal, lithium, and active materials Powder form Active material ready-touse for cathode production at cell supplier Powder form Active material ready-touse for anode production at cell supplier Powder form Electrolytes ready-to-use for cell manufacturing Powder form or liquid Example: CoO2 LiCoO2 Graphite 3M's flourinated lithium salts Separators ready-to-use for cell manufacturing Polyolefinbased film/ semipermeable membrane or polymermatrix incl. ceramics LG Chem's 'Safety Reinforced Separator' coated with ceramics Complete cells based on electrodes, separators and electrolytes A123's high power "AHR32113 M1Ultra" cell Complete battery pack consisting of cells, battery management system, cooling system and housing Valence's automotive battery pack Within the Lithium-ion battery value chain, initial steps are material driven, later ones are mechanics & electronics Raw materials and waste after deconstruct ing the battery pack Various metals, e.g. cobalt Source: A.T. Kearney 10

11 Asian suppliers dominate battery markets OEM have struck alliances on cells and packs with key suppliers Key player groups entering automotive LB market and profit pool - Estimated margin and turnover 2020, bn$, % - Today's player groups Raw materials comp. Chemical companies Cell & pack manufacturers Precursors Cell materials Cells Battery pack Recycling 10-15% Margin Market size, bn$ 6-10% * 9,1 18,7 * 6-12% 51,4 * 5-10% 86,7 * 0-5% 0,6 * New Player groups Raw materials comp. Chemical companies Cell & pack manufacturers OEM suppliers OEMs Source: A.T. Kearney 11

12 Longer term considerations Lower cost Li-on batteries Optimization of engine electronic management Optimization of comfort, security, lighting (LED), thermal equipment, solar panels More radical solutions with a rethinking of vehicle architecture Valeo 2009

13 Keio University Prototype 13

14 Constraints remain battery cost, autonomy, and infrastructure for charge Battery cost will decrease but remain high Fast recharge of battery Fast change of battery Deployment and cost of infrastructures Valeo 2009

15 World Powertrain Market Hypothesis: Oil barrel ~$ , $ , $ , Battery: 400 /kwh 2012,300 /kwh 2020 CONVENTONAL Emergence of StopStart Stop-Start Emergence of Electric FULL MLD EV 95% 5% Source: PTE Hybrid Database Release July Extract from PTE TDP

16 New EV-mobility business model will arise, e.g. Renault & Better Place or Bolloré concept The Renault-Better Place project (srael) The Bolloré concept "Raw" vehicle (without engine) Battery ~ Power supply & assistance Partnerships Leasing Battery swap Fast charging Normal charging No specific infrastructure Optimal geography Partnerships Political support Technology Sourcing 50 km Source: A.T. Kearney 16

17 Other players can be attracted by new business models in the EV-mobility market Distribution of electric cars Charging of electric vehicles Charging nfrastructure Network of ~ 500 agencies Own maintenance network Possible mandatory pressure of public authorities to install charging stations to get additional concessions Fuel Distribution Use of commercial presence Knowledge of automotive market, as well as maintenance capacities Possible "dual" offering: EV-week & petrolweekend Pro's: diversification & image, control of distribution turnover erosion Con's: resale of electricity with limited added-value Source: A.T. Kearney 17

18 A wide range of stakeholders will be shaping the EV landscape Users Energy companies Automotive players (OEMs & suppliers) Equipment providers Public authorities Source: A.T. Kearney 18

19 Major actors as well as new entrants have a potential to occupy the EV landscape Fleets Consumer associations Leasing and financing companies Battery suppliers Utilities Users nfrastructure Energy companies Automotive players Equipment providers Chemical companies Petroleum Companies Public authorities Municipalities and governments Regulative / tax / subsidies Electronics Communication Source: A.T. Kearney 19