WORKSHOP 6: ROADMAP TO 100 G CO 2

Transcription

1 WORKSHOP 6: ROADMAP TO 100 G CO 2 /KM WELL-TO-WHEEL PANELISTS: Neville JACKSON, Ricardo, Chief Technology and Innovation offi cer Andre DOUAUD, Automobile & Energy consulting Joël FOUCARD, Michelin Jean-Jacques CARRE, GKN driveline Electric/Hybrid development, Director of Advanced Engineering, control products, vehicle integration GKN Automotive & GKN plc Kristen de la ROSA, Argonne National Laboratory (US), Dir of Adv Veh Tech Competition (US Argonne Nat Lab) Jean DELSEY, INRETS Research Director Petr DOLEJSI, ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association), Director Mobility and Sustainable Transport Paul EVERITT, SMMT, Chief Executive Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Michel FORISSIER, Valeo, Marketing, Research and Development Director for Valeo Powertrain Systems Hans-Georg FRISCHKORN, VDA, Vice-President Peter GEBHARD, Audi, Head of Vehicle Physics, AUDI AG Philip GOTT, IHS, Managing Director IHS Automotive Gautam KALGHATGI, ARAMCO, Senior Scientist Nicolas LEBIGOT, CCFA, Manager Environmental and Technical Affairs Nicholas LEE, PSA Group London Offi ce Director Karl-Heinz ZIEROCK, BMU (German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature protection and nuclear safety) 47 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS

2 The brief for this workshop was to define the macro scenarios which would help to reach an average of 100 g CO 2 /km well-to-wheel for new vehicles, in the best economic and technical conditions. This could include the combination and optimization of the ICE/gasoline system, hybridization, resorting to electric motorization and the introduction of non-fossil fuels such as biofuels, natural gas or other low carbon alternatives. More specifically, how close are car makers to meeting 2012 target in Europe (130 g CO 2 /km tank-to-wheel)?, how will they achieve the next target of 95 g CO 2 /km (tank-to-wheel) by 2020?, how and when can we achieve 60 g CO 2 /km (tankto-wheel)? The workshop addressed this brief via some structured sessions that explored: The view from the regulators and policymakers The view from the automotive industry Future consumer requirements and vehicle characteristics The potential for future technologies Outlook and key messages REGULATION & POLICY Many governments view both the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and energy security as high priority policies. Some have even targeted carbon emissions reduction in legally binding legislation. From a regulatory perspective, it is clear that there is increasing pressure in all major markets to address CO 2 emissions. This has generally been specified as fleet average tailpipe CO 2 emissions or fuel economy based on new vehicle sales and on a tank-to-wheel basis. A summary of these regulatory pressures is shown below: WORKSHOPS Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin

3 The target for Europe is second only to Japan in terms of fleet average emissions. One of the key issues that emerge from this type of analysis is that there are a range of different processes and drive cycles to quantify fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. This can drive the need for different approaches or different technologies dependent on specific regulations. There is clear recognition that more needs to be done to ensure that drive cycle fuel economy is more closely aligned to real world consumer experiences. A more consistent global approach with common processes and standards would enable economies of scale and enable more competitive low carbon products to be introduced to market. There are also concerns that changes of government with different views and priorities leads to instability and makes long term forward planning very difficult. Specific examples include the differing priorities for energy security against lower carbon emissions, the trade off between vehicle weight reduction and safety and the need to define measures that address well-to-wheel rather than tank-to-wheel carbon emissions sooner rather than later. Future transport energy is a critical area of government policy as it directly relates to carbon reduction strategies. It is important that governments work towards integrated energy policies. This is specifically relevant to the delivery of increased vehicle electrification, where energy for transport is provided by the electricity grid. Both federal and local governments see electrification of transport as a major focus area and are providing public funding for a range of measures including vehicle subsidies, targeted R&D, charging infrastructure and other non fiscal incentives to encourage purchase and preferential use of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. to improve safety and improvements in vehicle function and performance. The automotive industry represents 10.2% of EU manufacturing employment including 3.5 million direct and 9.1 million indirect jobs. The automotive industry in Europe produces the largest private sector investment in R&D at 26 billion/year and generates 427 billion of tax revenues. To ensure that the European automotive industry remains internationally competitive, it is important that regulation remains in balance globally with competing nations and produces products that consumers want to purchase. The automotive industry is very supportive of public/ private partnerships between industry and government to help achieve this balance. There is also a need to develop integrated industrial and government policies that balance regulation with fiscal incentives, consumer information and education, public support for R&D and public sector procurement. Whilst the industry also sees electrification as an important contribution to future reductions in carbon emissions, this is seen as only one measure or technology critical to future carbon reduction targets. The general consensus from the automotive community is that there will need to be a breakthrough on battery technology, particularly cost per unit energy stored, to enable battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to progress from a niche market supported by subsidies to a competitive unsubsidized mass market product. This is thought to be possible but is likely to take some time and during this period, it is important to address a range of other technologies that will be critical in reaching targets in the 2020 to 2030 timeframe. AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY VIEW Whilst it is clear that the automotive industry is committed to the need for sustainable and lower carbon transport, it is also very much focused on the need to ensure that the rate at which carbon emissions are reduced is balanced with industrial capability and economics. Substantial reductions in fleet average fuel consumption have been delivered by the automotive industry with a 22% reduction in fleet average CO 2 since 1995 despite increases in vehicle weight 49 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS

4 Source: McKinsey study for the BMU FUTURE VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS Whilst there are likely to be differences in product mix and specific technologies, there is general consensus within the automotive community on the probable introduction and timing of new passenger car technologies to reduce carbon emissions. An example from the UK is shown below. This shows that innovations in IC based powertrains will be vital in supporting the transition to hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Reductions in vehicle weight and drag reduction are also necessary. In the longer term, there may be potential to introduce fuel cell based vehicles if challenges in on-board hydrogen storage and supply can be overcome. It is also clear that the investment required to bring these technologies to market in the timeframe required to meet new regulations is probably more than the automotive community can afford on its own. It is therefore important that future technologies introduced to the mass market utilize as much existing manufacturing assets and infrastructure as possible. It is also important that future vehicles meet the requirements and aspirations of consumers. Increasing urbanization, an ageing population, car sharing and changes in consumer mobility preferences such as car sharing will all be key factors that will influence future vehicle characteristics. There is also a clear preference from industry that future fuel efficiency or CO 2 regulations are technology neutral and are based on good science and analysis. An example would be the need to move towards well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions to include fuel or energy conversions in the supply chain. In future, a move towards life cycle CO 2 emissions including materials preparation, manufacture, in service use and disposal/ recycling should allow better long term decisions to be made. WORKSHOPS Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin

5 To achieve substantial further reductions to 60 g/km fleet average emissions will require a transformation in the market to clean or low carbon energy. Scenario analysis by IHS to look at a range of future technologies and energy combinations shows that 60 g/km well-to-wheel is possible but needs a transition to hybrid and plug-in hybrid technology that can make use of low carbon biofuels and electricity. 51 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS

6 FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES & BENEFITS The demand for new fuel efficiency and/or low carbon technologies has been a major driver for the automotive technology suppliers. A broad range of new technologies are now available that were only ideas only a few years ago. These range from weight saving and low loss technologies in driveline and new lightweight designs and materials for vehicle components through to more efficient and less costly electric motors and power electronics to drive them. The challenge for the technology suppliers is to reduce the cost of these technologies to a level where they are attractive to the vehicle manufacturers and ultimately, consumers. Many of the electrification technologies are still too expensive to be considered as mainstream technologies without fiscal incentives. However, electrification of the powertrain has an evolutionary path ranging from micro hybrid or regenerative charging systems coupled to efficient combustion engines to full electric drivelines. Progress is being made to reduce costs but this is probably the limiting factor for market penetration. WORKSHOPS Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin

7 Source: Valeo The most cost effective technologies to improve fuel efficiency at present are associated with more conventional combustion engines. These include downsizing to reduce the swept volume of the engine to reduce friction and other losses whilst boosting the engine to maintain or even improve performance. However, there are also a range of other technologies that deliver incremental improvements at either component or system level that enable future products to consistently reduce CO 2 emissions without compromise in customer expectations or utility. 53 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS

8 The current view is that the limit for cost efficiency for mass market vehicles is around 40 Euros/gram CO 2. Technologies that cost more than this will only be introduced if they can provide additional customer benefits or as a more limited niche vehicle that supports development of brand identities. The premium vehicle market offers more opportunities for the introduction of new technologies but by definition has less impact on fleet average CO 2 emissions. OUTLOOK AND KEY MESSAGES Stable long term regulation is vital in achieving future targets but should be globally harmonized, technology neutral and address energy production and use Regulation is a vital requirement to achieve significant reductions in CO 2 CO 2 is a global issue and we need international harmonization of regulations/drive cycles to deliver efficient and competitive solutions (economies of scale) Regulations should be technology neutral Industry should be able to explore and deliver the best technical solutions Industry requires internationally stable and consistent regulations with long-term direction and realistic targets Future CO 2 targets should be based on energy production as well as use and should involve all stakeholders in the energy chain Low carbon vehicles must be affordable in the long term but need initial consumer incentives supported by co-ordinated information programs. Finance is also needed for R&D and new fuelling infrastructures Affordability is the key barrier to mass market penetration of low carbon technologies Initial market can be supported by fiscal incentives and other benefits such as preferential parking, use of bus lanes etc. Longer term, it is essential that low carbon products meet consumer demands at a competitive price without intervention We need an integrated approach combining incentives with consumer education and information on the benefits of efficient, low carbon vehicles Fiscal policy should include support for R&D and new infrastructure requirements in addition to vehicle subsidies WORKSHOPS Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin

9 Improvements in vehicle efficiency and some degree of electrification will be required to achieve 100 g/km well-to-wheel. This will also require low carbon electricity and some use of biofuels. Energy security may drive different technologies in some markets The target of 100 g/km CO 2 well-to-wheel will require incremental improvements in vehicle efficiency addressing combustion engine improvements and fuel reformulation, weight reduction, aerodynamic performance and rolling resistance The expert group believes that the 100 g/km target for new vehicles will not be met without some degree of electrification Grid connected vehicles will require low carbon electricity It is possible that we will also require low carbon gaseous and liquid fuels such as biofuels to meet future targets The conflict between low carbon energy and energy security could lead to variations in vehicle technologies dependent on Government policies. 55 Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin 2011 WORKSHOPS

10 TOTAL GROUP - A TECHNOLOGICAL PARTNER OF CHALLENGE BIBENDUM 2011 Number one in the international oil and gas business, Total Group also plays a key role in the chemicals industry. At Challenge Bibendum 2011 in Berlin, Total brought to bear the various facets of its commitment to mobility issues. At the Exhibition Center hosting Challenge Bibendum 2011 in Berlin, the chemicals operation of Total Group presented its latest car-related innovations. In fact, issues of lightweight construction and respect for the environment are gaining importance across the automotive sector and remain a key focus of Total Group s chemicals subsidiaries such as Atotech, Bostik, Hutchinson and Total Petrochemicals. TOTAL EXCELLIUM - the name for the range of new generation fuels used by the vehicles participating in the eleventh Challenge Bibendum. Energy efficiency and CO 2 emissions were also measured. «Challenge Bibendum has become an important platform in the field of sustainable development and future mobility. That s another reason for us to demonstrate that traditional fuels will continue to play a key role in tomorrow s mobility», said Hans- Christian Gützkow, director of TOTAL Germany. Attending from Paris, Jean-François Minster, Director of Research at Total, addressed a public debate at the event s Strategic Day. Subject of workshop: «Energy and Transport». Minster described the multiple prospective activities of the Group in this field, ranging from innovations in lubricants and fuels to more energy efficient lightweight materials for vehicles and alternative energy sources such as hydrogen for propulsion and traction systems. Total operates two hydrogen stations in Berlin and is due to open another two. In this context, Total will produce wind-powered «green» hydrogen at «the service station of the future» for the future Berlin-Schönefeld airport as part of a pilot project run with a partner company. This ecological hydrogen will subsequently be available to customers coming to fill up» their fuel cell vehicles at dedicated charging stations in Berlin. Total not only participated in the exhibition and expert debates; it also put up an entire mobile service station alongside the Challenge Bibendum 2011 test track in front of the historic hangar of Berlin Tempelhof airport. The vehicles taking part in the rallies were thus refuelled with diesel or TOTAL EXCELLIUM petrol. TOTAL EXCELLIUM is the name for a range of fuels combining several advantages: better engine protection, lower consumption and a reduction in polluting emissions. Not to mention their highly developed engine cleaning properties that help to keep engine parts clean and reduce clogging. Dedicated additives help reduce friction between sensitive parts, thereby enhancing engine efficiency. This results in a decrease in fuel consumption and polluting emissions. For further information on the TOTAL EXCELLIUM range of fuels, please look up WORKSHOPS Michelin Challenge Bibendum - Berlin