Electric Automobility Revolution or Evolution?

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1 Electric Automobility Revolution or Evolution? Dr Paul Nieuwenhuis Centre for Automotive Industry Research & Electric Vehicle Centre of Excellence, Cardiff University

2 Evs are older than either petrol or diesel cars The first ones date back to the 1840s Paul Nieuwenhuis

3 By 1900 EVs had 1/3 of the US market Even Henry Ford s wife drove an EV

4 They have long been particularly suited to certain applications But were not seen as cool 4

5 until the GM EV 1

6 EVs are actually fun to drive

7 Our ENEVATE survey shows that once people have driven an EV, most are convinced

8 ENEVATE EU Interreg IVB project trying to capture lessons from the various EV experiments taking place in NW Europe. Novel features of our survey: 1. We only surveyed people who had driven an EV Our scope is international NW Europe

9 Future Electric Vehicle Intentions Following their participation in an electric vehicle pilot and initial questionnaire, we asked respondents if they were now more or less likely to purchase an electric vehicle in the future

10 Future EV purchase/use 200 Future EV Purchase More Likely Less Likely No opinion

11 SO WHY ARE PEOPLE NOT BUYING EVS?

12 2 reasons: cost range (anxiety)

13 THEY ALSO REPRESENT RISK ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN

14 New products New clients New technologies, new suppliers How will the market respond? How do I sell these? What if something breaks? Range anxiety; cost Who invests? Who makes money? What s in it for us? Do we need more capacity? Smart grids? Component supply OEM vehicle build, conversion Retailer sales, distribution, maintenance End User e mobility demand Infrastructure energy distribution Energy Supply electricity production Risks are perceived differently at all stages along this value chain 14

15 NEW BUSINESS MODELS MAY BE NEEDED

16 current business model different parties capture different parts of the VC Raw materials Material suppliers Component suppliers Module suppliers Vehicle assemblers/o EMs dealers Roads, bridges, etc. Customer/end user Oil extraction Oil refining Fuel distribution Aftermarket

17 Car manufacturers manage to capture only a small share of the automotive value chain... energy is delivered by the aftermarket suppliers 20% car manufacturers 18% Dealers 5% Aftersales 57% 2012 Paul Nieuwenhuis & Peter Wells 17

18 Oil infrastructure (simplified) Oil wells ship truck pipelines refinery Fuel stations Some firms operate a business model that captures all of this

19 2 core technologies: internal combustion engines and all steel bodies

20 A brief history of mass car production 3 elements combine ORIGINS CONSOLIDATION SURVIVAL STRATEGIES Styling, color Model range Model change GM 1919 GMAC 1919 Trade in Pull thru Rapid die change Budd 1914 All steel body TPS Platform strategies Mass producing mechanical components Dodge 1915 Monocoque Citroen 1934 Kanban JIT Etc. Ford 1908 Moving assembly line 1914 All steel body 1925 Paul Nieuwenhuis

21 Ford v Budd: Technology in a modern assembly plant (source: Nieuwenhuis & Wells 2007) : Process Origin Typical cost (Budd) Press shop Budd 200million Typical cost (Ford) Die sets/model Budd million Body-in-white Budd million Paint plant Budd million Preassembly Ford million Trim/final assy Ford million Engines Ford 500mn/plant Totals mn mn 2013 Paul Nieuwenhuis 21

22 Is this a sensible business model? Many OEMs struggle to survive pressure for a new BM may arise from inside the existing system 22

23 The drive to EV puts new pressure on the system it undermines the internal combustion engine while the need for weight reduction to compensate for battery weight puts pressure on the all steel body.

24 BEV business model? Raw materials Material suppliers Component suppliers Module suppliers Vehicle assemblers/o EMs dealers Roads, bridges, etc. Customer/end user coal, NG, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, etc. Electricity generators Electricity distribution Aftermarket Decentralised renewable power generation

25 EV energy infrastructure (simplified) NG coal nuclea r hydro wind Power plant grid Charging points domestic public solar Local renewables

26 EV additional requirements Charging points home and public. Increased generating capacity. Improved distribution capacity. More decentralised solar, microhydro and wind generation with local distribution. Possibility for smart grids. Need to interface with new players.

27 IS THE MOVE TO EV INEVITABLE?

28 Electrification of the car path dependence? e.g.: powertrain developments magneto BEV Battery & coil Self starter Electronic fuel injection Electronic ignition Engine managem ent Hybrid electric Plug in hybrid FCV? 28

29 EV = multiple pathways, shared technologies BEV Electrification of the car (Plug-in) Hybrid Fuel cell car 29

30 It will need a rethink from customers Purchase price of EVs is higher. This is largely due to the cost of the battery leasing is an option. Running costs are lower: fuel is cheaper EVs need less maintenance EVs are more durable For BEV people may want a charging infrastructure. Range is an issue of BEV. But can be solved with PIHEV. 30

31 EVS ARE AN INCENTIVE DRIVEN MARKET

32 Norway Norway has around 15 years experience of private electric vehicle use. Like all EV markets, this is incentive-driven. EV Incentives in Oslo: Free entry to city Use of bus lanes Free parking Free charging No sales tax No road tax 32

33 WHAT ACTIVITIES SHOULD NEW BUSINESS MODELS CAPTURE?

34 What does the concept of and integrated approach of EVs integration look like? Automotive R&D Automotive Business Models Social R&D Supplier R&D Electricity Markets Business Models Utilities? TIER component supply OEM vehicle build, conversion Retailer sales, distribution, maintenance End-User e-mobility demand Infrastructure energy distribution Energy Supply electricity production Intelligent infrastructure / Smart Grids Better Place?

35 autolib CASE STUDY

36 Autolib - Paris EVCE

37 Autolib Autolib is run by the Groupe Bolloré. Integrating battery technology, customer interface and project management. Unique design of car developed by CeComp and built by Pininfarina in Italy after mainstream car makers expressed no interest. EVCE

38 Autolib Bolloré makes chargers, card readers, and batteries. and manages the call centre. Providing a 1-stop shop for the 47 communities in the Ile de France signed up to the scheme. When local authorities invest, Autolib pays for parking spaces. Scheme expected to break even in 2014 and return a profit from then onwards. 680 charging stations and 2000 cars by December EVCE

39 What does the concept of and integrated approach of EVs integration look like? Automotive R&D Automotive Business Models Social R&D Supplier R&D Electricity Markets Business Models TIER component supply OEM Retailer sales, distribution, maintenance End-User e-mobility demand Infrastructure energy distribution Energy Supply electricity production Intelligent infrastructure / Smart Grids Bolloré captures a large part of the value chain 39

40 SURROUNDING THE END USER WITH A RING OF MOBILITY SERVICE?

41 Is private ownership of cars on the way out? Connected car death of motoring? Cars become less affordable. Many cars already not owned by end user: lease cars, company cars, personal leasing. Car sharing schemes/car clubs offer alternative. Younger generation less carobsessed different priorities.

42 OTHER FACTORS IMPACTING ON FUTURE BUSINESS MODELS

43 Adaptability New service, maintenance and repair regimes need to be developed and introduced. New skills need to be acquired and transferred. New aftermarket opportunities will arise, but entrepreneurs need to be able to respond to these. Regulatory and legislative structures need to be adapted.

44 As in use (well to wheel) CO2 emissions come down, embedded emissions rise as a proportion of the total Source: Ricardo/Carbon Trust

45 The inertia in the system is often under estimated Sunk investments in existing IC and steel body technology are considerable. Risk reduction is essential, hence: Transition is initially on the margins; slow and small scale; e.g. a new sub brand.

46 e.g. BMW i series P Nieuwenhuis

47 Example: Adaptability Peugeot Phase I Phase II Phase III Laminated steel products, toolmaking Household appliances, radios Bicycles, Cars, Motorcycles, logistics Ice skates, crinoline frames, sewing machines Paul Nieuwenhuis 47

48 Thank you happy motoring EVCE

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