Electric Vehicles in Oregon Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption. John Gartner Research Director

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1 Electric Vehicles in Oregon Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption John Gartner Research Director

2 Introduction Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy ecosystem. Sector Focus: Smart Energy Smart Grid Smart Transportation Smart Industry Smart Buildings Research Services: Research Reports Subscription Advisory Services Consulting & Custom Research Go-To-Market Strategy Custom Market Analysis Market Sizing & Forecasts Primary Research Technology Evaluation Commercial Due Diligence Competitive Benchmarking Strategic Advisory Sessions Copyright 2012 Pike Research 2

3 Advisory Services SMART ENERGY SMART GRID SMART TRANSPORTATION Renewable Energy Smart Meters Electric Vehicles Distributed Generation Smart Energy Home Alternative Fuel Vehicles Fuel Cells Smart Grid Infrastructure Energy Storage Microgrids Advanced Batteries Smart Grid Security Utility Innovations Smart Grid Communications SMART INDUSTRY SMART BUILDINGS Energy Management Building Systems Green IT Green Buildings Industrial Innovations Copyright 2012 Pike Research 3

4 Smart Transportation Practice SMART TRANSPORTATION Electric Vehicles Alternative Fuel Vehicles Copyright 2012 Pike Research 4

5 Electric Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Battery Electric Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Electric Vehicle Battery Technologies Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Consumer Attitudes, Preferences, and Behavior Reports Published: 2Q12 Total Cost of Ownership for Fleet Alternative Drivetrains 1Q12 Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicles Batteries 4Q11 Electric Vehicle Telematics 4Q11 Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey 4Q11 White Paper: Electric Vehicle Predictions for Q11 Vehicle to Grid Technologies 4Q11 Electric Vehicle Batteries 3Q11 Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks 3Q11 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment 3Q11 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts 2Q11 Neighborhood Electric Vehicles 2Q11 Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment 1Q11 Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts 1Q11 Electric Vehicle Cyber Security 4Q10 Electric Vehicles in Asia Pacific 3Q10 Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems 3Q10 Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Fleet Markets Future Reports (Subject to Change): 2Q12 Electric Vehicles in China 3Q12 Plug-in Electric Vehicles 3Q12 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment in Europe 3Q12 Electric Buses 3Q12 Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment 3Q12 Vehicle to Building Technologies 3Q12 Pike Pulse: Plug-in Electric Vehicles 3Q12 Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts 3Q12 Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts 3Q12 Pike Pulse: Electric Buses 4Q12 Pike Pulse: Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment 4Q12 Vehicle to Grid Technologies 4Q12 Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey 4Q12 Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for Q12 Electric Vehicles: Europe Copyright 2012 Pike Research 5

6 PEV Model Availability Available Now: Chevrolet Volt Fisker Karma Mitsubishi i-miev Nissan Leaf Tesla Roadster Think City Toyota Prius Plug-in Coming in 2012: Coda Sedan Daimler Smartfortwo Electric Drive Ford Focus EV Fiat 500 EV Tesla Model S Toyota Rav4 Coming in 2013: Audi A3 E-Tron Audi r8 E-Tron BMW i3 Cadillac ELR Ford Fusion Energi Ford C-Max Energi Mercedes A Class E-Cell Coming in 2014: Tesla Model X BMW i8 Fisker Atlantic Copyright 2012 Pike Research 6

7 PEV Consumer Trends 40% of respondents are Extremely Interested or Very Interested in a PEV or BEV with a range of 40 to 100 miles Price sensitivity analysis indicates that the optimal price point of a PEV is $23,750 84% of respondents drive 40 miles or less per day PEV interest has declined somewhat during 3 years of surveys (from a high of 48% in 2009) Men with high incomes (over $100,000) and Caucasians are the most likely targets for PEV adoption Consumer Interest in Plug-in Electric Vehicles Not at all interested 13% Extremely interested 15% Not very interested 13% Very interested 25% Somewhat interested / somewhat disinterested 34% (n=1,051) Copyright 2012 Pike Research 7 (Source: Pike Research)

8 PEV Demand in Oregon Plug-PEV sales will grow from 1,640 to 11,241 annually between 2012 and ,060 PEVs will be sold in Oregon through 2017, including 43% BEVs PHEVs: Small battery pack with electric range of up to 40 miles and gas engine to extend range BEVs: All electric vehicles with range of 80 to 200 miles Portland metro area will represent approximately 82% of all PEV sales 12,000 Annual Sales of PEVs, Oregon: ,000 PHEV BEV 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2012 Pike Research 8

9 Key Contributing Factors to PEV Forecast Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) include both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. There are a number of factors that are included in Pike Research s forecast model that vary between national and state level forecasts depending on the data available: National forecasts include: Government policies, including federal purchase incentives and anticipated fuel economy rules Product rollout plans and availability Ownership and interest in hybrid vehicles Economic growth Average gasoline costs State forecasts include: State population and vehicle ownership State demographics compared to hybrid owner demographics State government policies, including incentives Number of electric vehicle charging equipment (EVCE) units installed Manufacturers PEV rollout plans and availability Opinion of plug-in electric vehicles, including number and activity of advocacy groups Statewide gasoline prices Copyright 2012 Pike Research 9

10 Factors Impacting National PEV Demand Federal purchase incentives (between $2,500 and $7,500 per vehicle) are anticipated to remain in place throughout the forecast period Elimination or reduction of incentives would have a negative impact on demand at the national level Increasing traditional internal combustion engine vehicle fuel economy has a negative impact on PEV sales due to decreasing cost of operation for higher fuel economy vehicles This is much more difficult to quantify and is more likely to have an impact in the latter years of the forecast Battery pack costs are anticipated to fall 34% by 2017, but for several years this is not anticipated to impact the cost of BEVs as manufacturers increase the battery pack size Manufacturers are expected to use cost decreases in 2012 to 2014 as a way to increase the range of vehicles while maintaining relatively steady pricing After 2014, Pike Research anticipates lower battery costs will be reflected in pricing of the vehicles Copyright 2012 Pike Research 10

11 Details Regarding Oregon s PEV Forecast Oregon s population of 3.8 million and new vehicle sales of 110,000 (for all vehicle classes) in 2011 were used as a baseline for calculating potential plug-in electric vehicle forecasts The following assumptions are included in the forecast: Pike Research created an EV Positive Opinion Index based on our consumer survey results. Oregon is ranked 6 th with an index rating of 1.96 (a rating of 1.0 matches the national average). In 2017 Oregon is anticipated to have the second highest percentage (5.4%) of PEV vehicles. Oregon overall is ranked 7 th for sales of PEVs The combination of vehicle availability and strong advocacy from automotive manufacturers in the state will help maintain Oregon s adoption lead over other states Portland MSA has the highest correlation to HEV ownership of any region in the United States Copyright 2012 Pike Research 11

12 Demand Drivers in Oregon Many of the same forces that drive demand at a national level are in play in Oregon, as well: Federal incentives of up to $7,500 per vehicle High cost of petroleum based fuels Economy and growth of automobile sales PEV demand in Oregon: Concentration of EVCEs in Oregon enhances consumer demand for PEVs West Coast Electric Highway along I-5 enables lengthy EV driving However, while EVCE is an indicator, many communities may find public EVCE will go largely unused as commuters charge their vehicles in the evening and then drive to work, never using the public infrastructure Short average daily driving (18.5 miles in Portland) is compatible with PEV driving range Strong hybrid ownership indicative of interest in green vehicles and driving electric Copyright 2012 Pike Research 12

13 Scenarios Impacting Demand Key incentives that could positively impact Oregon demand include: Higher than expected average fuel costs could contribute to increased demand Currently, Pike Research includes fuel cost estimates of the national average at $3.79/gallon gasoline in 2011 growing to $5.38/gallon gasoline in 2018 In general, for gasoline prices to have impact on sales, Pike Research anticipates that fuel prices will need to be higher by about 10% or more Assuming a 10% higher fuel cost (e.g. $4.17/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect between 2% and 4% increase in PEV sales If gasoline prices fall by 10% (e.g. $3.41/gallon in 2012), Pike Research would expect PEV sales to fall at a rate of 5% or greater. The availability of public EVCE is anticipated to have an impact on PEV sales With an increase of 50% more EVCE in an area, Pike Research would anticipate up to 10% increase in demand in that ZIP code Copyright 2012 Pike Research 13

14 Vehicles and Charging PHEVs and Range Extended Vehicles: Charging at between 3.3 kw and 7.2 kw using standard J1772 AC connector Charge frequently in public locations to top off and prevent running on gasoline power Full charging requires up to 2 hours depending on battery size Do not currently support faster DC charging BEVs: Charging at between 3.3 kw and 7.2 kw using standard J1772 AC connector or at 50 kw or more using CHAdeMo or upcoming SAE combination connector Fast charging limited to commercial locations Full charging requires up to 8 hours using AC DC charging can provide 80% charge in 30 minutes or less Copyright 2012 Pike Research 14

15 EVSE Demand in Oregon EVSE sales will grow from 1,935 to 14,164 annually between 2012 and 2017 Percentage of residential EVSEs sold will slowly shrink as more EV owners rely primarily on public charging Fewer people charging at home increases the ratio of EVSE to PEV sales 16,000 Annual Sales of EVSE, Oregon: ,000 Commercial Residential 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2012 Pike Research 15

16 EVSE Utilization Trends Residential charging will remain the primary location, but will decrease from 67% to 56% of charging events by 2017 Commercial charging location breakdown: Public: retail, municipal, parking garages and lots, transit locations Workplace: employers Private: hotels, multi-family housing, fleets Location Percentage Splits for EV Charging Events, United States: 2017 Private, 16% Public, 14% Residential, 56% Workplace, 14% (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2012 Pike Research 16

17 EV Charging Impact on Utilities Most U.S. consumers will purchase home EVSE if possible and residential will be the most frequent charging location PEVs are expected to sell in clusters, with much higher penetration in affluent areas Several PEVs charging at 7 kw simultaneously can impact transformers and other distribution equipment Implementation of time-of-use and EV-specific rates will encourage off-peak charging and mitigate impact DC Charging at 50 kw is on demand and is expected to frequently occur at peak times EV charging networks and operators are looking to install stationary batteries to support DC charging to avoid demand charges and peak power consumption Copyright 2012 Pike Research 17

18 EVSE Vendor Overview Pike Pulse Grid: EVSE Vendors Others: ABB Efacec OpConnect PodPoint Schneider Electric SemaConnect Shorepower (Source: Pike Research) Copyright 2012 Pike Research 18

19 EVSE Future Developments Charging services companies like 350 Green, CarCharging Group, and EV Connect becoming major EVSE owners and operators Network EVSE operators are eyeing ancillary services (AS) as revenue stream Solutions for integrating EV charging with solar are developing Profitable business models for operating public EVSEs remain challenging EVSEs looking to integrate with home energy management systems Stationary energy storage (Li-ion batteries) will play a role in home energy and AS Wireless charging is in an experimental phase with several auto OEMs and the market is unlikely to materialize before 2015 Copyright 2012 Pike Research 19

20 Summary and Conclusions Growth of PEV sales in Oregon will likely be strongest in areas where large state universities are present or large populations of higher income hybrid owners reside The availability of public EVCE will generally lead the adoption of PEVs and can be used to help bolster growth However, there s more than just EVCEs: EVCEs best installation practices that are recognized around the country include: Streamlining the permitting process of businesses and residents who want to install EVCE o This should include coordination by permitting body with utilities, vehicle dealers, and installation contractors (electricians) to provide purchasers with a simplified road map to installation Offering localized grant programs that can help provide funding to purchase and install EVCE Copyright 2012 Pike Research 20

21 Summary and Conclusions After installation, providing awareness and access to maps for public EVCE networks will help build confidence in the PEV market The Rocky Mountain Institute s Project Get Ready provides detailed and proven strategies for promoting PEV adoption EV City Casebook from RMI, Clinton Climate Initiative, and IEA provides local recommendations Copyright 2012 Pike Research 21

22 Contact Us HEADQUARTERS 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO John Gartner Sales Inquiries: Carlton Bonilla Copyright 2012 Pike Research 22

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