Christophe Pillot GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS. Director

Transcription

1 GLOBAL MARKET ISSUES & TRENDS Christophe Pillot Director avicenne ENERGY Consumer Electronics, : Materials Requirements & Trends

2 Automotive, and Director, AVICENNE ENERGY +33() Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 213 xev market in 213 Forecasts

3 Million HEV powered by LIB Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 28 to 213 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, IIT 27 5 IIT (MARCH 211) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 IIT DEUTSCHE BANK (212) IIT (MARCH 21) 1 IIT 29,8,6,4 IIT 21 AAB REALITY AVICENNE ROLAND BERGER (211) ROLAND BERGER (212) AVICENNE ,2 AAB (212) Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 27, 28, 29, 21 & 211 AABC June

4 Tons of cathode / Year $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 2 Li-ion 15 NiMH Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH >2 M Tablets 195 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) ,5 2 1,5 1 2, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

5 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

6 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

7 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 213 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR ( ) Others (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 SLI 7

8 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 213: US $ 54 BILLION Battery market in 213 (M$) SLI Automotive 6 18 Other Applications Portable 16 Marine Other Applications 5 Medical devices Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS SLI Automotive Portable Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Telecom 4 Other Motive Other Motive 1 Forklift Forklift 2 Power Tools Power Tools E-Bikes E-Bikes Lead Acid LIB 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 8

9 M Wh M Wh LI-ION IN 213 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 M cells 39 MWh 12 M$ (2) CAGR 23/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, (1) Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, (1) Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Note: (1) 213: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others 9

10 M $ M $ LI-ION IN 213 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 5 M cells 39 MWh 12 M$ (2) CAGR 23/ % per year in Volume +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, (1) Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Note: (1) 213: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others 1

11 CELLULAR PHONES FORECASTS Cellular phones demand (M Units) CAGR : +6% 4 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA Cellular Phones market Drivers Emergent market Pris. 1% Renewal ratio increase Lam. 16% Cyl. 83% LIB cell format (Volume) 213 Smartphone penetration increase LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 3% -> 75% 1% 8% 6% Polymer 4% Prismatic 2% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses LIB cells for cellular phones trends Laminates ratio increase Increase of Thickness Increase of >14 mah capacity 11

12 PORTABLE PCS FORECASTS Portable PCs demand (M Units) CAGR: +4% Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy Emerging Mature Portable PCs market trends Mature market stable or decreasing Growth driven by Emerging market Ultrabook is increasing (2 (1) to 6% in 213 (2) ) ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 21 to 33% in 212 (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Pris. 1% Lam. 16% Cyl. 83% LIB cell format (Volume) 213 LIB cells demand Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28% 1% 8% 6% Laminate 4% Prismatic 2% Cylindrical % LIB cells for portable PCs trends Thinner cells Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 21 to 28% in 225 > 28 mah for Premium/corporate 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 12

13 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 13

14 HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION EV & HEV MARKET EV 25 kwh HEV.6-2 kwh batteries P HEV 1 kwh batteries MICRO HEV* MILD HEV MEDIUM HEV FULL HEV CITROEN C2, C3 BMW 3Series Fiat 5 Hyundai i1 Hyudai i3 Kia Smart for2 Toyota Yaris Toyota Auris VW Passat.. GM Saturn Vue GM AURA GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT MERCEDES S4 Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast TOYOTA PRIUS TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE NISSAN ALTIMA Fuel saving Vs. Cost 1% EV 8% 6% P-HEV 4% 2% HEV % $ 5 $ 1 $ 15 $ 14

15 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales Million HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 >1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, , 1,8 TOYOTA OTHERS % 25% 1,6 1,4 1,2 2% 15% JAPAN 1,,8,6,4,2, 1% 5% % USA EUROPE Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 15

16 HEV sold HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 BY CAR SUPPLIER Total HEV Vehicles +1,8M in 213 HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, HYUNDAI 4% GM FORD VW 1% 4% HONDA 12% TOYOTA 6 TOYOTA 78% 4 2 HONDA Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi TOYOTA HONDA Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 16

17 HEV sold HEV sold HEV WORLDWIDE IN 213 BY CAR SUPPLIER TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI TOYOTA OTHERS: FORD, GM, HYUNDAI HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 17

18 HEV penetration (% of total car sales) Million HEV FORECASTS HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in M in 22 7M in % 8 3% 7 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD Micro hybrid not included USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS 18

19 LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE VALUE CHAIN Comments The largest share of the value (4%) comes from cell components Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch- Samsung, Enerdel- Delphi ) Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material inhouse and make the pack integration for OEM On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate 19

20 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh in 215 Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin (Electrodes) AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem - Compact Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI) Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC Average Investments: 25 $ / kwh M$ A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk 1,5 GWh production capacity 2

21 Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) CONSEQUENCES: In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. 21

22 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues 22

23 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY 23

24 BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV 8,25-18,1 5-5,5-3 8, HV batt. Pack for EV 8,15-15,1 HV batt. CELL for EV , - 2,5 1,5-3, , Overall HV battery LV cell battery pack Packaging material Cooling Syst Batt. Magt Syst Batt. Packaging Manuf. DC/DC converter Charger Generator Inverter Inverter Rectifier HV Cables & Connectors Power Elec Pack Manufacturing BMS 4 Thermal Mgmt + packaging 2 Cell manu Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf HEV P-HEV EV AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION Cell 24

25 LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS NISSAN LEAF BOLLORE BLUE CAR GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION 25

26 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) (EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) 4 LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials 15 1 Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte 2 1 Separator Electrolyte 5 Anode (1) Cathode (1) Anode (1) Active materials only * 215* 22* * For Production > 1 packs/year Cathode 26

27 Million cars XEV 225 FORECASTS HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to LIB penetration in HEV % ,37,15 1,5 1,5, ,5, EV P-HEV HEV 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % NiMH LIB 27

28 M Wh M Wh TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +2% Total battery demand (MWh) CAGR : +12% NiMH for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for HEV LIB for EV NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV 28

29 M $ M $ RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-ev (cell level) Rechargeable battery market, M$, (cell level) NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV NiCd NiMH except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB Cyl LIB Pr LIB Pol LIB Auto 29

30 Million 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 22 Micro-hybrids car market Micro-hybrid car sold per year AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid batteries Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries (sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors) LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki) Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-hybrid market Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 1 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 2% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2 Battery Micro-hybrid Advanced lead acid Full HEV NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 3 3 Fuel saving 5% 2% Million Vehicle sold per year in

31 HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES 21 STANDARD CAR 88.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 1% MILD HEV.5% FULL HEV 1% EV P-HEV 215 Batteries Lead acid Standard Advanced Lead acid NiMH NiMH batteries Li-ion batteries 22 STANDARD CAR < 44% MICRO HYBRID > 5% FULL HEV 4% EV P-HEV 2% AFTER ULTRA BATTERY Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells 31

32 MWh TAKEAWAYS CAGR = +1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 15 B$ in 225 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 22, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 28 GWh B$ 575 GWh 54B$ 775 GWh 64 B$ 83 B$ Others Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 32 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 1 B$ (Pack level) 4, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%) NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%) LIB for xev (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%) Others (CAGR )

33 > US$ 1 B > US$ 7 B OTHER APPLICATIONS 1 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET 1 Battery market in 212 (M$) 18 Other Applications Battery market in 22 (M$) 18 Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by 8 8 UPS Telecom 6 6 Other Motive 4 4 Forklift Power Tools 2 2 E-Bikes Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 213 Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries Pack level

34 THANK YOU AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile: