GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets From a Historical Perspective

Transcription

1 GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets From a Historical Perspective Nebojsa a Nakicenovic International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) naki@iiasa.ac.at UNFCCC SBSTA Meeting Bonn, Germany May 2001

2 Impacts of Technological Change on Society Higher population levels Increased life expectancy Higher productivity Lower material intensities Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

3 Night Lights 1995/

4 Night Lights 2070 (IPCC SRES A1) 2070

5 Industrial CO 2 and total* GHGs per capita emissions versus population Tons C e / capita population Legend: Bio Gas Oil Coal *including deforestation CO 2 and anthropogenic CH 4 emissions (1kg CO 2 = 21kg CH 4 )

6 Contribution to CO 2 Concentrations Increase ~ FCCC Annex I countries: 71.9% Developing countries: 28.1% FCCC Annex I countries: 83.7% Developing countries: 16.3% FSU 19.2% North America 25.2% FSU 14.1% North America 33.2% Eastern Europe 5.5% Eastern Europe 6.4% Rest of L.America 4.2% Brazil 1.0% Rest of Africa 2.1% N. Africa & Mid.East 4.3% Rest of Asia 2.8% India 3.0% China 10.8% Japan 4.8% Australia & N. Zealand 1.3% Western Europe 15.0% Rest of L.America 3.2% Brazil 0.6% Rest of Africa 1.6% N. Africa & Mid.East 2.2% Rest of Asia 1.5% India 1.6% China 5.5% Australia & N. Zealand 1.1% Japan 3.7% Western Europe 26.1% Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

7 7 Historical ( ) and Current Per Capita GHG Emissions ton C equiv. per person-year and per capita 6 All CO 2 + CH 4 All CO 2 + CH 4 5 Industrial Industrial 4 3 Cumulative CO 2 CO World average 0 North OECD Eastern USSR Japan Oceania China India Other America Europe Europe Asia NAME * Other Brazil Africa * North Africa and Middle East Other Latin America

8 ENERGY RELATED CO 2 : OECD vs DCs 3 OECD DCs 2020: stabilize total emissions at 1990 levels 3 Gt C ENERGY-b.DRW % Carbon tax Cut backs Equal per Base Case flat rate 170$/t C OECD proportional capita reduction 85$/t C DCs to historical emissions contribution 0

9 THE GREENHOUSE "BAROMETER" "North" "South" % GDP (mexr.) 1990 GDP (PPP) 1990 Population Population 1990 Pop. under age 18, 1990 Industrial CO All CO Industrial CO All CO ) CO 2 + CH All GHGs ) (1) Uncertainty range of 0.8 to 2.6 Gt C biota emissions in the "South" (2) Approximation %

10 Global Net CO 2 Emissions From Energy in IIASA WEC Scenarios GtC 1.0 FSU Kyoto Commitments Annex I A2 A1 A3 B C1, C2 GtC 3 Annex I 2 Non-Annex I Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

11 TS Figure 2

12 TS Figure 3

13 Annex-I and Non-Annex-I per capita income

14 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global carbon dioxide emissions (GtC) A A1FI A1B A1T A A Global carbon dioxide emissions (GtC) B B B B Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

15 Global Mean Temperature Change Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range and IS92a INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

16 Energy Systems Costs of Alternative Baselines and Stabilization Scenarios Cumulative Discounted System Costs ( ), [trillion US$] ppmv CO 2 stabilization 450ppmv 450ppmv 450ppmv 550ppmv 650ppmv 550ppmv 550ppmv 550ppmv A1T A1B 750ppmv 750ppmv Cumulative CO 2 Emissions [GtC] A1G Baselines A1C Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

17 Primary Energy Substitution Coal Fraction (%) Wood Oil 20 Gas Nuclear

18 Brazil Ethanol Learning Curve 200 (Producer) price $(1996)/bbl Producer price Cumulative subsidy 1billion $ 50 Oil price Data: Goldenberg, % cost reduction for each doubling of cum. production Cumulative production 10 6 bbl Regression 0.6 billion $ 0.3 billion $? Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

19 The Innovation Chain Research and development Demonstration projects Early deployment (cost buy-down) Widespread dissemination

20 Uncertainty and Technological Learning % Learning index (cost reduction) ~5% 20% % ~5% 25% 25% 20% 50% 90% Number of doublings Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

21 Background Global (one region) MESSAGE model 10 technological clusters - hydrogen economy and new renewables Full-scale model with more than 100 technologies Levelized costs, supply curves for all resources, full uncertainty Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

22 Why It Is Hard to Do? Highly non-linear function non-convex, non-smooth Complex stochastic problem Huge parameter space example combinations ~ 400 years for high-end workstation Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

23 Implementation Cray T3E-900 at National Energy Research Scientific Computer Center, US 640-processor machine with a peak CPU performance of 900 MFlops per processor Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

24 Global CO 2 Emissions in % 5.0% 4.5% Full set of 520 technology dynamics 4.0% Relative Frequency 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Ranges, GtC Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

25 Global CO 2 Emissions in % 11% 10% 9% Near-optimal set of 53 technology dynamics Relative Frequency 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Ranges, GtC Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

26 Conclusions Technology policies and life styles Distributive vs. reductive criteria Comprehensiveness or GHG species Flexible mechanisms for stabilization Historical energy-related CO 2 to 1860 Historical vs. current contributions GWPs, raditative forcing or emissions Nakicenovic IIASA 2001

27 Nakicenovic IIASA 2001