How carbon-proof is Kyoto?

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1 How carbon-proof is Kyoto? Carbon leakage and hot air Arjan Lejour and Ton Manders* 1 Abstract Carbon leakage reduces the effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as agreed upon by the industrial and transition countries. Leakage occurs within this group of countries and toward developing countries. We show that carbon leakage can occur in the Former Soviet Union because their agreedupon emission limits are rather slack. More importantly, carbon leaks toward developing countries for two reasons. First, energy-intensive industries relocate to these countries because energy is cheaper there. Second, production processes become more energy intensive in the developing countries because of lower energy prices. The leakage rate is about 20%. 43 Introduction By signing the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, the industrialised countries (the so-called Annex I countries) committed themselves to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. The ultimate goal is to stabilise global emissions and to prevent undesirable climate change. 2 This protocol is an important first step in that direction. However, the contribution of the protocol to the stabilisation of global emissions can only be assessed if we also take into account the emissions of Non-Annex I countries, for two reasons. First, as Annex I emissions are expected to become a smaller part of global emissions, the relative impact of Annex I reductions on global emissions will be less dominant. Second, the impact depends on induced changes in emissions in Non-Annex I. If Non-Annex I emissions increase as a result of mitigation policies in Annex I, these policies are less effective in stabilising global emissions. We will focus on this induced, so-called carbon leakage effect. To assess the order of magnitude of this leakage and to unravel the different causes, we use WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy, developed at CPB (Timmer, 1998; CPB, 1999). Emission leakage can occur in countries both outside Annex I, and within Annex I. This may be the case if emission targets in Annex I exceed their expected emissions. Then Annex I countries can increase emissions as a result of policies in other Annex I countries without violating the Kyoto protocol. This note * For more information, contact Arjan Lejour (tel: ; or Ton Manders (tel: ;

2 44 will also address this possibility, often labelled as hot air. We suspect that it exists only in the Former Soviet Union. Baseline and policies The problem of carbon leakage depends on the tightness of the Kyoto protocol and the substitution possibilities between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. In a high growth scenario it will be more difficult to accomplish the required emission reductions than in a slower growing world. Leakage increases the more Non-Annex I countries are integrated into the global economy. Countries that already have a substantial market share in foreign markets and that are open to imports can easily take over a considerable part of energy-intensive production from Annex I. Moreover, the degree of integration of energy markets in the baseline is important. If trade in fossil fuels is difficult and energy markets are more or less regional markets, then the energy prices in Non-Annex I will hardly be affected. One should therefore carefully choose the relevant scenario in the absence of emission policies. Our baseline scenario is the A1 scenario constructed for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the International Panel on Climate Change (RIVM, 1999). This scenario describes a future world of high economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of more efficient technology. The global economy expands at an average annual rate of about 3% to Energy and mineral resources are abundant in this scenario because of rapid technological progress, which both reduces the resources needed to produce a given level of output and increases the economically recoverable reserves. Final energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) decreases at an average annual rate of 1.3%. The leakage rate will depend not only on the baseline, but also on the instruments or policies that are used to reach the targets that Non-Annex I countries set themselves. In general, one can say that the more efficient the instruments are, the lower the leakage rate will be. Efficient instruments will lead to less reallocation of energyintensive production to Non-Annex I. In this note we con- sider only one benchmark policy: unilateral taxes. Our policy simulation works as follows: With reference to the baseline, each country introduces a carbon tax so that its emissions do not exceed the assigned amounts. There is no permit trading. Other flexible instruments allowed for in the Kyoto protocol policies are considered in Bollen et al. (1999). Emission reductions and carbon prices Table 1 shows the resulting emission reductions and carbon prices in 2020 in the policy simulation 3 Western Europe has to reduce its emissions 38% compared to the baseline in Western Europe needs a unilateral carbon tax of 121$ per ton carbon ($/tc) to realise this emission reduction. 4 Table 1 shows that this tax leads to large increases in the consumer prices of energy, especially of coal, because the carbon content of coal per US$ is relatively large. Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (EE+FSU) only have to reduce about 5% of their baseline emissions. Reductions in the Rest of the OECD are 25% of their baseline. This means that their carbon tax is lower than in Western Europe. Another reason for the relatively low carbon tax is the relatively low energy prices in the Rest of the OECD, especially because of low energy prices in the United States. The carbon tax of 50 $/tc thus leads to relatively large increases in energy prices in the Rest of the OECD. Emissions in Non-Annex I increase by 3%; this is equivalent to 20% of the Annex I reductions. The leakage rate is thus 20%. The decreased world energy demand leads to a decrease in (real) consumer prices for energy in Non- Annex 1. Hot air and the leakage rate Figure 1 shows the time pattern of the emissions in EE+FSU. The bold line indicates the emissions without mitigation policies. Only in 2018 do these emissions cross the target (the horizontal dashed line). That means that the baseline contains hot air until The solid line shows the emission pattern with carbon taxes. In the first period this line lies substantially above the baseline emissions as a result Table 1 Emissions, carbon taxes and energy prices in the unilateral case in 2020 Western Europe Rest OECD Eastern Europe Non-Annex I + FSU CO 2 emissions a (%) Carbon tax ($/tc) real consumer prices of a (%) coal oil natural gas a cumulated % change in the policy simulation compared to the baseline

3 Figure 1 Emissions in the transition countries between 2010 and 2020 in baseline and policy simulations Figure 2 Leakage rates between 2001 and 2020 according to two definitions B PCR EPORT emmissions 0,9 4 price leakage rate % , emissions with taxes (Y1) emissions in baseline (Y1) emissions target (Y1) carbon tax in EE + FSU (Y2) leakage Non-Annex I leakage including EE+FSU of leakage within Annex I. Because of mitigation policies in other Non-Annex I regions, EE+FSU increase their emissions. As a result, they will reach their target earlier, already in From then on also EE+FSU have to introduce a unilateral tax to prevent their emissions from exceeding the target. The tax levels are indicated by stars in the figure. Thus, part of the hot air that existed in the baseline disappeared in the unilateral variant. Although the tax rate is positive, emissions still lie above the baseline level between 2016 and The existence of hot air complicates the analysis of leakage to Non-Annex I. The leakage rate is often defined as the induced increase of emissions in Non-Annex I as a share of the reductions in Annex I. The solid curve in Figure 2 shows the leakage rate defined in this way. However, in case of hot air and leakage within Annex I, this definition is not appropriate. The increase of emissions in EE+FSU as a result of leakage within Annex I is to be included in the denominator, lowering total Annex I reductions, and is not part of the numerator describing leakage. The dashed curve in Figure 2 is based on an alternative definition. In that definition EE+FSU are part of Non-Annex I for those years in which their emissions are below their target. In other words, the alternative definition describes leakage of emissions from countries that apply mitigation policies towards countries that are not restricted in their emissions. The gradual increase in the leakage rate is the result of the gradual increase in the share of Non-Annex I in the world economy. The larger leakage rate in the alternative definition has a similar explanation. In the alternative definition, the group of non-restricted countries is larger than Non-Annex I, and therefore that group is responsible for more leakage. After 2018, both definitions lead to the same leakage rate because there is no longer any hot air left in the FSU. Channels for leakage There are at least two reasons for leakage. 5 First, as a result of reduced energy demand in Annex I countries, the producer prices of energy in all regions will decline. Cheaper energy in countries that do not adopt mitigation policies will stimulate energy demand. Second, energy taxes in Annex I countries may provoke reallocation of energy-intensive production to countries that do not impose energy taxes. Table 2 shows that a substantial part of the production of coal, oil, natural gas and energy-intensive goods is shifted towards the Non-Annex I regions in response to environmental taxation. The production of energy-intensive goods shifts because their inputs become more expensive in the Annex I countries. The energy-producing sectors in Annex I are hurt more than the producers in the Non-Annex I, because they sell a much larger part of their production to regions that introduce energy taxes. The large shift in the production of coal reflects the high taxes in that sector compared to gas and oil. Table 2 sector Changes in global production shares of Annex I by sector change production share a energy-intensive goods 1.2 coal 8.9 oil 4.3 natural gas 3.9 all goods 0.3 a relative changes (%) between policy variant and baseline in 2020.

4 Table 3 Change in carbon content by sector and region a sector Western Europe Rest OECD Eastern Europe Non-Annex I + FSU agriculture energy-intensive goods consumer goods capital goods services a cumulated % difference between policy variant and baseline in Table 3 shows that, due to the carbon tax, production within sectors becomes cleaner in Annex I. The entries in Table 3 are the changes in carbon content. The (implicit) carbon content in each sector is computed by taking into account all intermediate deliveries and all imports. Although the carbon content in all producing sectors decreases in Annex I, it turns out that the carbon content of final demand hardly changes because of import. Annex I s reductions in emissions are only partly a reduction in implicit final use of emissions. Moreover, most of the increase in emissions in Non-Annex I is ultimately used for final demand in Annex I countries. The increase in Non-Annex I implicit exports of emissions is the result of three factors. First, in every sector own-production becomes more energy intensive, because of lower energy prices. That makes also their exports more carbon intensive. Second, the gains in energy efficiency in Annex I lower the carbon content of Annex I s exports and Non-Annex I s imports. Third, Non-Annex I takes over some of Annex I s production in energy- intensive sectors. Insofar as production is ultimately again exported to Annex I countries, the mitigation in Annex I is merely a shift of production across borders. This analysis of implicit carbon use shows the importance of trade in relation to leakage. Trade is a necessary condition for leakage. However, it is also the channel through which leakage is partly exported back to the countries that set themselves targets. The ultimate cause for leakage are deficiencies in the Kyoto protocol, i.e. the fact that the protocol is not a global agreement. Trade funnels carbon leakage and in this way undermines the effectiveness of environmental policy. We emphasise these negative effects by analysing the effects of trade barriers in energy markets and energy-intensive goods markets. Compared to our policy variant, a simulation is run in which the trade barriers in these markets are not eliminated. We compute the isolated effect of trade liberalisation on leakage. 6 Table 4 shows that the breakdown of trade barriers on the energy market substantially increases the leakage rate. This is not surprising. The elimination of tariffs on the oil, gas and coal markets induces Non-Annex I regions to use more energy. Globalization thus weakens the effectiveness of environmental legislation by the Annex I regions. Sensitivity analysis The leakage rate is influenced by assumptions about production possibilities and behavioural relations. In model terms this refers to price elasticities. 7 The price elasticity of energy demand in Non-Annex I is an important determinant of leakage. The higher these price elasticities are, the greater the leakage will be, because Non-Annex I will increase energy demand more easy as a result of lower prices. A high price elasticity of energy demand in Annex I, on the other hand, will make the leakage rate smaller. The magnitude of this price elasticity of energy demand depends on the substitution possibilities between all different inputs for production. Both substitution between different energy inputs and substitution between energy and non-energy inputs matters. We assessed the sensitivity of these substitution possibilities by halving the substitution parameter in the production function between energy and other intermediaries and the substitution parameter between the different energy inputs: all fossil inputs, electricity, biofuels and non-thermal electricity. Finally, the price elasticities of trade flows of all goods and services are important. The higher these elasticities are, the larger the leakage. High price elasticities in energy markets imply integrated global energy markets. That means that suppliers of energy in Non-Annex I countries are confronted with a decline in demand for their output as a result of mitigation policies in Annex I; suppliers of energy in Annex I, moreover, can easily shift their sales to Non-Annex I. High price elasticities in other markets Table 4 The effects of trade liberalisation on leakage trade liberalisation increase in leakage ratio manufacturing 0.61 energy markets 2.55

5 Table 5 Decomposition of leakage rate (%) B PCR EPORT Reference Low trade Low substitution elasticities elasticities Total leakage rate over sectors within sectors facilitate shifts in trade patterns of energy-intensive products. In WorldScan, the long-run price elasticities in the demand for internationally traded goods vary between 5 and 17 (in absolute values). In the case of carbon taxes, energy-intensive sectors will suffer more. High trade elasticities will induce a strong demand shift from expensive domestic sectors towards inexpensive foreign sectors. To assess the role of these trade elasticities, we halved the long-run price elasticities. Table 5 presents the leakage rates under alternative specifications and gives a decomposition according to the two important channels of leakage. To this end we compute the carbon content of fossil energy in all sectors in the baseline. Next, we compute the effect of the change in sector structure on emissions using the direct carbon contents in the baseline. 8 This indicates the substitution effect over sectors. The complement denotes the effect of changes within sectors. According to the entries in column 2 of Table 5, lower trade elasticities lead to lower leakage rates, although the effects are modest. Lowering substitution parameters in the production function increases carbon leakage slightly. However, substitution over sectors and substitution within sectors changes more significantly. Lower trade elasticities reduce the effect of shifts over sectors from 9% to 3%. There is a small effect on shifts within sectors. Energy prices in Non-Annex I are a bit lower. The lower energy prices will induce substitution within sectors towards fossil fuels and an upward pressure on leakage. For this reason, leakage rises from 11% to 13%. Lowering the substitution parameters leads to a higher carbon price. The higher carbon prices induce a larger shift in energy-intensive production from Annex I to Non-Annex I, i.e. a larger shift over sectors (from 9% to 16%). Compared to the reference case, in Non-Annex I there is less substitution towards cheaper energy and the carbon content is lower. Due to substitution within sectors, leakage decreases from 11% to 6%. Conclusions Carbon leakage is a threat to the effectiveness of the Kyoto protocol, which obliges the Annex I countries to reduce substantially their greenhouse gas emissions. To a small extent, carbon leaks occur within the Annex I countries because the agreed-upon reductions in the Former Soviet Union are not tight. More importantly, carbon leaks toward developing countries. In our scenario, the implementation of the Kyoto protocol leads to more emissions in the developing regions about 20% of the total emission reduction. We have identified two main reasons for carbon leakage. First, because the introduction of energy taxes lowers the energy producer prices, energy becomes cheaper in the developing countries. As a result, firms will use more energy in production. Second, energy-intensive industries in Annex I become less competitive. These industries will reallocate to the Non-Annex I. We explore the significance of the channels for carbon leakage. In a globalizing world, the spillovers between regional markets for energy and energy-intensive products become larger. The leakage rate will increase by about 3%. This undermines the effectiveness of the Kyoto protocol. Moreover, we have split changes in emissions into changes that result from shifts over sectors and changes that results from shifts in production technologies. Crucial for these processes are trade elasticities and production substitution elasticities. Higher trade elasticities tend to lead to higher leakage as a result of substantial shifts over sectors, but to slightly smaller leakages through changes in input structures of production. Lower substitution elasticities in the production process have a similar effect. Although the leakage induced by the input structures is reduced, it increases significantly because of shifts over sectors. 47

6 48 References Bollen, J., T. Manders and H. Timmer (1999), Kyoto and carbon leakage, CPB, The Hague. Bollen, J, A. Gielen, and H. Timmer (1999), Clubs, ceilings and CDM, Macroeconomics of compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, The Energy Journal. CPB (1999), WorldScan: the Core Version, The Hague. Gielen, A., and C. Koopmans (1998), The economic consequences of Kyoto, CPB Report 98/1. Lejour, A. (1999), The Interplay between Globalization and Environmental Objectives, CPB, The Hague. Timmer, H. (1998), WorldScan: a world model for long-term scenario analysis, CPB Report 98/3. RIVM (1999, forthcoming), IMAGE-implementation of the B1 scenario a greenhouse-gas emissions scenario for the IPCC. Notes 1 Parts of this note were presented at the IPCC Working Group III Expert Meeting, May in The Hague, the Netherlands and at the second annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Assens, Denmark. Useful comments were made by Johannes Bollen and Hans Timmer. 2 Gielen and Koopmans (1998) discuss the content of the Kyoto protocol. 3 The Kyoto protocol assigns targets for We assume that the target levels of emissions are maintained after this period. 4 $/tc stands for 1995-US dollars per ton carbon. 5 There is at least a third reason: income effects in non-complying countries may change their domestic energy demand. The importance of this reason is, however, very limited, and therefore not discussed here. 6 Trade liberalisation is one of the elements in the A1 baseline. 7 The price elasticity of supply is a key determinant. Inelastic supply, i.e. small price elasticities, will increase leakage. Suppliers of fossil fuels are then prepared to lower their prices drastically in order to maintain output. A sensitivity analysis regarding supply elasticities remains for future work. 8 This measure of carbon content takes into account only the direct emissions used in the production process, not the implicit emission related to the intermediary use of other products, such as above.

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