Finding Ways to Postpone Climate Tipping Points Using Updated Metrics

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1 Finding Ways to Postpone Climate Tipping Points Using Updated Metrics Tobias Schultz, Manager of Environmental Sustainability Services Sustainable Silicon Valley Meet-Up July 7, 2015 SCS Global Services 1

2 To Start To postpone climate tipping points, we must reduce global warming within 20 years. But current mitigation has only hastened climate change. Why? Climate metrics have not been updated since Updated climate metrics are needed to postpone tipping points. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 2

3 What is a Climate Tipping Point? A critical threshold when the climate changes from one stable condition to another. A tipping point may be irreversible. IPCC, 2013: Annex III: Glossary. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 3

4 Irreversible Tipping Points Anticipated by the International & Scientific Communities +4 C Today: +0.8 C +1.5 C +2 C Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 4

5 +1.5 C the Warmest World in 10,000 Years Crop yields 5% decline likely Our Climate Commitment Emissions Reductions Cannot Avoid +1.5 C. Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 5

6 +2 C Dangerous Climate Interference (UNFCCC) NASA : Superdroughts in Western USA IPCC: +2 feet of sea level rise Small islands & coastal areas permanently evacuated World Bank: 20% decline in water availability Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 6

7 +4 C Potentially Catastrophic Declines in food production in all regions 50% decline in water availability Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 7

8 +4 C Potentially Catastrophic Declines in food production in all regions World Bank 2013: The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing 50% decline global in water availability prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a +2 C world, but in a +4 C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 8

9 +4 C The Definition of Irreversible 25 million years ago the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted. The world stayed this warm for 10 million years. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 9

10 Irreversible Tipping Points Are Coming, But Climate Change is Here Now Study finds heat waves are 4x as common now as Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 10

11 This Is Not Just a Problem We need mitigation to be effective now, not 100 years in the future. for Our Grandchildren Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 11

12 What is being done? Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 12

13 New York Times Today s Mitigation Mechanisms Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 13

14 New York Times Today s Mitigation Mechanisms These mechanisms direct $350B per year to climate mitigation. IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 14

15 What Do We Get for $350B? Business-as-usual: +1.5 C by 2035, +2 C by 2050 Today s Accomplishments? NO CHANGE 2 USA IS +1 C WARMER NO CHANGE C Today Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 15

16 Well, $350 billion clearly isn t enough! International Energy Agency says $1 trillion per year will do it. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 16

17 What Would Current Mechanisms Accomplish with $1 trillion? NO CHANGE C 1.5 Effect by 2035: A WARMER WORLD Effect by 2050: NO CHANGE. 0.8 Why? Planned mitigation efforts also reduce Today coolant emissions Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 17

18 What Would Current Mechanisms Accomplish with $1 trillion? NO CHANGE C 1.5 Effect by 2035: A WARMER WORLD Effect by 2050: NO CHANGE. 0.8 Why? Why? Planned Of planned mitigation mitigation efforts also efforts, reduce Today Over coolant 90% focus emissions. only CO Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 18

19 What are Coolants? Reflecting sulfate aerosols (from SO Scientific 2 ). Certification SCS Global Systems Services 19

20 Since Three 1750, Global coolants Cooling have slowed Zones global warming by half. The world would be +1.5 C today if not for coolants. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 20

21 Coolants Are Still Slowing Global Warming Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 21

22 Coolants Are Still Slowing Global Warming National Academy of Sciences (2013): The Chinese economic expansion led to a huge increase in sulfur emissions, which has had a cooling effect. All that sulfur pollution in the air from China s massive coal-burning was largely responsible for the leveling of [global warming] between Dr. Robert Kaufman, Boston University. Lead author of the 2013 study. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 22

23 US The reduced Root coolants Cause by of 60% +1 C because in of the human US health and acidification impacts. US EPA plans to fight global warming by removing coal plants, reducing CO 2 emissions. What else will happen? Further reductions in coolants. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 23

24 The Unintended Consequence of Reducing CO 2 from Coal Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 24

25 The Unintended Consequence of Reducing CO 2 from Coal UNEP-WMO 2011 SO 2 is co-emitted with CO 2 in some of the highestemitting activities, including coal burning [ ] in power plants. Hence, CO 2 [mitigation] alone may temporarily enhance near-term warming as sulfates are reduced. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 25

26 800 Why Do CO 2 -Focused Mechanisms Have No Effect by 2050? ppmv CO Warming of 1.8 W/m 2 (greenhouse effect) CO 2 legacy of 400ppm. 2100: 7 W/m Reference Data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Chapter 5. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 26

27 800 Why Do CO 2 -Focused Mechanisms Have No Effect by 2050? ppmv CO Warming of 1.8 W/m 2 (greenhouse effect) CO 2 legacy of 400ppm. 2100: 7 W/m 2 Even with $1 trillion per year We are still stuck at 400ppm Reference Best-Case Reference Scenario Data from IEA World Energy Outlook Scientific Certification 2009 SCS Global Systems Chapter Services Data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Chapter 5.

28 ppmv CO Why Do CO 2 -Focused Mechanisms Have No Effect by 2050? UNEP-WMO 2011 Warming of 1.8 W/m 2 Reducing (greenhouse CO effect) 2 emissions does little to mitigate warming over the next years. 2100: 7 W/m 2 With the Even CO 2 with [mitigation] $1 trillion alone, per year We are still stuck at 400ppm CO 2 legacy of 400ppm. warming exceeds 2 C before Reference Best-Case Reference Scenario Data from IEA World Energy Outlook Scientific Certification 2009 SCS Global Systems Chapter Services Data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Chapter 5.

29 What Can We Do to Postpone Tipping Points? Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 29

30 How to Postpone Tipping Points UNEP-WMO 2011 Black carbon mitigation: $20 billion per year to A postpone small number +1.5 C of 10 emission years reduction measures [ ] could immediately begin to protect the climate If the measures were implemented by 2030, They could halve the potential increase in global temperature compared to [business-as-usual] in Today UNEP/WMO 2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. 2 Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 30

31 How to Postpone Tipping Points Black carbon mitigation: $20 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years Today UNEP/WMO 2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 31

32 Going After Black Carbon Hot Spots East Asia Central Africa South Asia S. America Indonesia 80% is emitted in five hot spots. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 32

33 And Health Impacts As Well UNEP on Indian Hot Spot: Black Carbon Causes Local Climate Impacts Not Related To Global Warming: +14 W/m 2 local warming 20% Decrease in Rainfall 6% reduction in sunlight Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 33

34 A large part of this PM is black carbon. And Health Impacts As Well UNEP on Indian Hot Spot: Black Carbon Causes Local Climate Impacts Not Related To Global Warming: +14 W/m 2 local warming 20% Decrease in Rainfall 6% reduction in sunlight This air pollution kills 7 million per year in developing countries. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 34

35 Getting Rid of Black Carbon Hot Spots Would Have Global and Regional Climate Benefits Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 35

36 And Save 2.5 Million Lives per Year in Developing Countries Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 36

37 How to Postpone Tipping Points Black carbon mitigation: $20 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years 2 Methane mitigation: $4 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years Today UNEP/WMO 2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 37

38 Save $$$$$ Postpone Tipping Points By recovering vented methane during oil & gas production Potential lifetime $$$$ savings: Almost $50 billion by 2030 Effect on climate change: Postpone +1.5 C by almost 5 years Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 38

39 Understanding CO 2 Mitigation Potential Black carbon mitigation: $20 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years 2 Methane mitigation: $4 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years 1.5 AND CO 2 mitigation: Additional >$1 trillion per year to postpone +2.0 C 0.8 Today UNEP/WMO 2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 39

40 Understanding CO 2 Mitigation Potential Black carbon mitigation: $20 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years Methane mitigation: $4 billion per year to postpone +1.5 C 10 years Current mechanisms Ignore coolants, Leave out black carbon, and Do not prioritize methane reduction AND CO 2 mitigation: Additional >$1 trillion per year to postpone +2.0 C As a result, 0.8 they focus almost exclusively on CO 2 and cannot postpone +1.5 C or +2 C. Today UNEP/WMO 2011: Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 40

41 How Did We Get Here? Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 41

42 The Mitigation Control Point All mechanisms disperse funding using the GWP-100 climate metric. Last GWP-100 update: 1997 Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 42

43 GWP-100 Leaves Out 60% Of Climate Pollution GHGs in Current Footprints Radiative Forcing Carbon dioxide 1.8 W/m W/m 2 (40%) 1.8 W/m 2 (30%) Methane Short-Lived 0.5 W/m 2 Radiative Nitrous oxide Climate Forcers 0.2 W/m 2 Forcing Other GHGs Black carbon 0.3 W/m W/m 2 Total Brown carbon 2.8 W/m W/m 2 Cooling Climate Tropospheric Ozone Forcers 0.4 W/m 2 Total Cooling 1.8 W/m aerosols 2 (sulfate, nitrate, and organics) -2.1 W/m 2 (30%) Radiative Forcing -2.1 W/m 2 Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 43

44 GWP-100 underestimates short-term impacts of methane by 80% IPCC 1997: x21 over 100 years IPCC 2013: x36 Over 100 years NASA Scientists: x105 Over 20 years CO 2 Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 44

45 GWP-100 Assumes We Have 100 Years to Solve the Problem Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 45

46 Shortcomings mean policies based on GWP-100 cannot avoid tipping points IPCC 2013: GWP-100 is not well suited for policies with a maximum temperature target In 2010, what did 195 countries agree on? Emissions need to be reduced so that global temperature increases are limited to below 2 C. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 46

47 What to do with $350 billion? To postpone tipping points, updated climate metrics are needed to reapportion available funds. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 47

48 The Critical Step in Fixing Our Mitigation System: Updating Climate Metrics Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 48

49 Updated Climate Metrics are Being Standardized US Standard American National Standards Institute Process Status: Final draft International Standards ISO TC 207 Official US negotiating position: revise international standards to include updated metrics. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 49

50 Standards Development Team Technical Review By: Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute Robert Howarth, Cornell University V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institute Mark Jacobson, Stanford University Proponents on Standards Committee: Climate Scientists Government Carbon registries Industry Members Environmental groups Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 50

51 Climate Metrics: Keeping Up to Date Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 51

52 Metrics Require Distinct Accounting for Hot Spots in Black Carbon Equivalents This prioritizes mitigation of emissions impacting hot spots. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 52

53 How do I use the new climate metrics? Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 53

54 Updating Your Carbon Footprint No new data collection required. The only difference: using updated GWP factors. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 54

55 Uses of the Updated Climate Metrics Footprint for Manufacturing Facility A (Delhi, India) 52 tons CO 2 e 45 tons CO 2 e 22 tons CO 2 e 13 tons CO 2 e SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 120 tons CO 2 e 115 tons CO 2 e Calculate facility climate impacts. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 55

56 Uses of the Updated Climate Metrics Footprint for Manufacturing Facility A (Delhi, India) 52 tons CO 2 e 45 tons CO 2 e 22 tons CO 2 e 13 tons CO 2 e SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 120 tons CO 2 e 115 tons CO 2 e Calculate Analyze facility your supply climate chain. impacts. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 56

57 Uses of the Updated Climate Metrics Footprint for Manufacturing Facility A (Delhi, India) Facility A Facility B 52 tons CO 2 e Facility D 22 tons CO 2 e Facility C SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 120 tons CO 2 e 45 tons CO 2 e 13 tons CO 2 e 115 tons CO 2 e Calculate Analyze facility your supply climate chain. impacts. Identify facilities in black carbon hot spots. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 57

58 Uses of the Updated Climate Metrics Footprint for Manufacturing Facility A (Delhi, India) Facility A Facility B 52 tons CO 2 e Facility D 22 tons CO 2 e Facility C SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACTS 120 tons CO 2 e 45 tons CO 2 e 13 tons CO 2 e 115 tons CO 2 e Supplier A Supplier B Supplier C Supplier D Calculate Analyze Compare facility your suppliers. supply climate chain. impacts. Identify facilities in black carbon hot spots. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 58

59 Example: Comparing Suppliers Using Updated Climate Metrics Case Study: Comparing refrigerator made in China vs. USA. Same model, different supplier Used in same place (Georgia) Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 59

60 Comparing Refrigerator Carbon Footprints 1997 Climate metrics Updated Climate metrics Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 60

61 Why The Difference? Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 61

62 China: The World s Black Carbon Leader Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 62

63 China: The World s China Black emits Carbon 3x as Leader much black carbon as USA. Though many scientists thinks it is actually 6x. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 63

64 How To reduce impacts from 1 million refrigerators? Option A: 20% efficiency increase Option B: Buy from suppliers in the USA Reductions 1 million tons CO 2 e 5 million tons CO 2 e Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 64

65 How To reduce impacts Updated Metrics Highlight New Opportunities from 1 million for refrigerators? Mitigation. Option A: 20% efficiency increase Option B: Buy from suppliers in the USA Reductions 1 million tons CO 2 e 5 million tons CO 2 e Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 65

66 In Conclusion Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 66

67 To Conclude To postpone climate tipping points, we must reduce global warming within 20 years. But current mitigation has only hastened climate change. Why? Climate metrics have not been updated since Updated climate metrics are needed to postpone tipping points. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 67

68 Updated Climate Metrics Show There Is Hope Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 68

69 $3 billion in solar. There Is Hope $2 billion in renewables. How does this compare to the cost of reforming the world s energy system? Climate Impact by 2050: NONE. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 69

70 $3 billion in solar. There Is Hope Cost to reform the world s energy system: at least $1 trillion per year. $2 billion in renewables. How does this compare to the cost of reforming the world s energy system? Climate Impact by 2050: NONE. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 70

71 $3 billion in solar. There Is Hope $2 billion in renewables. Cost to mitigate enough black carbon and methane To postpone +1.5 C And save 2.5M lives per year: $25 billion per year Tech industry charity in 2014 : $5 billion Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 71

72 There Is Hope With our current mitigation system, $3 billion in solar. ALMOST NO funding goes to these projects. $2 billion in renewables. Cost to mitigate enough black carbon and methane To postpone +1.5 C And save 2.5M lives per year: $25 billion per year Tech industry charity in 2014 : Updating climate metrics is the first vital step in $5 billion fixing our broken system. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 72

73 How To Take Action Understand your mitigation potential by upgrading carbon footprints. Fund projects through carbon registry pilots. Join the movement to reform climate metrics standards. Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 73

74 Questions & Discussion Tobias Schultz Scientific Certification SCS Global Systems Services 74

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