Fun things you may not have noticed in WEO2012 C. Besson Riyadh, 22nd January 2013

Transcription

1 Fun things you may not have noticed in WEO2012 C. Besson Riyadh, 22nd January 2013

2 A United States oil (& gas) transformation Historical and projected US oil production in NPS 12 Light tight oil Oil production by type (mb/d) Other unconventional oil NGLs Conventional The surge in unconventional oil (& gas) production has implications well beyond the United States

3 Light Tight Oil: a short revolution? Historical and projected US oil production in NPS 12 Light tight oil Oil production by type (mb/d) Other unconventional oil NGLs Conventional With currently known resources and technologies, LTO production in the US will peak in the 2020 s

4 Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq oil exports mb/d 9 8 North Centre mb/d 9 8 Other Asia 7 South Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia

5 Gas moves from sideshow to centre stage bcm Iraq s natural gas balance Production Demand Reductions in gas flaring & development of new gas fields will be needed to meet Iraq s growing domestic needs & its export ambitions

6 Catching up with power demand Iraq electricity generation TWh Shortfall in generation Hydro & other renewables Natural gas Oil Oil helps to eliminate the power deficit in But without a longer-term shift to gas-fired power, Iraq would forego more than $500 billion in oil export revenue

7 Iraqi Gas is Doubly Free! bcm Iraq s natural gas balance Production Demand Economics of US shale gas as a function of NGLs content NGLs pay for most gas developments in Iraq. This is a trend observed in other countries (US, Russia ). It implies a new sort of coupling between the oil and gas markets. It calls for more detailed understanding of long term NGLs markets.

8 Road Freight is responsible for the largest increase in oil demand World Transport Oil demand by sub-sector Road Freight has strong potential for efficiency gains and fuel substitution. Projections are more robust than for PLDVs.

9 Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export by destination mb/d China India Japan & Korea Europe United States By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade

10 Changing Trade Patterns Net oil imports in New Policies Scenario And By 2035, actual almost crude 90% and products of Middle trade Eastern patterns oil exports will become go to Asia; ever North more America s complex with new refining emergence centers as a emerging, net exporter leading accelerates to strong the competition eastward shift for products in trade exports

11 Renewables to account for half of new worldwide power capacity in NPS Billion dollars (2011) Cumulative investment in renewables capacity % Non-OECD 5% 4% 3% 2% OECD Change in generation share, (right axis) 400 1% 0 Wind Hydro* Solar PV Biomass CSP Geothermal Marine 0% The projected increase in global renewables requires cumulative investment of $6.0 trillion (compared to 10 for upstream oil) and faces large uncertainties

12 Energy is becoming thirstier in the face of growing water constraints Global water use Water for energy 100% 80% 60% Other Nuclear Biofuels Fossil fuels 40% Power Coal 20% Energy The energy sector s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects

13 Global water use for energy production bcm Withdrawals bcm Consumption Fuels: Biofuels Fossil fuels Power: Biomass Nuclear Oil Gas Coal If oil is only a small part of Withdrawals, it is not so small for Consumption

14 Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario 100% 80% 60% Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential 40% 20% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

15 Changes in global real GDP The Big Unknown Unknown in the Scenarios & value-added by sector The Efficient World Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Energy-intensive industries Change in world GDP, 2035 (0.4%) Construction Services Change in value-added: Other manufacturing Transport services 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Efficiency This is obtained gains boost by coupling GDP by 0.4% the IEA in 2035, energy relative sector to model the New to the Policies OECD general Scenario economic model. Something not done for CPS, NPS ans 450S

16 Current & new policies increase global mean temperature ppm of CO 2 -eq Greenhouse-gas concentration pathways (left) and probability distribution of equilibrium temperature increase (right) C C -1 New Policies Scenario Current Policies Scenario 450 Policies Scenario Current policies result in a 50% likelihood of a long-term temperature increase of 5.3 C, the New Policies Scenario sees a median temperature increase of 3.6 C