TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A PART B GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNEXES INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040

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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK LOW OIL PRICE SCENARIO NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK OUTLOOK FOR UNCONVENTIONAL GAS COAL MARKET OUTLOOK POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK 10 PART B INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK ENERGY IN INDIA TODAY OUTLOOK FOR INDIA S ENERGY CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK FOR INDIA S ENERGY SUPPLY IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ANNEXES ANNEXES

2 1 2 3 Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 21 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 31 Introduction and scope 31 Scope of the report 32 Methodological approach 32 Modelling framework 32 Defining the scenarios 34 Main non-policy assumptions 36 The economy 36 Demographic trends 40 Carbon-dioxide prices 41 Technology 43 supply costs and prices 46 Oil prices 46 Natural gas prices 51 Coal prices 52 Global energy trends to Introduction 54 Overview of energy trends by scenario 55 trends in the New Policies Scenario 61 demand 61 supply 78 Inter-regional energy trade 88 sector investment 92 -related CO 2 emissions 94 Topics in focus 96 Fossil-fuel subsidies 96 Access to modern energy 101 Oil market outlook 111 Oil price fall and the long-term outlook 112 The story so far 114 Demand 118 Regional trends 118 Sectoral trends 120 Trends by product Production 130 Resources and reserves 130 Production prospects 132 Refining and trade 143 Investment and costs 147 Low Oil Price Scenario 153 What could keep oil prices down for longer? 154 Key assumptions 155 Outcomes in the Low Oil Price Scenario 157 Oil demand 159 Oil production 164 Focus: tight oil a new balancing element in the oil market? 168 Refining and trade 177 Implications for other fuels and technologies 178 Implications for economies, energy security and sustainability 184 Natural gas market outlook 193 The search for a new natural gas balance 194 Demand 196 Regional trends 196 Sectoral trends 201 Production 203 Resources and reserves 203 Production prospects 204 Methane emissions 212 Trade and investment 215 Focus: LNG costs and the competitive position of natural gas 222 Outlook for unconventional gas 229 A multi-speed revolution? 230 Unconventional gas production prospects to Overview by country 233 Inside the US shale storm 237 Weathering the decline in natural gas prices 239 Long-term outlook for US unconventional gas 243 Unconventional gas in China: a long wait for take-off? 245 Policy environment and production outlook 247 Barriers to unconventional gas supply 252 Implications for China and global gas markets 254 Unconventional gas regulation: revisiting the Golden Rules 257 United States 258

3 7 8 9 Canada 261 Australia 263 Key public concerns and trends in unconventional gas regulation 266 Coal market outlook 269 Overview 270 Demand 276 Regional trends 276 Sectoral trends 278 Supply 280 Reserves and resources 280 Production 281 Trade 283 Coal prices and costs 285 Regional insights 290 China 290 United States 292 South Africa 294 Southeast Asia 295 Australia 297 Power sector outlook 299 Context 300 Electricity demand 304 Electricity supply 310 Overview 310 Power generation capacity 311 Power generation 315 Investment 320 Power generation costs 322 Electricity prices 326 Electricity-related carbon-dioxide emissions 329 Focus on coal-fired power generation 330 Coal-fired power generation capacity 330 Power generation and coal plant efficiencies 332 CO 2 emissions due to coal-fired power generation 335 Impact of local water scarcity on coal-fired power 337 Renewable energy outlook 343 Recent developments 344 Policy developments 344 Market and industry developments 345 Outlook by scenario Outlook by sector in the New Policies Scenario 349 Global trends 349 Power sector 350 Industry and buildings 361 Transport 362 Avoided CO 2 emissions 365 Economics of renewables 368 Investment 368 Competitiveness 372 Subsidies 380 efficiency outlook 387 Introduction 388 Current status of energy efficiency 388 Recent trends 388 efficiency regulation 392 Outlook for energy efficiency 396 Remaining energy efficiency potential 398 Trends by sector 400 Avoided CO 2 emissions 408 Investment 408 Focus: material efficiency in energy-intensive industries 409 Introduction 409 Method 412 Impact on energy-intensive sectors 414 Policy recommendations and costs 421 Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK in India today 427 Introducing the special focus on India 428 Key energy trends in India 428 Demand 428 Electricity 433 Access to modern energy 436 production and trade 438 Factors affecting India s energy development 445 Economy and demographics 445 Policy and institutional framework 448 prices and affordability 451 Social and environmental aspects 454 Investment 456

4 Projecting future developments 458 Economic and population growth 459 prices 460 Policies 461 An Indian Vision Case 559 Investing in India s energy future 568 Investment in energy efficiency 568 Investment in energy supply Outlook for India s energy consumption 463 India: a rising force in global energy demand 464 Overview and outlook by fuel 465 End-use sectors 470 Buildings 471 Industry 477 Transport 483 Agriculture 488 Power sector 489 Electricity demand 490 Electricity supply 494 Transmission and distribution 503 Implications for air quality 504 ANNEXES Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 581 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 661 Annex C. Definitions 673 Annex D. References Outlook for India s energy supply 507 supply in India 508 Coal 508 Coal quality, resources and reserves 508 Costs 510 Production prospects 511 Transport and handling infrastructure 517 Coal imports 519 Oil and natural gas 521 Resources and reserves 521 Oil supply 523 Natural gas 527 Renewable energy 532 Solar power 534 Wind power 539 Hydropower 540 Bioenergy 541 Nuclear power Implications of India s energy development 547 What route to centre stage? 548 Implications of the New Policies Scenario 549 -related CO 2 emissions and climate change 555

5 List of figures Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Change in value-added GDP contribution by sector, related CO 2 emissions and economic growth, Evolution of energy technology costs per unit in the New Policies Scenario, Non-OPEC supply cost curves for 2015 and 2040 in the New Policies Scenario Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario Coal price relative to gas price by region in the New Policies Scenario 52 Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to World primary energy demand and CO 2 emissions by scenario related CO 2 emission levels and GDP by selected region in the Bridge Scenario Cumulative world energy sector investment by sector and scenario, Primary energy demand and GDP by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, Primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Change in demand by fuel and selected region in the New Policies Scenario Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Primary energy demand and energy intensity of GDP in the New Policies Scenario Change in world energy consumption in industry in the New Policies Scenario Primary energy demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, World energy demand by fuel and sector in the New Policies Scenario, Average fuel economy of PLDVs and vehicle kilometres travelled by region in the New Policies Scenario, Proven reserves and production in the New Policies Scenario Oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario World electricity generation by type in the New Policies Scenario Average efficiency of coal-fired power plants by region in the New Policies Scenario Growth in renewables electricity generation by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, Net trade by selected region and fuel in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative investment in energy supply by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, Change in energy-related CO 2 indicators by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Contributing factors to the change in the value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies Government revenues and expenditures, and fossil-fuel subsidies in the Middle East oil-exporting countries Number and duration of monthly electrical outages by selected countries Household average electricity consumption of selected equipment in Ghana with and without energy efficiency standards, World energy access investment by type and source, Share of the population with access to electricity and clean cooking facilities by region in the New Policies Scenario 108 Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 World oil demand and price by scenario Trends in oil intensity and GDP per capita in selected countries and regions Index of gasoline pump prices in national currencies relative to the price of Brent crude oil in US dollars Global upstream oil and gas investment Fuel economy of new passenger car sales in the United States and China Payback periods of LNG-powered long-haul trucks in the United States and European Union in the New Policies Scenario Heat generation cost of fossil-fuel based industrial boilers in China in the New Policies Scenario Revenue passenger-kilometres in aviation by region in the New Policies Scenario Oil demand in international and domestic aviation by region in the New Policies Scenario, Top-ten global product markets in the New Policies Scenario Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production by five-year periods in the New Policies Scenario Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario, Crude oil balance in the East of Suez region in the New Policies Scenario Global upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index Global fossil-fuel demand in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 150 Figures for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario 4.1 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario Change in global primary energy demand by fuel in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Change in world oil demand by source in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Change in global oil demand by sector in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 161

6 4.5 Change in global transport sector oil demand in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Change in non-opec and OPEC oil production by five-year periods in the Low Oil Price Scenario Change in world oil production by type in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Change in cumulative oil and gas upstream investment and cumulative production by key region in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Change in oil supply by selected region in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Average field decline curves for US tight oil and world conventional oil Average lead times between final investment decision and first production for different oil resource types Indicative supply response of US tight oil for the period , based on costs in the New Policies Scenario, for a range of 2020 oil prices Distribution of estimated ultimate recovery per well in the Bakken tight oil play Estimated ultimate recovery per well and indicators of well complexity in the Bakken tight oil play Estimated ultimate recovery per well and indicators of well complexity in the Eagle Ford tight oil play Evolution of number of wells drilled per month per active drilling rig in selected US tight oil plays Estimated ultimate recovery per well and density of wells by county in the Bakken tight oil play, end Estimated ultimate recovery per well and density of wells by county in the Eagle Ford tight oil play, end Correlation between oil and natural gas price movements in different regional markets Natural gas prices and the share of non-hydro renewables in the US power mix Change in cumulative oil production and average oil revenue per capita in OPEC countries in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Nigerian gross federal revenues versus Bonny Light oil price Change in household income in selected regions in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Share of the Middle East in inter-regional crude trade by scenario Change in cumulative global energy-related CO 2 emissions in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Figures for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook 5.1 World natural gas demand by scenario Top-five gas-consuming regions in the New Policies Scenario Change in natural gas demand by key sectors and regions in the New Policies Scenario, Global natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas production in Russia by key producing basins in the New Policies Scenario Change in natural gas production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by region in the New Policies Scenario Distribution of methane emissions from two studies of natural gas production sites Global LNG liquefaction capacity additions LNG exports by region in the New Policies Scenario Indicative breakdown of current LNG cost components Overview of floating LNG projects under consideration, Figures for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas 6.1 Global natural gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario Unconventional gas production by key country in the New Policies Scenario Change in unconventional gas production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Main unconventional gas resources in North America Shale gas production by play in the United States Drilling and completion time versus average length of horizontal lateral per well in the Marcellus shale play Average estimated ultimate recovery per unit length of lateral section in the Marcellus shale play Estimated ultimate recovery per unit length of lateral section and drilling intensity in selected areas of the Marcellus shale play Dry gas and NGLs production for the main US shale plays Unconventional gas production by type in the United States in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas balance in China in the New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable unconventional gas resources in China and selected countries Main unconventional gas resources in China Unconventional gas production in China by type in the New Policies Scenario Shale gas targets versus production to 2025 in China in the New Policies Scenario Indicative range of unconventional gas production outcomes by type in China 255 Figures for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook 7.1 World coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario 270

7 7.2 Change in coal demand by key region and decade in the New Policies Scenario Average OECD steam coal import prices and global coal trade by scenario Marginal FOB cash costs and market volume for global seaborne steam coal trade by scenario, Evolution of coal demand in key regions in the New Policies Scenario Coal demand by key sector and region in the New Policies Scenario Major net importers of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario Weighted average FOB cash costs and indicative cost range for steam coal by key exporter Effect of oil price changes on FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade, Coal demand in China by coal type and key sector in the New Policies Scenario United States coal production by basin in the New Policies Scenario South Africa coal balance in the New Policies Scenario Southeast Asia coal balance in the New Policies Scenario Major net exporters of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 297 Figures for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook 8.1 Electricity demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Share of electricity in total final consumption by region in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand shares by sector and selected region in the New Policies Scenario Global installed capacity by source in the New Policies Scenario Global power generation capacity retirements and additions in the New Policies Scenario, Electricity generation by source and region in the New Policies Scenario, Power generation by fuel and demand by sector in selected regions Global cumulative investment in the power sector by type in the New Policies Scenario, Total power generation costs in the New Policies Scenario, Total power generation costs in the New Policies Scenario, Average electricity prices in the industry sector by region and component in the New Policies Scenario Residential electricity prices and GDP per capita by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Global CO 2 emissions by sector and electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario Global coal capacity by technology, 2014 and Electricity generation from existing and new coal-fired power plants by selected regions Efficiencies of existing, new and average fleet of coal-fired power plants CO 2 emissions from power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 emissions by fuel and coal technology in selected regions Average age of coal subcritical plants operating in 2040 and retirements over Installed coal-fired power generation capacity in China by cooling technology in the New Policies Scenario Installed coal-fired generation capacity by cooling technology and sub-catchment area in China in Impact of water stress on average Chinese location-specific generation cost for coal-fired power plants by cost component in the New Policies Scenario, Figures for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook 9.1 Share of modern renewables by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013 and Global renewables-based electricity generation by technology in the New Policies Scenario Renewables-based electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Hydropower installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Bioenergy installed power generation capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Wind power installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Solar PV panel manufacturing capacity and production, and capacity additions by region in the New Policies Scenario Solar PV installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Solar PV capacity additions in European Union and selected countries, Global heat demand provided by bioenergy and solar in the industry and buildings sectors in the New Policies Scenario Biofuels consumption in road transport by fuel type and selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2013 and Global CO 2 emissions avoided by use of renewable energy technologies in the New Policies Scenario Amount of aluminium, steel and concrete needed for global capacity additions by technology and scenario, Average annual investment by technology and selected region in the New Policies Scenario, and Milestones on the road to competitiveness for renewables Curtailment of wind power output and corresponding impact on levelised costs as a function of wind penetration Marginal economic value for wind power, solar PV and CSP in California at increasing shares of annual electricity demand Competitive renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario Competitive non-hydro renewables generation worldwide in the New Policies Scenario, 2014 and Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 versus Estimated subsidy rates for solar PV and wind in the New Policies Scenario 384

8 9.22 Subsidies by technology in the New Policies Scenario Subsidies by region in the New Policies Scenario 385 Figures for Chapter 10: efficiency outlook 10.1 demand change and avoided energy demand from efficiency gains in selected sectors and regions Extent of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption by sector and region Factors contributing to global primary energy savings by region in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario, Cost of conserved energy of the untapped global energy efficiency potential in the New Policies Scenario, Electricity demand growth and savings in buildings by equipment and region in the New Policies Scenario, Change in oil demand in road transport in the New Policies Scenario, Payback period associated with untapped energy efficiency potential in trucks in the New Policies Scenario, Reduction in energy intensity in aluminium production by contributing factor in the New Policies Scenario, World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario Average annual investment in energy efficiency by region in the New Policies Scenario Components of resource efficiency demand and CO 2 emissions from the production of selected energy-intensive materials in the New Policies Scenario and Material Efficiency Scenario Change in energy demand in the Materials Efficiency Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, Global steel, aluminium, paper and plastic production by input material and scenario 418 Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK Figures for Chapter 11: in India today 11.1 Per-capita energy consumption in India and selected regions Annual residential electricity consumption per capita by state in India (for those with access), Primary energy demand and GDP in India Primary energy demand in India by fuel demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in India Vehicle ownership in India and selected regions, Total electricity generation in India by fuel Fossil-fuel production and demand per capita by selected countries, Fossil-fuel balance in India GDP per capita and total GDP for selected countries, 1990 and Composition of GDP and employment structure in India Main institutions in India with influence on energy policy Per-capita energy expenditure by location and income in India Diesel and gasoline prices and demand, Average cost of electricity and average revenue in India, Average annual particulate matter concentration in selected cities in India Carbon intensity of GDP and energy-related CO 2 emissions per capita in selected regions, supply investment by type, Power generation capacity by type of ownership in India Size of GDP and GDP growth by selected economies, GDP composition by sector in India, 2013 and Figures for Chapter 12: Outlook for India s energy consumption 12.1 GDP and primary energy demand growth in India in the New Policies Scenario India domestic energy balance, 2013 and Change in coal demand by selected countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario, Change in oil demand by selected countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario, Crude oil imports as a share of the trade deficit Primary energy mix in India and by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in India in the New Policies Scenario Changes in energy consumption in the buildings sector in India in the New Policies Scenario, Primary fuel/technology used by households for cooking in the New Policies Scenario Annual electricity consumption per rural and urban electrified household in India, 2013 and Average energy expenditure by fuel and household disposable income, Estimated current and projected industrial energy consumption by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario intensity of urea production in India Transport fuel demand by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario Road fuel demand for personal transport by type in India in the New Policies Scenario, 2014 and Transport fuel demand by type in the New Policies Scenario demand for irrigation by source in India in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 491

9 12.19 Population without access to electricity and electrification rate in India in the New Policies Scenario Age profile of thermal capacity in India, end Coal-fired power plant capacity by technology and average efficiency in India in the New Policies Scenario Power generation by source in India in the New Policies Scenario Components of the delivered cost of an average unit of power in India in the New Policies Scenario Share of total power generation costs versus share of generation in India in the New Policies Scenario Network losses and reduction of losses in India and in an international context in the New Policies Scenario Emissions of NO x, SO x and PM 2.5 by sector, 2010 and Figures for Chapter 13: Outlook for India s energy supply 13.1 Fossil-fuel trade balance in India in the New Policies Scenario Hard coal reserves by state in India Productivity evolution in the coal mining sector in India Coal production by type of mine and share of surface mines in India in the New Policies Scenario Evolution of steam coal production by coal grade in India Indicative domestic mining cost curve, Main coal-mining areas and coal infrastructure in India Coal imports by origin in India in the New Policies Scenario Indicative cost of coal delivered to northwest coastal India in the New Policies Scenario, Oil production by source in India in the New Policies Scenario Crude oil imports by origin in India in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas production in India in the New Policies Scenario Gas resources developed in India in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas imports in India in the New Policies Scenario Levelised costs of gas-fired versus coal-fired power in India, Renewables-based power generation capacity in India in the New Policies Scenario Levelised cost of electricity from wind, solar PV and the average cost of power output in India in the New Policies Scenario Share of renewable energy capacity and generation in India, Nuclear capacity additions by time period in India in the New Policies Scenario 545 Figures for Chapter 14: Implications of India s energy development 14.1 Share of India in world energy consumption growth by fuel in the New Policies Scenario, Estimated number of direct jobs in India s energy supply sector in the New Policies Scenario related CO 2 emissions by selected country and region in the New Policies Scenario Installed coal-fired power generation capacity in India by cooling technology in the New Policies Scenario Installed coal-fired generation capacity by cooling technology and sub-catchment area in selected regions of India, Value added in manufacturing in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario Optimal split by grid type to achieve universal access in selected regions in the Indian Vision Case by Change in fossil-fuel demand in the end-use sectors in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, Change in electricity demand in the end-use sectors in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, Average annual investment in energy efficiency by sector in the New Policies Scenario Average annual investment in energy supply in India in the New Policies Scenario and the Indian Vision Case Breakdown of cumulative energy supply investment by sector in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario, Average annual investment in the power sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 577 List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Greenhouse-gas emissions reduction goals in submitted INDCs for top-ten CO 2 emitters Real GDP growth assumptions by region Population assumptions by region CO 2 price assumptions in selected countries and regions by scenario Recent developments and key conditions for faster deployment of low-carbon energy technologies Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 47 Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Recent fossil-fuel subsidy reforms in selected countries 99 Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 119

10 3.3 World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region, end World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario Refining indicators by region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the New Policies Scenario, Tables for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario 4.1 World primary energy demand by fuel in the Low Oil Price Scenario Oil demand by region in the Low Oil Price Scenario Oil production and liquids supply by source in the Low Oil Price Scenario Global oil and refinery indicators in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Fossil-fuel import prices in the Low Oil Price Scenario 180 Tables for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook 5.1 Natural gas demand by major region and scenario Natural gas demand by region in New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario Natural gas net trade by region in the New Policies Scenario Major variables affecting the cost of new LNG liquefaction facilities 224 Tables for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas 6.1 Global unconventional gas production in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, Coal capacity by technology, 2014 and Tables for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook 9.1 Targets driving renewables deployment in selected regions Top-ten solar PV manufacturers in World renewables consumption by scenario Cumulative renewables gross capacity additions by region and type in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative investments in renewables-based power plants by region and type in the New Policies Scenario Relevant comparisons for evaluating competitiveness of renewable energy technologies by scale and role played Main support mechanisms for renewable energy technologies in the power sector by selected region 381 Tables for Chapter 10: efficiency outlook 10.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2014 and Share of global final energy consumption by end-use and selected regions, Final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in buildings in the New Policies Scenario Final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in transport in the New Policies Scenario Final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in industry in the New Policies Scenario Overview of material efficiency strategies in selected sectors in the Material Efficiency Scenario characteristics of energy-intensive industries, Tables for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook 7.1 Coal demand, production and trade by scenario Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Remaining recoverable coal resources, end Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 284 Tables for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook 8.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario World electricity generation by source and scenario Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK Tables for Chapter 11: in India today 11.1 Number and share of people without access to electricity by state in India, Selected policy assumptions for India in the New Policies Scenario 462 Tables for Chapter 12: Outlook for India s energy consumption 12.1 Primary energy demand by fuel in India in the New Policies Scenario Final energy consumption by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario Electricity demand by sector and generation in the New Policies Scenario Power generation capacity by type in India in the New Policies Scenario 499

11 Tables for Chapter 13: Outlook for India s energy supply 13.1 production in India in the New Policies Scenario Oil resources by category in India, end Natural gas resources by category in India, end Oil product demand in India in the New Policies Scenario Oil balance in India in the New Policies Scenario 526 Tables for Chapter 14: Implications of India s energy development 14.1 Breakdown of average household energy use in rural and urban areas in the New Policies Scenario Selected energy indicators for India in the New Policies Scenario Investment in energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario and the Indian Vision Case, Investment in energy supply in the New Policies Scenario and the Indian Vision Case, List of boxes Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope 1.1 Are economic growth and carbon emissions decoupling? Run-up to an oil price fall 49 Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to China s energy data in the balance Power plant efficiency is critical With great power comes great opportunity efficiency and electricity access the case of Ghana 104 Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook 3.1 Is there a downside for diesel? Oil and gas investment in a climate-constrained world 150 Boxes for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario 4.1 Are markets heading back to the 1980s? Do lower oil prices ease access to energy? Why invest when prices are low? How quickly can oil supply respond to prices? Sub-Saharan Africa in a low oil price world 185 Boxes for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook 5.1 Iran: the wild card in international gas markets? Floating LNG: niche play or mainstream application? 227 Boxes for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas 6.1 Defining unconventional gas How do resource estimates affect our Outlook for unconventional gas? Seven Golden Rules for unconventional gas production Can innovation alleviate concerns about water contamination and use? Observed seismic activity in Canada s Montney play What makes coalbed methane extraction different? 264 Boxes for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook 7.1 China, India and United States: taking stock Stranded capital or miners? Adapting to market conditions Impact of oil prices on coal supply 288 Boxes for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook 8.1 Decoupling emissions and economic growth in the Nordic region Modelling the impact of water stress on coal-fired power plants 338 Boxes for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook 9.1 Has the solar PV market in the European Union peaked? Aluminium, steel and concrete needs and associated CO 2 emissions for the deployment of renewables Changing value of variable renewables 377 Boxes for Chapter 10: efficiency outlook 10.1 What is the impact of low oil prices on energy efficiency? Resource efficiency, energy efficiency and material efficiency what is the difference? 411 Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK Boxes for Chapter 11: in India today 11.1 Power fluctuations, from state to state Defining access to electricity India s energy sector data 449 Boxes for Chapter 12: Outlook for India s energy consumption 12.1 The coupling and decoupling of GDP and energy use in India India in a Low Oil Price Scenario What India builds is crucial to the future of energy use Transition towards cleaner cooking facilities in India 474

12 India s policies on energy efficiency in industry Smart cities moving mobility back in time? A fleet to last a lifetime Boxes for Chapter 13: Outlook for India s energy supply A 1.5 billion tonne question for the coal outlook Looking abroad: Indian overseas oil and gas investment Finding a natural gas price that is right for India Gujarat s shining example How much land can India spare for biofuels? e or o o ks b / g le ab E-mai Recent key developments in energy and climate policy Four pillars to build success at COP21 Can light oil tip the market balance? What would it take for China s coal demand to fall? n ai S e c u re S u s t Secure Sustainable l: bo oks iea g. or India s solar target: how high can you go? Can India bypass coal for solar- and wind-based electrification? What mix of technologies can achieve universal electricity access in India? Technology Perspectives series Statistics series OECD/IEA, 2015 Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK y Agency erg n E Internationa l Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS w List of spotlights PD 0% discou s at 2 nt iea io n er s Employment gradually turning green in India s energy sector Material efficiency in energy-intensive industries in India Five steps to improve India s air quality Lighting efficiency on a grand scale The risk of a shortfall in power sector investment Fv Onl in w w. Boxes for Chapter 14: Implications of India s energy development kshop o o b To ge t her Policies Beyond IEA Countries series World Outlook series Policies of IEA Countries series Oil Coal MediumTerm Market Renewable Reports series Gas Efficiency Market Report