RE-POWERING MARKETS Market design and regulation during the transition to low-carbon power systems

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1 RE-POWERING MARKETS Market design and regulation during the transition to low-carbon power systems EC-IEA Roundtatble on electricity market design and regulation Brussels, 18 February 2016

2 Power markets must evolve to facilitate a low-carbon transition Competitive electricity markets are being challenged by the need to decarbonise A power market transformation is already underway Demand is stagnating in OECD Europe Renewables met 62% of growth in capacity in OECD Europe since 2000 New technologies progressing (smart grids, demand response, storage) Electricity security is becoming more critical The massive investments required call for an improved market framework: Low-carbon investments Integration of wind & solar power Capacity markets Network investments & regulation

3 Competitive electricity markets are being challenged by the need to decarbonise Capacity additions in OECD Europe by technology, Start of industry restructuring MW Massive investments needed during the transition will take place in competitive markets. Their design is key for decarbonisation while ensuring electricity security.

4 Current wholesale prices and long-term risks call for continuing support Year-ahead forward market prices (Real price 2015), EUR/MWh France The Netherlands Germany Long-term arrangements are still needed to make up the difference in low-carbon generation costs, and keep financing costs low for capital-intensive investments.

5 Integrating high shares of wind and solar 80 New operational requirements with high shares of renewables (data for Germany using scaled wind data) 70 Contribution to peak demand 60 Load Load level (GW) Potential over-generation Forecast errors Larger ramps Net load with 20% of wind 2energy in the generation mix Hours Source: Adapted from IEA (2014) THE POWER OF TRANSFORMATION Short-term markets can unlock flexibility for efficient and secure system operations, and reap benefits of demand response, storage, flexible generation and networks.

6 When and where to operate and invest? Markets prices with a high geographical and temporal resolution can provide incentives for efficient and secure coordination of more complex power resources.

7 Capacity mechanisms: are they needed? Neighbouring capacity mechanisms in North-West Europe Getting scarcity prices right during capacity shortage is a pre-requisite, still capacity mechanisms are increasingly used to create a safety net during the transition.

8 Low-carbon power and networks require the largest investment Power-sector cumulative investment by type, 450 Scenario, OECD Europe, Billion dollars (2014) Oil 2 Gas 116 Coal Other 98 Bioenergy 126 Hydro 143 Solar 357 Wind 852 Distribution 674 Transmission 184 Fossil Fuels Nuclear Renewables T&D Source: WEO Decarbonisation involves both capital-intensive investments and a modernised regulatory framework for transmission and distribution networks.

9 Modernizing retail tariffs Cost components and tariff structure of selected retail electricity prices (average for Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam) 100% 90% VAT 21% Fixed 7% USD/kWh 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Levies and taxes 19% Network and metering 26% Variable 93% 30% 20% 10% Energy 35% 0% Costs components Tariff structure Prices have to better reflect the underlying costs level and structure in order to induce efficient investment in solar PV and batteries on the consumer side.

10 Conclusion: Re-powering markets Decarbonisation of the power sector is forcing a rethinking of electricity market design Incremental changes re-powering - can facilitate the transition: Short-term markets with detailed and transparent information on when and where to operate and invest Consistent framework for low carbon support, CO2 pricing and markets Electricity security requires reliability standards and pricing scarcity right, with capacity mechanisms providing an additional safety net A comprehensive market framework balances rules set by regulators and competitive markets Many recommendations are relevant outside Europe, including IEA partner countries

11 Thank you

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