Global Energy Dynamics: Outlook for the Future. Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA 18 June 2014

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1 Global Energy Dynamics: Outlook for the Future Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA 18 June 2014

2 The world energy scene today Some long held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles: importers are becoming exporters and exporters are among the major sources of growing demand New supply options re orientate the energy trade map But there still remains a major disconnect between climate change goals & actions being taken to meet them Energy prices add to the pressure on policymakers Sustained period of high oil prices without parallel in market history Large, persistent regional price differences for gas & electricity The geopolitics of energy are being further complicated as new tensions add to other unresolved concerns

3 The energy mix is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand Gas Coal Renewables Oil Nuclear Mtoe 25 years ago the share of fossil fuels in the global mix was 82%; it is the same today & the strong rise of renewables in the future only reduces this to around 75% in 2035

4 Unconventional oil and gas has made a major contribution to global production US shale gas and shale oil production increases: bcm mb/d Gas Oil 0.0 Growth in US shale gas since 2005 equals the current output of Qatar + Kuwait + UAE + Iraq; while shale US shale oil output oil output is equal is now to equal that of to Iraqi oil production

5 Is shale oil the only reason why US oil imports are shrinking rapidly? Reductions in US oil imports in 2035 relative to today Demand side policies 35% Increased oil supply 57% 8% Natural gas use in transport US oil imports are set to plummet due to increasing oil supplies & recently adopted policies to improve efficiency of cars and trucks

6 Two chapters to the oil production story Contributions to global oil production growth Middle East Brazil United States Rest of the world mb/d The United States (light tight oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up until the mid 2020s, but the Middle East is critical to the longer term oil outlook

7 Oil use grows, but in a narrowing set of markets Oil demand by sector region mb/d Other Gasoline Diesel OECD Other Middle East India China Transport Petrochemicals Other 2035 sectors China becomes the largest consumer of oil by 2030, as OECD oil use drops; demand is concentrated in transport, where diesel use surges by 5.5 mb/d, & petrochemicals

8 Turbulent times for the refining sector Refinery capacity and operation mb/d Other Middle East India New refinery capacity China Current spare & excess capacity Spare & excess capacity, 10 mb/d at risk of closure by 2035 Oil bypassing refineries Oil demand processed by refineries More oil bypassing the refining system and new capacity in growing non OECD markets piles pressure on existing refiners, especially in Europe

9 Regional natural gas prices: who has the energy to compete? Natural gas prices by region $/MBtu European Union Japan United States Regional differences in natural gas prices narrow from today s very high levels but remain large

10 Energy intensive industries need to count their costs Share of energy in total production costs for selected industries 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Petrochemicals Fertilisers Aluminium Cement Iron & steel Pulp & paper Glass Energy intensive sectors worldwide account for around one fifth of industrial value added, one quarter of industrial employment and 70% of industrial energy use.

11 LNG from the United States can alleviate strain on the gas markets, but is no silver bullet Indicative economics of LNG export from the US Gulf Coast $/MBtu $/MBtu Average import price Liquefaction, shipping & regasification United States price To Asia To Europe New LNG supplies accelerate movement towards a more interconnected global market, but high costs of transport between regions mean no single global gas price

12 US emissions on a downward trend Energy related CO 2 emissions in the United States Gt CO CO 2 emissions fell sharply since the shale gas revolution, but rebounded last year on the back of a partial gas coal switch and increased industrial activity

13 The slowdown in Chinese coal demand caught industry off guard Coal demand in China: real demand vs historical trend Mt Real consumption Historical trend Curbing in China 20 times the increase in US exports in China s move away from coal will have a much greater impact on global coal markets than the US shale gas revolution

14 Concluding remarks The shale revolution is having an unprecedented impact on the global energy landscape, economy and geopolitics Middle East oil will continue to be indispensible to world markets the right signals to invest must be sent New geography and composition of oil demand and supply confront the world s refiners with a complex set of challenges While US natural gas prices may rise, large disparities between regions will persist Europe s energy strategy needs to focus on competitiveness & energy security, in addition to climate concerns

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