The economic and energy scenarios for Latin America & the Caribbean from the perspective of the KPMG

Transcription

1 The economic and energy scenarios for Latin America & the Caribbean from the perspective of the KPMG Martiniano Lopes KPMG Partner Latin America Energy and Natural Resource Leader ARPEL Conference - Uruguay April 10th,

2 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Oil Proved Reserves in 2011 North America is the 3th largest proved reserves region. Canada is the 3th largest proved reserves in ww with 175.2bb USA has 30.9bb proved reserves 206bb (12,5%) 132bb (8.0%) 141bb (8.5%) 795bb (48,1%) 42bb (9,5%) Europe & Eurasia is the 4th. Russian has 88.2bb and Kazakhstan 30bb 337bb (20,4%) Latin America is the 2th largest proved reseves region. Venezuela is the largest ww proved reserves with 296.5bb which represents 17.9% of total share. Brazil is the 2sd largest proved reserves in Latin America with 15bb which keeps increasing with pre-salt exploration. Source BP Statiistic Review of World Energy June Latin America North America Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia Ásia Pacific Africa is the 5th. Libya has 47.1bb and Nigeria 37.2bb. Middle East is the largest proved reseves region, led by Saudi Arabia which is the 2sd lagest ww proved reseves with 265.4bb which represents 16.1% of total Share. Iran is the 4th largest ww reserves with 151.2bb, Iraq is the 5th with 143.1bb and Kuwait is the 6th with 101.5bb Asia Pacific is the 6th. China has 14.7bb. 1 2

3 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Oil Consumption in 2011 and growth 2010/2011 North America is the 2sd largest consumption region decreasing 1.5%. USA is the largest ww consumption with 18.8mbd decreasing 1.9%, Canada consumption is 2.3mbd with 0.4% growth 21,1mbd (23.0%) 8,3mbd (9.3%) Latin America North America 3,3mbd (3.9%) 18,9bdm (22,1%) 28.3mbd 8.1mbd (32.4%) (9.1%) Europe & Eurasia is 3th largest consumption region with 1.8% growth, led by Russian with 3mbd and 5.5% growth. France, Germany, Italy and UK decreased consumption impacted by finance crisis. Latin America is the 4th largest consumption region with 2.2% growth. Brazil consumed 2,7mbd with 2.3% growth and Mexico 2.0mbd with 1.3% growth Source BP Statiistic Review of World Energy June Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia Ásia Pacific Africa is 6th consumption region decreasing of 1.4%. Middle East is the 5th consumption region with 1.6% growth, led by Saudi Arabia with 2.9mbd and 3.7% growth. Iran with 1.8mbd but decreasing of 3.1% Asia Pacific is the largest consumption region with 2.7% growth. China is 2th largest ww consumption with 9.8mbd and alone accounting for 71% of global energy consumption. Japan is the 4th with 4.4mbd and India with 3.5mbd 2 3

4 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Areas of increasing demand are not always the areas of energy supply Regions of high level Demand Relatively high level of energy consumption Regions of Proved Reserves Relatively high levels of energy supply Relatively low levels of energy supply 4

5 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Global Oil Demand Inflection from OECD to Non- OECD 5

6 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Crude Oil Prices from 1861 to 2011 US dollars per barrel World events Oil prices for the year exceeded $100 for the first time ever (in money-of-the-day terms) and inflation-adjusted prices were the second-highest on record, behing only s crisis 2008 crisis Source BP Statiistic Review of World Energy June

7 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Unconventional competition at $100/bdl Break-Even Price for Incremental Oil & Gas Projects Oil Sands Shale play Tight gas LNG trains Source: Citigroup, Zeroing in on Long Term Oil Prices, 4 June

8 1. Global Oil&Gas Overview Some events have impacted the market although these events the global energy consumption grew 2.5% in 2011 Slow growth impacted by ww financial crisis started in 2008 Euro crisis impacted by ww Financial Crisis started in 2008 Local Government intervetions changes the market regulation and subsidized price, particularly in on Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil, have impacted their credibility with the local and foreign investors Latin America North America Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia Ásia Pacific Libya internal crisis (political and economic crisis) Arab Spring The earthquater and tsunami in Japan South and Nort Korea crisis Japan and China crisis China reducing its growth speed Source BP Statiistic Review of World Energy June

9 2. Latin America Oil&Gas Overview Latin America - Highlight Latin America is set to be the fastest-growing region in terms of oil production over the next decade. Large Brazil s offshore Pre- Salt reserves Large Venezuela s Orinoco heavy oil reserves Large shales gas discovered in Argentina and Mexico Potential reserve growth in Colombia and Peru BUT... Source: Business Monitor International Ltda Argentina Oil & Gas Report Q KPMG Consultoria Ltda., uma sociedade simples brasileira e firma-membro da rede KPMG de firmas-membro independentes e afiliadas à KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), uma entidade suíça. Todos os direitos reservados. Impresso no Brasil. 8 9

10 2. Latin America Oil&Gas Overview Latin America - Highlight Brazil maintains the top overall upstream risk/rewards position in Latin America but has promoted some regulatory changes; Colombia and Peru have demonstrated that they can outperform showed attractive business environments; Government involvement in the oil and gas industry is an enduring theme in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia; Ecuador, Mexico, Trinidad and Chile all suffer from oil-supply growth deteriorations a trend that is particularly worrying in Mexico, one of the region s main producers. Source: Business Monitor International Ltda Argentina Oil & Gas Report Q KPMG Consultoria Ltda., uma sociedade simples brasileira e firma-membro da rede KPMG de firmas-membro independentes e afiliadas à KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), uma entidade suíça. Todos os direitos reservados. Impresso no Brasil. 9 10

11 3. High Oil & Gas Impact Trends High impact trends for next years Regulation Wind Uncertainty Weak signals Solar Biofuel CO2 policies Critical uncertainties Need for action Nuclear Shales China demand OECD To Non-OECD Technology Impact 2012 KPMG Consultoria Ltda., uma sociedade simples brasileira e firma-membro da rede KPMG de firmas-membro independentes e afiliadas à KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), uma entidade suíça. Todos os direitos reservados. Impresso no Brasil. 11

12 4. SWOT Analysis for Oil & Gas in Latin America Strengths Local market consumption growing very fast Onshore and offshore experience particularly in ultra deepwater Established Center of Technology promoting Innovation Opportunities Huge proved reserves which keep growing New bids rounds Onshore and offshore remains underexplored For players with established operations (Oil & Gas players and services providers), expand through Brownfield and Greenfield projects Weaknesses High Operational Cost Unbalance between short and medium/long term vision (project and operation) Cash-flow and investment capacity impacted by subsidized price Lack of skilled staff Capacity to deliver the projects on time, on quality and on budget Threats Changing on regulation (lack of credibility) Strikes and Labor disputes Heavy-handed state intervention and re-nationalizations Risk of significant currency devaluation and inflation Complex Fiscal and Legal environment Infrastructure and Logistics 12

13 Thank you Contacts Martiniano Lopes Latin America Energy and Natural Resources Leader Partner +55 (11)

14 2012 KPMG Consultoria Ltda., uma sociedade simples brasileira e firma-membro da rede KPMG de firmas-membro independentes e afiliadas à KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), uma entidade suíça. Todos os direitos reservados. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation KPMG Consultoria Ltda., uma sociedade simples brasileira e firma-membro da rede KPMG de firmas-membro independentes e afiliadas à KPMG International Cooperative ( KPMG International ), uma entidade suíça. Todos os direitos reservados. Impresso no Brasil. 14