Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market. Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014

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1 Canada s Energy Sector in a Changing Global Market Kristi Varangu Director, International Energy Division March 10, 2014

2 2 Purpose Illustrate the profound changes that are taking place in global and North American energy markets Outline the Canada s response to this changing reality

3 3 A vast international reordering of energy supply and demand patterns is underway Growth in Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe) China: Largest growth in global energy use ---demand rising 60% by 2035, will surpass U.S. India: Demand more than doubles. Developing Asia: Demand for energy growing due to industrial development, urbanization and increased use of motorized vehicles. OECD: Energy demand in 2035 only 3% higher than in 2010, with shifts in energy mix towards gas and renewables; oil and coal demand will decline by 15%. Source: IEA

4 4 North America will soon be net exporter of natural gas (forecasts also project N. American oil self sufficiency by 2030) Natural Gas Production and Demand Forecasts (bcf/d) ,0 110,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 EIA Production EIA Demand IEA Production IEA Demand

5 5 Canadian oil and gas production projected to grow for decades Natural gas production shifting towards unconventional production Between 2000 and 2010 unconventional gas doubled Canada s marketable resources Ramp up of production by end of the decade, led by British Columbia According to the National Energy Board, oil production is projected to reach up to 6 million barrels per day (Mb/d) by 2035, from 3.3 Mb/d in 2012 By 2035, oil sands projected to account for approximately 85% of production Conventional resources are declining and are being replaced by unconventional sources, which are presenting new challenges Shale gas: Dramatically expanding gas resources has raised concerns around environment, health and safety Offshore: Increased concern over governments capacity to safeguard health and the environment Oil sands: Development is presenting challenges on greenhouse gas emissions, broader environmental concerns (air, water) and safe transportation (pipelines, rail, marine)

6 6 but market access and diversification key to realizing benefits of oil and gas resources 99% of oil exports and 100% of natural gas exports are sent to the US Transportation bottlenecks have resulted in Canadian oil and gas producers being unable to reach growing markets with resulting oversupply and depressed prices Focus on market access and diversification by promoting Canada as safe, reliable, secure and competitive supplier International Missions help promote Canadian energy across the Atlantic and the Pacific Looking to develop ties to potential new markets through MOUs, trade agreements, etc.

7 7 Adapting to this changing reality is a priority for the Government of Canada Enabling efforts to build new energy infrastructure to access new and expanded export and domestic markets Current oil pipeline proposals south, west and east would add up to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of new export capacity Three LNG export proposals for Canada s west coast have already been granted long-term export licenses from the National Energy Board Enabling responsible development of Canada s energy resources, by: Focussing environmental oversight on areas of highest risk Strengthening Canada s marine safety regime Increasing pipeline safety Enhancing aboriginal participation in resource development Investing in innovation to enhance economic and environmental performance System built on public-private cooperation, 7 th in OECD in gross R&D expenditures Up to $4.5 B investment in CCS initiatives, from $1.8 billion public investment $2.2 B invested through Sustainable Development Technology Canada, from $600 million investment by Government of Canada

8 8 with international cooperation remaining more important than ever Canada hosting 2 nd IEA Unconventional Gas Forum in Calgary, 26 March 2014 Objective of IEA Forum to enable informed decision making on operational best practices and regulatory action to secure the economic and security benefits of unconventional gas output. Calgary event will focus on best practices for minimizing water usage and sharing best practices concerning unconventional gas development Aim is to create a fact-based platform for stakeholders to: debate lessons learned from past experience, identify areas for further analysis, and offer perspectives on possible new technological, regulatory and community approaches to address risks Event includes Site visit to shale gas production operations, March 25 th Second workshop on Canadian shale gas experience and practice, March 27 th

9 9 In summary, Canada is 1. Building global energy relationships: expanding existing and pursuing new markets 2. Market oriented: committed to a market-based approach, with an open and competitive investment environment 3. Transparent and environmentally responsible: improving regulatory performance through more effective, efficient and transparent regulation 4. On the leading-edge of technology: investing in innovation and collaboration to enhance economic and environmental performance

10 10 DRAFT ANNEX

11 Canada s energy wealth fundamental to economic prosperity In 2012, energy represented approximately 9.1% of Canadian GDP in today s prices Oil and gas production leader Fifth largest producer of oil and third largest proved reserves Fifth largest producer of natural gas and fourth largest exporter About 77% of power generation is nonemitting Third largest producer of hydro power Ninth largest in installed wind capacity Vast renewable energy potential Canada s economy benefits from energy efficiency Energy efficiency contributed $32 billion in savings in 2010 Contribution of the Energy Sector to Canada s Economy GDP (2012) $155B Employment (2012) 335,500 Exports (2012) $119B Imports (2012) $54B All Government Revenues (2012) Stock of Foreign Direct Investment (2012) Stock of Direct Investment Abroad (2012) $26.6B $153B $105B Capital Expenditures (2012) $96B Source: Statistics Canada 11

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