Excellence in Market Intelligence 1

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2 Global HVAC Trends Andrew Giles Chillventa Forum October 2014

3 Our main methodology expert interviews top players Large companies Interview all of these Director of BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence 29 years at BSRIA Natural Sciences Cambridge University Interview a sample of these Small companies 3 Source: Market Research Society 3

4 Global HVAC markets agenda Agenda 4 4

5 AC Global trends Very Certain Smart buildings smart homes Joint Ventures And Alliances VRF vs. Chiller Material cost Ventilation/ DOAS Market Globalization & Industry consolidation US recovery European Economy Energy Efficiency and renewables Emerging Countries Refrigerants Market Drivers Chinese growth slowdown 5 Legislation Critical Market Restraints 5

6 Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value NAmerica 22.7bln Europe 25.9bln Japan 14.0bn China 39.0bln Total 2013 market value: 100bn Europe analysis based on following countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK 6

7 World air conditioning market, Total 2013: Euro 72.3 billion Total 2014: million units 7 7

8 Top 12 Expectations for 2014 Ranking Country Trend Market Value* Market growth**(%) Hot products China USA Japan 10,302 8, % + 1% Ductless, VRF, Chillers None Brazil 2, % Ductless, VRF, Chillers S. Korea 1, % None 6 India 1, % Ductless, VRF, Chillers Italy Saudi Arabia Australia Russia 1, % + 13% + 2% - 13% None Ductless, VRF None None 11 Germany % Ductless, VRF 12 UK % Ductless, VRF, Chillers * In Euro million for 2014 * * Forecasted growth rate from 2014 to , % VRF, Chillers 8

9 World fastest growing markets, CAGR UK Russia Turkey India China Mexico Colombia Venezuela Brazil Nigeria Vietnam Indonesia Argentina South Africa Hot spots >10% growth Warm spots >5-10% growth Cold spots <0% growth 9 9

10 Europe AC market growth e Turkey Germany UK France Italy Spain Russia 30% 24% 18% 12% 6% 0% -6% -12% -18% -24% -30% Splits+VRF (by volume) 10 Chillers (by value) 10

11 Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR ) Turkey Germany UK France Italy Spain Russia 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Splits+VRF (by volume) 11 Chillers (by value) 11

12 Global minisplit market 2014 e Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units (number of outdoor units) 6.5 million units representing 6% of global total 12 12

13 Global minisplit market Europe trends What we might have said earlier this year?? Now highly uncertain, BSRIA researching 13 13

14 World inverter air conditioning market Inverters (single + multi) by volume 2013 total market sizes 14 14

15 Global drivers Importance high med Design Quick installation Reliability EU Legislation/ Outlawing of R22; Directive 2009/125/EC on Ecodesign1 a framework for energy reduction Price of Copper Inverters Reduce noise levels Discount stores Lidl, Aldi etc. Smaller supermarkets Supermarkets Energy Efficiency/ Green credentials Improve food chain/avoid waste low In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver med high Degree of Adoption 15 15

16 Growth in refrigeration, by country, by value, CAGR 2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million 14.5% 8.7% 7.6% 7.0% 4.2% 3.7% 2.7% 2.5% 1.6% 16 16

17 BSRIA as an advisor on refrigeration RED AMBER GREEN Indicative energy savings Low savings Medium savings High savings Where technology can be applied Limited application Some application, but Universal application not widespread Ease of application Complex Medium Simple Maintenance of technology Complex Medium Simple Interaction with other technologies High interaction Some interaction No interaction Impact on water use High Medium None Applicability to Saudi Arabia Not applicable May be applicable Applicable 17 17

18 ErP - Impact on products Eco Design Fuel cell Labels mandatory from Sep A % Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Combined CB + ST system Cogeneration Gas HP Condensing boilers A % A + 98% A 90% B 82% Ground /Water to water HP Air to water HP Hybrid Heat Pumps Noncondensing boilers C 75% D 36% E 34% From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold + enhanced Controls 18 18

19 Boiler technology shift Domestic gas and oil boiler sales units Inside the EU market 000 units Outside the EU market Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea 19 19

20 Hybrid heat pumps Market potential by 2020 units CAGR % Hybrid Box Gas cond. boiler & A/W monobloc HP Modulo Hybrido Gas cond. boiler & A/W split HP 20 20

21 2020 European heating market Top 6 Heating market by volume of sales, wall hung condensing, wall hung non-condensing, floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump 000 units 21 21

22 Renewables sales curve until 2035 Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020 Units 22 22

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