UK Market Update. By Abdel Eljidi

Transcription

1 UK Market Update By Abdel Eljidi

2 EU Legislation Timeline dfe EPBD ESD RES Directive Eco-design of motor and circulator agreed Eco-design of Boiler and Water Heater National RAP Eco-design of Air Conditioner National EEAP National min. energy performance requirements EPBD 2 fully implemented SPF calculation of heat pump Financial instrument for energy efficiency Common calculation methodology for energy performance; definition of net zero building Energy saving target Eco-design of Room Heating, Hot Air Central Heating, Solid Fuel Heater. Zero energy target on existing buildings Building regulations include min. renewable energy level All new building are zero energy Key: Official in red; Prediction in blue National target of energy from renewable sources 2

3 Energy Market Gas is the main fuel for electricity generation Gasification accounts for over 90% Energy is the most deregulated market in Europe Source: DECC 3 3

4 Energy Prices Evolution of domestic energy prices in per kwh, between 2000 and 2009 NB. Average prices excluding taxes Source : Eurostat 4

5 Diversified Market New comers: Utilities Heat emitters Heating M-CHP Gas HP Heat Pumps Renewables Specialists Air conditioning New comers: Energy Mgt, IT, Coms 5

6 Diversified Market Ren. Specialists Boiler/ WH Air cond. Utilities Heat emitters Gas HP E-HP Renewables M- CHP Ventilation Specialists IT, Coms. Energy Mg 6

7 Market at Cross Roads EU Legislation National Legislation Energy Distributors Consumer Attitudes Competition Innovation Energy cost Smart Meters 7

8 From Incentives to Legislation Switch to condensing boilers has been swift Incentives favour solar PV Renewable Heat Incentive a catalyst for growth? prove it! 8

9 Phase 1: Growth of Asia heat pumps dfe CO2 heat pump launched in Japan European monobloc Switzerland, Sweden and France split unit with own hydrabox external unit CO2 unit in Sweden Altherma Ecodan partner? Aquafree acquire Estia, France unit 9 9

10 Phase 2: Invasion of gas solutions also from Asia dfe CO2 heat pump launched in Japan European monobloc Switzerland, Sweden and France split unit with own hydrabox external unit CO2 unit in Sweden Altherma Ecodan partner? Aquafree acquire Estia, France dfe 2009/10 10 unit Micro-CHP ICE/ Stirling Com. launch of FC (Japan) Resid. Gas Heat Pumps HEMS Intro. of Fuel Cell in Europe Micro-CHP expansion Smart Meters Energy Storage Systems Smart Grid + Energy Homes 10 10

11 Growing presence of Asian companies 11 11

12 UK: Open Market 12 12

13 Existing housing stock UK System evolution projections High rise buildings - Existing housing stock Individual / Communal heating systems Base scenario RHI introduced in and reduced in 2014 Zero Carbon building (2.8 million dwellings) B 165,480 units sold Market penetration: Individual combi boiler 92% 2020 (3.1 million dwellings) 232,750 units sold Others 3% B B CHP HIU B HP CYL B ST CYL Individual combi Central gas + CHP boiler boiler + Heat Interface Units 78% 11% Central boiler + HP + Central boiler + central storage cylinder(s) ST + storage cylinder(s) 6% 2% 13

14 The UK Heating Market The boiler market is the largest in Europe by value, with 1.6 million units sold in 2010, or over 1.1 billion value or 1.3 billion) Air conditioning around 450 million) Share of renewable (solar thermal and heat pumps is below 100million 14

15 Boilers by Type, 2010 Wall hung boilers dominate the market Sales of oil boilers very small Combi boilers account for bout 74% 15

16 The UK heat pump market, by volume, 2009 and 2010 Rapid growth of air to water 16

17 Market Trends Domestic Boilers, Market recovered in 2010 but still below 2007 Non-condensing boilers almost disappeared 17

18 Market Trends Water Heaters, Sales of indirect cylinders in declined for 3 years 18

19 Market Trends Solar Thermal, Steady growth but likely to decline due to popularity of PV 19

20 Market Trends Heat Pumps, Steady growth likely to continue 20

21 Residential Heating Markets, Europe, (I) 21

22 European Solar Thermal Market China: mainly thermosiphon vacuum tubes:47 million m 2 vacuum; 4 million m 2 flat plate Turkey: ~1 million m 2 /year, mainly termosiphon flat plate tubes 000 m Europe 2008: total 5.4 million m Europe 2009: 4.8 million m 2 (-11%) Europe 2010 forecast: +0.1%

23 Units Key Heat Pump Markets Trends, , , , , , ,000 60,000 40,000 20, Austria France Germany Sweden Switzerland UK 23

24 Heat recovery Market Volume,

25 Micro CHP Market Currently: ICE units (SenerTec, Vaillant Ecopower) Introduction of Stirling Engine in the market in 2009/10 (Ecogen from Baxi, evita from Remeha, Whispergen from) WhisperTech) 2011: Stirling units planned by Bosch, Ariston Thermo Group, Viessmann Field Trial: Organic Rankin cycle units (Energetix), commercialisation in 2011 Most developed markets: Japan leading; Netherlands, Germany, UK early stage Internal combustion engine Stirling engines Organic rankine cycle engine 25

26 Heating Markets Gas Heat Pumps Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps currently offered by Robur and Vaillant in Europe. Sales in Italy, Germany, Netherlands, UK and Poland, mostly for commercial applications Since 2010 residential sector is targeted with the introduction of Vaillant s Zeolite heat pump in Germany Bosch, Viessmann and Robur are in process of developing their own gas ab/adsorption heat pumps suitable for residential applications Robur gas absorption heat pump (35.2kW thermal capacity) Zeolite gas heat pump from Vaillant (10kW thermal capacity) 26

27 Japan: Largest FC Market Driven by gas distributors 27

28 Market comparison UK, France, Germany,

29 2020 Vision Future products/ technologies H2 Fuel Cells H2 Infrastructure. H2 time age.. Smart-Grids Micro Generation Networks Plus Energy Houses

30 Smart Home / home automation Smart Home HEMS Smart Meter Individual System Control Level Environmental control Smart appliances Consumer entertainment Lighting control Building component control Security system Safety alarm 30 30

31 Sensor Actuato System r controller Central controller User Interface Smart Home Tools The architecture of latest Smart Home System Keypad Touch Panel Push Button Remote controller Mobile phone/pda Web Control Some system may not require any central controller. E.g. KNX Thermostat Light control Security control Shade control Meters Switch / Relays Door / Window Actuator Blinds Motor Light sensor Motion sensor Smoke detector 31

32 Many New Entrants Services Generation Transmission Distribution Substations Consumption 32

33 System Specification: Current Devices Gas Smart Meter Electricity Smart Meter In-house Display Source: British Gas Source: British Gas Source: British Gas Gas meter measures the volume of gas that passes through it and convert this reading into an energy value. The meter can be ultrasonic or diaphragm. Electricity meter supports both import and export measurement, which enables them to support Feed in Tariffs. The meter uses 4 quadrant measurement. Configurable alerts can be used to support DNO requirements for smart grid developments. The IHD installed by British Gas (EcoMeter by Landis+Gyr) shows customers their current and previous energy consumption, estimated energy bills, additional information on PAYG, the status of interrupted devices, and outstanding debt (if any). If the electricity meter is exporting energy, the carbon emissions for the property are also displayed

34 Penetration of Smart Meters in the Residential Market 34

35 Market Size of Smart Home Market 35

36 Market Size of Home Energy Management Market 36

37 Thank you very much! Contact: Mr. Abdel Eljidi T: