GLOBAL TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION. David Stockley

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1 GLOBAL TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION David Stockley Beijing May 2011

2 KEY TRENDS 1. Changing gglobal demographics 2. Increasing global student mobility 3. Higher education as a global market 4. Declining public funding for higher education 5. Increasing private involvement in higher education 6. Student as customer 7. Transnational higher education 8. Strategic alliances, partnerships and networks 9. Education hubs 10. TheriseofAsiaandthedeclineoftheWest? and decline

3 CHANGING GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS Declining birth rates in high income countries. Asia, Africa and Latin America contribute 97% of the population growth to Higher birth rates, larger populations and lack of local higher education capacity a key driver in global student mobility. Rise of the BRIC economies. Massification of higher education. Skills shortages in high income countries international a student recruitment and migration as a part solution. Ageing populations and lower birth rates lead to funding pressures on services like higher education provision.

4 INCREASING GLOBAL STUDENT MOBILITY 3.3 million students studying abroad, forecast to rise to 5.8 million by % of the students will come from Asia, dominated by China and India, then South Korea, Japan, Turkey, Morocco and Malaysia. Fastest growth from Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Vietnam and Nigeria. Most popular destinations: USA (22%), UK (11%), Germany 9%, France and Australia each 7%. China has 5%. Increasing number are fee paying. Government policies encourage international student mobility.

5 HIGHER EDUCATION AS A GLOBAL MARKET Global demand for higher education exceeds supply. Government agendas (e.g. Bologna) oblige higher education to be more international. Global mobility of labour. International student fees more common (Sweden 2011+). Global competition in higher education : competing for funds and the best students and staff. Research global competition. Rankings. Branding and positioning i in a competitive market. The student as customer and education as a market. English as the international language.

6 DECLINING PUBLIC FUNDING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION Public expenditure on higher education per student declining globally. Pressure on provision of social services with ageing populations and shrinking revenue bases. Governments push cost to students and institutions user pays. Decline in block grants. Performance funding against external criteria increase. Education as a product and a service sold on the domestic and international market. Increased accountability [to government, industry, community], transparency and competition as a condition of public funding. Not all universities are the same. Niches and market positions and differential funding.

7 INCREASING PRIVATE INVOLVEMENT IN HIGHER EDUCATION Privatisation and private equity growth in higher education. Increased private provision of higher education. Online learning and use of technology often a focus. Private providers at forefront of technology innovationss. Institutional partnerships between public and private. Higher education as a public good or a private investment? Or is it both?

8 STUDENT AS CUSTOMER What is the average or typical student today? Higher education as an investment being purchased. Market responsiveness needed from universities. Flexibility of product and of delivery model. Pathways. Graduates will work in many different jobs and in jobs not yet in existence. Global employability. Global recognition of awards. Developing a culture of service in universities for staff and students. Consumer protection for students.

9 TRANSNATIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION TNE = delivery of higher education programs by a provider across national boundaries by physical or electronic means. An increasing part of global higher education. Motives? Lack of local capacity, desire to raise local quality and access, revenue, market positioning by overseas provider. Delivery models vary from offshore campuses to franchising of a program to a partner or third party. The overseas providing university may teach all, part or none of the program. Partnership models: twinning programs, joint or double degrees, credit transfer agreements, pathways and preparatory programs. Online delivery.

10 STRATEGIC ALLIANCES, PARTNERSHIPS AND NETWORKS Covered separately at this Conference. A part of increased global competition as individual universities struggle to compete domestically or internationally. ti International partnerships now are beyond student mobility ; y; student exchange only ypart of the phenomenon.

11 THE RISE OF ASIA AND THE DECLINE OF THE WEST? In 2010 US, UK and Australia had 42% of the global higher education student tmarket. Germany, France and China had 21%. China, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, South Korea and Gulf States have ambitions to be regional hubs of education export and research. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and China, for example, have a national strategy and funding/investment to increase their number of world class universities. Such countries plus the Gulf States are cooperating with top foreign universities as part of their regional hub strategy. European concern re relative lack of success in global rankings systems. US concerns that it is slipping in attracting and retaining the best foreign students [especially from China and India].

12 What will be the picture in 2025? Main source countries will be the same. Who will be the main receiving countries? Will public funding per student continue to decline? Will Singapore, China, South Korea and some Gulf States succeed as major education export hubs? Will there be better/more holistic global rankings systems? Will the US still dominate global research and global rankings systems? Will the growing marketisation and privatisation of higher education have slowed or accelerated?

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