Economically Optimal Adaptation of Forest Management in the Changing Climate (ECONADA consortium)

Transcription

1 Economically Optimal Adaptation of Forest Management in the Changing Climate (ECONADA consortium) by research teams of Raisa Mäkipää at Finnish Forest Research Institute and Olli Tahvonen at University of Helsinki Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA) midway seminar April 16, 2013

2 Climate change driven changes in forests Large scale analyses predict remarkable changes in the growth of major tree species and tree species dominance. Species sensitivity and acclimation capacities are poorly known. Current management practices may not be optimal in changing conditions. Source: Kellomäki et al SYKE Mimeographs 344: 1-42.

3 Predicted decline in biomass production of Norway spruce in Central Europe, BUT increase in Northern Europe Growth of Norway spruce (Picea abies) in without climate change (left) and in the changing climate (right). Change in climate according to A1B scenario, e.g. in Finland +4.4 o C. CCTAME project ( George Kinderman and Michael Obersteiner (IIASA), Tapio Linkosalo and Raisa Mäkipää (METLA), Annikki Mäkelä (UH), Manfred Lexer and Werner Rammer (BOKU).

4 Questions How growth of different tree species is affected by climate change and are there differences in their acclimation capasity? What is optimal forest management scenario in the changing climate? Is bioenergy harvesting sustainable mean to mitigate climate change?

5 Consortium with two subprojects 1. Economic optimization of forest management in changing climate with targets of wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity 2. Development of the ecological forest models on spruce, pine and birch To increase model reliability in describing forest growth To include new sub models To test the climate change induced acclimation capacity differences between different tree species

6 Economic optimization integrated with dynamic process based forest stand simulation model

7 Results from our sub projects 1. Economics of Norway spruce management with C sequestration credits 2. Soil carbon dynamics with feedbacks to trees 3. Acclimation of different tree species 4. Biodiversity measures to be included 5. Responses of mixed stands to climate change 6. Sustainability of biomass harvesting

8 Economics of forest management with C sequestration Objective was to study optimal management under positive CO 2 prices and to find the cost of CO 2 sequestration (both standing timber and wood products accounted). Previous studies fall short in optimizing only the rotation length (e.g. van Kooten et al. 1995) or using empirical statistical models that need to rely on extrapolation when stand densities and rotation lengths fall outside conventional limits (e.g. Pohjola and Valsta 2007, Raymer et al ).

9 Optimization problem Objective function: Maximized net present value of the stand over an infinite horizon (bare land value BLV) W + Q R S N0 A max BLV = ( 1- t ρ ) m t m i γ jt i m i = m j = 1-b r s.t. to the process based growth model (about difference eq.) { N0,,,,1 6, 1,...,, 1, 2, 3} ( ) Q = The present value of CO 2 subsidies related to CO 2 sequestration over one rotation R = The discounted value of CO 2 from the decay of manufactured products W = The net present value from timber harvesting over one rotation Optimization is done using Generalized Pattern Search (GPS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Number of state variables can go over Between and function evaluations are made for each initial guess.

10 Effect of CO 2 price on stand management optimal solutions (interest rate 3%) Mesic site H 100 =24 Fertile site H 100 = Volume m 3 ha Volume m 3 ha CO 2 tn ha Stand age, yrs Stand age, yrs A positive CO 2 price increases density and postpones harvests in Norway spruce stand. Source: Niinimäki et al Can J For Res, accepted.

11 The effect of CO 2 price on C sequestration in Norway spruce stand site H 100 =24, interest rate 3% site H 100 =30, interest rate 3% Additional discounted storage, CO 2 t ha Additional discounted storage, CO 2 t ha Interest rate 1% Interest rate 3% CO 2 price, t -1 Source: Niinimäki et al Can J For Res, accepted. CO 2 price, t -1

12 Analysis of soil carbon dynamics In collaboration with Russian Academy of Sciences (prof. Komarov et al), Austrian Forest Research (BFW, Dr. Jandl), and MTT (Dr. Palosuo). Source: Rantakari et al Forest Ecology and Management 286: Source: Palosuo et al Environmental Modelling & Software 35:38-49.

13 Feedbacks of nitrogen dynamics between soil and vegetation Development of process based growth modelling in collaboration with prof. Mäkelä (UH) and prof Komarov (Russian Academy of Science)

14 Effect of phenology and potential differences in the acclimation capacity of tree species Mid-April Pine: fluorescence follows the sliding average of mean air temperature Spruce: Mean air temperature is not enough to predict measured F v /F m. Photosynthetic capasity is developed earlier that predicted.

15 Phenological acclimation Since coniferous species have smaller acclimation capacity to changing climate, deciduous species might be favored by climate change more than conifers.

16 Spruce birch mixture as well as pine dominated sites have positive response to climate change. Fig. Effect of climate change on carbon stock of mixed birch pine and birch spruce stands. Averages over the simulation period and s.d. resulting from climatic characteristics of different climate scenarios.

17 Dead wood dynamics and biodiversity indicators Simulated stand development and number of dead trees Simulated number of logs in different decay phases Source Peltoniemi et al. in prep.

18 Sustainability of bioenergy harvesting In the GHG reporting, compustion of biomass is considered to be carbon neutral (IPCC GL). Intensive biomass harvesting may decrease growth of trees carbon stocks of forest soil and vegetation Loss of forest C stocks can offsets GHG benefits of substituting fossil fuels with biomass. Negative effects can be further accelerated in changing climate

19 Whole tree harvesting decreases both biomass and soil C stock Current Climate Changing Climate Stand age Stand age 1st thinning nd thinning Biomass of trees (left) and soil organic matter (right) with conventional and whole tree harvesting in current and changed climate. Source: Mäkipää et al. ms in prep.

20 Conclusions and future work Stand thinnings are postponed and rotation period extended if forest carbon sequestration is credited, but current CO 2 price does not lead to major changes in optimal management. Both soil C & N dynamics and soil moisture matters when stand responses to changing climate are analysed. Biodiversity implications of management practices can be simulated, i.e. possible to account in further analysis. Use of forest biomass in energy production is not C neutral.

21 Publications of this consortium In peer reviewed journals Niinimäki, S., Tahvonen, O. & Mäkelä, A Applying a process based model in Norway spruce management. For. Ecol. Managem. 265: Rantakari, M., Lehtonen, A., Linkosalo, T., Tuomi, M., Tamminen, P., Heikkinen, J., Liski, J., Mäkipää, R., Ilvesniemi, H. & Sievänen, R The Yasso07 soil carbon model Testing against repeated soil carbon inventory. Forest Ecology and Management 286: Palosuo, T., Foereid, B., Svensson, M., Shurpali, N., Lehtonen, A., Herbst, M., Linkosalo, T., Ortiz, C., Todorovic, G.R., Marcinkonis, S., Li, C. & Jandl, R A multi model comparison of soil carbon assessment of a coniferous forest stand. Environmental Modelling and Software 35: Niinimäki, S., Tahvonen, O., Mäkelä, A. & Linkosalo, T On the Economics of Norway Spruce Stands and Carbon Storage. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, accepted for publication. Shanin, V., Komarov, A., Khoraskina, Y., Bykhovets, S., Linkosalo, T. & Mäkipää, R Carbon turnover in mixed stands: Modelling possible shifts under climate change. Ecological Modelling 251: Tahvonen, O., Pihlainen, S. & Mäkelä, A. On the optimal management of boreal Scots pine stands. Submitted manuscript, December Linkosalo, T., Kolari, P. & Pumpanen, J. New Decomposition Rate Functions and Corresponding Volumetric Soil Water Model for the ROMUL Decomposition Model. Submitted Manuscript, December Linkosalo, T., Kolari, P., Mäkipää, R., Pumpanen, J. & Mäkelä, A. Response of boreal forests to increased temperature and CO2 concentration simulating different climate change scenarios. Submitted manuscript, December Shanin, V., Komarov, A. & Mäkipää, R. Tree species composition affects productivity and carbon dynamics on different site types in boreal forests. Submitted manuscript, March Guendehou, S., Liski, J., Tuomi, M., Moudachirouc, M., Sinsin, B. & Mäkipää, R. Test of validity of a dynamic soil carbon model using data from leaf litter decomposition in a West African tropical forest. Submitted manuscript, March Linkosalo, T., Duursma, R.S., Pumpanen, J., Kolari, P., Mäkipää, R. & Mäkelä, A.. The effect of climatic warming to the soil water potential, number of drought days, and potential GPP on Finnish evergreen forests. Manuscript. Other Framstad, E., de Wit, H., Mäkipää, R., Larjavaara, M., Vesterdal, L. & Karltun, E Biodiversity, carbon storage and dynamics of old northern forests. TemaNord 2013: p. Mäkipää, R Ilmastonmuutos ja metsien hoito vaikuttavat metsien hiilitaseeseen. Metsätieteen aikakauskirja 2/2012: Mäkipää, R. & Linkosalo, T Ilmastonmuutos ja metsien hoito vaikuttavat talousmetsien kykyyn sitoa hiiltä. Julkaisussa: Asikainen, A., Ilvesniemi, H., Sievänen, R., Vapaavuori, E. & Muhonen, T. (toim.). Bioenergia, ilmastonmuutos ja Suomen metsät. Working Papers of the Finnish Forest Research Institute 240:

22 Project team Finnish Forest Research Institute Adjunct prof. Raisa Mäkipää Dr. Tapio Linkosalo Adjunct prof. Pertti Pulkkinen Dr. Mikko Peltoniemi Adjunct prof. Markku Larjavaara University of Helsinki Prof. Olli Tahvonen Sami Niinimäki Sampo Pihlainen Janne Rämö Aapo Rautiainen Collaborators Prof. Annikki Mäkelä (University of Helsinki) Prof. Alex Komarov (Russian Academy of Science)

23 Thank you Kiitos Further information index en.htm