The UK Timber Resource and Future Supply Chain. Ben Ditchburn Forest Research

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1 The UK Timber Resource and Future Supply Chain Ben Ditchburn Forest Research

2 Timber availability The landscape of timber availability in Great Britain and the United Kingdom is moving through a period of significant change Conifer biological availability is set to increase over the next 15 years to 18 million m3 obs by 2031, returning to levels similar to current domestic production of 12 million m3 obs by 2047 There are almost unnoticed forest resources in a hardwood annual increment of circa 6 million m3 obs Yet Britain is not fully utilising these resources and at face value it appears that the scale of wood product utilisation and processing capacity is not commensurate with potential wood supply How do we know this?

3 The National Forest Inventory Evidence base for the sector To inform and influence: Policy makers Politicians Decision makers within the sector Investors The public The scientific community

4 The National Forest Inventory Started in 2009 the NFI is a rolling programme of forest and woodland monitoring It replaces the previous series of one off snapshot inventories conducted by the FC every 10 years or so since 1924 The application of new technologies and approaches have enabled a much deeper and broader picture of woodlands to be drawn The rolling nature enables for accurate and up to date statistics as well as change monitoring

5 NFI design 1. Forest Map 2. 15,000 one Ha Survey Squares 3. Map + Squares brought together in the NFI DB 4. Survey Square details multiplied up to the NFI map area X GB Server 5. NFI Information Produced Volume 5

6 Annually updated map the backbone of woodland gain and loss statistics

7 Forest Boundaries from Aerial Photography

8 Remote sensing updates to the map Woodland signature Clearfell with unique signature

9 RS clearfell Detection

10 RS clearfell Detection

11 Sample survey design Systematic random sampling Plus top ups

12 Field Sample Locations Fieldwork First Cycle 5 of 5 years complete sample squares Around 25,000 stands & 521,000 trees measured Second Cycle First year of 5 underway 1000 re measures taken

13 Survey at each square Forest type & landuse Gross / net area Habitat type & condition Silvicultural Systems Species Canopy structure Planting year Recent Treatment Management Practice Thinning history Access & ease of harvesting Boundary & cultural features Micro-Habitats & veteran trees Recreation & social factors Mensuration assessments: dbh height measurements crown widths and depths stocking species straightness (conifers) live / dead Natural Regeneration NVC & ground, field & shrub layer vegetation General health Dead wood Invasive Species

14 Fully digital data logging

15 Woodland Structure

16 Tree Heights

17 Vertical structure

18 Canopy Stratification

19 Sample plot with sample trees 5.64 m radius sample plot All trees above 4cm dbh mapped and measured

20 Seedling, sapling and dead wood transects within the sample plot

21 Tree in or out of plot

22 Tree location

23 Tree Diameter

24 GPS trace of NFI surveyor

25 09/05/2016 Individual tree measures

26 09/05/2016 Derived data / Growing stock

27 2 09/05/2016 Extrapolation of data

28 NFI Regions North Scotland North East Scotland West Scotland East Scotland South Scotland North East England North West England Yorkshire & the Humber East Midlands Wales West Midlands East England South West England South East England & London

29 Conifer species distributions in stocked area FC Private sector Total Principal species area area area SE% (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) England All conifers Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Scotland All conifers Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Wales All conifers Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers Great Britain All conifers ,349.0 Sitka spruce Scots pine Corsican pine Norway spruce Larches Douglas fir Lodgepole pine Other conifers

30 Standing volume in thousands of cubic metres overbark standing Standing Volume 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales FC estate Private sector

31 Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark standing) 0-20 years years years SV by age class by GB years years 100+ years GB 2012 Standing Coniferous by age class 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Age class FC estate Private sector

32 Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark 0-20 years years years years years 100+ years SV by age class by country 0-20 years years years years years 100+ years 0-20 years years years years years 100+ years GB 2011 Standing Coniferous by age class 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 England Scotland Age class FC estate Private sector Wales

33 Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark 0-7 cm 7-10 cm cm cm cm cm cm cm 80+ cm SV by dbh class by country 0-7 cm 7-10 cm cm cm cm cm cm cm 80+ cm 0-7 cm 7-10 cm cm cm cm cm cm cm 80+ cm GB 2012 Standing Coniferous by dbh class 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 England Scotland Dbh class FC estate Private sector Wales

34 Volume (thinning & felling) (thousands of cubic metres overbark standing) yr Softwood Availability ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Period FC estate Private sector

35 Private sector conifer harvesting scenarios 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Zero intervention No thinning No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 25 metre terminal height No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 21 metre terminal height Thinning based on observed practice Thin all 2006 Industry Harvesting prescriptions 4,000 2,

36 000s m 3 obs Conifer overdue timber 14,000 12,000 10,000 No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 25 metre terminal height No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 21 metre terminal height Thin all Thinning based on observed practice 8,000 No thinning 6, Industry Harvesting prescriptions 4,000 2,000 DAMS overdue 42 million m 3 obs DAMS overdue 49 million m 3 obs Thin all overdue 39 million m 3 obs Thin based upon observed practice overdue 54 million m3 obs No thin overdue 52 million m 3 obs 2006 prescription overdue 66 million m 3 obs Zero intervention Forecast period

37 Avergae annual production per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) yr. conifer forecast year forecast of softwood production (thinning plus felling) 14,000 12,000 10,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales

38 Avergae annual standing volume per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) years of standing volume year forecast of softwood standing volume 250, , ,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 100,000 50,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales

39 Avergae annual net increment per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) yr. increment forecast year forecast of softwood net increment 14,000 12,000 10,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales

40 volume in 000s of cubic metres overbark standing Comparing the three year summary of softwood standing volume, increment and production for GB (FC and PS) 250, ,000 Average annual standing volume per period 200, ,000 Total net increment per period 150, ,000 Total production per period 100, ,000 50,000 50, FC Estate Private sector

41 41 5/9/2016 Causes Why does this uneven profile of availability occur? History or creating a new plantation resource

42 Area (ha) /9/ ,000 Area of new planting GB (FC & non-fc, grant aided & non-grant aided) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 GB 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

43 volume (millions m3 obs) Private sector scenarios - basic Great Britain - PS 100 year forecast of average annual production (all conifers) under differing harvesting assumptions with like-for-like restocking BPDAMS BPDAMS16-21 BPThinAll BPThinPast 6.0 BPThinNone Strat Reg

44 44 5/9/2016 Consequences What scale should the conifer sector scale itself to; 12 million or 13, 14 or more? How long will the uncut timber stand around, will it continue to grow and accrue value or will it depreciate and blow over or succumb to disease? Mitigations?

45 Average annual thin plus fell volume (000 m 3 obs) 45 11/12/2015 Timber production forecast 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Forecast period

46 Average annual thin plus fell volume (000 m 3 obs) 46 11/12/ years of mitigation 24,000 22,000 20,000 Phase 1 Delay felling 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Phase 2 Plant ha per annum Plant ha per annum Plant 6000 ha per annum Forecast period

47 47 11/12/2015 Impact of 30 years planting GB Landuse Current % landuse share 2015 Share under 6,000 ha % Share by 2045 Share under 10,000 ha Share under 15,000 ha Rural & open Urban Woodland

48 Broadleaved species distributions in stocked area FC Private sector Total Principal species area area area SE% (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) England All broadleaves Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Scotland All broadleaves Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Wales All broadleaves Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves Great Britain All broadleaves , ,276.9 Oak Beech Sycamore Ash Birch Sweet chestnut Hazel Hawthorn Alder Willow Other broadleaves

49 Millions of m 3 overbark standing Standing Volume by Age Class FC Private Sector Age class (years)

50 Millions of m 3 overbark standing Blvd. Standing Volume by Size Great Britain FC Great Britain PS mean stand dbh class (cm)

51 Avergae annual production per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) Scenarios for hardwoods The impact of different harvesting scenarios upon 50-year timber potential for the Private sector (GB). 12,000 10,000 Thin and fell only where evidence of thinning practice (BLV2) 8,000 Thin and fell all stands (BLV3) 6,000 4,000 2,000 Thin and fell all stands. Management regimes that maximise yield (BLV4) 0

52 volume in 000s of cubic metres overbark standing SV/I/T&F) 50-year summary of broadleaf standing volume, increment and production for GB (FC/NRW and PS) 450, ,000 Standing volume at start of forecast period 400, , , ,000 Total net increment per period 300, , , ,000 Total production per period 200, , , , , ,000 50,000 50, FC/NRW Estate Private sector

53 carbon (000 tonnes) Conifers Broadleaves Conifers Broadleaves Conifers Broadleaves Carbon Stocks Conifers Broadleaves 120,000 Total carbon stocks (000 tonnes) in living trees in woodlands in Great Britain at 31 March 2011 Great Britain FC 100,000 Great Britain PS England FC 80,000 England PS Scotland FC 60,000 Scotland PS 40,000 Wales FC Wales PS 20,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales

54 carbon (000 tonnes) Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Carbon Stocks Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Total carbon stocks (000 tonnes) in living trees in woodlands in England at 31 March ,000 FC PS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 North West Englan d North East Englan d Yorks and Humber East Midlands East England South East England South West England West Midlands

55 Conclusions Removals are below increment in GB and UK, especially for broadleaves This disparity will grow, as our relatively young trees mature Uneven availability over short, medium and long terms We already have a significant stock of trees over due for felling, this will only be added to Large volume of increment without commensurate processing capacity Mitigations; delayed felling, new planting and additional processing?

56 More Information Questions? For information on the NFI: Or Google National Forest Inventory Contact:

57 The UK Timber Resource and Future Supply Chain Ben Ditchburn Forest Research

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