Uncertainty assessment of forest carbon balance. HMS seminaari 2.9 Vantaa

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1 Uncertainty assessment of forest carbon balance

2 Research Team Finnish Forest Research Institute Raisa Mäkipää, Mikko Peltoniemi, Aleksi Lehtonen European Forest Institute (EFI) Taru Palosuo, Terhi Kaipainen Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) Ilkka Savolainen, Suvi Monni, Sanna Syri Financed by the Ministry of the Environment and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

3 Contents Introduction Objective Methods Sources of errors & Preliminary results Next steps

4 Introduction IPCC good practice guidance (2004) sets requirements to assess uncertainty of the national GHG inventories including LULUCF sector Uncertainty analysis not included in current reporting of LULUCF sector No examples of uncertainty analysis covering all pools (living biomass, dead wood, litter & SOM)

5 Objectives of this work To assess uncertainty of the carbon budget of Finnish forests To identify sources of error and their uncertainties To identify the key variables affecting the uncertainty of carbon budget of Finnish forests

6 Methods IPCC GPG presents two methods to estimate uncertainty TIER 1, error propagation equations TIER 2, Monte Carlo analysis TIER 2 Method selected because Sample distributions often cut (no values less than zero allowed) or skewed Handling of correlations easier

7 Monte Carlo Simulations Methods Input parameters of calculation are replaced with probability density functions (e.g. normal or lognormal distributions) Total uncertainty is obtained performing calculation by taking random numbers from each input distribution several thousands of times X = Input parameter 1 distribution Input parameter 2 distribution Result distribution

8 Sources of errors and preliminary results presented for carbon stock of living biomass and C sink/source of biomass soil carbon pool and soil sink/source Carbon stock (Tg) Carbon stock Carbon sink or source Carbon sink or source (Tg/year) Year -10

9 Forest vegetation carbon stock Vegetation stock 2002 Vegetation stock N ,00 700,00 750,00 800,00 850,00 Carbon stock, Tg

10 Change in vegetation carbon stock Vegetation sink 2002 Vegetation sink N ,00-1,00 1,00 3,00 5,00 7,00 9,00 11,00 Change in carbon stock, Tg

11 Carbon stock of mineral soils Vegetation carbon stock, mineral soils 2002 Soil carbon stock, mineral soils 2002 N Carbon stock (Mg C)

12 Carbon sink of forests on mineral soil, Change in vegetation carbon stock Change in soil carbon stock 150 N Change in carbon stock (Tg C)

13 Key parameters affecting the C stock of veg. Vegetation carbon stock 2002 Contribution to variance with Parameter given uncertainty range Carbon content 53,7% understorey biomass, pine 13,8% understorey biomass, spruce 1,6% BEF-TOTAL pine, old stands 1,5% BEF-TOTAL deciduos, 50 years 1,4% BEF-TOTAL pine, mature stands 1,1%

14 Key parameters affecting the C sink of veget. Vegetation carbon stock change 2002 Contribution to variance with Parameter given uncertainty range Growth index, 2002, spruce, south 21,2% Growth index, 2002, pine, south 18,9% Growth index, 2002, pine, north 6,8% Growth index, 2002, deciduous, south 4,5% Drain, 2002, pine, south 3,6% Growth index, 2001, spruce, south 2,4%

15 Key parameters affecting the C stock of soil Soil carbon stock 2002 Contribution to variance with Parameter given uncertainty range Yasso parameter, p_lig-all 33,0% Yasso parameter, k_hum2-all 27,1% Yasso parameter, p_hum1-all 12,2% Yasso parameter, k_hum1-all 8,8% Yasso parameter, p_cel-all 2,7% Fine root biomass 0,9%

16 Key parameters affecting the soil C sink Soil carbon stock change 2002 Contribution to variance with Parameter given uncertainty range Temperature sum, current year, South 42,4% Temperature sum, current year, North 35,5% Decomposition temperature sensitivity (beta) 2,2% Temperature sum, previous year, South 1,9% Temperature sum, previous year, North 1,7% Yasso parameter, a_fwl-all 1,2% Drain 2001, Spruce, South 1,2%

17 Conclusions The most influencial parameters affecting the stocks are different from the ones affecting the sinks/sources: Sinks/sources are sensitive to parameters that change in time: Vegetation: Drain, annual variation in growth Soil: Temperature sum and parameters sensitive to temperature

18 This work is a part of the joint project (Metla, VTT, EFI) Uncertainty assessment of forest carbon balance The objectives of the project to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the carbon inventories of LULUCF sector to develop a model on these uncertainties to estimate the overall uncertainty in the carbon sink and source inventories of LULUCF sector and determine the key classes of LULUCF in relation to inventories of all other sectors

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