German efforts on hydrogen for transport

Transcription

1 German efforts on hydrogen for transport Ulrich Bünger Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn, Germany 9 th Hydrogen Link Workshop, Risø DTU, Denmark 1 December

2 Outline Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Drivers for change Development status FCEVs Development status H 2 infrastructure and refuelling Outlook, next steps Bild: MS Office 2

3 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Experts for sustainable energy and mobility since almost 30 years Sustainability and resource analysis Assessment of alternative fuels & infrastructure Energy concepts and -strategies International customers in industry, financial sector, politics and associations Competence in renewable energy systems and H 2 as energy carrier Joint European projects Consultant to European Parliament Co-author to German VDE study H 2 -strategy support for German Länder and industry Rigorous systems approach thinking beyond sectoral borders 3

4 Outline Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Drivers for change Development status FCEVs Development status H 2 infrastructure and refuelling Outlook, next steps Bild: MS Office 4

5 Drivers for change Phase out nuclear electricity Necessity to reduce use of coal without CCS for production of electricity German wide decision to massively build-out renewable energy Growing awareness of grid extension, smart grids and energy storage Climate control renewable energy H 2 Mobility emission free, leave behind oil, competitive fluctuation, storage Energy system 5

6 New energy supply paradigm Supply gap Renewable electricity to become dominant Fuels replaced by electricity specific challenge for transport Source: LBST,

7 Add direct hydrogen to the energy scheme Direct hydrogen fuel 7

8 Consequences of climate policy goals Statement Member of Bundestag: If we want to sustain a future for energy intensive industry in Germany, then a 80% CO 2 -emission cut by 2050 has the consequence that all other sectors must reduce their GHG-emissions to ZERO. CO 2 -equivalents (IPCC 2007); goal -90% by

9 Outline Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Drivers for change Development status FCEVs Development status H 2 infrastructure and refuelling Outlook, next steps Bild: MS Office 9

10 FCEV development achievements Long-year, continuous approach in industry and politics, research less pronounced. Initialization by car industry to reach consensus with energy industry and politics Transport Energy Strategy (VES) Transparency, continuity GM WtW Study Europe Transparency for public European consensus process x CONCAWE/EUCAR/JRC WtW Study From D to rest of EU HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap depth, width GermanHy ( Where does hydrogen come from in 2050? ) Scoping Preparation of Commercialisation EU Coalition Study FCEV plays important role in E-Mobility x H 2 Mobility industry consortium Prepare business for H 2 -retail 10

11 FCEV development achievements 11

12 Worldwide FCEV commercialization strategy Daimler st GEN: A-class nd GEN: B-class 1,000 3 rd GEN: B-class 10,000 p.a. 4 th GEN: B-class 100,000 p.a. 5 th GEN: e.g. C-class Fiat 20 H 2 CNG Panda > 20 Panda < 10 FCVs PSA 307 CC FiSyPAC Nissan Renault Volkswagen 20 X-Trail FCV 15 No further commercialization plans before 2020 (+ 20 Passat Lingju with Tongji Univ.) Ford 30 FCVs GM 110 Equinox 10,000 FCVs 100,000 FCVs 250,000 FCVs Toyota >100 FCHV-adv (SUV) FCV Sedan Honda 200 FCX Clarity 1,000 Hyundai Kia SAIC Riversimple 100 >100 p.a. 2,000 10,000 p.a. 30,000 p.a. 100,000 p.a. 15 Roewe Roewe ,000 p.a. Quelle: GM, LBST

13 Cost reduction for FCEVs Industry consensus BEV FCEV EURO Battery Other BEV spec. parts Glider Cost expectation 2020 EURO FC - MEA (w/o catalyst) FC catalyst FC - structure FC - periphery Other FC spec. parts Hydrogen tank Glider FC assembly Cost reduction batteries (30 kwh) to ca. 300 /kwh by 2020 (system: -80%) and FC stacks to ca. 43 /kw by 2020 (system: -90%) By 2020 BEV and FCEV will cost about the same at ca BUT: Vehicles will not be equal (refuelling, reach per refuelling) Source: EU Coalition Study 2010; LBST 2010 (compact car) Bild: MS Office 13

14 Outline Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Drivers for change Development status FCEVs Development status H 2 infrastructure and refuelling Outlook, next steps Bild: MS Office 14

15 Building H 2 infrastructure A transition challenge H 2 refuelling infrastructure means investment risks, specifically for retail Ca ,000 H 2 stations sufficient to fuel 600,000 FCEVs (2020) BUT: high initial investment risks. Only ca. 4,000 fuelling stations in long-term, advantage versus BEVs. BUT: who provides RoI for less frequented fuelling stations? Who will be investors? Today s contributors participate at different risk level BUT: H 2 is universal and offers business opportunities for new ideas/investors. Public risk sharing required, CO 2 - emission reduction to be enforced. s Quelle: Statoil 2007 s 00 Source: LBST 2009 Bild: MS Office Source: LBST, 2009; Herbert/NOW,

16 Germany as pilot for worldwide H 2 infrastructure roll out? Country Instrument Motivation / Interest Since Fuelling stations planned Germany H 2 Mobility Vehicle&process innovation, GHG emission reduction transport, oil independancy, energy savings&storage HRS by 2013 up to 600 HRS by 2020 Denmark PPP Commercial, vehicle tax, electrolysis tax HRS by 2015 Norway PPP REN energy, vehicle taxes 2011 X HRS by 2020 UK like H 2 Mobility Commercial 2011? France like H 2 Mobility Commercial 2011? California CaFCP Air quality 2010 ca. 20 HRS by 2012 Japan like H 2 Mobility Energy diversity&savings, vehicle innovation TS bis 2015 Korea PPP REN energy, energy savings, vehicle innovation 2008 ca. 50 TS bis 2015 * Other regional initiatives known such as Bolzano and Sweden Bild: MS Office 16

17 European / German roadmap to H 2 infrastructure roll-out Source: Herbert/NOW, 2011 Bild: MS Office 17

18 Achievements & selected end products Germany Source: Herbert/NOW, 2011 Bild: MS Office 18

19 H 2 Mobility specs for standard H 2 refuelling station Source: H 2 Mobility, 2010 Bild: MS Office 19

20 NIP Lighthouse CEP next steps (1) 2015 (total numbers): 90 refuelling stations 200 FCEVs 30 FC buses Source: Herbert/NOW, 2011 Bild: MS Office 20

21 NIP Lighthouse CEP next steps (2) Source: Herbert/NOW, 2011 Bild: MS Office 21

22 H 2 for storage of fluctuating REN electricity Beispiel: Source: LBST,

23 Use of H 2 from storage of REN electricity Highest achieveable prices for hydrogen as transport fuel 2 nd priority is hydrogen for industry (depending on branch and end use) and re-electrification Lowest priority has H 2 admixture to natural gas grid Change in policy targets can impact sequence, e.g. existing NG infrastructure could receive high priority Source: LBST, 2011 Prices achieveable for hydrogen in /kg H2 23

24 Key technology Electrolysis Alkali-electrolysis Established technology Limited dynamics Scaling uad dynamics by modular approach PEM-electrolysis Large scale electrolysers in development (e.g. 90 MW el by 2018) Pressure electrolysers (e.g. 5 MPa) Part load depends solely on subsystems (e.g. 5%) Overloads possible (e.g. ca. 300 % of nominal) Dynamics (black-start :30 min, slew-rate: >>10 MW/min) Synergies with PEM fuel cells (transport) Siemens AG: cost reduction, system integration Photo: Hydrogenics Photo: Siemens 24

25 Key technology Salt cavern Photo: KBB 2010 Photo: IVG 2011 Photo: KBB

26 Pilot projects Hybrid power plant Prenzlau (Enertrag, Total, Vattenfall) Greenpeace Windgas juwi prototype plant with Solarfuel (SNG) Audi pilot project E.ON Falkenhagen E.ON Bayern Consortium 3 sites SH und BB Source: Enertrag 26

27 Status of discussion in Germany Biofuel hype over: accepted as precious and limited resource, competitive demand for food production, stationary use, materials and other complex transport BEV hype over: missing universality for all applications, limited GHG emission reduction, complex infrastructure, PHEV as perfect transition E-Mobility with complementary vehicle technologies increasingly accepted Commercialization timeline of FCEV/BEV/PHEV not fully agreed among OEMs Progress of monolithic consortium strategy H 2 Mobility slower than expected, but H 2 station rollout decision taken: ca. 20 by 2012, 90 by 2015, up to 600 by Role of oil industry in H 2 infrastructure not obvious, historical dissonance between natural gas and automotive industry, electricity and natural gas industry interested Hydrogen gaining wider acceptance to become more than just a fuel for transport Individual interests instead of consensus prevailing H 2 refuelling station roll-out International competition from FCEV/H 2 consortia on the rise 27

28 Selected further steps Synergy of hydrogen for transport and hydrogen for energy storage to be assessed in detail Role of H 2 in natural gas grid for REN energy storage to be further assessed (direct-h 2 admixture, methanation or 100% H 2 in subgrids) Potentially practical limitations for the use of direct admixture of H 2 to NG grid (e.g. H 2 in underground storage, H 2 in CNG vehicle tanks) Decentralization of future energy systems (sources, distribution, storage) Commercial development of different energy storage technologies (including hydrogen for onsite, regional and central storage) Realistic assumptions for energy/electricity prices and access to / price development of REN electricity Linking with other regions 28

29 Contact Dr. Ulrich Bünger +49/89/ Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Daimlerstr München/Ottobrunn Web: 29