H2 MOBILITÉ FRANCE. Study for a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle national deployment plan. v12

Transcription

1 H2 MOBILITÉ FRANCE Study for a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle national deployment plan v12

2 FRANCE DEFINED ITS HYDROGEN MOBILITY IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Part of the Hydrogen Infrastructure for Transport (HIT) project European project financed by the EU (TEN-T program) 4 Member States, 7 partners: Dutch ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, Air Liquide, AFHYPAC, Copenhagen Hydrogen Network, HyER, Hydrogen Link Denmark, and Hydrogen Sweden Supported by the Ministry of Environment and Energy DGEC + ADEME Endorsed by the whole Government NFI plans «Energy Storage» Developed by the H2 Mobilité France Consortium A strong and wide coalition Analytical support provided by Element Energy 2

3 Government Energy companies H2 MOBILITÉ FRANCE CONSORTIUM SPANS FROM ENERGY COMPANIES TO END CUSTOMERS Hydrogen and HRS Producers Vehicle and Fuel Cells Electrolyser providers Research organisations Regions EU and French Associations 3

4 H2 MOBILITÉ FRANCE Outcomes of the study

5 ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY BENEFITS 5

6 HYDROGEN MOBILITY WILL HELP FRANCE MEET ITS CO 2 TARGETS AND SUPPORT AN ENERGY TRANSITION Quality of life CO 2 emissions Energy security and impact on economy Energy transition Societal cost savings : 500million 2 over the period Societal cost of the CO 2 emissions, noise and pollutants of an ICE vehicle: 510 per year, reduced to 160 for a FCEV 1. By 2030, the fleet of FCEVs will save 1.2Mt of CO 2 per year Equivalent to 780,000 diesel vehicles Annual CO 2 savings from 1.2Mt p.a. in 2030 to 10.4Mt in 2050 FCEVs improve the energy independence factor of France 3TWh e of electricity used by fuel cell vehicles by 2030 Value creation of 700M for H2 Sales in France H 2 production through water electrolysers offers the opportunity to integrate renewable generation as well as smooth the loading factor of nuclear plants H 2 can also be injected in the gas grid or combined with CO 2 to produce synthetic methane and thus decarbonise other sectors 1. As per approach use by CGDD in their 2011 report on vehicle total cost of ownership that accounts for social cost of vehicles; 2. Discounted at 4%; EUR 850million undiscounted 6

7 HYDROGEN VEHICLES CAN REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT COMPARED TO DIESEL AND PHEVS WTW, g CO2eq / km ICE diesel BEV FCEV PHEV H2 RE-EV values % -54% % Fuel Cell vehicles offer zero tailpipe emissions No particulates, no CO 2, no NOx, no SOx, low noise H 2 RE-EV: 88% lower emissions compared to diesel in 2015 FCEV: 77% lower emissions compared to diesel in 2030 ICE: diesel, BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle, H 2 RE-EV: H 2 Range Extended EV, FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle, PHEV: Plug-In Electric Vehicle H 2 working group analysis based on: Enerdata Balance scenario: CO 2 intensity of the electricity grid in g/kWh Diesel ICE efficiency based on consortium vehicle manufacturer data 7

8 HYDROGEN ENABLES THE WIDESPREAD USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN TRANSPORT Reference scenario reference CO 2 pathway On-site WE Current 2017 SMR By-product Hydrogen Production will become decarbonized progressively thanks to electrolysis and biogas Introduction of low carbon production processes can reduce the carbon footprint by a factor of two by Existing French electricity grid highly favourable for producing low CO 2 hydrogen Biogas reforming could help decarbonizing SMR footprint Large renewable deployments have been announced for coastal regions Hydrogen production supports integration of high proportions of renewable electricity into the grid 8

9 ON SITE H 2 PRODUCTION BECOMES COMPETITIVE AT DISTANCES GREATER THAN 150KM FROM INDUSTRIAL H 2 PRODUCTION SITES On-site water electrolysis EURO / kg for 80 kg/day hydrogen refuelling station 7,8 6,4 6,1 5,7 Assumptions: Excluding margin, compression and distribution costs for onsite production Centralised water electrolysis Large-scale (5-10t/day) WE unlikely to be built in this period 7,3 7,2 300 km round trip for delivered H 2 Hydrogen costs include revenues of ~1 /kg from balancing services provided to the electricity grid Electricity price assumption of 114 /MWh for electrolysers in 2030, based on Enerdata Balance scenario 9

10 THE FCEV MARKET COULD REACH VEHICLES IN vehicles Large cars Mid-size cars Light commercial vehicles t of hydrogen FCEV parc, x Hydrogen demand, tons x1000 p.a. 600 HRS kg/d 212kg/d 420kg/d 3 TWh of electricity demand ,269 1,526 3, HRS Network Electricity demand for electrolysis, GWh p.a. 10

11 MARKET APPROACH 11

12 A NATIONWIDE APPROACH WAS INVESTIGATED AT FIRST We followed the approach based on UK and Germany data and methodologies For a real passenger car market, a nation-wide infrastructure is needed from the very start This requires large investments and generates operating losses the early years Global H2 infrastructure deployment Nation-wide from scratch 600M on 10 years of investment 12

13 AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH WAS THEN DEVELOPED THAT MINIMIZES RISKS IN THE EARLY YEARS The infrastructure roll-out is focused on local fleets in the early years Vehicles and HRS are deployed once enough local clients are identified A good HRS load factor is achievable from the beginning Initial investment capacity and risk of under-utilisation are greatly reduced We identified suitable market segments (1) : Delivery/utility Taxis Urban duty logistics Fleet cars (1) Buses were not considered among the earliest market due to the current high cost premium and refuelling patterns in private bus depots 13

14 FIRST ANALYSIS OF MARKET SEGMENTS HIGHLIGHTED THE ROLE OF CLUSTERS OF CAPTIVE FLEETS Captive Fleet definition Fleet vehicles with predictable driving and refuelling patterns Vehicles making regular visits to or overnight parking at a depot Cluster definition Multiple fleets of customers within a defined area One or a few Hydrogen Refuelling Stations (HRS) per cluster 14

15 CAPTIVE FLEET APPROACH: A WAY OF STARTING THE MARKET, AHEAD OF A 3 PHASE NATIONAL ROLLOUT Clusters Clusters Affordable investments Maximises HRS utilisation rate Investment TRIGGERS Supply of series FCEVs 2 nd generation FCEV drives cost decrease Policy support Evidence consumers will buy Regulation barriers addressed Linkage of clusters National-scale deployment FCEV full scale commercialisation Widespread network for passenger car drivers Sufficient vehicles to create viable business case for refuelling stations PRECISE HRS LOCATIONS TO BE DEFINED IN NEXT PROJECT STEPS Area where HRS provide coverage HRS in place as of 2014 Highway with HRS 15

16 STARTING WITH RE-EVS: 65% LOWER VEHICLE COST VS. FULL POWER FCEVS AT LOW VOLUMES Comparison of van purchase costs including existing bonus/malus* 100% 100 to 500 units/year ( ) 1000 to units/year ( ) and units/year ( ) Additional fuel cell powertrain costs Battery cost premium (leasing or ownership model) Vehicle glider cost (including bonus for electric powertrains between ) ICE BEV -65% H 2 RE-EV FCEV ICE BEV -48% H 2 RE-EV FCEV ICE : diesel, BEV : Battery Electric Vehicle, H 2 RE-EV : H 2 Range Extended EV, FCEV : Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Range-extended Electric Vehicles offer a significantly lower cost route to market than full power FCEVs at low volume, due to smaller fuel cells and lower pressure hydrogen tanks At high volumes, purchase premium relative to EV falls to for the RE-EV and for the FCEV ICE BEV -6% H 2 RE-EV FCEV * Current bonus of ~6 000 reduces cost premium of electric powertrains relative to a diesel van, although a cost premium due to the battery remains. By 2020, battery cost reductions are expected allow a competitive EV cost without the bonus, and the remaining battery cost will be offset by fuel cost savings during the life of the vehicle 16

17 ADAPTING STATION SIZE TO EXPECTED FLEET DEMAND ENABLES A 32% REDUCTION IN HYDROGEN COST VERSUS LARGER STATIONS IN THE EARLY YEARS -32% Dispensed H 2 costs range for captive fleet HRS /H 2 kg 350bar 35kg/day 350bar 80kg/day 350/700bar 80kg/day 350bar 212kg/day 350/700bar 212kg/day Starting with 350 bar refuelling enables lower HRS costs, but HRS remains compatible with 700 bar vehicles HRS for captive fleets are easier to size as a high utilization rate can be achieved from the beginning Target dispensing capacity for captive fleets Average dispensing capacity (kg/day) 17

18 WITH H 2 RE-EVS, THE TCO 1 GAP VS. DIESEL COULD BE CLOSE TO 5K FOR CAPTIVE FLEETS Final gap: 5k Significant upside/externalities (2) Increased number of addressable duty cycles compared with battery electric vehicles Reduced accident rate for electric powertrains due to lower driver fatigue Increased vehicle availability due to rapid vehicle fuelling TCO of H 2 RE-EV Current bonus for zero emission vehicles Additional upside/ externalities Remain -ing TCO gap TCO of diesel Restrictions in urban access with diesel vehicles anticipated Increasing needs for clean vehicles The current Bonus-Malus vehicle incentive system helps to reduce the TCO gap in the early years (1) TCO: Total Cost of Ownership (2) Workshop with 10 French fleet operators held in Feb

19 VALLEY OF DEATH MUST BE OVERCOME TO REACH ECONOMIC VIABILITY Free cash flow of passenger car led HRS rollout Million EUR Capex Operating cashflow Losses in the early years are reduced by 75% with the captive fleet approach HRS investments after 2020 expected to be NPV positive TCO premium is ~EUR 15,000 per vehicle before incentives in first 5 years 17 HRS CAPEX 11M 338 HRS CAPEX 319M 247 HRS CAPEX 247M 19

20 H2 PRICE STRATEGY MAXIMIZES EARLY REVENUES AND ACHIEVES DIESEL PARITY AFTER 2020 Customer acceptable price Example of H 2 revenues at EUR 13/kg for first 5 years (captive fleets) Strong growth in FCEV passenger cars beyond 2020 Subsidies Taxes Continued fall in H 2 cost allows opportunity for fuel taxation while remaining competitive with diesel Revenues from H 2 sales, EUR/kg 20

21 CONCLUSION AND NEXT STEPS A REALISTIC PLAN FOR A FRENCH INFRASTRUCTURE ROLL-OUT IS POSSIBLE AND ALLOWS A QUICK START OF A PROFITABLE MARKET 21

22 GROWING CLUSTERS: THE STRUCTURE OF THE NETWORK THAT COULD PROVIDE NATIONWIDE COVERAGE BY 2030 The rollout of Hydrogen Refilling Stations and vehicles should be phased to reduce investment risks in the early years The early clusters do not preclude initiatives starting in other regions The clusters should be demand-led and other clusters could form in the short term The mapped rollout does however show a progressive linkage of cities. This minimizes the number of HRS on corridors in the early years, when low utilization level would make them more unprofitable than HRS placed in cluster. PRECISE HRS LOCATIONS TO BE DEFINED IN NEXT PROJET STEPS Area where HRS provide coverage Highway with HRS HRS in place as of 2014

23 THE NUMEROUS LOCAL HYDROGEN ACTIVITIES IN FRANCE CAN ACT AS UNDERLYING STARTING POINT X 5 X 1 X 1 Quadri X 10 Hydrogen vehicles in use (end 2014) on order /planned Hydrogen refilling stations X up to 10 X 1 X 2 X 50 X 2 X 20 X 1 demos (4) Planned 2014 Hydrogen sources From Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) By-product Planned Green H 2 : from photovoltaic, wind energy, or waste biogas 23

24 PUBLIC AUTHORITIES SUPPORT IS STILL NEEDED Explicit recognition of FCEVs as a solution for future decarbonised mobility In key public policies like the Energy Transition Law, national plans to reduce polluting emissions, low carbon strategy etc. Give a safe and stable regulatory framework To local authorities, solutions providers and customers Support significant demonstration projects Develop incentives to promote these solutions and build deployment volumes to allow a self-sustaining future 24

25 REGULATIONS ARE EVOLVING INTO AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK TO MINIMISE BARRIERS TO DEPLOYMENT Regulation Codes and Standards (RCS) authorities Strong involvement over the last few years (DREAL, Regions...) Lots of recent progress made in the H2 regulatory framework FCEVs Registration of vehicles allowed under the EC Whole Vehicle Type Approval(1) Fire authorities are already actively involved in the safety procedures Underground car parks, tunnels and building/car park insurance to be defined next H2 production and transport Harmonization of authorization of procedures across France Definition of new thresholds for hydrogen industrial production (ICPE 1415) No identified barriers relating to transport of Hydrogen HRS siting Regulations are needed by end 2014 for captive fleets and by mid 2016 for fully public passenger car refuelling stations (1) Regulations 79/2009 and 406/2010 applied through Arrêté of 22 mars 2011 (DEVR A) in France 25

26 STRATEGY UNTIL 2020 HRS + FCEV: NUMBER AND TYPE, PHASES EARLY CITIES AND FIRST CORRIDORS Core Customers identified First clusters should be deployed fleet Vans Tens of Trucks 15 to 20 HRS Bi-pressure dispensing close to borders 350bar for local fleets Mixture of on-site production and delivered H 2 depending on relative advantages at each site Levels of ambition among the regions will determine early locations And create trans-border corridors German corridor towards Dusseldorf Belgian corridor towards Brussels and Netherlands 26

27 PLAN POTENTIAL DEPLOYMENTS CITIES 5 HRS 80 kg/day (yellow dots) 1 dual pressure 4 x 350 bar 400 FCEVs 300 RE-EVs Vans 100 FCEVs Green dots: Existing or under construction HRS 27

28 FUNDING NEEDS (FIRST ESTIMATE) FCEV/U (k ) 100,0 60,0 40,0 25,0 H 2 RE-EV/U (k ) 50,0 30,0 23,0 19,0 HRS 35MPa (M ) 0,9 0,9 HRS Medium (M ) 1,2 1,2 0,8 0,6 HRS Large (M ) 0,9 0,7 Vehicles (units) Total CAPEX (M ) 6,5 9,0 4414, ,7 Funding need (M ) 1,7 2,0 0,0 0,0 HRS Deployments (units) Total CAPEX (M ) 4,9 11,5 319,0 246,9 Funding need (M ) 3,8 10,5 95,7 0,0 Total Fundings (M ) 5,4 12,5 95,7 0,0 Private partners HRS 1,

29 GROUPING THE EXISTING H2MOBILITY INITIATIVES CREATES THE START OF A EUROPEAN HYDROGEN NETWORK TEN-T Corridors 150 km 45 km 150 km 120 km 310 km 220 km 165 km 175 km 75 km 150 km 130 km 70 km 150 km 120 km 85 km 120 km 70 km 75 km 95 km 160 km 270 km 370 km 230 km 29

30 THANK YOU 30

31 Quality of life THE SOCIETAL COST SAVINGS BROUGHT BY FCEVS DISPLACING DIESEL ICE WILL AMOUNT TO C. EUR500MILLION OVER THE PERIOD CO 2 EMISSIONS A FCEV has no tailpipe emissions, and even accounting for WTW emissions, offer significant savings over a diesel ICE (c. - 50% in 2020, increasing to -75% by 2030). This translates into a saving of 1.2tCO 2 per year by vehicle in 2030, when the societal cost of CO 2 is evaluated at EUR105/tonne 1 AIR QUALITY Air pollutants (e.g. NOx, Particulate Matter, SO 2 ) affect people s health and life expectancy. Air quality targets are not met in 15 areas in France, leading to the risk of fines by the European Commission. The parc of FCEVs will avoid 1,300 tonnes of air pollutants by 2030, representing EUR98million annual societal cost savings NOISE Noise also impacts on health, leading to further benefits from FCEVs that are quieter than equivalent diesel vehicles Societal cost of noise 1, EUR/year, Diesel ICE 121 FCEV -59 Annual CO 2 emission savings (WTW), tco 2, ,6 Diesel ICE PM 0,4 FCEV ,600km p.a. H 2 production mix: WE (75%), by-product (20%), SMR (5%) Emissions of EURO 6 diesel ICE and corresponding cost High population NOX density SO2 kg per year 42 EUR, 2030 Low population density The societal cost of the CO 2 emissions, noise and pollutants of a ICE vehicle amounts to EUR510 per year vs. EUR160 for a FCEV in 2030 Accounting for discounting of savings, the cumulative benefits of the FCEV parc will be EUR140million per year in 2030 and c. EUR500million over Source: Element Energy 1 As per societal cost used by the CGDD, before applying a discounting factor 2 Discounting factor of 4%, as per CGDD approach, undiscounted annual savings = EUR260m, savings = EUR850m

32 CO 2 emissions CO 2 EMISSION SAVINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1.2MT P.A. IN 2030 AND 10MT P.A. IN 2050, HELPING FRANCE MEET ITS EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS FCEV parc, cars and vans, million % parc 17% % 4 2% Annual CO 2 emission savings, WTW, Mt 1% % current light vehicle emissions % 9% METHOD: FCEV sales projections as developed by the European Climate Foundation 1 are combined with annual sales assumptions to estimate the number of vehicles in circulation (parc size), taking a 15 year life assumption, in line with the CGDD approach. This results in a parc increasing from 0.8 million in 2030 to 7.3 million FCEVs by 2050 (17% of total light vehicles parc, broadly in line with the ANCRE decarbonisation through electricity scenario 2 ) Despite the limited parc share that FCEVs represent by 2030, their cumulative savings amount to 4Mt of CO 2 between The annual saving in 2030 (1.2Mt) is the equivalent of taking 780,000 diesel ICE vehicles off the road The annual savings will increase from 1.2Mt p.a. in 2030 to 10.4Mt p.a. in 2050, which represent 9% of current WTW emissions of light vehicles FCEVs will allow the decarbonisation of long distance vehicles that cannot transition to pure electric powertrain Source: Element Energy ANCRE: French National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination CGDD: General Committee of Sustainable development 1 - Fuelling Europe s future European Climate Foundation report, June This ANCRE scenario implies an FCEV share of 5% new passenger car registrations in 2030, rising to 20% in 2050

33 Energy security and impact on economy A TRANSITION TO HYDROGEN VEHICLES WILL IMPROVE THE TRANSPORT ENERGY TRADE BALANCE AND ENERGY SECURITY At the EU level, the evaluation of macro economic impacts of the transition to low emissions vehicles 1 shows it would have a positive impact on GDP. Net additional jobs have been evaluated at between 660,000 and 1.1 million by 2030, across all industry sectors At France level, the development of the FCEV market presents two opportunities for the transport energy balance trade and for employment: H 2 mobility will allow a move away from diesel (for which value is mostly created abroad) to H 2 production that relies mainly on electricity, an energy vector with a higher energy independence index than diesel 2. The production and sales of H 2 for vehicles in France would represent a value of over EUR700million p.a. by 2030 H 2 production share, % 100% Current 100% 100% 100% 2020 Hydrogen value chain Based on assumption that 88% of electricity value is created in France in 2030 (See Appendix B for details) 2025 The automotive industry is still a large employer in France (135,000 employees in manufacturing and over 200,000 for OEMs supply chain 3 ). The skilled workforce will present the opportunity of attracting the Value creation for manufacturing of high-tech FCEVs in France and thus 2030 in France from sustain/ provide further employment opportunities 700 H 2 sales million EUR 86% 2030 Water Electrolyser SMR By-product 14% France Abroad x c. 0.8 million FCEVs paying EUR1k p.a. in H 2 Source: Element Energy 1 Fuelling Europe s future ECF report, As electricity is mostly generated from renewables or based on nuclear for which the strategic storage is equivalent to 1 year of demand vs. 3 months of storage for diesel 3 CCFA