PV Solar Electricity Supplies for Africa and Asia: Profitable Business and Expectations from a PV Manufacturer

Transcription

1 PV Solar Electricity Supplies for Africa and Asia: Profitable Business and Expectations from a PV Manufacturer ARE Workshop Financing, Brussels, April 23, 2008 Dr. Martin Gorn, Director Export Sales Africa, Asia, Pacific, SCHOTT Solar GmbH Carl-Zeiss-Strasse Alzenau, Germany, martin.gorn@schott.com

2 CONTENTS: 1. SCHOTT Solar and High Industrial Quality PV Modules 2. Situations where Photovoltaic Solar Electricity is Profitable 2.1 PV-diesel Hybrid Systems 2.2 Large-size MWp Grid-supporting Plants 3. Highest Quality Standards and most severe Tests 4. Business Opportunities with PV in Africa, Middle East: Expectations and How to Overcome Current problems, The solution 5. (Conclusion): How to reach Win-win Situation for PV in Africa, Middle East 2

3 SCHOTT AG SCHOTT Solar GmbH SCHOTT Solar, Inc. Billerica (MA) USA Fully integrated production of wafers, cells and modules Alzenau, Headquarter Fully integrated production of wafers, cells and modules SCHOTT Solar Inc. Roseville (CA) USA System Integration Sales of modules and systems SCHOTT Solar CR Valasske Mezirici, CR Production of solar modules New! From 2007/08 on Putzbrunn Production of thin film modules Jena Production of thin film modules (from 2007 on) 3

4 SCHOTT Solar GmbH Employees: Ca. 1,000 Sales: 350 Mio EUR > 40 years experience in Solar Wide product portfolio: Crystalline solar cells Crystalline solar modules up to 300 W Roof-integrated solar power systems ASI -F solar modules up to 100 W ASI BIPV solar modules for facades and skylights ASI OEM consumer 4

5 IEC testing criteria not enough for SCHOTT Solar Example: Damp Heat Test 85 C; 85 % relative air humidity 2000 h (doubled IEC standard) Duration: ~ 15 weeks (including interim audits) Internal quality standard: powerdrop must be < 5 % Pmpp 2 IEC standard SCHOTT Solar standard in % Pmpp SCHOTT Solar 1 SCHOTT Solar 2 Competitor

6 In practice: Highest energy yield 1120 Spezifischer Jahresertrag [kwh/kwp] Average: 1045 kwh/kwp SCHOTT Solar Jap. Manuf. Europ. Manuf. Europ. Manuf. Europ. Manuf. Jap. Manuf. > 650 systems tested in Southern Germany (2003) Significantly higher average yield in practice 6

7 2 MW PV Plant Neustadt Weinstrasse 7

8 500 kwp PV power support of diesel-grid, incl. battery backup. With RWE Solutions and local subcontr EGAT Mae Hong Son (Thailand) pcs ASE- 300-DG-FT 2x 250kVA Sunny Central and 2x 200kVA Battery inverter Battery: 560V / 1200 Ah Connected to 6 MW diesel gen s Large-size PV: Turn-key 8

9 Economy and Competitiveness of Photovoltaic MWp Plants Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices Photovoltaics Utility peak power /kwh 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 900 h/a: 0,60 /kwh 1800 h/a: 0,30 /kwh Mae Hong Son 500 kwp after SERT Institute: /kwh! Bulk power Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH 0,

10 Projets récents: Ajouter du PV au Diesel pour station médicale Tanzania Kilimahewa (près de Dar es Salaam): Clinique Ordre St. Benedictine: 10 kva Diesel plus 4.8 kwp 330 Ah 120 Volt batterie Econom. 150 l fuel / mois! D autres projects: Ajouter au diesel un système PV+batterie+invertisseur Luagala (35 kva Diesel) => + 20 kwp PV (econom. 9,000 /an) Nanyamba (30 kva Diesel) => + 15 kwp PV (econom. 7,000 /an) Mananje (52,5 kva Diesel) => + 25 kwp PV (econom. 11,000 /an) Conclusion: Des milliers de systèmes diesel à équiper avec PV; épargne énorme de fuel. Investissement pour 20 ans absolument rentable: Prix du mazout dans des régions rurales: ca. 1 / litre). 10

11 Project Business in Asia: Electrification of 25 Villages with PV-diesel Hybrid Systems Train, build, test, transfer

12 2.2.4: Economic Dimensioning Procedure for PV- Diesel Hybrid Systems Advantage only-diesel systems for Remote Power Supply compared to PV: Low Investment Cost; 100% reliable, if properly maintained Disadvantages: ❶ Lifetime of Diesel Generator limited: e.g. 10,000 hours diesel lifetime few years only even if maintained ❷ Fuel price in remote rural areas (Africa, Asia) ca. 1 /liter. Conclusion: Most economic PV-diesel hybrid system: Combination between auxiliary and solar energy, the PV-diesel Hybrid System In sun-rich areas (Africa, Central Asia) a share of 10% for the diesel to the annual demand is often chosen (90% Solar) 12

13 Choice of PV-Generator Size for Hybrid System Photovoltaic-diesel Hybrid System: Example for dimensioning for whole-year total demand of 9 kwh per day Place Hyderabad: Solar Generator Orientation: 0 Solar Generator Inclination: 10 PV generator: 2700 Watt-peak Energy Consumption: 3208 kwh Diagram of Monthly Energy Supply (Continuos Supply: min. 9 kwh/day) Additional Supply: 347 kwh Solar Yield: 93.1 % 9 kwh/d Diesel PV 2 Performance Ratio: 63.6 % 0 Jan Mrz Mai Juli Sep. Nov Month

14 Electricity Cost Calculation : /kwh - Annuity, AN : Money paid each year in return for a lump-sum payment = investment (see economic text books) (i+1) N * i (i+1) N Annuity AN = Invest * { i = Interest Rate [%] N = time of use / lifetime - Cost [ /kwh] = Where AN total Invest [ /a] + Operation[ /a] + Maintain[ /a] Electricity demand produced [kwh/a] AN total Invest = AN PVGen + AN DieselGen + AN Batt + AN BOS + AN Plan & Install 14

15 : Electricity Cost Calculation : /kwh con t (2): Lifetimes Investment annuity payback years N: Lifetime of component or time of use PV Modules 20 years Diesel Generator Lifetime: Depends on PV size Batteries 7 years Energy Managm., BOS 10 y for inverters, 20 y other Plan & Install 20 years Diesel Generator (e.g. 4.2 kva, 3,000 rpm): New investment after 4,000 hours of operation! Examples for different lifetimes: PV size 0 kwp (pure diesel) 1.2 kwp 1.5 kwp 2.1 kwp 2.7 kwp Run time diesel / a 900 h 650 h 511 h 240 h 30 h Theor. Diesel gen. life times 4 years 6 years 8 years 20 years 20 years, if maintained 15

16 Example: /kwh Calculation (annuity method) PV versus Diesel Sun-rich area (Sudan), 4.2 kva Diesel, 6% interest rate, [Ref.: K. Bienert FH Leipzig] Power Demand produced: 10.4 kwh/day; Fuel for pure diesel system without PV : liter/year => Fuel price 1 /liter! /kwh cost mininum at PV = kwp (fuel consumption down to 150 or 40 liter / year) ==> System with No PV 16

17 Business Opportunities with PV Solar Electricity: PV-Diesel combinations, Hybrid Systems (size kwp): - Productive use in regions without grid: Workshops, agricultural, food processing, cooling, water pumping, irrigation, water treatment - villages, hospitals, schools, administration - Even when grid (unstable) => BACK-UP MegaWatt-peak Solar PV Plants: - Fuel and Cost Saving, get more Independent from Fuel Import - PV competitive with conventional peak power in production costs / kwh - Create local activities by adding locally produced BIO-FUEL (e.g. Jatropha) - Reduce CO 2 emissions and other environmental impacts or drawbacks. 17

18 Main issue in PV/Renewable versus Conventional : The TARIFF Worldwide, electricity sold at extremely low prices (0.3 - few Cent/kWh, only!) At the same time, utilities are fighting with huge FINANCIAL LOSSES and - Fuel shortage + price increase (in rural areas even 1 / liter) - Frequent grid breakdown (political reasons, fuel theft daily) - Causing slow economic development, blocking investments and industrial production. Electricity TARIFFS are: Heavily SUBSIDIZED NOT TRANSPARENT - Egypt to spend 400 Mio per y. to support low electrcity price - Indonesia to subsidize car fuel prize (more than it obtains) - Senegal: 200 Mio, Jordan 50 Mio : - Lebanon 1 Bio subsidies for diesel based electricity production Subsidy: Not immoral > people consume (afford cooling comfort) BLOCKING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT and PROMOTES ENERGY INEFFICIENCY 18

19 Lucky: Introducing Solar PV can TURN the BAD POINTS into the POSITIVE! Use the SUBSIDIES for RECONSTRUCTION of the electricity supply structure - Tariff for On-GRID and Off-GRID! (why only subsidize on-grid?) - Build Solar PV-diesel Plants to improve supply security and dependence situation - Base Financing on 20 years Runtime, minimum (like conventional power) - Promote Local Business and Infrastructure: PV Solar System Installing Companies Separate Tariffs into PEAK POWER Tariff and Bulk Power Tariff - Time-of-use Tariff for off-grid and on-grid - Environmental Tariff (example RWE Germany, California: Cents per kwh) - Type-of Customer Tariff - Do not subsidize energy wasters, water heating, desalination by mineral oil - Rather subsidize new businesses and entrepreneurs with special tariffs Enforce ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT - making Tariffs MORE TRANSPARENT - secure CONSTANT ELECTRICITY SUPPLY for manufacturers => attract investors - open up opportunities for new businesses in developing, rural and remote regions 19

20 Business in PV Solar: Requirements for a Win-Win Situation Mid-size or large PV-Diesel combinations (clusters) for groups of villages. Size your projects 2 MWp minimum installed per year (long range) => ECONOMY OF SCALE and further COST REDUCTION Speak about Soft-loan FINANCING with Banks: DEG (private), KfW (public, EEEE ) Take PV Suppliers who guarantee sustainable MWp PV module supply for next 6 11 years (and who have secured semiconductor Si material purchase for themselves) Take components and systems design such that very long lifetimes result Cooperate with suppliers who can train your installation teams also for monitoring, maintenance, and operation Take QUALITY and Good SERVICE: We can provide and render it WIN-WIN THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 20