Wirtschaftliche Herausforderungen bei der Direktvermarktung von Solar Strom

Transcription

1 Wirtschaftliche Herausforderungen bei der Direktvermarktung von Solar Strom Dietmar Obst, 8.2 Fred Hustig, Suntrace 22.Oktober 2013 Solar Power Advisory 1

2 Contents 1. Characteristics of industrial off-takers 2. Business cases with industrial off-takers 3. Solar power plant concepts 4. Project structure and key stakeholders 5. PV hybrid business case 6. Benefits & challenges Solar Power Advisory 2

3 Industrial off-takers need tailor-made technical concepts in combination with commercial feasible economics Characteristics of industrial off-takers Demand matching energy supply (tailor made technical concepts) High energy security (constant production) Competitive price Predictable development of energy costs in future hedge against future tariff increase Many industries require a 24/7 energy availability Electricity and/or process heat demand Solar Power Advisory 3

4 Within the commercial power markets, the industry sector provides spearhead opportunities for solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) Business cases with industrial off-takers 1. New production plants tailor made energy concepts electricity and/or heat supply 2. Remote / off-grid location captive demand matching energy supply 3. Unreliable / expensive grid autoproduction can provide stable energy supply 4. Process heat driven plant (CHP) electricity as by product Solar Power Advisory 4

5 Solar Power Plant Concepts Energy storage and hybrid elements can provide firm and dispatchable power Independent Power Supply Fossil Fuel Saver Solar Thermal Power Storage Biomass Solar Thermal Power Storage Photovoltaic Storage Diesel Photovoltaic Diesel Fossil fuel (e.g. Diesel, LNG, etc.) 25% 50% 75% 8760h,24/7 Solar Only Solar with Storage Solar Hybrid solar share 20-30% day peak shaving daily fluctuations in solar resource seasonal changes (summer/winter) solar share up to 80% storage to bridge cloudy days seasonal changes (winter gap) solar share 20-80% + fossil back up firm and dispatchable power for 24/7 independent power supply Solar Power Advisory 5

6 The overall project structure should incline towards schemes used for project financing. In project finance the creditworthiness depends on project agreements. Solar Power Advisory 6

7 PV as fuel saver can reduce Diesel consumption by 22% Case Study: PV-Hybrid 20 MW AC capacity for 24/7 High solar irradiance (GHI) of 2170 kwh/m 2 /a Location: South Africa, Northern Cape Fixed mounting system Central inverter units Diesel generator Electricity output 175 GWh solar portion of 39 GWh (22%) fossil portion of 136 GWh (78%) SOL AR I re I d Batteries I bat Charge Regulator Battery Charger I ch_dc I ch_ac VAC VDC I nverter I inv_dc I inv_ac I AC Source: SMA A.C. LOAD DI ESEL GENERAT OR current flow diagram of a PV hybrid plant with photovoltaic, diesel and battery unit Fig. 1. PV-Diesel AC-only system. Solar Power Advisory 7

8 Economic feasibility of a PV Hybrid plant with a 20 year PPA shows significant cost reduction of 4.4 Mio USD in the first year. First Year Electricity Price (2013): Diesel: 260 USD/MWh e PV: 145 USD/MWh e WEC 1 : 235 USD/MWh e First year electricity cost reduction: 4.4 Mio. USD PV as Fuel Saver Solar costs are significantly below Diesel generated costs PPA Tariff in USD/kWh 20 MW PV Diesel Hybrid - 20 year PPA 1.2 Diesel tariff Solar PV tariff 1.0 Weighted Energy Costs Year PV tariff with CPI indexation 1) Weighted Energy Cost 2) (Source: US Energy Information System, EIA, New York Harbor No. 2 Heating Oil Future) Diesel tariff increase of 7.2% p.a. assumed Solar Power Advisory 8

9 Even a 8 year PPA can reduce the electricity costs in the first year by 2.46 Mio USD. First Year Electricity Price (2013): MW PV Diesel Hybrid - 8 year PPA Diesel tariff Solar PV tariff Weighted Energy Costs Diesel: 260 USD/MWh e PV: 198 USD/MWh e WEC 1 : 246 USD/MWh e First year electricity cost reduction: 2.46 Mio. USD PV as Fuel Saver Solar costs are significantly below Diesel generated costs PPA Tariff in USD/kWh Year PV tariff with CPI indexation 1) Weighted Energy Cost 2) (Source: US Energy Information System, EIA, New York Harbor No. 2 Heating Oil Future) Diesel tariff increase of 7.2% p.a. assumed Solar Power Advisory 9

10 Global market attractiveness of PV hybrid solutions Benefits Strong business case as fuel saver with solar-storage-fossil hybrid natural hedge for FX risk (exporters/mines) transparent offtaker risk direct PPA negotiations at an early stage good leverage potential via affiliated and mother companies national and international repeatability attractive risk profile for mining and clean energy sector investors Challenges high priority secure power supply, 24/7 conservative client attitude: few showcases decisions: technical/operations vs. financial off-taker lifetime PPA lifetime remote sites, difficult access, dust emissions, changing exploitation financing tenors significantly shorter than years: corporate risk for banks political & regulatory environments Solar Power Advisory 10

11 Most African countries have substantial unelectrified areas. Combined with high Diesel cost, a first prioritization for preferred target markets for hybrids can be made. Solar Power Advisory 11

12 Contact Details Fred Hustig E. M: Dietmar Obst E. dietmar.obst@8p2.de M: Suntrace GmbH Brandstwiete Hamburg Germany T: F: HRB Hamburg Ingenieurpartnerschaft Obst & Ziehmann Brandstwiete Hamburg Germany T: F: Registerblatt PR 468 Amtsgericht Hamburg Solar Power Advisory 12