Simple project evaluation spreadsheet model

Transcription

1 Simple project evaluation spreadsheet model Africa Electricity Institute Practitioner Workshop 15 November Dakar, Senegal Chris Greacen

2 Two very different models Used by: Excel financial model Financers (also project developers, regulators, researchers) HOMER Engineers (also project developers, regulators, researchers) What it does: Models cashflow and return on investment Optimizes component selection to minimize levelized cost of energy (LCOE) in hybrid minigrids

3 Simple project viability evaluation model Inputs Outputs Project Inputs Revenues Tsh /kwh US c/kwh Project Returns Plant Capacity 500 KW Tanesco 87% Project IRR 21.1% Capacity Factor 68% Business 11% Equity IRR 38.4% Annual Generation 2,978 Mwh Households & Inst. 3% Project NPV $1,436 # Connections 882 Average Tariff Equity NPV $501 Carbon Revenues Generation Costs USD 000s TSH Mn Operating Costs USD 000s TSH Mn US c /kwh Cost recovery Tariff Generation 1,484 2,226 47% Salaries 30 $ Capital Investments 6.28 $ / W Soft Costs 670 1,005 21% Maintenance 31 $ Operating Costs 2.1 c/ kwh Grid Connection % Fuel Costs 0 $ Output Per Watt 5.96 Kwh / W Grid Extension % Other 0 $ Capital Recovery c/ kwh Total Investment 3,139 4,709 Total Total 17.4 c/ kwh REA Grants 441 $ TSH / kwh Investment (excl. grants) $2,698 $4,047 Other Inputs Capital Structure USD 000s TSH Mn Schedule Construction Time 1.5 Years Equity Share 30% Equity Construction 67% 33% 0% 0% Collection Efficiency 90% Required returns 15% REA grant Operations 0% 67% 100% 100% Distribution losses 5% Loan Rate 15% Loan 2,197 3,296 Tariff inflation 2.0% Loan Grace Period 3 Other Assumptions CPI 6.0% Loan Term 15 Depreciation period 20 Years Terminal value 0.0 times exit FCF WACC*** 11.9% Corporate Tax rate 30% Exchange Rate 1,500 TSH / USD Tax holiday 0 Years Cash Flow $ '000s Investment $2,093 $1,046 $0 $0 $0 Increase in WC $0 $31 $0 $0 $0 Equity $628 $314 $0 $0 $0 Debt $1,465 $732 $0 $0 $0 Residual Value* Revenue (c/ kwh) Total Revenues $0 $492 $753 $768 $783 $798 $813 $829 $846 $862 $879 $896 $914 $932 $950 Operating Costs $0 $43 $69 $73 $78 $82 $87 $92 $98 $104 $110 $117 $124 $131 $139 Operating Cash flow ($2,093) ($597) $684 $694 $705 $716 $726 $737 $748 $758 $769 $780 $790 $801 $811 Depreciation $0 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 $157 Loan Payments $0 $0 $0 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $513 $0 Interest $0 $220 $363 $417 $403 $386 $367 $345 $320 $291 $258 $220 $176 $125 $67 $0 Principal $0 ($220) ($363) $96 $110 $127 $146 $168 $193 $222 $255 $293 $337 $388 $446 $0 Loan Balance $1,465 $2,417 $2,780 $2,684 $2,574 $2,447 $2,301 $2,133 $1,941 $1,719 $1,464 $1,171 $834 $446 $0 $0 Effective tax $0 $0 $49 $36 $44 $52 $61 $70 $81 $93 $106 $121 $137 $156 $176 $0 Equity CF 38% ($628) $135 $635 $146 $149 $151 $153 $154 $154 $153 $150 $146 $140 $132 $122 $0 DSCR * PV at year 15 for revenues from year *** WACC = Equity share * ROE + Debt Share * Loan rate * (1- tax rate)

4 Questions answered by Simple project viability evaluation model How does the financial viability of an off-grid or ongrid SPP project vary under diffent assumptions of tariffs, subsidies, and carbon revenues, exchange rates, etc.? Internal Rate of Return (IRR)? Project IRR Equity IRR Net Present Value (NPV) Project NPV Equity NPV Does cash flow meet debt service requirements?

5 Model inputs Input basic project data (yellow cells) Plant Capacity: generation capacity of power plant in kw Capacity factor: ratio of actual output to potential annual output if it operated at nameplate capacity fulltime. # Connections: is applicable to systems that sell electricity to retail customers and receive REA grants of $500 per hookup Investment costs: costs to build project (generator, grid connection, grid extension, etc.) Operating costs: costs to keep project going (salaries, mainteannce, fuel)

6 Model inputs (continued) Input basic project data (yellow cells) Construction time: Collection efficiency: portion of tariff that can actually be collected from users. CPI = consumer price index Terminal value = value of equipment at end of 15 years Exchange Rate: value of currency in USD Capital structure (% and rates): equity, loan, etc. Depreciation period: Number of years before asset has zero value Tax holiday: tax holiday is a temporary elimination of a tax as an incentive for businesses to invest.

7 Model outputs Operating cash flow: cash generated from sales, minus cash paid out to cover operations costs Depreciation: A reduction in the value of power plant with the passage of time, due in particular to wear and tear Loan payments: installments paid by the SPP to the lender Loan balance: the amount owed, including principal and interest; Effective Tax: Tax paid divided by taxable income Equity cash flow: Cash flow left over after depreciation, loan payments, and taxes Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DCSR): the amount of debt that can be supported by the cash flow generated from the project.

8 Model outputs (continued) Input basic project data (yellow cells) WAAC: Weighted average cost of capital. # Connections: is applicable to systems that sell electricity to retail customers and receive REA grants of $500 per hookup Collection efficiency: portion of tariff that can actually be collected from users. CPI = consumer price index Terminal value = value of equipment at end of 15 years

9 Thank you For more information, please contact chrisgreacen (at) gmail.com Excel file used here available at:

10 Using HOMER to evaluate the levelized costs of different mini-grid generation options Africa Electricity Institute Practitioner Workshop 15 November Dakar, Senegal Chris Greacen

11 HOMER: Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables Developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of US Department of Energy (DOE). Download free:

12 Rural Electrification: Classics Historically, the primary means of providing power have been through grid extension and diesel generators. Grid Extension: Very high initial cost, poor cost recovery, time intensive (generation, transmission, distribution) and usually must be subsidized. Most often used. Diesel Generators: Inexpensive installation but expensive to operate, environmental damage/pollution, and subject to volatile fuel costs and availability.

13 Hybrid Systems - Another option A hybrid energy system consists of two or more renewable energy sources used together to provide increased system efficiency as well as greater balance in energy supply. Higher Reliability (?) Hybrids reduce daily & seasonal resource variations but more complex more parts to break. Lower Cost of Energy Hybrids reduce daily & seasonal resource variations Minimizes battery size and fuel usage Existing Diesel & Distribution System Investment

14 Questions HOMER answers How much of which technologies to use? diesel, solar, wind, biomass, hydro Fuel consumption, runtime, project economics? How do these answers depend on assumptions? Fuel price, interest rates, equipment costs, utility tariffs Electric and thermal load shapes, reliability requirements and load management Resource quality and availability Sensitivities variations in prices, resource availabilty

15 Illustrating HOMER using Koh Po, Thailand Households: 150 location: Krabi, Southern, Thailand coordinates: 7 32' 0" North, 99 8' 0" East

16 How to model with HOMER

17 How to model with HOMER

18 Load Load 8760 hours

19 Resources: Solar

20 Resources: Wind

21 Diesel inputs

22 PV: inputs

23 Generator: inputs

24 Converter (inverter): inputs

25 Battery: inputs

26 Results

27 Search space

28 Results

29 Thank you For more information, please contact Chrisgreacen (at) gmail.com HOMER file used here available at: