THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015

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1 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5

2 The role of monetary policy in economic restructuring Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation.5% Stable developments in output and employment Monetary policy seeks to be robust

3 Decline in some emerging economies Projected GDP growth 5. Percent Russia Brazil India Indonesia Source: Consensus Economics

4 Slowing growth in China GDP for China. Four-quarter growth. Percent Growth target GDP Electricity production in China. Twelve-month growth. Percent Sources: Thomson Reuters and CEIC

5 Stronger growth in US and northern Europe GDP growth. Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 US UK Sweden Euro area Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5

6 Low inflation... Twelve-month change. Percent 6 US Euro area Sweden UK 5-5 Sources: Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 5-6

7 .and low interest rates Yields on ten-year government bonds. Percent January 8 May Germany Spain UK US 5 Source: Bloomberg

8 Negative yields in Europe Two-year government bonds. Percent. August 8 May Finland Germany -.5 Netherlands France - Sweden Denmark - Switzerland -.5 Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-5 Apr-5 Source: Bloomberg -.5 8

9 Weaker euro January 8 May USD per EUR Source: Thomson Reuters 9

10 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. January 8 May Source: Thomson Reuters

11 Why has the oil price fallen? US crude oil production. In millions of barrels per day 8 6 Conventional crude oil Shale oil Sources: EIA and Norges Bank

12 Petroleum investment Volume. Annual growth. Percent MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

13 Field development Constant 5 prices. In billions of NOK. 9-8 ) Projects launched before 5 Other new development projects Johan Sverdrup (Phases and ) Maria,Vette and Zidane 75 Snorre and Johan Castberg Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate and Norges Bank

14 Exchange rate (I-) and oil price January 8 May I- (left-hand scale)¹ Oil price (right-hand scale) ) A positive slope denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters

15 Labour costs relative to trading partners Hourly labour costs. Index. 995 = ) Common currency Domestic currency ) Projections for 5 are based on projections for exchange rate and wage growth in MPR /5. Sources: TBU (Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements), Statistics 9 5

16 Regional network Regional network in January Output growth. Annualised Past three months Expectations in January (growth next six months) 5 Source: Norges Bank Phone survey in April Output growth broadly in line with expectations Outlook adjusted down somewhat particularly as a result of weaker prospects for oil service industry 6

17 Unemployment rate. LFS and NAV. Percent. Seasonally adjusted. January 6 April LFS NAV Average LFS since Average NAV since Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Norges Bank 7

18 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold.5 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

19 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold.5 Telemark 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

20 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

21 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder Vest-Agder 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

22 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder Vest-Agder Rogaland 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

23 House prices Twelve-month change. Percent. January April Norway Oslo -5 Vestfold Telemark Stavanger Kristiansand - 5 Sources: Eiendom Norge, FINN and Eiendomsverdi

24 Household debt ratio and interest burden Percent ) Interest burden (left-hand scale) Household debt ratio (right-hand scale) ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

25 Index of household consumption of goods Seasonally adjusted volume index. January March Source: Statistics Norway 5

26 CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Percent - CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods - Domestically produced goods and services - Projections MPR /5 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

27 The Executive Board's monetary policy decision «Following an overall assessment of new information and the risk outlook, the Executive Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at this meeting. Key policy rate in MPR /5 and MPR / At the same time, there are still prospects that the key policy rate will be lowered in June.» PPR /5 PPR / 6 7

28 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5

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