THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015"

Transcription

1 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5

2 The role of monetary policy in economic restructuring Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation.5% Stable developments in output and employment Monetary policy seeks to be robust

3 Decline in some emerging economies Projected GDP growth 5. Percent Russia Brazil India Indonesia Source: Consensus Economics

4 Slowing growth in China GDP for China. Four-quarter growth. Percent Growth target GDP Electricity production in China. Twelve-month growth. Percent Sources: Thomson Reuters and CEIC

5 Stronger growth in US and northern Europe GDP growth. Seasonally adjusted volume index. 8 US UK Sweden Euro area Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5

6 Low inflation... Twelve-month change. Percent 6 US Euro area Sweden UK 5-5 Sources: Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics 6 5-6

7 .and low interest rates Yields on ten-year government bonds. Percent January 8 May Germany Spain UK US 5 Source: Bloomberg

8 Negative yields in Europe Two-year government bonds. Percent. August 8 May Finland Germany -.5 Netherlands France - Sweden Denmark - Switzerland -.5 Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb-5 Apr-5 Source: Bloomberg -.5 8

9 Weaker euro January 8 May USD per EUR Source: Thomson Reuters 9

10 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. January 8 May Source: Thomson Reuters

11 Why has the oil price fallen? US crude oil production. In millions of barrels per day 8 6 Conventional crude oil Shale oil Sources: EIA and Norges Bank

12 Petroleum investment Volume. Annual growth. Percent MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

13 Field development Constant 5 prices. In billions of NOK. 9-8 ) Projects launched before 5 Other new development projects Johan Sverdrup (Phases and ) Maria,Vette and Zidane 75 Snorre and Johan Castberg Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate and Norges Bank

14 Exchange rate (I-) and oil price January 8 May I- (left-hand scale)¹ Oil price (right-hand scale) ) A positive slope denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters

15 Labour costs relative to trading partners Hourly labour costs. Index. 995 = ) Common currency Domestic currency ) Projections for 5 are based on projections for exchange rate and wage growth in MPR /5. Sources: TBU (Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements), Statistics 9 5

16 Regional network Regional network in January Output growth. Annualised Past three months Expectations in January (growth next six months) 5 Source: Norges Bank Phone survey in April Output growth broadly in line with expectations Outlook adjusted down somewhat particularly as a result of weaker prospects for oil service industry 6

17 Unemployment rate. LFS and NAV. Percent. Seasonally adjusted. January 6 April LFS NAV Average LFS since Average NAV since Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Norges Bank 7

18 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold.5 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

19 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold.5 Telemark 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

20 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

21 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder Vest-Agder 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

22 Unemployment January 8 April 5. Percent. Seasonally adjusted Vestfold Telemark Aust-Agder Vest-Agder Rogaland 8 Source: NAV and Norges Bank

23 House prices Twelve-month change. Percent. January April Norway Oslo -5 Vestfold Telemark Stavanger Kristiansand - 5 Sources: Eiendom Norge, FINN and Eiendomsverdi

24 Household debt ratio and interest burden Percent ) Interest burden (left-hand scale) Household debt ratio (right-hand scale) ) Projections for Q 8 Q (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

25 Index of household consumption of goods Seasonally adjusted volume index. January March Source: Statistics Norway 5

26 CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Percent - CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods - Domestically produced goods and services - Projections MPR /5 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

27 The Executive Board's monetary policy decision «Following an overall assessment of new information and the risk outlook, the Executive Board decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at this meeting. Key policy rate in MPR /5 and MPR / At the same time, there are still prospects that the key policy rate will be lowered in June.» PPR /5 PPR / 6 7

28 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, 3 OCTOBER 2014

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, 3 OCTOBER 2014 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, OCTOBER Norges Bank is the central bank of Norway «It devolves upon the Storting to supervise the monetary affairs of the Realm» The Constitution

More information

OIL AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN NTNU, 29 SEPTEMBER 2015

OIL AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN NTNU, 29 SEPTEMBER 2015 OIL AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN NTNU, 9 SEPTEMBER 15 GDP per capita relative to OECD Index. OECD = 1. Purchasing power adjusted 15 Norway Mainland Norway 15 1 1 5 197 1975 198 1985

More information

The economic outlook and monetary policy

The economic outlook and monetary policy The economic outlook and monetary policy Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-Bank, Stavanger March 5 Interest rates and inflation Per cent Market rate Real interest rate Neutral real interest rate Inflation SR-Bank

More information

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011 The economic outlook for Norway Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China Sources: IMF and Norges Bank GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China

More information

Business cycles, monetary policy and property markets Governor Svein Gjedrem Næringseiendom 2005 26 April 2005

Business cycles, monetary policy and property markets Governor Svein Gjedrem Næringseiendom 2005 26 April 2005 Business cycles, monetary policy and property markets Governor Svein Gjedrem Næringseiendom 5 April 5 Projected consumer price inflation 5-year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent Employers organisations Employees

More information

Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 19 March 2004

Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 19 March 2004 Monetary policy and the economic outlook Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-banken, Stavanger 9 March SG SR-banken Stavanger, 9 March Monetary policy regulation. Monetary policy shall be aimed at stability in the

More information

Chart 1.1 GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Export weights. 2010 Q1 2019 Q4 1) 4.5

Chart 1.1 GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Export weights. 2010 Q1 2019 Q4 1) 4.5 Chart. GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Export weights. Q 9 Q )... Projection MPR /6 Projection MPR /...... 6 7 8 9. ) Projection for Q 9 Q (broken lines). Sources: Thomson

More information

Monetary policy, inflation and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Monetary policy, inflation and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Monetary policy, inflation and the outlook for the Norwegian economy DnB, Haugesund Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank, April Effective exchange rates January 99= GBP NOK 9 8 NZD 9 8 7 SEK 7 99 99

More information

Chart 1.1 GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. 2000 Q1 2015 Q2 15

Chart 1.1 GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. 2000 Q1 2015 Q2 15 Chart. GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Q Q Advanced economies Emerging economies 6 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Chart. Euro area. Consumer confidence and expectations

More information

september Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment

september Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment september Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment Norges Bank Oslo Address: Bankplassen Postal address: Postboks 79 Sentrum, 7 Oslo Phone: +7 Fax: +7 E-mail: central.bank@norges-bank.no

More information

Strategy Document 1/03

Strategy Document 1/03 Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges

More information

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international

More information

Outlook for the Norwegian business sector and the role of Norges Bank

Outlook for the Norwegian business sector and the role of Norges Bank Outlook for the Norwegian business sector and the role of Norges Bank Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem Kongsvinger, March Effective exchange rates 199=1 1 1 11 NOK 11 1 GBP 1 9 8 NZD 9 8 7 SEK 7 199

More information

Consumer prices and the money supply

Consumer prices and the money supply Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen.

More information

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank Stavanger, Stavanger, 26 March 2010. The text below

More information

The Norwegian economy

The Norwegian economy The Norwegian economy Slower speed ahead, but still growth Strong mechanisms support mainland economy Wriggle room to smooth business cycles Rune Bjerke CEO Just how bad is it? Slower speed ahead but still

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent

Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent The outlook for the Norwegian economy and the business sector in southwestern Norway Governor Svein Gjedrem Vats, October Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent 99 99 99 99 99 Sources: Statistics

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,

More information

The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen

The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen The outlook for the Norwegian economy with particular focus on the business sector in Vesterålen Governor Svein Gjedrem Sortland, October Mainland GDP in Norway Annual growth. Per cent 99 99 99 99 99 Sources:

More information

Chapter 2 Financial markets

Chapter 2 Financial markets Chapter Financial markets Hovedstyret desember,,,,,.a Exchange rates against USD Daily figures,,,,, JPY per USD (left-hand scale),, USD per euro (right-hand scale), jan jul jan jul jan jul, Source: EcoWin

More information

Introduction on monetary policy

Introduction on monetary policy Introduction on monetary policy Riksdag Committee on Finance 6 March Governor Stefan Ingves Today's presentation The Swedish economy and monetary policy - where are we heading? The Swedish economy has

More information

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and cyclical developments

Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and cyclical developments Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and cyclical developments Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebanken Sogn og Fjordane, Førde, 18 October 2004. The text

More information

Financial Stability 2/12. Charts

Financial Stability 2/12. Charts Financial Stability /1 Charts Chart 1.1 Vulnerabilities in the Norwegian banking sector and external sources of risk to the banking sector 1) Vulnerability in banking sector External sources of risk to

More information

Oil and Natural Gas Analysis at Norges Bank. Pål Winje ( International Department), workshop on modeling and forecasting oil prices, 22 March 2012

Oil and Natural Gas Analysis at Norges Bank. Pål Winje ( International Department), workshop on modeling and forecasting oil prices, 22 March 2012 Oil and Natural Gas Analysis at Norges Bank Pål Winje ( International Department), workshop on modeling and forecasting oil prices, 22 March 212 The Norwegian Petroleum Sector as a Share of Macroeconomic

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 1/11 January 1 January 11 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 3/11 17 March 11 Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy is produced jointly by the

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy /1 13 April 1 13 April 1 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

More information

Value Added and Ripple Effects of National Oilwell Varco Norway

Value Added and Ripple Effects of National Oilwell Varco Norway REPORT Value Added and Ripple Effects of National Oilwell Varco Norway MENON REPORT 34/2013 By Sveinung Fjose, Rasmus Bøgh Holmen and Magne Utne Gulbrandsen Innhold 1. Main Findings... 2 2. Values Created

More information

Money market portfolio

Money market portfolio 1 Money market portfolio April 11 Management of Norges Bank s money market portfolio Report for the fourth quarter 1 Contents 1 Key figures Market value and return 3 3 Market risk and management guidelines

More information

Chapter 3 Demand and production

Chapter 3 Demand and production Chapter 3 Demand and production 3.1 Goods consumption index 1995=1. Seasonally adjusted volume 4 2 22 4 2 21 118 2 118 11 11 114 114 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Statistics

More information

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update April. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update April. Copyright Eiendomsverdi EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update April Executive summary The housing market in Norway in April grew 1.4 percent, reaching a new all-time high level on a nominal basis Seasonally adjusted the market

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Suomen Pankki The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Euro & talous, 9 June 2016 1 Euro area economic growth is broadly based, but inflation still slow.

More information

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012

Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012 Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

No boom, (probably) no bust

No boom, (probably) no bust No boom, (probably) no bust Global Economic & Market Outlook Riga May 10, 2016 Harald Magnus Andreassen +47 23 23 82 60 hma@swedbank.no The global economy: Growth is normal 3 OK, growth in rich countries

More information

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016

Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy Credit Suisse, 2016 Macro Conference April 19, 2016 Credit Suisse, Macro Conference April 19, Outline 1 Inflation and Monetary Policy 2 Recent Developments and Outlook for the Mexican Economy 3 Final Remarks 2 In line with its constitutional mandate, the

More information

Svein Gjedrem: Monetary policy and the economic outlook

Svein Gjedrem: Monetary policy and the economic outlook Svein Gjedrem: Monetary policy and the economic outlook Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at SR-banken, Stavanger, 19 March 2004. The text below may differ slightly

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Growth of Australia s major trading partners is expected to be around its long-run average in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for 015 have been revised

More information

How To Know How The Falling Oil Price Affects The Global Economy And Inflation

How To Know How The Falling Oil Price Affects The Global Economy And Inflation Effects of the falling oil price on the global economy MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 2015 45 Prices on the world market for oil have fallen rapidly since the summer of 2014. Measured in US dollars, the

More information

On the external balance and payment systems

On the external balance and payment systems On the external balance and payment systems Erkki Liikanen Governor 10.5.2012 Julkinen 1 Current account deficit, a new, old problem? Julkinen 2 Finnish current account into deficit in 2011 10 % of GDP

More information

Domestic Activity. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2013/14 average = 100

Domestic Activity. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2013/14 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook 6 The International Economy The outlook for GDP growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is unchanged from the November Statement. Over the next few years, growth is expected

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

The National Budget 2015

The National Budget 2015 The National Budget 215 214-215 The National Budget 215 1 Contents: page 1. Introduction... 2 2. The Norwegian economy... 3 3. Economic policy... 8 3.1 Fiscal policy... 8 3.2 Tax policy... 17 3.3 Monetary

More information

Summary. CB Richard Ellis - Oslo. Local Real Estate World Wide. Prime yield hits sub 6.00% The rental market appears positive

Summary. CB Richard Ellis - Oslo. Local Real Estate World Wide. Prime yield hits sub 6.00% The rental market appears positive CB RICHARD ELLIS Market View Oslo Office Market Development Prime Yield Prime Rent Hot Topics 10 Changes from Prime office yield decreased to 5.75% 09 Summary Prime yield hits sub 6.00% Prime office yield

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Skøyen 15 September 2015 Rolf Albriktsen Kristoffer Eide Hoen

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Skøyen 15 September 2015 Rolf Albriktsen Kristoffer Eide Hoen ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Skøyen 15 September 2015 Rolf Albriktsen Kristoffer Eide Hoen Norway: Slower growth ahead Moderate forecasts for building construction, high activity in civil engineering Increasing regional

More information

NEWS FROM DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

NEWS FROM DANMARKS NATIONALBANK 1ST QUARTER 2015 N0 1 NEWS FROM DANMARKS NATIONALBANK PROSPECT OF HIGHER GROWTH IN DENMARK Danmarks Nationalbank adjusts its forecast of growth in the Danish economy this year and next year upwards. GDP

More information

The economic situation and monetary policy

The economic situation and monetary policy The economic situation and monetary policy Statistics Sweden 6 October 14 Deputy Governor Per Jansson Topics I will discuss today Recent monetary policy (including the most recent decision on 3 September)

More information

Economic Outlook of Finland

Economic Outlook of Finland Economic Outlook of Finland Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor 9 June 2011 1 2 Heading for stable monetary conditions 1865 1999 MARKKA joins silver standard EURO taken into use 3 Two roles of the Bank

More information

Svein Gjedrem: The economic situation in Norway

Svein Gjedrem: The economic situation in Norway Svein Gjedrem: The economic situation in Norway Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Norges Bank, 21 March 2002. Please

More information

Adverse macro-financial scenario for the EBA 2016 EU-wide bank stress testing exercise

Adverse macro-financial scenario for the EBA 2016 EU-wide bank stress testing exercise 29 January 2016 Adverse macro-financial scenario for the EBA 2016 EU-wide bank stress testing exercise The European Banking Authority (EBA) 2016 EU-wide stress testing exercise will require banks to use

More information

Chapter 2 Financial markets

Chapter 2 Financial markets Chapter Financial markets Executive Board May....a Exchange rates against USD Daily figures.... JPY per USD (left-hand scale) USD per euro (right-hand scale).. Executive Board May. Source: EcoWin .b Nominal

More information

NEWS FROM NATIONALBANKEN

NEWS FROM NATIONALBANKEN 1ST QUARTER 2016 NO. 1 NEWS FROM NATIONALBANKEN PROSPERITY IN DENMARK IS KEEPING UP Since the crisis in 2008, the Danish economy has generated an increase in prosperity, which is actually slightly higher

More information

Economic Survey 3/2012. Norwegian economy. Economic trends

Economic Survey 3/2012. Norwegian economy. Economic trends Economic trends Economic growth among Norway's trading partners has declined markedly in 2012, and is now very low. Both the majority of European countries and the USA are reporting high and rising unemployment.

More information

Debt Market Outlook - 2015

Debt Market Outlook - 2015 Debt Market Outlook - 2015 DEBT MARKET PERFORMANCE IN 2014 The Indian bond market saw a sharp rally in H2 of CY 14, inspite of absence of rate cuts. The bond market rallied due to the following factors.

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

How To Be Cheerful About 2012

How To Be Cheerful About 2012 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

Oil Price and Korean Economy

Oil Price and Korean Economy Oil Price and Korean Economy April 17, 2015 Jaerang Lee - Contents - I. Oil Price Outlook II. Effects on Korean Economy III. Conclusion I. Oil Price Outlook Oil prices have lowered to around mid 50 dollars

More information

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural

More information

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update September 2014. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update September 2014. Copyright Eiendomsverdi EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update September 2014 Executive summary The Norwegian house prices remained unchanged (-0.1 percent) in September However, seasonally adjusted the growth rate was 0.7 percent

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to

More information

Except for China (& Ukraine), OK?

Except for China (& Ukraine), OK? Except for China (& Ukraine), OK? Global economic & market outlook Riga, May 28, 2014 Harald Magnus Andreassen +47 23 23 82 60 hma@swedbank.no Usually, it has paid well off to be a sober optimist Usually,

More information

Norwegian economy Economic Survey 1/2015. Economic trends

Norwegian economy Economic Survey 1/2015. Economic trends Norwegian economy Economic Survey 1/2015 Economic trends Perspectives What many people had feared became a reality in 2014: a sharp fall in oil prices that may be permanent. From an average of USD 110

More information

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW MAY 20 Koç Holding CONTENTS Global Economy... 3 Global Financial Markets... 3 Global Economic Growth Forecasts... 3 Turkey Macroeconomic Indicators... Economic Growth... Industrial

More information

ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES. A decomposition of NIBOR NR. 3 2015 KRISTIAN TAFJORD MARKET OPERATIONS AND ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES. A decomposition of NIBOR NR. 3 2015 KRISTIAN TAFJORD MARKET OPERATIONS AND ANALYSIS A decomposition of NR. 3 2015 KRISTIAN TAFJORD MARKET OPERATIONS AND ANALYSIS The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Norges Bank This commentary discusses the

More information

The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries

The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research Objective The objective

More information

Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel

Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel Status og utsikter for norsk sokkel Marknadskreftene rår «Oljetrykket» Seminar i regi av DNB og Næringsforeningen i Stavanger-regionen Stavanger, 2. mars 214 Klaus Mohn, professor of petroleum economics

More information

Brazil Economic Overview

Brazil Economic Overview Brazil Economic Overview New York Alexandre Tombini Governor February 2013 1 Macroeconomic Policy and Social Development Macroeconomic fundamentals, combined with adequate prudential policies and strong

More information

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update July. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update July. Copyright Eiendomsverdi EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update July Executive summary The market cooled off further and fell by 1.1 percent. Seasonally adjusted this was a fall of 0.3 percent Volumes were low, in fact the lowest

More information

The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program

The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program The Central Role of Energy Efficiency in the Energy Outlook and EIA s Energy Data Program For MIT Energy Initiative Symposium May 12, 2014 Cambridge, MA By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S.

More information

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015

National Economic Indicators. September 28, 2015 National Economic Indicators September 8, Table of Contents GDP Release Date Latest Period Page Table: Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Real Gross Domestic Product Sep-- 8: Q- Decomposition of Real

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s

More information

BIS database for debt service ratios for the private nonfinancial

BIS database for debt service ratios for the private nonfinancial BIS database for debt service ratios for the private nonfinancial sector Data documentation The debt service ratio (DSR) is defined as the ratio of interest payments plus amortisations to income. As such,

More information

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet

Statistics Netherlands. Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Macroeconomic Imbalances Factsheet Introduction Since the outbreak of the credit crunch crisis in 2008, and the subsequent European debt crisis, it has become clear that there are large macroeconomic imbalances

More information

www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 September 2013

www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 September 2013 www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global wage projections to 2030 Summary: Wage gap between emerging and advanced economies will shrink significantly by 2030 By 2030, our projections in this report suggest that

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

13.8% Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015. Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession $17,000

13.8% Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015. Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession $17,000 Exhibit 1 Steady U.S. Economic Growth After a Severe Recession Inflation-adjusted GDP (billions) $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 13.8% Cumulative growth 2009 to Q3 2015 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000

More information

Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation

Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Speech by Mr Per Jansson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Nordea, Stockholm, 3 March. * * * Today, I will talk about the assessment of the

More information

Activity in the Norwegian foreign exchange and derivatives markets in April 2013

Activity in the Norwegian foreign exchange and derivatives markets in April 2013 1 Activity in the Norwegian foreign exchange and derivatives markets in April 2013 Every three years since 1989, Norges Bank has conducted a survey of activity in the Norwegian foreign exchange market

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012

Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Introduction For the fifth consecutive year, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published the Consumer Credit Overview, its yearly report on the international

More information

Global Marine Insurance Report 2008

Global Marine Insurance Report 2008 Global Marine Insurance Report 28 Astrid Seltmann Facts & Figures Committee Analyst/Actuary, CEFOR, Norway Report on marine insurance premiums 26 and 27 By end of August 28, 49 of 54 members (ex 45 of

More information

Low repo rate supports upturn in inflation. Governor Stefan Ingves Bank & Finans Outlook 18 March 2015

Low repo rate supports upturn in inflation. Governor Stefan Ingves Bank & Finans Outlook 18 March 2015 Low repo rate supports upturn in inflation Governor Stefan Ingves Bank & Finans Outlook 18 March 2015 Sweden - a small open economy in an uncertain world Large oil price fluctuations Negative interest

More information

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar

Monetary Policy Outlook in a Negative Rates Environment Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México J.P. Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 15 April 2016 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Macroeconomic Policy in Mexico 3 Evolution and Outlook

More information

International competition will change mortgage lending

International competition will change mortgage lending Pentti Hakkarainen Deputy Governor, Bank of Finland International competition will change mortgage lending Nordic Mortgage Council Helsinki, 28 August 2015 28.8.2015 Unrestricted 1 Financial stability

More information

Invesco Capital Shield 90 (EUR) Fund Monthly Fund Analysis

Invesco Capital Shield 90 (EUR) Fund Monthly Fund Analysis This document is exclusively for use by professional clients and financial advisors in Continental Europe and is not for retail client use. Please do not redistribute. All opinions and forecasts expressed

More information

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015 BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015

More information

How does the gold price compare to other macroeconomic indicators?

How does the gold price compare to other macroeconomic indicators? How does the gold price compare to other macroeconomic indicators? Introductory comments to Session 2 John Gault The following contribution formed part of the Chatham House Gold Taskforce s investigation

More information

Economic and Market Report. EU Automotive Industry Quarter 4 2015

Economic and Market Report. EU Automotive Industry Quarter 4 2015 Economic and Market Report EU Automotive Industry Quarter 4 2015 March 2016 CONTENTS Passenger cars... 2 Registrations... 2 World... 2 The European Union... 5 Production... 7 World... 7 The European Union...

More information

Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens

Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Evaluating the Australian Outlook through a Global Lens Chris Siniakov Managing Director, Fixed Income International Bond Yields 4.00% 2-Year Government Yields as at 15 January 2015 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00%

More information

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH How far will interest rates rise? The neutral level of interest rates in most economies is much lower than in the past However, we expect the US Fed funds rate to rise temporarily

More information

State of the Economy

State of the Economy State 1 of State the Economy of the Economy June 2016 Office of Ril the - Junt Chief pr Economic f Adviser June 2016 State of the Economy Dr Gary Gillespie Chief Economist 3 June 2016 State of the Economy

More information

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016 Publication date: 14 January 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending

More information

Price projection 2013

Price projection 2013 Price projection 2013 CONTENTS 1. PRICE PROJECTION 2013 3 2. ECONOMIC SITUATION 3 2.1. Finland 4 2.2. Sweden 5 2.3. Norway 5 2.4. Denmark 5 2.5. United Kingdom 5 2.6. The Netherlands 5 3. CURRENCY EXCHANGE

More information

Brazil Economic Outlook

Brazil Economic Outlook Brazil Economic Outlook London School of Economics Alexandre Tombini Governor January 2014 1 Brazil overview Brazil is among the largest countries in terms of territory, population and GDP Brazil has vast

More information

Japan s Economic Challenges

Japan s Economic Challenges Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.

More information