Price projection 2013

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1 Price projection 2013

2 CONTENTS 1. PRICE PROJECTION ECONOMIC SITUATION Finland Sweden Norway Denmark United Kingdom The Netherlands 5 3. CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES 6 4. PRICE PROJECTION 8 5. PUBLICATION PACKAGES 8 6. VALUE ADDED TAX Impact of value added tax 9 2

3 PRICE PROJECTION 2013 Dear customer, You are holding the first 2013 Price Projection by LM Information Delivery. The past year, like the one before it, has been very eventful from an economic perspective. It appears that the economic turbulence will continue. There are several uncertainties, as problems continue in the US, Europe, Asia and the Arab countries, shaking national economies both locally and globally. Factors relating to national economy do not directly impact the publisher prices of publications; however they do have an indirect effect, such as the fluctuation of exchange rates. National economies may also have a direct effect on the budgets available. This Price Projection seeks to offer a comprehensive overall image of the current situation. It should be borne in mind, however, that circumstances can vary substantially from one library to the next, and the price increases and exchange rates can have very different consequences for our customers. 2. ECONOMIC SITUATION The economic situation in the world continues to be weak, and no significant changes are in sight during Financial relief will contribute to demand in 2013, in the developing markets in particular, so political decisions in the eurozone remain the key question in the development of the economic situation. During the second quarter of 2012, overall production rates grew slower than trend growth in the US, where a moderate increase appears to continue. The eurozone debt crisis and slowness of the decisions has lowered expectations and it looks likely that the recession will continue until the end of Insecurities force companies to postpone investments and the weak standing of banks decreases the amount of credit being issued. The eurozone has succumbed to recession and there are no shortcuts to growth. The predicting indicators for the US and China have weakened and growth has slowed down, but the total production rates of these countries are still predicted to grow. Even though overall growth in the world economy will probably continue to be slightly slower than normal, the decline in economic trends adds to the pressure to relieve financial policies on all continents. 3

4 Massive debt will continue to overshadow the national economies of many developed countries, as the public economies of these countries are not sustainable in the long term due to the ageing populations and structural problems restricting the growth. Simultaneously, the private sector continues to digest the consequences of the real estate bubble from Spain to the US. Japan, the UK and US will be able to manage their debt, partly due to their own central banks. The US has grown perseveringly from one quarter to the next since the recession hit rock bottom in The gross national product grew in the period April to June by 0.4% compared the previous quarter; 2.3% in comparison to the situation one year before. In late summer, economic growth continued, but at a slower pace. The increase of total production in the US is sufficient to create more jobs. The net figure of new jobs in the period from January to August was just under 140,000 jobs a month, but the pace has slowed down in the summer months. The unemployment rate stood at 8.1% in August. Political decision-making was complicated by the extreme differences of opinion between the major parties and preparations for the presidential election. The US can still afford to increase its debt and take advantage of the dollar s central standing, even though this will result in a growing burden for the coming years. For now, the state can finance the deficit, and financial policy will need not be tightened at once. There are insecurities connected to the financial policy after the presidential election; however, it is predicted that the US will avoid recession as such. The growth of total production will falter in the non-eurozone EU countries. In Sweden, the GPD grew by a substantial 4.0% in 2011 and the growth continued into Consumer confidence is at a fairly good level. Industrial production is decreasing. The Central Bank reduced the benchmark interest rate to 1.25% in September and a further cut is anticipated. The economic situation in the United Kingdom hit recession in the winter and no signs of economic recovery are in sight Finland The Finnish economy has been fairly flexible in Eurozone crisis management and the consequences have not been visible in the everyday business. In 2010, the Finnish national economy grew by 3.3% with 2.7% growth in 2011; while, in 2012, it is estimated that the increase will stagnate at 0.8%. Average economic growth in is estimated to be around 1.8% and inflation at 2.4%. 4

5 2.2. Sweden Despite economic problems in the eurozone and Sweden s dependence on exports to the area, the country s exports and gross domestic product grew in the first half of The growth prediction for the whole year is 1.6%. The economic growth is predicted to stand at 1.8% in 2013 and at approximately 2.2% in It is estimated that inflation will remain low, i.e. below 2%, until Norway Economic growth in 2012 is predicted to remain at 3.8%. The relatively high growth springs from the strong oil and marine industries and the solid private demand. It is predicted that the Central Bank of Norway will keep the interest rate level low in 2012 as a counter measure to the pressures to increase the value of the Norwegian krone. The average economic growth is estimated to be at 2.6% in the period from 2013 to 2016 and the national economy will accrue a pleasant surplus Denmark Denmark s recovery from the recession of is still on a fragile basis. Households are debt-ridden and external demand is weak. Economic growth in 2012 is predicted to stay at 0.4%. More sustainable economic growth is estimated for 2013, but risks remain rather substantial. The problems in the eurozone are easily reflected in the Danish economy. A foreign trade surplus does continue and this is estimated to be the case in the coming years United Kingdom Measures tightening the national economy will result in tax raises and the greatest budget cuts since the 1940s. The slow economic growth will probably mean that the deficit goals will not be met. Problems in the eurozone are also reflected in the banking sector that is still weak in the United Kingdom. Even though the country has recovered from the 6.3% decline in economic growth in , growth still stands at a modest level and it is predicted to remain at 0.5% in Average growth of 1.1% is predicted for the period from 2013 to The Netherlands The Netherlands, just like Finland, is faced with a challenge with the eurozone crisis. There have been budget deficits in the country, and this is predicted to continue at least until It is estimated that the economy will decline by 0.7% in For the period from 2013 to 2016, estimates indicate an average annual growth of 1.1%. In 2012, inflation is 2.6% and it is predicted to remain at an average level of 2.2% in the period from 2012 to There is a surplus in Dutch foreign trade. 5

6 3. CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES Changes in exchange rates may have a more substantial influence on the final price of the subscribed publication than the publishers price increases. Exchange rates are unpredictable and their eventual impact on the final price is impossible to estimate. The continuing euro crisis makes it extremely complicated to predict exchange rate behaviour and their impact. As it has been seen during the past spring and summer, the US dollar has strengthened significantly against the euro. This has also been the case with the Swedish krona. Foreign currency s strengthening against the domestic currency is a negative development, as the prices of publications acquired from the country in question rise in the domestic currency. Due to this, one must be prepared that the prices will escalate for publications priced in US dollars or Swedish krona more than the publishers price increases, if the customer is charged in euros. Respectively, our customers in the United Kingdom and Sweden will benefit from the weakening of the euro, as publications charged in euros will become more inexpensive. Exchange rates tend to overreact to negative news and the courses will settle at a proper level within a few days or weeks from the news. It is a feature of the global market that large sums of capital are transferred in the markets without any connection to trade or goods flows. They are purely speculative in nature, but can impact the exchange rates substantially. The table below indicates how the exchange rates most essential to the customers of LM Information Delivery have fluctuated against each other during the past year, as well as from the beginning of November EUR: USD GBP SEK NOK ,2611 0, ,3362 7,2925 November ,3556 0,8574 9,1387 7, ,4450 0,8856 9,1640 7,7395 On annual level -14,6 % -11,4 % -9,9 % -6,1 % From November -7,5 % -7,8 % -9,6 % -6,8 % 6

7 SEK: USD GBP EUR NOK , ,5379 8,3515 1, November , ,6570 9,1418 1, , ,3471 9,155 1, On annual level -5,6 % -1,8 % 8,8 % 2,7 % From November 1,0 % 1,1 % 8,6 % 2,2 % NOK: USD GBP SEK EUR ,7827 9,1701 0,8748 7,2925 November ,7454 9,0820 0,8521 7, ,3561 8,7393 0,8446 7,7395 On annual level -8,0 % -4,9 % -3,6 % 5,8 % From November -0,6 % -1,0 % -2,7 % 12,1 % GBP: USD EUR CAD AUD ,5882 1,26 1,5672 1,5367 November ,5804 1,1659 1,6199 1, ,6282 1,1309 1,5924 1,5204 On annual level -2,5 % 11,4 % -1,6 % 1,1 % From November 0,5 % 8,1 % -3,3 % 1,8 % DKK: The Danish krone (DKK) is tied to the euro, so its fluctuation against other currencies is similar to that of the euro. Negative figures in the table above indicate an increase in price due to changes in exchange rates. The rates for November are average rates for the month. November is a significant month, because the subscriptions paid in advance are settled to the publishers in November. It is predicted that the US dollar will fluctuate against the euro in the next 12 months: 1 = $1.30 $1.35. It is predicted that the GB pound will fluctuate against the euro in the next 12 months: It is predicted that the Swedish krona will fluctuate against the euro in the next 12 months: It is predicted that the Norwegian krone will fluctuate against the euro in the next 12 months:

8 4. PRICE PROJECTION At the time of writing (mid-september), the price information obtained from publishers alone does not provide enough data for the production of a Price Projection for Consequently, the first version of the Price Projection concentrates on reviewing the historical price developments. The table below demonstrates the development of prices for publications charged in different currencies since Year/currency In USD In GBP In SEK In EUR (Swedish) In NOK In EUR (Finnish) In EUR (other countries) Average > ,27 % 6,44 % 6,11 % 2,35 % 7,25 % 4,27 % 6,48 % 6,17 % > ,53 % 8,66 % 4,72 % 3,32 % 7,07 % 4,53 % 6,75 % 6,37 % > ,95 % 5,20 % 4,65 % 2,76 % 5,51 % 2,31 % 5,65 % 4,58 % > ,71 % 5,36 % 3,35 % 8,43 % 2,97 % 3,35 % 4,58 % 4,82 % > ,71 % 6,87 % 4,81 % 2,36 % 5,81 % 3,79 % 5,61 % 5,14 % Average 7,63 % 6,51 % 4,73 % 3,84 % 5,72 % 3,65 % 5,81 % The figures in the table are average percentages of change. For a single title, the change might have been very significant: for publications charged in USD for example, the range of price changes from 2011 to 2012 was -80% 395%. The most drastic cases naturally result from changes in format or the publication times. For general topic magazines, it is estimated that prices will increase about 5% in 2013, whereas for scientific journals the increase will be around 5 7%. This includes only the increase in publisher prices, not the impact of exchange rate changes. If the US dollar keeps strengthening against other currencies, for example, prices of the magazines charged in dollars will increase respectively. 5. PUBLICATION PACKAGES LM Information Delivery wishes to remind customers of the following: Nowadays, publishers tend to combine publications into packages, a trend that it seems will continue in The price for such publication packages is predicted to change more drastically than the predicted average changes in prices. Our customers should take into account that the pricing of such packages can be based on factors other than the number of publications included in the package. The rates can be based on user statistics or the changes the customer makes in the content. 8

9 As in the earlier years, we highly recommend that customers follow the user rates of electronic resources. Monitoring user rates helps in observing the actual price of a single title in the package per viewing times. It also helps to assess if the package solution is more reasonably priced overall than single title subscriptions. We also encourage customers to get acquainted with the license terms and conditions of licensed package solutions and their pricing terms in particular. Should you require any assistance in the monitoring of user statistics, let your contact at LM Information Delivery know. 6. VALUE ADDED TAX (Finnish customers only) On 1 January 2013, all VAT rates will rise by one percentage point. The new tax rate for electronic titles will be 24% and for printed titles it will be 10% Impact of value added tax If the product for which value added tax is charged is purchased by a party that is liable to VAT or exempted from VAT, the tax has no impact on the price of the rate. A party liable to VAT can deduct the value added tax for products purchased in its own operations. Companies, cities and municipalities, the different public utilities, the state and its organisations are all liable to pay VAT. If the purchaser is not liable to pay value added tax (very small companies, various organisations and consumers), the price will rise due to the increase of the value-added tax. The price increase will depend on how much of the VAT the publishers will shift to the final price of the product. This Price Projection is intended for the use of LM Information Delivery customers in their budget planning. LM Information Delivery will accept no responsibility for the accuracy of the budget decisions the customer might make on the basis of this Price Projection. All price increase estimates indicated in this Price Projection are average estimates, and actual changes in prices may differ significantly from these estimates. Customers can use this Price Projection as a budgeting tool at their own risk. LM Information Delivery does not function in the responsibilities of a legal, financial, accounting or tax advisor. 9

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