The economic outlook and monetary policy

Transcription

1 The economic outlook and monetary policy Governor Svein Gjedrem SR-Bank, Stavanger March 5 Interest rates and inflation Per cent Market rate Real interest rate Neutral real interest rate Inflation SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

2 Projected consumer price inflation 5-year horizon. Annual rise. Per cent Employers organisations Employees organisations Experts Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Source: TNS Gallup Krone exchange rate and interest rate differential against trading partners Percentage points Interest rate differential (left-hand scale) Index Krone exchange rate (right-hand scale) SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Source:

3 Demand Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent Last 7 quarters Last quarters Private cons. Public cons. Mainland invest. Petroleum invest. Exp. trad. goods SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 5 Housing investment and housing starts Seasonally adjusted. Q Q 9 5 Housing starts, number of dwellings (right-hand scale) 7 Housing investment, in millions of -NOK (left-hand scale) 5 SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

4 Output, employment and productivity Average quarterly growth (annualised) through Q. Per cent 5 Last 7 quarters Last quarters 5 Mainland GDP Employed persons Person-hours worked Productivity SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 7 Rise in prices and capacity utilisation in the Norwegian economy Per cent Rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway Capacity utilisation SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

5 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector. -month change. Per cent. Jan Feb SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Actual IR / Contribution to the decline in CPI-ATE inflation from Dec. Percentage points. Jan Feb Imported consumer goods House rents Remainder Other services - 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 9 Harmonised indices of consumer prices in the Nordic countries and the euro area. -month change. Per cent. Jan Feb 5 Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Euro area SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Source: Eurostat

6 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP. 5 Growth on previous year. Per cent Underlying spending growth 9 Nominal growth in mainland GDP SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Ministry of Finance (NB 5) and Statistics Norway GDP growth among trading partners Real growth on previous year. Actual and forecasts China ) World ) 5 trading partners ) SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 ) Source: Consensus Forecasts ) Source:

7 Chinese imports of crude oil and oil price Monthly imports in millions of tonnes. Oil price, USD/barrel. -month moving average 5 5 Chinese imports of aluminium and aluminium prices Monthly imports in thousands of tonnes. Aluminium price in USD/tonne. -month moving average 5 Chinese imports, aluminium (right-hand scale) Oil price (left-hand scale) 9 Chinese imports of crude oil (right-hand scale) Spot price aluminium (left-hand scale) SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: EcoWin, National Bureau of Statistics and 55 Oil price in USD/barrel (Brent Blend) Forward prices from Oct and Mar 5. Daily figures. Jan Dec March October IR SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources:, Telerate and IPE

8 Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport Estimated and actual investments. In billions of NOK 5 The petroleum sector Production in industries supplying goods and services to the petroleum sector Regional network. 5. Index ) M A N F M A N actual Estimate made previous year Estimate made same year - ) A positive index value indicates increased activity - 5 SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and s regional network 5 Wage growth -quarter change. Per cent Euro area UK Japan External price impulses US Sweden Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency Annual figures. Per cent SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: EcoWin and

9 -month money market rate and exchange rate in IR /5 Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q 5 Interest rate (left-hand scale) 9 Import-weighted exchange rate (right-hand scale) SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 9 Source: 7 Real growth in household disposable income ) and consumption Annual figures. Per cent. 99 Real income growth Real growth in consumption ) Adjusted for extraordinary share dividends since SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and

10 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap in IR /5 Quarterly figures. Per cent. Q Q CPI-ATE - Output gap SR-Bank Stavanger March 5 Sources: Statistics Norway and 9