EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update September Copyright Eiendomsverdi

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1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update September 2014

2 Executive summary The Norwegian house prices remained unchanged (-0.1 percent) in September However, seasonally adjusted the growth rate was 0.7 percent Year over year growth jumps to 3.4 percent due to the weak housing market last autumn New all time high for transactions in September and YTD Fewer unsold homes in all major cities except Stavanger Unsold stock much lower than September last year Kristiansand, and now also Stavanger, underperform while Tromsø vastly outperforms The monthly housing market update

3 The HPI Norway September : Down 0.1 % The monthly housing market update

4 12 month growth rate at 3.6%, up from 2.3%

5 Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: House prices fell slightly index down 0.1 percent Seasonally adjusted prices increased by 0.7 percent Year over year growth jumps to 3.4 percent due to the weak housing market last autumn 12 month growth rate has increased through most of 2014 Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 212,4 Change september ,1 % Change september ,4 % Change september ,1 % Change august ,6 % Change juli ,1 % Year over Year 3,6 % 5 Years 33,2 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,1 % Price Change since previous trough 33,6 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

6 The house price index, segmented by type:

7 House prices by housing types Detached was the only segment that fell in September But detached increased the most in August Apartments now strongest Y/Y And apartments is the strongest, both since the trough and over the last five years Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 208,9 217,2 212,6 Change september ,0 % 0,3 % 0,3 % Change september ,3 % -1,2 % -1,5 % Change september ,1 % 0,6 % -0,3 % Change august ,6 % 1,7 % 1,1 % Change juli ,6 % -0,1 % 0,6 % Year over Year 3,2 % 3,2 % 3,9 % 5 Years 28,3 % 31,3 % 36,1 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 43,6 % 49,7 % 54,5 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

8 House prices by selected counties

9 House prices by selected counties Oslo the strongest region in September Weakest region is Rogaland, the oil headquarter of Norway Rogaland is also the weakest Y/Y The rural parts of Norway now the strongest Y/Y, with Nordland and Hedmark the strongest regions Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 208,6 241,2 231,9 270,9 232,8 211,0 200,8 Change september ,4 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -0,6 % -0,4 % 0,0 % -0,2 % Change september ,7 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -1,6 % -1,1 % -1,8 % -1,2 % Change september ,1 % -0,1 % 0,0 % 0,1 % -0,5 % -0,7 % -0,3 % Change august ,3 % 1,6 % 1,6 % 1,3 % 1,9 % 1,4 % 2,0 % Change juli ,5 % 0,2 % 0,2 % -0,2 % -0,2 % 0,1 % -0,3 % Year over Year 2,6 % 5,2 % 4,1 % 0,0 % 5,5 % 2,0 % 5,6 % 5 Years 37,7 % 37,8 % 44,6 % 34,2 % 38,0 % 12,5 % 24,2 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -2,5 % -0,4 % -1,7 % -0,2 % Price Change since previous Trough 7,3 % 8,8 % 7,7 % 4,5 % 9,1 % 6,5 % 9,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Tromsø shows the strongest growth for yet another month Stavanger the oil capital of Norway - the weakest and the only city with a fall in September Stavanger is now the only city with Y/Y fall Tromsø still the strongest Y/Y Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway Index (Jan 03 = 100) 208,3 244,6 229,3 285,3 207,7 230,5 227,3 220,4 212,6 Change september ,4 % 0,2 % 0,1 % -0,5 % 0,4 % 0,9 % 0,3 % 0,0 % 0,3 % Change september ,7 % -1,2 % -1,6 % -1,6 % -1,6 % -0,9 % -1,5 % -1,2 % -1,5 % Change september ,2 % -0,4 % -0,1 % -0,4 % -1,6 % -0,3 % -0,3 % -0,7 % -0,3 % Change august ,2 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 0,7 % 0,7 % 2,2 % 1,4 % 1,4 % 1,1 % Change juli ,6 % 0,7 % 0,5 % 0,3 % 0,8 % 1,4 % 0,6 % 0,8 % 0,6 % Year over Year 2,6 % 5,8 % 3,1 % -0,2 % 1,4 % 14,3 % 3,7 % 8,1 % 3,9 % 5 Years 38,2 % 42,5 % 46,1 % 37,3 % 9,9 % 42,1 % 49,1 % 39,1 % 36,1 % Price Change since previous all time high 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -3,4 % -3,5 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % 0,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 56,9 % 61,3 % 69,3 % 56,7 % 24,0 % 60,0 % 68,4 % 52,2 % 54,5 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

12 Median house prices and the first and third quartile

13 Oslo has the highest detached prices followed by Akershus (Oslo suburb) and Rogaland (Stavanger area)

14 But the median price for apartments are highest in Stavanger

15 Unsold stock Norway

16 Unsold stock in Oslo, Bergen an Trondheim at historic lows

17 But Stavanger area is still at a level last seen in 2008

18 Falls from August, but still older than 2012 and 2013

19 September: New all tim high for transactions The monthly housing market update

20 Volumes YTD All time high also for YTD transactions The monthly housing market update

21 As is normal time on the market falls in September

22 But still longer than in 2011, 12 and 13

23 International Prices Sweden and the UK catch up to Norway Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

24 The sell ask spread Norway

25 The sell-ask spread: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim and Stavanger

26 The sell-ask spread: Kristiansand, Tromsø, Bodø and Drammen

27 Summary the sell-ask spread The hottest bidding contests appear to be in Oslo and Bergen The Stavanger seller only just achieves his/her asking price The average Kristiansand seller still does not achieve his/her asking price Table 5 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway sep. 14 5,0 % 5,6 % 1,7 % 0,0 % -0,6 % 2,1 % 2,3 % 2,2 % 2,1 % Average ( ) 4,6 % 4,4 % 2,5 % 2,4 % 1,5 % -0,7 % 1,4 % 2,1 % 2,2 % All-time high 10,5 % 11,8 % 7,9 % 10,1 % 10,0 % 4,1 % 5,5 % 8,2 % 6,2 % Date All time high ( ) Aug 06 Aug 06 Feb 13 Jun 06 Aug 06 Jan 07 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 All-time low -6,7 % -5,1 % -6,0 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -7,7 % -3,4 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) Des 08 Des 08 Des 08 Des 08 Des 08 Nov 08 Okt 08 Okt 09 Dec 08 The monthly housing market update

28 Housing starts in Norway for August: 2,425 The monthly housing market update

29 Housing starts in Norway: 12-months rolling sum is increasing again The monthly housing market update

30 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices were under-estimated by 2.5 % The monthly housing market update

31 EIENDOMSVERDI Second homes 3. quarter 2014

32 Executive summary Second home prices now significantly higher than last year up 7.4 percent Y/Y Average time on the market for sold second homes increased this may signal a stronger market as previously unsold homes finally found a buyer Volumes reached an all time high for the third quarter beating the previous all time high of 2013 by 16 percent The monthly housing market update

33 Median Value 3. quarter second homes The monthly housing market update 33

34 Average time on market second homes 3. quarter The monthly housing market update 34

35 Transaction volumes 3. quarter second homes The monthly housing market update 35

36 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: Housing research Erling Røed Larsen Tel: Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: The monthly housing market update

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