Financial Stability 2/12. Charts

Transcription

1 Financial Stability /1 Charts

2 Chart 1.1 Vulnerabilities in the Norwegian banking sector and external sources of risk to the banking sector 1) Vulnerability in banking sector External sources of risk to banking sector May 1 ) November 1 Funding of banking sector Structure of banking sector Capital and earnings in banking sector Macroeconomic conditions Enterprises Money and credit markets Households 1) A value of, i.e. origo, denotes the lowest level of risk or vulnerability. A value of 1 denotes the highest level of risk or vulnerability. ) The method used to estimate vulnerability related to capital and earnings has been adjusted. The May 1 estimate for capital and earnings in the banking sector has therefore been revised. Source: Norges Bank

3 Chart 1. Ten-year government bond yields in European countries. Percent. Daily figures. To November Germany Spain France Italy Portugal Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1 Jul Source: Thomson Reuters

4 Chart 1.3 Bank lending surveys in the euro area. Net share of banks that have tightened credit standards. Quarterly figures. To 1 Q3 7 7 Enterprises Households Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11-3 Source: ECB

5 Chart 1. GDP for mainland Norway, the euro area and trading partners. Index (at constant prices). = 1. To 15 1) Mainland Norway Euro area Trading partners ) Projections for Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet 95

6 Chart 1.5 Oil price in USD. Daily figures. To November Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-1 Source: Thomson Reuters

7 Chart 1. Domestic debt (C). 1-month change. Percent. To September Private and municipal sector Non-financial enterprises Households -15 des-88 des-9 des-9 des- des- des-8 1) Households, non-financial enterprises and municipalities. Source: Statistics Norway 1)

8 Chart 1.7 CDS prices 5-year senior bond debt. Weekly figures. Percent. To 1 November 1 BBVA 5 3 Danske Bank itraxx Senior Financials Deutsche Bank Nordea DNB 1) Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1 Jul-1 1) 5 large European financial institutions. Source: Bloomberg

9 Chart 1.8 Banks and mortgage companies qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on market funding. 1) Monthly data. To October 1 Access funding Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr. Risk premium funding Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr. Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr ) Average reported by banks in Norges Bank s liquidity survey. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicates unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums. Source: Norges Bank

10 Chart 1.9 Volume of bonds and covered bonds issued by Norwegian banks and mortgage companies. In billions of NOK. To November 1 Bank bonds - NOK Bank bonds - foreign currency Covered bonds - NOK 3 3 Covered bonds - foreign currency Jan - Nov 11 Jan - Nov 1 Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg 9

11 Chart 1.1 Indicative risk premiums on 5-year Norwegian bank bonds and covered bonds. Spread against swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. 1 January 7 November DNB Bank Small banks with high rating Covered bonds Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan Source: DNB Markets

12 Chart 1.11 Spread between 3-month money market rate and market key rate expectations. Percentage points. 5-day moving average. Daily figures. To November USD LIBOR EURIBOR STIBOR NIBOR Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1 Jul-1. Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

13 Chart 1.1 Banks 1) stable funding as a percentage of net stable funding requirement (NSFR). Consolidated figures. At end of quarter Q3 11 Q 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q Weighted average 1) Sample consists of 17 banks in Norway, primarily the largest. Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

14 Chart 1.13 Norwegian-owned banks net 1) short-term market funding as a percentage of total assets. Quarterly figures. To 1 Q Gross funding Deposits in central banks + government bonds < 1 year Other bonds Net funding 1 (minus highly liquid bonds) Net funding (also minus other bonds) ) Net 1 is minus deposits with central banks and government securities maturing in one year or less. Net is also minus other bonds. Source: Norges Bank

15 Chart 1.1 Banks 1) liquid assets as a percentage of liquidity requirement (LCR). Weighted average for the group. Consolidated figures. As at end of quarter 1 11 Q3 11 Q 1 Q1 1 Q 1 Q All banks DNB + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets > NOK bn Savings banks Total assets < NOK bn 1) All banks in Norway except branches of foreign banks. Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

16 Chart 1.15 Funding costs for Norwegian banking groups 1). Percent. Monthly figures. To September Average funding costs (estimated) Short-term wholesale funding (estimated) Deposits Long-term wholesale funding (estimated) ) Covered bond mortgage companies and banks in Norway except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

17 Chart 1.1 Estimated average risk premium 1) on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banking groups ). Monthly average. Basis points. To October Average risk premium outstanding senior bonds Average risk premium outstanding covered bonds Risk premium new senior bonds Risk premium new covered bonds ) Difference against swap rates. ) Covered bond mortgage companies and banks in Norway except branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks. Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank -5

18 Chart 1.17 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as percentage of average total assets. Percent. Annual and figures for the year to Q and 11 Q1 Q3 and 1 Q1 Q Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits Q1 - Q3 1 Q1 - Q ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway, but including branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Source: Norges Bank

19 Chart 1.18 Components of banks 1) loan losses as a percentage of gross retail lending. Percent. Annual and figures for the year to Q and as at end-11 Q3 and end-1 Q Impairment losses on loans Actual losses, non-provisioned Reversal of previous losses Loan losses Q3 1 Q3 -. 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway, but including branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Source: Norges Bank 18

20 Chart 1.19 Common Equity Tier 1 capital in banks 1 ) and residential mortgage companies. Percent. Annual and third quarter Q3 and 1 Q Common Equity Tier 1 capital / risk-weighted assets Common Equity Tier 1 capital / risk-weighted assets without floor Common Equity Tier 1 capital / total assets 9% Common Equity Tier 1 capital / risk-weighted assets Q3 Q3 1) All banks except branches of foreign banks in Norway. Source: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

21 Chart 1. Largest banks in Norway and Sweden 1) by lending market share. Percent. End SEB 7 5 Handelsbanken² ) Danske Bank² ) Nordea 5 3 Nordea Norge Swedbank 3 1 DNB Handelsbanken 1 Norway Sweden 1) Market shares for corporate and residential mortgage lending applied for Sweden, while lending to retail and corporate markets are applied for Norway. ) Handelsbanken and Danske Bank are branches in the Norwegian market. Sources: Norges Bank, Finansinspektionen, Swedbank, Statistics Norway

22 Chart 1.1 Potential capital requirement for a large bank 1) in 19. As a percentage of risk-weighted assets Countercyclical buffer (CET1) Buffer for systemically important banks (CET1) Tier Hybrid Tier 1 Conservation buffer (CET1) 1 8 Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ) Bank assuming maximum countercyclical buffer and maximum buffer for systemically important banks. Sources: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and Norges Bank

23 Chart 1. Interest margins. Percent. 1 January 1 November Key policy rate Money market premium Risk premium 5-year covered bonds Bank lending rate, new residential mortgages Estimated funding costs, mortgages 1) 7 5 Key policy rate Money market premium Risk premium 5-year bank bonds Average lending rate, corporate loans Estimated funding costs, corporate loans ) Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 1) Estimated from weighted rate on covered bond holdings and weighted deposit rate. ) Estimated from weighted rate on senior bond holdings and weighted deposit rate. Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk familieøkonomi, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

24 Chart 1.3 Average risk weights for residential mortgage loans and corporate loans 1) for Norwegian IRB banks. Percent. At 31 Dec 11 ) 1 1 Residential mortgage loans Corporate loans SR-Bank SMN Nord- Norge Vest DNB Bank 1 Nordea 1) Sum of specialised and other corporate lending for banks in SpareBank 1-alliansen. ) SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge as at 31 December 1. Sources: Pillar 3 reports from the institutions and Norges Bank

25 Chart 1. Household debt burden 1) and interest burden ). Percent. Quarterly figures. To 15 Q 3) Debt burden (right-hand scale) Interest burden (left-hand scale) ) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 15. ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 15, plus interest expenses. 3) Projections for 1 Q1 15 Q from Monetary Policy Report 3/1. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

26 Chart 1.5 House prices in selected countries. Indices Q1 = 1. Quarterly figures. To 1 Q3 1) Norway Sweden Denmark UK Netherlands Spain ) For Denmark to 1 Q. Source: Thomson Reuters 5

27 Chart 1. Domestic credit to households (C). 1-month change. Contributions to growth in the retail market 1) by position in the housing market. Percent. To September Non-homeowners Owners not selling/buying Owners selling/buying First-home owners 1-month change Jan-5 Jan- Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-1 1) Households excluding self-employed. Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank 8

28 1) Total debt excluding student loans. ) According to tax assessments, excluding insurance claims. 3) Excluding self-employed. Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank Chart 1.7 Debt 1), housing wealth and financial assets ) for indebted homeowning households 3). In billions of NOK Debt Gross financial wealth Market value after % fall in houseprices Loan-to-value ratio after fall in house prices % 95% % 3% 8% 5 to 3 years 35 to 5 to 5 55 to 5 to 7 years

29 Chart 1.8 Households 1) with a debt burden more than 5 times disposable income, by age ). Percent. Annual figures. To 11 3) All ) Excluding self-employed. ) Age of main income earner. 3) Estimates for 11. Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank

30 Chart 1.9 Total household 1) debt and gross financial assets ). Average. In thousands of NOK Debt (average) Gross financial assets (average) % Debt to asset ratio % % 13% All 3) All in income deciles ) -9 with net debt 1) Excluding self-employed. ) According to tax assessments, excluding insurance claims. 3).19m households. )1.1m households. 5) 1 households. Sources: Statistics Norway (tax assessment data) and Norges Bank All in income deciles -9 with net debt and debt burden 5 to 1 times disposable income 5) 5

31 Chart 1.3 Corporate debt by credit source. Stock. In billions of NOK. Monthly figures. To September Bank loans Foreign debt (mainland enterprises) Foreign debt (petroleum activity and shipping) Other finance companies Notes and bonds jan- jan- jan- jan-8 jan-1 jan-1 Source: Statistics Norway 3

32 Chart 1.31 Bank lending to enterprises supply and demand. To 1 Q Credit demand, index (left-hand scale) Credit standards, index (left-hand scale) Bank lending (C), 1-month change, percent -7 des-7 des-8 des-9 des-1 des-11 1) 1) ) ) A positive value implies an easing of credit standards/higher loan demand, a negative value implies a tightening of credit standards/lower loan demand. ) The Norwegian standard for institutional sector classification was changed as from 1 January 1. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March 1. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank s lending survey Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

33 Chart 1.3 Corporate bond issues. In billions of NOK. Daily figures. To November Issues by Norwegian enterprises of currency denominated bonds abroad Bond issues by Norwegian and foreign enterprises in the Norwegian bond market 1) ) All bonds registered in VPS, the Norwegian Central Securities Depository. Including bonds denominated in NOK and foreign currency. Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg

34 Chart 1.33 Debt-servicing capacity and change in operating margins. Quarterly and annual figures. To 1 Q Debt-servicing capacity, limited companies. Percent Debt-servicing capacity, listed companies. Percent Change in operating margins, regional network. Index (right-hand scale) Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun-8 Jun-1 Jun-1 1) Limited companies with debt to credit institutions. ) OBX index excluding Statoil and financial enterprises. 3) Change in operating margins past 3 months compared with same period a year earlier. The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth. Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank ) 1) 3) Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

35 Chart 1.3 Bank and OMF mortgage company lending by industry. Percentage of total corporate lending. As at end-11 Commercial property Foreign enterprises (primarily shipping) Services Construction Shipping and pipeline transport Retail trade, hotels and restaurants Primary industries Manufacturing Other transport Utilities Oil and gas extraction and oil services Source: Norges Bank 1 3

36 Chart 1.35 Freight rates. USD per day. Weekly figures. To 1 November Container Oil tanker Dry bulk Jan-9 Jan- Jan- Jan-8 Jan-1 Source: Clarksons LTD Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet 35

37 Chart 1.3 Market value of office premises in Oslo and employment growth 1). NOK per square metre (at constant 1 prices) and 1-month change in percent. Semi-annual and quarterly figures. To 1 Q Market value Employment growth (right-hand scale) - Dec-81 Dec-8 Dec-91 Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec- Dec-11 1) Annual figures in the period , quarterly figures from 199 Q. Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway - -3

38 Chart.1 Mainland GDP. Annual volume change. Percent. Annual figures ) Baseline scenario Adverse scenario 13 Adverse scenario 11 Adverse scenario ) Projections for next three years. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - -3

39 Chart. Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios. Baseline scenario and adverse scenario. Percent. Annual figures. 15 ) Baseline scenario Adverse scenario 13 Adverse scenario 11 Adverse scenario 9 Tier 1 capital ratio requirement in CRD IV ) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, Sparebank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge. ) Projections for next three years. 38 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

40 Chart.3 Weighted growth in credit to enterprises (C3) and households (C). Year-on-year growth. 1) Percent. Annual figures ) Baseline scenario Adverse scenario 13 Adverse scenario 11 Adverse scenario ) Change in stock of loans as measured at year-end. ) Projections for next three years. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

41 Chart. Bank 1) losses in adverse scenarios with different starting points for projections. ) In billions of NOK Adverse 9 Adverse 11 Adverse 13 1) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, Sparebank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge. ) Projections for next three years. Source: Norges Bank

42 Chart.5 Banks 1) problem loans as a percentage of gross lending. Annual figures ) ) All banks in Norway. ) Projections for next three years. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Baseline scenario Adverse scenario 13 Adverse scenario 11 Adverse scenario

43 Chart 1 Analytical framework. Marginal benefit and marginal cost of a one percentage point increase in capital ratios from different levels. Percent of GDP Marginal benefit Marginal cost Optimal capital ratio Source: Norges Bank Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio

44 Chart Scatter diagram for optimal capital adequacy ratios of Norwegian banks. Common Equity Tier 1 capital without the Basel I transition floor. Percent Cumulative cost of a banking crisis: 3 % of GDP Source: Norges Bank Average From minimum to maximum Cumulative cost of a banking crisis: % of GDP 1 1