Except for China (& Ukraine), OK?

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Except for China (& Ukraine), OK?"

Transcription

1 Except for China (& Ukraine), OK? Global economic & market outlook Riga, May 28, 2014 Harald Magnus Andreassen

2 Usually, it has paid well off to be a sober optimist

3 Usually, it has paid well off to be a sober optimist The world economy is weak, and on the way down less than 15% of the time

4 Usually, it has paid well off to be a sober optimist The world economy is weak, and on the way down less than 15% of the time Equity markets are falling seriously just 10 15% of the time

5 When to search for the shelter? The BIG macro risk factors High investments/high consumption High debt/low savings current account deficits High inflation (High asset prices) By the way, does the list seem familiar to you? 5

6 When to search for the shelter? The BIG macro risk factors High investments/high consumption High debt/low savings current account deficits High inflation (High asset prices) What is usually not that important cycle-wise? Not small wars, not oil prices, not plague or cholera Not Iran or North Korea And hopefully not Ukraine or Crimea Minor policy errors 6

7 Where is the world economy now? Most countries are not in the red light district, now China is the major risk 7

8 USA & Europe The FC was a disaster in many countries Now, six years later, many problems are solved, and not too many new created Private sector consolidation is behind us Investments on the way up, but still low. Savings are high Much of the pubic sector fiscal consolidation is behind us, debt is stabilising Whatever it takes (monetary) policy measures in the US, EMU, UK and Jp. The Eurozone is fully reconstructed (fiscal policy, ESM, ECB, banking union) Global imbalances are sharply reduced (as within the EMU) Wage inflation at 1 2%. Price inflation no threat near term (nor is deflation) 8

9 Investments are not high (ex China) 9

10 Even for the largest sinners, there is hope, in the end 10

11 Private sector debt consolidation, most places EMU not that special! Could still need some more now Households' debt In % of disposable income Norway adj. for dividends Sweden UK Spain USA Finl. France Germany Corporate debt In % of GDP Spain Denmark France EMU 100 UK 90 Norway Italy USA Germany Source: Reuters EcoWin, Swedbank Source: EcoWin, Swedbank FS 11

12 Most housing markets have stabilised There is some hot air in some markets? Most likely House prices Real prices, avg. before 2000=100 Norway Austr. 175 Sweden Can. Fr. Denm. 150 UK Netherl. 125 Icl. Finl. EMU It Switzerl 100 USA Irl. 75 Germany 50 Japan Source: EcoWin, Swedbank 12

13 Fiscal policy: Much of the tightening is behind us! Look to... Greece?? 13

14 The strong fiscal headwind is slowing to a mild summer breeze An unprecedented tightening in the US in 2013, almost 3% of GDP! USA Fiscal policy Change in structural deficit, % of GDP Estimates from OECD & IMF OECD IMF Source: EcoWin, First Securities 14

15 Some current account deficits are gone The PIGS to +2% of GDP, from -10% USA to -2%, from -6% In % of GDP Current accounts Spain Greece Italy France Source: EcoWin, Swedbank FS 15

16 Draghi, economic policy & some economic results Bond yields are record low, even for ol sinners 16

17 Wage inflation productivity = Inflation Wage inflation is still low, even if unemployment is down 17

18 Structural or cyclical? Will people return to the labour market? 18

19 UK: Unemployment is falling, wages are responding? And Bank of England is already discussing when to hike... 19

20 Anyway, wage inflation is still low everywhere! But not extremely (deflationary) low either, outside Japan 20

21 Deflation now? Do not think so! 21

22 The World Economy - A Very Short Status Check 22

23 The global economy is still kicking 23

24 Regionally: A mixed bag The slowdown recent months only due to Japan (the VAT hike) 24

25 EM: Gathering at ground zero And who is at the bottom now? 25

26 EMU: So far, so good Swedbank Composite PMI business survey EMU - PMI vs. GDP GDP, q/q % (annual rate) Source: EcoWin, Swedbank 26

27 EMU: France is the big looser 27

28 Spain: Better than anybody expected? And Italy has bottomed? Italy PMI vs GDP Spain PMI vs GDP GDP q/q, ann. rate GDP q/q, ann. rate Composite PMI Composite PMI Swedbank Swedbank Source: EcoWin, Swedbank Source: EcoWin, Swedbank 28

29 No more investments?? 29

30 The European consumer is not (that) downbeat anymore Except for the Norwegians Consumer confidence St.dev, avg = 0 (from 93) Swedbank FS EMU Sweden Norway USA Source: EcoWin, First Securities 30

31 Should the EU election have been postponed by 6 months?? 31

32 Finland, Sweden not that impressive 32

33 Sweden OK, says the surveys. Finland is lagging Mobile? Paper? Too few Angry Birds? Do they need an internal devaluation? 33

34 Well, Sweden has not yet delivered that much 34

35 Where is the big risk? - Most likely in China 35

36 China: A very special growth story What if 36

37 Can China do the credit trick once again? We doubt Thus: There are some downside risks. 37

38 Following credit booms, usually no plain sailing Minksy (and many more before him) told us so 38

39 The housing market is slowing down I House prices are flattening out. Price declines in many cites in April China New Home prices 150 Index, Dec 2004=100. s.a Change m/m (ann rate), y/y Swedbank Source: EcoWin, Swedbank 39

40 The housing market is slowing down II Sales are down, housing starts are down. As is growth in steel/cement production China Housing starts, sales 140 Mill. sq.m. pr month, smoothed Swedbank New starts Sales Source: EcoWin, Swedbank 40

41 The financing cost has increased for many companies China BBB corporate bond yield 41

42 A Chinese slowdown will be felt in some raw material markets It was a super cycle most likely with the normal two legs! 42

43 And is not just a marginally slower growth in demand The supply side has finally come up to speed in many markets! As always Capitalism works because most capitalists do not understand how capitalism works 43

44 Many disappointments in China recently However, not in other Emerging markets (and the first May PMI form China was OK) 44

45 Next week: ECB must deliver, or else. The economy has turned the corner, credit markets are gradually recovering. Wages is not falling. Core inflation has stabilised. Why act now? Because it should have acted long time ago But the Germans did not accept it.. and the ECB has promised to do it, now 45

46 What will the ECB do? Additional monetary easing is (almost) announced and (certainly) expected. Will it matter? Very likely: Further rate cut Main refinancing rate close to zero Negative deposit rate But effect on bank funding relatively small Quite possible: Targeted credit easing Funding for lending: Conditional LTRO to fund SMBs Smaller amounts of asset purchases: Covered bonds, asset-backed securities But banks may not want to lend much more Still unlikely at this point: Large-scale asset purchase programmes Purchases of government bonds The economy deserves all the stimulus it can get, just as in UK, US The market has discounted action. Spesific measures to allocate credit to SMB may impress. Large QE not likely 46

47 What more can the ECB do? 47

No boom, (probably) no bust

No boom, (probably) no bust No boom, (probably) no bust Global Economic & Market Outlook Riga May 10, 2016 Harald Magnus Andreassen +47 23 23 82 60 hma@swedbank.no The global economy: Growth is normal 3 OK, growth in rich countries

More information

GETTING OUT OF DEFLATION AN EXPERIENCE OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY

GETTING OUT OF DEFLATION AN EXPERIENCE OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY GETTING OUT OF DEFLATION AN EXPERIENCE OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY 1 Bank of Japan Shinichi Uchida Prologue (1990) 2 IN 1990 I was an LLM Student at HLS. 3 600 CY 1980=100 AT THAT TIME Japan was

More information

Euro area growth outlook 2012

Euro area growth outlook 2012 Euro area growth outlook 212 A rising tide lifts all boats 2 December 211 Allan von Mehren Chief Analyst Head of International Macro +45 4512 855 alvo@danskebank.dk Five reasons why euro recession will

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

Outlook for the Norwegian economy. Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo 21 February 2012

Outlook for the Norwegian economy. Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo 21 February 2012 Outlook for the Norwegian economy Foreign Press Association in Norway International Press Centre, Oslo February What now Europe? Continued high level of market uncertainty Austerity measures in many countries

More information

Outlook for the Norwegian and the international economy. Governor Øystein Olsen Kristiansand, 8 November 2013

Outlook for the Norwegian and the international economy. Governor Øystein Olsen Kristiansand, 8 November 2013 Outlook for the Norwegian and the international economy Governor Øystein Olsen Kristiansand, 8 November Outline International economy Norwegian economy Capital requirements and the interaction with monetary

More information

Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation

Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Speech by Mr Per Jansson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Nordea, Stockholm, 3 March. * * * Today, I will talk about the assessment of the

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

Investment outlook for the balance of 2005

Investment outlook for the balance of 2005 Investment outlook for the balance of 2005 There has been no significant change in our economic outlook over the last three months. Going overweight in Japanese and Asia Pacific ex Japan equities, taking

More information

The EMU and the debt crisis

The EMU and the debt crisis The EMU and the debt crisis MONETARY POLICY REPORT FEBRUARY 212 43 The debt crisis in Europe is not only of concern to the individual debt-ridden countries; it has also developed into a crisis for the

More information

Hungarian economic growth from a European perspective

Hungarian economic growth from a European perspective Hungarian economic growth from a European perspective Improving vulnerability, domestic consumption and investment indicators are all pointing to further GDP growth and diminishing vulnerability in 2016.

More information

How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation

How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation January 26, 2015 How low can you go? The risks, and rewards, of deflation Executive Summary Despite headline deflation in the Eurozone, there is little risk that the region will repeat the experience of

More information

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013

2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%

More information

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland

Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international

More information

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Market Review September 2015

Market Review September 2015 Market Review September 2015 Markets remained volatile in September, impacted by the ongoing concerns over slower growth in China and other emerging markets and fears over possible contagion to the global

More information

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?

2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? 2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises

More information

Arup DC Pension Scheme

Arup DC Pension Scheme A presentation for: Arup DC Pension Scheme March 3 rd 2015 ARUP DC PENSION SCHEME Investment Summary 31/01/2015 Merrion Cash Fund 2,280.59 Merrion Global Equity Fund 199,535.79 Merrion Long Bond Fund 19,456.87

More information

Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions

Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance IMFS Working Lunch, Frankfurt (Main), 15 July

More information

The Norwegian economy

The Norwegian economy The Norwegian economy Slower speed ahead, but still growth Strong mechanisms support mainland economy Wriggle room to smooth business cycles Rune Bjerke CEO Just how bad is it? Slower speed ahead but still

More information

The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi

The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi INVESTMENT DESK BULLETIN 9 th February 2016 The Tricky Trio: US Dollar, Oil and Chinese Renminbi Presented by Pau Morilla-Giner, Chief Investment Officer Tug Of War Between Services and Manufacturing Sectors

More information

Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 13 september 2012

Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 13 september 2012 Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 3 september Market uncertainty still high Yields on -year government bonds. Percent 8 8 US Germany UK Spain Italy Jan- Jul-

More information

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%)

2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%) The global economy recorded modest growth in 2014. Real GDP rose by 3.4%, however, economic performance varied by country and region (see table). Several regions turned in a lackluster performance. The

More information

Has Austerity Worked in Spain?

Has Austerity Worked in Spain? December 215 Has Austerity Worked in Spain? By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot* Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 4 Washington, DC 29 tel: 22-293-538 fax: 22-588-1356

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

Overcoming the Crisis

Overcoming the Crisis Overcoming the Crisis Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Bank of Greece Athens, 10 July 2014 Reasons for the crisis The crisis was caused by a very specific mix of circumstances: Excessive deficit/debt

More information

Daily Note Europe s Liquidity Trap. Eurozone: The spectre of deflation stalks Europe. United States: Check out the yield curve action!

Daily Note Europe s Liquidity Trap. Eurozone: The spectre of deflation stalks Europe. United States: Check out the yield curve action! Daily Note Europe s Liquidity Trap Summary Eurozone: The spectre of deflation stalks Europe United States: Check out the yield curve action! United Kingdom: Brits spending other people s money, again!

More information

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts

Summary of macroeconomic forecasts ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Summary of macroeconomic forecasts GDP Growth Inflation Curr. account / GDP Fiscal balances / GDP En % 215 216 e 217 e 215 216 e 217 e 215 216 e 217 e 215 216 e 217 e Advanced

More information

The Single European Currency

The Single European Currency The Single European Currency A2 Economics Key Issues The essentials of Euro Area membership Convergence criteria Optimal currency area theory Recent macro performance of the Euro Area Single currency membership

More information

No. 1 BANK OF RUSSIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT. Moscow

No. 1 BANK OF RUSSIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT. Moscow No. 1 2015 FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT Moscow Bank of Russia Foreign Exchange Asset Management Report No. 1 (33) 2015 Reference to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is mandatory in

More information

Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat. zu bearbeiten. The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s. economic policy. Thomas Westphal. 23th of February 2015

Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat. zu bearbeiten. The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s. economic policy. Thomas Westphal. 23th of February 2015 The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat economic policy zu bearbeiten Thomas Westphal Klicken Director Sie, General um das European Format Policy des Untertitel-Masters

More information

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current

More information

The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference

The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference Economic Outlook Spain June 9 2016 The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario? Rafael Doménech BBVA Financial Institutions Conference The global economic scenario has improved

More information

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2010

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2010 General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2010 Economics ECON4 Unit 4 The National and International Economy Tuesday 2 February 2010 1.30 pm to 3.30 pm For this paper you must

More information

Japan s Economic Challenges

Japan s Economic Challenges Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.

More information

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5 The role of monetary policy in economic restructuring Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation.5% Stable developments

More information

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM Growth has slowed, and is projected to be 1¾ per cent in 216. Uncertainty about the outcome of the end-june 216 referendum, which could lead to an exit of the United Kingdom from the European

More information

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011

The economic outlook for Norway. Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September 2011 The economic outlook for Norway Governor Øystein Olsen Sparebanken Hedmark 7 September GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China Sources: IMF and Norges Bank GDP Index, = Euro area US Brazil India China

More information

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016

Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May 2016 Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global World GDP is forecast to grow only 2.4% in 2016, weighed down by emerging market weakness and increasing uncertainty. 3 Eurozone The modest eurozone

More information

Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe

Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe Oliver Picek 1 Enno Schröder 2 1 The New School for Social Research 2 The New School for Social Research,

More information

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook

2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy January 2016 2016 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook After Struggling in 2015, Global Equity Markets likely

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 Spring 2015 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

M&G Corporate Bond Fund

M&G Corporate Bond Fund Quarterly Review M&G Corporate Bond Fund Third quarter 2015 Fund manager Richard Woolnough Overview A general risk-off tone prevailed in the third quarter amid significant volatility in risk markets, driving

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance

Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012. Mehmet Şimşek. Minister of Finance Turkish Arab Economic Forum June 29, 2012 Mehmet Şimşek Minister of Finance 1 Outline Turkey: Short Term Outlook Managing a Soft Landing Fallout from the Euro Crisis Turkey & MENA REBALANCING Growing ON

More information

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further

More information

MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT AT A TIME OF SLOW GROWTH. Paulo Medas. International Monetary Fund

MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT AT A TIME OF SLOW GROWTH. Paulo Medas. International Monetary Fund MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT AT A TIME OF SLOW GROWTH Paulo Medas International Monetary Fund THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM Debt at historical highs amid modest growth 1 9 8 7 6 5 Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Real GDP

More information

Interview De Telegraaf 21 June 2014

Interview De Telegraaf 21 June 2014 Interview De Telegraaf 21 June 2014 When Mario Draghi took over as President of the European Central Bank in November 2011, he stepped into the eye of the hurricane. The euro area was confronted with serious

More information

The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 2012

The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 2012 The financial turbulence and Norway what lessons can be drawn? Governor Øystein Olsen Eiendomsdagene Norefjell 19 January 1 The run-up to the financial crisis 1. Sharp rise in debt and asset prices low

More information

Strategy Document 1/03

Strategy Document 1/03 Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges

More information

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 3rd Quarter of 2015

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. 3rd Quarter of 2015 The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 3rd Quarter of 215 July 215 Content 1 SPF short-term inflation expectations revised upwards 1 2 Longer-term inflation expectations for 22 at 1.9% 3 3 Real GDP

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

FLASH ECONOMICS. Are there good reasons not to accept 1% inflation in the euro zone? ECONOMIC RESEARCH

FLASH ECONOMICS. Are there good reasons not to accept 1% inflation in the euro zone? ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMICS ECONOMIC RESEARCH 7 November - No. 9 Are there good reasons not to accept % inflation in the euro zone? The ECB is going to adopt an even more expansionary monetary policy, with the risks that

More information

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to

More information

Economic projections

Economic projections Economic projections 2016-2019 December 2016 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2016-2019 Economic activity in Malta is expected to remain robust over the projection horizon, supported

More information

MACROECONOMICS. Government Debt MANKIW N. GREGORY. PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich C H A P T E R SIXTH EDITION

MACROECONOMICS. Government Debt MANKIW N. GREGORY. PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich C H A P T E R SIXTH EDITION C H A P T E R 15 Government Debt MACROECONOMICS N. GREGORY MANKIW 2008 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved SIXTH EDITION PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich In this chapter, you will learn about the size

More information

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Suomen Pankki The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Euro & talous, 9 June 2016 1 Euro area economic growth is broadly based, but inflation still slow.

More information

Economic Growth in the European Union 16 X 2013. Leszek Balcerowicz Lech Kalina Aleksander Łaszek Andrzej Rzońca

Economic Growth in the European Union 16 X 2013. Leszek Balcerowicz Lech Kalina Aleksander Łaszek Andrzej Rzońca Economic Growth in the European Union 16 X 2013 Leszek Balcerowicz Lech Kalina Aleksander Łaszek Andrzej Rzońca Agenda 1. Overview: 1980-2012 2. Before the crisis:1980-2007 3. Crisis and aftermath: 2008-2013

More information

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013

General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013 General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination June 2013 Economics ECON4 Unit 4 The National and International Economy Tuesday 11 June 2013 9.00 am to 11.00 am For this paper you must have:

More information

The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications

The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications Fabrizio Zampolli * Senior Economist Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements NBS Belgrade, 1 October 2010 * Views expressed

More information

Haruhiko Kuroda: Crude oil prices and price stability

Haruhiko Kuroda: Crude oil prices and price stability Haruhiko Kuroda: Crude oil prices and price stability Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Japan National Press Club, Tokyo, 27 February 2015. * * * Accompanying charts can

More information

The Role of Central Banks in the New Global Economic Design

The Role of Central Banks in the New Global Economic Design The Role of Central Banks in the New Global Economic Design Murat Çetinkaya Deputy Governor December 12, 2012 Doha, Qatar Contents I. Monetary Policy: Responses Against Challenges II. Turkish Monetary

More information

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon?

Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? September 015 MONTHLY MARKET INSIGHT Why Are Government Bond Yields Still Low, and Are They Going up Any Time Soon? The fear of rising interest rates, which has clouded investors psyches for years, has

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

The War in Iraq and the Global Economy. L. Josh Bivens Economic Policy Institute Washington, D.C.

The War in Iraq and the Global Economy. L. Josh Bivens Economic Policy Institute Washington, D.C. The War in Iraq and the Global Economy L. Josh Bivens Economic Policy Institute Washington, D.C. lbivens@epinet.org Overview The global economy is fundamentally weak, suffering from insufficient aggregate

More information

Trading FX Options Getting the Big Picture Right Anticipating Event Risk Identifying Catalysts Expressing the View

Trading FX Options Getting the Big Picture Right Anticipating Event Risk Identifying Catalysts Expressing the View Trading FX Options Getting the Big Picture Right Anticipating Event Risk Identifying Catalysts Expressing the View By: Bryan Rich Founder FXTraderProfessional.com Copyright 2014 Logic Fund Management,

More information

Monthly Market Snapshot

Monthly Market Snapshot ly Market Snapshot JANUARY 2016 Key insights The New Year has begun with widespread volatility in global markets, with equities posting steep negative returns in January. The main factors driving the market

More information

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook

11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook Chapter 1: Government Debt Indebtedness of the world s governments Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Japan 17 U.K. 9 Italy 11 Netherlands Greece 11 Norway Belgium 9 Sweden U.S.A.

More information

The Debt Challenge in Europe. Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011

The Debt Challenge in Europe. Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011 The Debt Challenge in Europe Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011 Outline The challenge: debt overhang and price adjustment. Large increase in private debt prior to the crisis. Balance-sheet adjustments

More information

Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates

Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates 7 6 1982 2001 5 4 3 2 1 Austria Belgium Canada Finland France UK Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Notes: For countries using different tax rates,

More information

The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies

The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies 43 rd Meeting of IDB Chief Economists of Central Banks and Finance Ministries The Global Economic Outlook: Advanced and Emerging Economies 13 April 2016 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm

More information

FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015

FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015 FINANCIAL REPORT - MARCH 2015 SUMMARY OF THE MACROECONOMIC INFORMATION The macroeconomic scenario Deflation in Europe, the USA well. The passage of years is very positive for the United States: the positive

More information

DEFLATION. Martin Feldstein * When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make these remarks, he

DEFLATION. Martin Feldstein * When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make these remarks, he DEFLATION Martin Feldstein * Thank you. I am pleased to be here and honored by the opportunity to talk to this distinguished group. When Andrew Crockett called about 10 days ago and invited me to make

More information

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy

Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank Stavanger, Stavanger, 26 March 2010. The text below

More information

The Greek Economic Crisis and Lessons Learned. John B. Taylor July 29, 2015

The Greek Economic Crisis and Lessons Learned. John B. Taylor July 29, 2015 The Greek Economic Crisis and Lessons Learned Testimony before the Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Committee on Foreign Relations United States Senate John B. Taylor July 29, 2015

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN AUGUST 1 Global growth GDP growth in different regions for 1. Percent. IMF projections Sources: IMF and Norges Bank Russia: Lower growth prospects and sanctions

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics February Highlights Sluggish global growth Policy stimulus hopes Bank of Canada on hold Sluggish but no recession The global economy remains stuck in low gear with no material

More information

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy

Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy Sébastien Mc Mahon, CFA Economist Member, Asset Mix Committee Economy, Capital Markets & Strategy 2014 National Business Conference October 2014 1 October 23, 2014 Disclaimer Opinions expressed in this

More information

Greek and EU Economic Crisis ΚΕΠΕ, May 28, 2014

Greek and EU Economic Crisis ΚΕΠΕ, May 28, 2014 Greek and EU Economic Crisis ΚΕΠΕ, May 28, 2014 Prof. Nicholas Economides Stern School of Business, New York University & Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley http://www.stern.nyu.edu/networks/ NET Institute

More information

Demographic Implications for Capital Markets Euromoney Conference 2005 Rome, September 6

Demographic Implications for Capital Markets Euromoney Conference 2005 Rome, September 6 Demographic Implications for Capital Markets Euromoney Conference 2005 Rome, September 6 Stefan Schneider Chief International Economist Structure Demographic trends and their drivers Population dynamics

More information

HANSA TRUST Annual General Meeting 21 st July 2014

HANSA TRUST Annual General Meeting 21 st July 2014 Annual General Meeting 21 st July 2014 Agenda Transition update/ New funds bought Performance review Market outlook 2 Transition Update/ New Funds Bought 3 Performance Review 4 Key Market Highlights (YTD

More information

Global aluminium outlook and our focus on Tier 1 assets

Global aluminium outlook and our focus on Tier 1 assets Global aluminium outlook and our focus on Tier 1 assets Gordon Hamilton, Vice president Metal Management Sales and Marketing, Rio Tinto Alcan Platts Aluminium Symposium Fort Lauderdale Short term economic

More information

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices

Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices Page 1 of 5 Interest Rate Insurance Prices Implicit in Option Prices June 16, 2015 (#2015-13) Douglas T. Breeden William W. Priest Professor of Finance, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and Senior

More information

World Steel Outlook 2015-2016 Adam Szewczyk / Manager, Economics and Statistics. Х Metal Expert s Conference, April 20-21, 2015, Kiev, Ukraine

World Steel Outlook 2015-2016 Adam Szewczyk / Manager, Economics and Statistics. Х Metal Expert s Conference, April 20-21, 2015, Kiev, Ukraine World Steel Outlook 2015-2016 Adam Szewczyk / Manager, Economics and Statistics Х Metal Expert s Conference, April 20-21, 2015, Kiev, Ukraine Disclaimer text This document is protected by copyright. Distribution

More information

IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS

IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE Q1 2015 QUARTER 1 (Q1) 2015: JANUARY TO MARCH 2015 IRISH LIFE MAPS AND IRISH LIFE INVESTMENT MANAGERS Irish Life Multi Asset Portfolios (MAPS) have been designed and

More information

The outlook for the Norwegian economy. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 31 May 2011

The outlook for the Norwegian economy. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 31 May 2011 The outlook for the Norwegian economy Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad Regional network, Sandnes Sparebank 1 May 11 Growth projections 11 and 1, IMF World Economic Outlook April 11. Per cent 1 9 8 7 1 11

More information

Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat?

Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat? Can the US Consumer Keep the World Economy Afloat? January 2016 Robert Johnson, CFA Director of Economic Analysis robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2016 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

More information

M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C

M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C 6 Landmark Square, Stamford, CT 06901 Phone (203) 487-6700 Fax: (203) 487-6720 A Global Economy that Sisyphus Would Understand 2013 AAAIM National

More information

Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany

Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany Marcel Fratzscher DIW Berlin and Humboldt University Berlin PIIE Workshop Washington DC, 16 November 2015 The crisis trap Financial/banking

More information

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis

Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank. Russian Banks After the Crisis Natalia Orlova Chief Economist Alfa-Bank Russian Banks After the Crisis Russia 27: Unaffected by subprime turmoil Assets breakdown US vs. Russia, % of assets Others, 27% US Securities, 2% Others, 3% Russia

More information

Economic Outlook December 2015

Economic Outlook December 2015 Economic Outlook December 215 Economics Unit HEADLINES The global economy has slowed slightly in 215, as a result of further slowing of emerging economies. Improvement is expected in 216, though there

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 1/11 January 1 January 11 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

More information

The 1990 s Financial Crises in Nordic Countries

The 1990 s Financial Crises in Nordic Countries The 1990 s Financial Crises in Nordic Countries Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland I. Introduction 19 crises in advanced countries since WWII (before the current) 1990 s crises in Finland, Norway and Sweden

More information

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY Update on Risks and Opportunities in the Financial Markets January 2015 Weekly Market Commentary Week of January 26, 2015 KEY TAKEAWAYS The latest leg up for the U.S. dollar has

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 3/11 17 March 11 Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy is produced jointly by the

More information

Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update

Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied

More information

NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND. No. 40

NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND. No. 40 NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND WORKING PAPER No. 40 Expected and actual impact of EMU on growth, public finances and structural reforms in the euro area Konrad Szeląg Warsaw, January 2007 Design: Oliwka s.c.

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Professor Richard Barkham, PhD MRICS Global Chief Economist MIDDLE EAST CRISIS 2 3 SO HERE S GDP GROWTH WITH RECESSIONS HIGHLIGHTED U.S. GDP growth % Change, Y-o-Y GEOPOLITICS 8.0

More information