Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016

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1 Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016

2 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural gas demand growth Resilient North American supply and Iranian production returning to the market Global inventories continuing to rise at a rapid rate in the first half of 2016 Forecast supply/demand balance point at end of 2016 the earliest Global gas surplus with slowing Asian demand and Australian and U.S. LNG supplies ramping up 2

3 IMF Real GDP Growth Forecasts 5.0 World 4.0 U.S The IMF has been lowering growth prospects for 2016 since mid EU region bucked the trend The IMF lowered its GDP forecast for 2016 by 0.2% in its January 2016 forecast European Union China Downside risks to the economic outlook: Greater slowdown in China Immigration crisis in Europe & threat of U.K. leaving Eurozone Monetary tightening in the U.S. strengthening the USD and driving capital outflows from emerging markets Source: IMF, Jan Update, World & EU rate based on purchasing power parity. 3

4 MMBD Global Oil Demand Response to Low Oil Prices MMBD 4 3 Global Oil Demand (Monthly YoY Growth) Actual Ex Global Oil Demand (Annual Growth) Forecast All Other China Other OECD U.S Demand has responded positively to low oil prices Source: Demand based on data from Energy Intelligence Group through January 2016; EIA Short Term Energy Outlook February, 2016; IEA Oil Market Report February 2016; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2016; Various consultants, January

5 U.S. Supply Response to Low Oil Prices Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 MMBD U.S. Lower 48 Oil-Directed Rig Count Short-Term U.S. Oil Supply Response 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Total Mid-sized E&Ps Small E&Ps , Horizontal Vertical & Directional -76% -72% -84% Growth in U.S. Oil Production Thousand Barrels per Day 2015 vs vs $38 WTI price Reduction in investment and drilling resulting in lower U.S. crude production outlook Source: Baker Hughes rig count, February 26, 2016; U.S. Department of Energy, EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, February,

6 Short-Term Oil Market Supply - Demand Balances MMBD Global Demand & Supply (MMBD) Supply Demand Q Q Q Q Q Q (0.5) (1.0) Global Oil Market Balances (YoY Growth) Demand OPEC Non-OPEC/Other Source: IEA OMR, February 2016 & COP e 2016f Global Demand from IEA, Global Supply is IEA + COP OPEC forecast as IEA does not forecast OPEC volumes. Non-OPEC/Other supply includes NGL s, including OPEC s, biofuels and refinery process gain. Absolute supply is expected to exceed demand until end of year 6

7 Global Oil Inventories Total U.S. Crude Inventory (Million Barrels) 1,400 Global Oil Stock Growth (Million Barrels) ,200 1, Surplus yr. Avg yr. historical range 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 400 Demand Strategic Reserves Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Structural Source: EIA, IEA; Energy Intelligence Group; ConocoPhillips Large inventory overhang likely to delay price rebound but surplus is overstated

8 Degree of Contango in Brent Futures Price Curve Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr Max Contango 11/13/08 Brent Futures Curve ($ per barrel) Current Market 2/29/ Brent Futures Curve ($ per barrel per month) Max Contango 11/13/08 Current Market 2/29/ Months from Prompt Month Current market doesn t justify the use of floating storage 8

9 Real 2015 $/bbl External Brent Price Views Brent Price Expert Range Range of views is based on: Economic growth forecasts OPEC production expansion / disruptions Non-OPEC production resilience Futures 2/29/16 Difference in opinions are apparent between certain equity vs. commodity analysts Wide range of views on future oil prices 9

10 Lifting Export Ban Prevents Steep Discounts on U.S. Crude Prices $/bbl With U.S. crude production in decline, domestic crude oil price discount is currently small Seasonal discounts would have been possible today (without exports) when U.S. refineries are in steep maintenance turnarounds The domestic crude price discount would have grown over time (without exports) as the global oil price recovered and U.S. crude production growth resumed Crude exports are more likely to be economic when U.S. refineries are in turnaround WTI Minus Brent Crude Price Differential Historical Domestic crude discounted Source: ICE, CME Group Premium for domestic crude Futures Futures U.S. domestic crude price discount has been greatly reduced 10

11 North America Natural Gas Production Lookback 80 Shale Gas Emerged as the Most Competitive Resource (Bcf/day) 1,600 1,400 Output Grew Even as Active Rigs Fell (Number of Gas-Directed Rigs) Shale 1,200 1, Non-Shale Source: Wood Mackenzie; U.S. and Canada production combined Shale gas is a true game-changer in North America and for the world Source: Baker Hughes 11

12 Summary Oil Markets Some improvement expected when the market sees non-opec production declining and inventory growth slowing Inventory overhang delays return to an equilibrium level Downside risks dominated by potential for weak demand growth and resiliency of U.S. tight oil in lower price environment Volatility is expected to remain high Natural Gas North America market growth continues to be met via low cost shale gas supplies Global LNG remains a high growth market and will see increased competition among suppliers Markets should see abundant supplies through 2020 as new LNG projects ramp up concurrent with slowdown in demand growth 12

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