Oil and Natural Gas Analysis at Norges Bank. Pål Winje ( International Department), workshop on modeling and forecasting oil prices, 22 March 2012

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1 Oil and Natural Gas Analysis at Norges Bank Pål Winje ( International Department), workshop on modeling and forecasting oil prices, 22 March 212

2 The Norwegian Petroleum Sector as a Share of Macroeconomic Variables Percent, GDP Exports Goverment Revenue Investment Sources: Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate 2

3 Three topics for my talk Oil price forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report The structural story of oil prices What about natural gas prices? 3

4 Oil prices in the Monetary Policy Report 4

5 Four options for forecasting oil prices Spot price Futures prices Judgement based Model based 5

6 Why futures prices? Consistent with the approach for other exogenous variables Cautious a technical assumtion in line with the market Close to the alternatives Common among other central banks Context allow for discussion 6

7 Oil price (Brent Blend) USD per barrel. Daily figures. January 2 December Oil price Futures MPR 1/12 Futures MPR 3/ Source: Thomson Reuters International Department 7

8 Source: IEA International Department 8

9 Spare production capacity for crude oil in OPEC Million barrels per day. Three month moving average. March 1994 February Annual figures Source: EIA International Department 9

10 Structural story 1

11 Oil price and Chinese imports of crude oil 3 month moving average. January 1994 March 212. Oil price: USD per barrel. Imports: Million metric ton per month Chinese oil imports (LHS) Oil price (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters International Department 11

12 Change in global oil consumption and production Million barrels per day OECD Non-OECD Production Sources: Energy Information Administration and Norges Bank Norges Bank Monetary Policy 12

13 Long term marginal costs World Energy Outlook 211 oil prices in the range from 7 to 9 US dollars per barrel are needed to cover private companies long-term all-in costs for new oil outside OPEC. This composite measure is probably a form of average, so long-term marginal costs are arguably higher. International Department 13

14 Supply challenges ahead IEA s chief economist Dr Fatih Birol Due to high decline rates in current oil fields, fresh sources of oil equivalent to the output of four Saudi Arabias will have to be found simply to maintain present levels of supply by 23 i.e. even without any growth in global oil demand over that period International Department 14

15 Target price from OPEC Saudi Arabia, as the key OPEC swing producer, has recently stated that it aims at an oil price around 1 dollars per barrel. International Department 15

16 Natural gas prices 16

17 Oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf Millions of Sm 3 oil equivalents ¹) 2 Oil 2 16 Gas ¹) Figures for are projections from The shelf 21 Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

18 Export price of Norwegian gas and oil Oil: NOK/barrel. Gas: NOK/Sm Oil price, lagged two quarters (LHS) Gas price (RHS) Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 18

19 Crash course in international gas pricing Much of the traded gas across borders in Europe and OECD Asia is sold under long-term contracts, with linkages to the price of oil or refined products. In a growing number of markets 1), gas prices are set freely in the market, an approach known as gas-togas competition. 1) North-America, United Kingdom, Australia and increasingly in continental Europe 19

20 The relationship between prices for oil and natural gas Substitution effects both on the demand and supply side Common factors Arbitrage activity 2

21 Oil and gas prices Monthly figures. USD/MMBtu. January 1997 March Oil, Brent Gas UK, National Balancing Point Gas US, Henry Hub Norwegian export price for gas (excluding LNG) Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

22 Reduced demand and increased supply in 29 Sources: Statoil 22

23 Decoupled? Certainly for US natural gas prices Not for market based prices in UK And not for oil-indexed Norwegian prices, although renegotiations are reportedly intensifying See Economic Commentaries 4/11: Increased gas exports, but what about prices? 23

24 Gas prices Monthly figures. USD/MMBtu. January 2 - March 212 1) Gas UK, National Balancing Point Gas US, Henry Hub Russian gas, At German border Norwegian export price for gas (excluding LNG) Gas Japan, LNG imports ) For March 212 calculated as daily average Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Statistics Norway 24

25 Oil and gas prices Monthly figures. USD/MMBtu. January March 212. Broken lines indicate futures prices April 212 January 215¹) 25 Oil, Brent Gas UK, National Balancing Point Gas US, Henry Hub Norwegian export price for gas (excluding LNG) ) Futures prices as at 19 March 212 Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

26 To summarize: We use futures prices for forecasting oil prices, but maybe some new insights today or tomorrow? We believe oil prices are high for fundamental reasons, but may come down somewhat in the time ahead. Natural gas prices deserve attention. 26

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