Global Marine Insurance Report 2008

Transcription

1 Global Marine Insurance Report 28 Astrid Seltmann Facts & Figures Committee Analyst/Actuary, CEFOR, Norway

2 Report on marine insurance premiums 26 and 27 By end of August 28, 49 of 54 members (ex 45 of 53, new IUMI member Brasil) reported their country s marine premium figures for accounting years 26 and 27. The reporting countries represent approximately 97% of the total marine premium written by all IUMI members. Total premium for 27 is therefore estimated to reach approx. USD 22.8 billion*, and increase of 9.8% from 26 (excl. premium from mutual P&I Clubs). Taking into account the exchange rate impact, the increase is estimated to be only 5%.

3 World Merchant Fleet and Global Marine Hull & Liability Premium 18% 16% 14% 12% Index of evolution, vessels > 1 GT, 1995 = 1% No. Ships Gross tonnage 1% 8% 6% 4% Global Marine Hull & Liab. Premium Average insured vessel value (CEFOR) Sources: Indicators for World Fleet from ISL Bremen, Vessel value index: CEFOR

4 World Seaborne Trade Volume and Trade Values, Global Cargo Premium 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Index of evolution, 1995 = 1% Total World Trade Volume Global Cargo Premium Total World Trade Values 5% Source: Indicators for World Trade Volume from ISL Bremen A major part of the increase 21-4 & 6-7 and decrease is due to variation in exchange rate against USD! (Cargo mostly written in local currency)

5 Energy Mobiles, Day rates, Oil Price Global Offshore/Energy Premium 4% Index of evolution, = 1% 3% 2% 1% No. Contracted Rigs Global Offshore/Energy Premium Average Day Rates (USD) Oil price, Brent Crude (USD) % Sources: No. Contracted rigs, day rates: RigZone, Oil price: Enery Information Administration (US)

6 Index of evolution of Exchange rates between US$ and selected currencies 16% (as of December each year) 14% 12% USD weaker stronger weaker EUR GBP JPY 1% NOK 8% 6% Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics

7 Global premiums reported 23 to 27 (accounting years) Reported change 26->27 Rough estimate of change 26->27 without exchange rate impact Global Hull Transport / Cargo Marine Liability Offshore / Energy 12.% 11.7% 2.8% 2.5% 9% 5% % % Total 9.8% 5% USD (millions) Increase 1-4 & 5-7 partly due to weakening of USD against European and Asian currencies. Stagnation 5 due to strengthening of USD against major European and Asian currencies.

8 Market Shares % 5.5% Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of World 21.9% 61.3% Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds) Asia/Pacific : Australia, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, India, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore North America : Bermuda, Canada, USA Rest of the World : Brasil (new 27), Congo, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa,Tunisia, United Arab Emirates Countries in italics did not report in 28

9 Report on marine insurance premiums by economic areas (USD Millions) Europe, Asia: Exchange rate effects due to weakening/strengthening of USD Accounting Year Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of the World Rest of World: Brasil figures included from 26

10 Global Marine Premium - 27 (USD Million), as reported 25, 2, Total 15, 1, 5, Accounting Year Cargo Hull Energy Liability

11 Global Hull Premium Major Markets, (USD Million) France Italy Accounting Year Japan Norway Spain UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA Hull : commercial vessels only; direct insurance for: Hull&Machinery, increased value, freight and other ancillary interests, Loss of Hire, Construction risks.

12 Global Cargo Premium Major Markets, (USD Million) Belgium China France Germany 1 Italy Japan Accounting Year Europe/Asia: exchange rate effects. Netherlands Spain Sweden UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA

13 MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTOR Gross Calls (Premium) Operational location Per accounting year USD Million Accounting Year Japan Norway Sweden UK US Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 28

14 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums 4 USD underwriting year 3 as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 4 USD 21 underwriting year 3 4 USD 22 underwriting year 3 4 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of SD 24 underwriting year 3 4 USD 25 underwriting year 3 4 USD 26 underwriting year 3 4 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA end of

15 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums SD underwriting year 4 with estimation towards ultimate, U/W Year to 27 (USD) USD 21 underwriting year 4 USD 22 underwriting year 4 USD 23 underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult end of ult USD 24 underwriting year 4 USD 25 underwriting year 4 USD 26 underwriting year 4 USD 27underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA end of ult

16 Marine Hull Gross Loss Ratio paid claims, Actual and estimated towards ultimate 14% U/W Year 1996 to 27 12% Technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 1% minus the expense ratio (between 2% and 3%, acquisition costs, capital costs and management expenses) 1% 8% 6% 4% 22 27/ / % % Ultimate Ultimates based on 1 IUMI members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

17 Transport/Cargo Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums SD underwriting year USD 21 underwriting year 4 as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) USD 22 underwriting year 4 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of USD 24 underwriting year 4 USD 25 underwriting year 4 USD 26 underwriting year 4 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims end of end of Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

18 Transport/Cargo Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums with estimation towards ultimate, U/W Year to 27 (USD) SD underwriting year USD 21 underwriting year end of ult end of ult 6 USD 22 underwriting year end of ult 6 USD 23 underwriting year end of ult 6 SD 24 underwriting year 5 6 USD 25 underwriting year 5 6 USD 26 underwriting year 5 6 USD 27 underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult end of ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

19 Technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 1% minus the expense ratio (between 2% and 3%, acquisition costs, capital costs and management expenses) Transp./Cargo, Gross Loss ratio paid claims, Actual and estimated towards ultimate U/W Year 1996 to 27 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Ultimate Ultimates based on 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, UK IUA, USA / / /

20 Marine Hull and Cargo/Transport Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio as of 27 14% 12% 1% U/W Year 1996 to 26 Impact of major claims in 27 attaching to 26 + further increase in partial claims costs in 27 8% 6% Marine Hull Cargo/Transport 4% 2% Estimation shown in Copenhagen 27 %

21 Marine Hull and Cargo/Transport Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio as of 28 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% U/W Year 1996 to 27 Hull 6: Claims incurred 27 attaching to 26 Cargo 5: including US impact (Katrina) and 27: When will it end? Marine Hull Cargo/Transport 4% 2% %

22 Hull Gross Loss Ratio (Paid+Outst. Claims / Gross Premiums) by UW year, as reported at 12, 14, 36, 48 and 6 months 9% 8% 27: starts high at 55% 26 UW year: Claims occured in 27, but attaching to % % 27 5% 4% Months

23 Cargo Gross Loss Ratio (Paid+Outst. Claims / Gross Premiums) by UW year, as reported at 12, 14, 36, 48 and 6 months 8% 7% 27: starts at 25 level 23 Cargo claims reserved sufficiently at an early stage. 6% 5% 4% Months Initial claims reserves include recoveries to be expected later. Usually uw year results improve over time.

24 Summing up Hull Marine Hull 24, 25: Few major claims, but increase in average repair cost 26: Increase in number and severity of major claims Trend towards higher attritional claims cost continues Strong impact on result by claims occured in 27, but attaching to 26 27: Starts at high loss ratio level, expected to produce a technical loss again. Premium increases do not sufficiently balance cost inflation.

25 Summing up Transport/Cargo Transport/Cargo Exposures in values increase significantly, but not reflected in premium development Stability in results since 22 25: slightly worse than average result, probably due to Katrina 27: signs of worsening of cargo results