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1 Snabbt mer än 1% förnybart Karlstad Tomas Kåberger Professor, Director Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo CO2- utsläpp i tre ledande regioner Gton Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia China Data from BP Statistical review

2 Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader 17 more cement plants biting the dust Updated: :4 By ZHENG JINRAN in Shijiazhuang (China Daily) Hebei continues with project to cut excess capacity in polluting sectors Work began in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on Monday on the demolition of another 17 cement factories, two months after the first batch of demolitions to improve air quality. "After the second batch of demolitions is finished in March, we can meet the target of reducing excess capacity three years ahead of schedule, reducing production capacity by 4 percent," said Wang Liang, the mayor of Shijiazhuang. Hebei has been hit by many smoggy days in February, causing serious pollution. On Monday, the air quality index exceeded 2 in the morning. Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2 5 Sveriges Bioenergianvändning /3 av använd energi 45 PJ 5 GJ/ capita 1,6 kw/ capita Data: Energimyndigeheten, kortsiktsprognoser Global vindel-kapacitet GW Data från GWEC

3 Ledande GW Experience of Onshore Wind Turbines länders utveckling av vind-el China USA Germany Spain India /MW Data GWEC, 1 Electricity 7,5 m/s 127% 145% 1% SWT 2,3-82 2,3 2,3 SWT 2,3 DD SWT 2,3 DD -113 By courtesy 12

4 212 Average price of new wind power 4 cent/kwh. 214 Average price of new wind power 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 Average price of new wind power 2,5 cent/kwh. Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 4,55 cent/kwh Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 4,7 cent/kwh 13! O1, O2, R1 & R2 hade i medeltal 69% 214

5 5 25 Solar PV Capacity, Globally Solar PV GW 4 capacity, leading countries GWp 2 15 Germany China Italy Japan US UK Data: BP statistical review, 215, for 215 IEA and estimate Data BP stat rev 215, IEA 6 c /kwh Sjunkande tariffer för solel i Tyskland jan jan jan jan jan 21 1 jan 29 1 jan 28 1 jan 27 1 jan 26 1 jan 25 1 jan 24 Rooftop Groud mounted 19 2

6 I I Bangladesh, Japan, USA, läggs ett läggs nytt ett solcellssystem solcellstak varannan varje 3e minut! & Negative network effects will transform the economics and operations of our infrastructure within 1, days. Are you prepared to benefit from the massive value creation that will come with game-changing shifts in energy and other industries? In this comprehensively researched economic analysis, noted consultant Michael Rogol shows how to rapidly build small and midsize companies into hundred-milliondollar enterprises within a thousand days. If you do not adjust to market conditions, you put your business at substantial risk including possible annihilation. The clock is ticking. The book was published 13 December 211. A thousand days had passed on September 8th

7 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 25 kwh Olika energislags bidrag till ökningen av Increasedelproduktionen electricity production in China i Kina Change in US electricity generation 214 to Fossil Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Data: (uncertainties fossil biomass remains) Hydro New Renewable Data from 28 Nuclear Fossil

8 UK electricity generation Fossil Nuclear Renewable 1 1 Change in Japan s Electricity Generation (calendar year) Fossil Nuclear Renewables Data: METI Electricity Research Statistics 2 Svensk elförsörjning Renewable Nuclear Fossil Import 4 3 Tysklands elförsörjning Fossilt Fossilt+import Kärnkraft+förnybart Kärnkraft Förnybart

9 Fraunhofer ISE Fraunhofer ISE Fraunhofer ISE 6 5 Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Danmarks elproduktion Fossil Solar Wind Biomass Jahr 214 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Wind Solar Data: BP statistical review 215 Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX 16 Fraunhofer ISE FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 214 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger 34 Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den Wöchentliche Produktion Solar und Wind Tägliche Produktion Solar und Wind Wöchentliche Produktion Solar und Wind Jahr 214 Tägliche Produktion Solar und Wind 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5,5,4,3,2 Jahr Kalenderwoche,1 Legende: Wind Solar Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Die maximale wöchentliche Stromproduktion erzeugten Solar- und Windenergieanlagen bisher in Kalenderwoche 2 mit 2,6 Die minimale wöchentl. Produktion betrug,8 in Kalenderwoche 4 Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX 32 Fraunhofer ISE FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den Die maximale tägliche Summe der Stromproduktion aus Solar und Wind betrug,676 am Die minimale tägliche Summe der Produktion betrug,22 am Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX 44 Legende: Wind Solar Fraunhofer ISE FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den

10 Vad gör man med mycket sol och vind? El-effektivisering El-produktionsprognoser Bio-kraftvärme Efterfrågestyrning(värme/kyla) El-överföring El-lagring Reserv-elverk Dåliga invändningar Subventionsberoende Intermittent Bas kraft Nätinvesteringar 39 4

11 home/pictures-of-the-future/mobility-andmotors/electromobility-electric-ferries.html Cost development Li-Ion batteries 38, Tesla Powerwall Reservations In Under A Week! May 7th, 215 by Zachary Shahan One of the huge pieces of news coming out of Tesla s conference call last night was that 38, reservations have been made for Tesla s Powerwall. USD/kWh This has apparently even blown Tesla away, and looks to mean that Tesla is sold out through the middle of 216. I don t think anyone can put it in better words that Tesla CEO and Product Architect Elon Musk himself, so here s a transcript from that portion of the conference call: The response has been overwhelming. Okay like, crazy. In the course of less than a week, we ve had 38, reservations for the Powerwall, 2,5 reservations for the Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies, for heavy industrial work. Typically, Powerpack, it s like at least 1 Powerpacks per installation, so if there s 2,5 reservations, there s actually 25, Powerpacks. Powerwall also, we suspect, is probably an average number of Powerpacks is probably 1½ to 2 per installation. So, you know, so, 3, reservations is more like 5, or 6, actual Powerwalls. I mean, there s like no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year. And we re basically, like, sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It s crazy. 44

12 46 45 Snabbt mer än 1% förnybart Karlstad Tomas Kåberger Professor, Director Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo

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