FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

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1 FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Electricity Production and Spot-Prices in Germany 2014 Dipl.-Phys. oec. Johannes Mayer aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

2 ve started our new transparency website: Please have a look at our new transparency platform, where you can find interactive Charts on Power, Energy and Spot-Prices in Germany: consider this the next generation of the (static) graphs you can find in this slides and plan to constantly extend the content with new analysis and data. 2

3 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Price Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 3

4 Historical Day-Ahead Base- and Peak-Prices /h Day-Ahead Price, volume weighted & inflation-adjusted (2014 prices) Base hours (00:00-24:00) Peak hours (08:00-20:00) Base-Peak-Spread in /h

5 nthly Average of Day-Ahead Prices in /h nthly Average of Day-Ahead Prices in 2014 (volume weighted) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX 5

6 ekly Average of Day-Ahead Prices in /h ekly Average of Day-Ahead Prices in 2014 (volume weighted) Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX 6

7 nthly Trading Volume in the Day-Ahead Market 30 TWh nthly Day-Ahead trading volumes, Update: Dec Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX 7

8 History of Price Extremes in the Day-Ahead Market ekly Day-Ahead maximum and minimum prices, Update: Dec /h 2000 /h 2436 /h /h Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX 8

9 Plant System Utilization over Day-Ahead Prices Utilization Ratio depending on Day-Ahead Spot-Prices (Update: Nov 2014) % 90% 80% Utilization Ratio regarding the available capacity. 70% 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Day-Ahead Spot-Price in /h Uranium Brown Coal Gas Hard Coal Source: Johannes Mayer; aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX, Destatis 9

10 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: Diurnal Courses 60,000,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 dislpayed year: 2014 /h 1 1 January February March April May June July August Sept. October Nov. Dec. - - Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday Diurnal courses of monthly production data and Spot-Prices (volume weighted) Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT / EEX, Entso-e 10

11 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 11

12 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: January displayed month: January 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 12

13 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: February February 2014 /h So So So So Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 13

14 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: March March 2014 /h So So So So So Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 14

15 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: April April 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 15

16 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: May May 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 16

17 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: June June 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 17

18 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: July July 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 18

19 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: August August 2014 /h So Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 19

20 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: September September 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 20

21 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: October October 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 21

22 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: November November 2014 /h So So So So So 30 - Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 22

23 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: December December 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 23

24 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 24

25 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 1; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e

26 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 2; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 26

27 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 3; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 27

28 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 4; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 28

29 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 5; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 29

30 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 6; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 30

31 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 7; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 31

32 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 8; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 32

33 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 9; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 33

34 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 10; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 34

35 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 11; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 35

36 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 12; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 36

37 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 13; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 37

38 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 14; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 38

39 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 15; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 39

40 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 16; 2014 /h Good iday Easter nday - Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 40

41 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 17; 2014 /h Easter nday Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 41

42 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 18; 2014 /h May Day Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 42

43 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 19; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 43

44 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 20; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 44

45 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 21; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 45

46 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 22; 2014 /h Corpus Christi Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 46

47 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 23; 2014 /h Whit nday - Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 47

48 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 24; 2014 /h Whit nday Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 48

49 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW ; 2014 /h Corpus Christi Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 49

50 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 26; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e

51 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 27; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 51

52 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 28; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 52

53 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 29; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 53

54 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 30; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 54

55 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 31; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 55

56 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 32; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 56

57 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 33; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 57

58 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 34; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 58

59 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 35; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 59

60 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 36; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 60

61 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 37; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 61

62 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 38; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 62

63 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 39; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 63

64 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 40; 2014 /h German Unification Day Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 64

65 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 41; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 65

66 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 42; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 66

67 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 43; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 67

68 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 44; 2014 /h All ints' Day Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 68

69 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 45; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 69

70 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 46; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 70

71 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 47; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 71

72 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 48; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 72

73 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 49; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 73

74 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW ; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 74

75 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 51; 2014 /h Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e

76 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW displayed week: CW 52; 2014 /h Christmas Eve Christmas Day Christmas Day Legend: Export Import Conventional > Wind Solar Day-Ahead Intraday / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE; Data: EPEX-SPOT, EEX, Entso-e 76

77 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 77

78 Analysis of Spot-Price Extremes On the following slides we try to give explanations for extreme price events based on public available data: - forecast versus actual production of solar and wind - load projection errors - total load in the grid - utilization ratio and total power output of coventional power plants ere are also effects like strategic bidding and certain technical constraints (gridstability, must-run generation, etc.) that are not transparently available. 78

79 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on In the night from turday to nday nine hours of negative Intraday prices occured between 0:00 and 08:00 am, reaching a minimum of 53.6 /h. e production from wind power was app 2 GW higher than projected the day before during the negative price peaking (see following slide). Utilization ratio of power plants (03:00 04:00): 03:00-04:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 1,7 GW GW 9.8 GW 2.5 GW 3.4 GW GW 0 GW Plant Utilization* %.7 % 12.7 % 11.9 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 79 Back to month chart Back to week chart

80 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on GW6 5 4 Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference Total projection error :00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 80 Back to month chart Back to week chart

81 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on In the night from turday to nday nine hours of negative prices occured between 0:00 and 08:00 am, reaching a minimum of 60.3 /h. e production from wind power was app 3 GW higher than projected the day before during the negative price peaking (see following slide). Utilization ratio of power plants (03:00 04:00): 03:00-04:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 1.4 GW GW 7.8 GW 2.0 GW 3.3 GW GW 0 GW Plant Utilization* % 44.8 % 10.9 % 11.7 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 81 Back to month chart Back to week chart

82 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on GW4 3 Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference 2 1 Total projection error A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply -3 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 82 Back to month chart Back to week chart

83 Analysis of the high Intraday prices on In the morning of April 1 st the Intraday price reached a /h peak between 8 and 9 am. e Day-Ahead price for the same hour, traded the day before, was 62.2 /h. e main projection errors during that day resulted from a miss-projection of the load. Actual load was app 4 GW lower higher than projected resulting in an oversupply of electricity. Utilization ratio of power plants (08:00 09:00): 08:00-09:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 1.5 GW GW 16.7 GW 16.1 GW 4.6 GW GW 3.6 GW Plant Utilization* % 92.5 % 84.1 % 19.4 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 83 Back to month chart Back to week chart

84 Analysis of the high Intraday prices on GW5 4 3 Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply -5 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 84 Back to month chart Back to week chart

85 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on On Easter nday April 20 th Intraday prices were negative during the day between 11:00 and 18:00, reaching /h between 2 and 3 pm. Day-Ahead prices for the same hour were positive. PV and wind production combined were about 4 GW higher than projected, the actual load was up to 4 GW lower than projected. e combined projection error was over 7 GW between 1 and 2 pm, explaining the negative intraday prices. Utilization ratio of power plants (14:00 15:00): 14:00-15:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 1.5 GW GW 9.2 GW 2.3 GW 2.1 GW GW 17.5 GW Plant Utilization* % 59.6 % 13.1 % 8.6 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 85 Back to month chart Back to week chart

86 Analysis of the negative Intraday prices on GW Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference Easter nday :00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 86 Back to month chart Back to week chart

87 Analysis of the negative Spot prices on On nday May 11 spot market prices were negative during the day between 06:00 and 16:00. e minimum prices were /h (Day-Ahead) and /h (Intraday) between 2 and 3 pm. Projection errors were relatively low during that day (see following slide) reaching app -1.5 GW during 2 and 3pm, mainly due to an overestimate of wind production. Utilization ratio of power plants (14:00 15:00): 14:00-15:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 1.9 GW GW 7.5 GW 2.1 GW 2.8 GW GW 15.0 GW Plant Utilization* % 48.9 % 11.7 % 15.8 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 87 Back to month chart Back to week chart

88 Analysis of the negative Spot prices on GW5 4 3 Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply -5 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 88 Back to month chart Back to week chart

89 Analysis of the high Intraday prices on On nday July 21 st the Intraday price reached a 1.12 /h peak between 11 am and noon. e Day-Ahead price for the same hour, traded the day before, was /h. e effect can be explained by the projection errors during that day: Wind and PV produced up to 6 GW less than projected, the load was up to 4 GW higher. In the hour before noon, the total projection resulted in 6 GW undersupply. Utilization ratio of power plants (11:00 12:00): 11:00-12:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 2.4 GW GW 14.9 GW 13.3 GW 5.7 GW GW 8.3 GW Plant Utilization* % 86.6 % 88.0 % 28.3 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 89 Back to month chart Back to week chart

90 Analysis of the high Intraday prices on GW Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply :00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22: Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 90 Back to month chart Back to week chart

91 Analysis of the negative Spot prices on On the afternoon of nday 17 th in August, Spot prices were negative for several hours reaching a minimum of /h (Day-Ahead) and /h (Intraday) between 1 and 2 pm. Projection errors cumulated to about -2 GW during that time (mainly due to a load projection error). Utilization ratio of power plants (13:00 14:00): 13:00-14:00 Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production 3.1 GW GW 6.2 GW 2.3 GW 1.6 GW GW 14.4 GW Plant Utilization* %.8 % 14.4 % 10.1 % *compared to available capacity Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 91 Back to month chart Back to week chart

92 Analysis of the negative Spot prices on GW4 3 Actual production/load minus projected production/load (from day before) Solar projection error Wind projection error Load projection error Total projection error Fossil production difference A positive total projection error is defined as oversupply, a negative total projection error as undersupply -3 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: Johannes Mayer, aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-E 92 Back to month chart Back to week chart

93 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 93

94 Installed power in November 2014 Net installed capacity rating GW year GW GW GW GW GW GW GW GW Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Wind Solar Biomass Hydro power Source: Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE, Data: Bundesnetzagentur 94

95 Total Electricity Production by Source in 2014 Electricity production: first eleven months 2014 TWh year TWh TWh 90.7 TWh TWh 42.6 TWh 32.4 TWh 48.6 TWh 16.8 TWh Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Wind Solar Biomass Hydro power Source: Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE, Data: Bundesnetzagentur 95

96 Electricity Import-Export-Balance Strom Export und Import TWh 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Jahr 2014 Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Export (DESTATIS) Import (DESTATIS) Export (Entso-e) Import (Entso-e) Source: Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE, Data: Bi Energiedaten; DESTATIS; Entso-e 96

97 Electricity Import-Export-Balance Strom Export und Import ldo Import TWh 2,0 1,0 Jahr ,0 Export -2,0-3,0-4,0-5,0 Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Exportüberschuss (DESTATIS) Importüberschuss (DESTATIS) Exportüberschuss (Entso-e) Importüberschuss (Entso-e) Source: Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE, Data: Bi Energiedaten; DESTATIS; Entso-e 97

98 Electricity Import-Export-Balance Strom Export und Import ldo Imp. TWh Jahr Export Legende: Exportüberschuss (DESTATIS) Importüberschuss (DESTATIS) Exportüberschuss (Entso-e) Importüberschuss (Entso-e) Source: Bruno Burger, aunhofer ISE, Data: Bi Energiedaten; DESTATIS; Entso-e 98

99 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 99

100 Instructions Jump back to Agenda e presentation is designed to provide an overview of the German electricity market by visualization of important market parameters (electricity production from conventional and renewable sources, import-export data and electricity spot market prices). Basis: Legal obligation for utility companies to publish production and consumption data since 2003 (European regulation EG 1228/2003)

101 Instructions e production time series of conventional power sources in this presentation refer to the net production of power plants greater. Self consumption of the power plants and transfer losses are not included. Hence the total sum of conventional production differs from the gross electricity production listed by other sources (i.e. dstatis). e period mean value is calculated as volume weighted average for Day-Ahead- Spot-Prices and Intraday-Spot-Prices. / h Period Mean Period Min Period Max Trading / GWh Day-Ahead Intraday 101

102 Instructions e abbreviations in the table below represent the following energy sources: English: German: Production Plant Utilization* Hydro Bio Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar 102

103 Instructions are working hard on constantly improving the quality and significance of the information given in this presentation. erefore we look forward to your critical comments and ideas for further analysis. Contact: Johannes Mayer 103

104 AGENDA General Spot-Price Analysis Electricity Production and Spot-Prices Analysis by month Analysis by ek Analysis of Spot-Prices Extremes General energy data Instructions Sources and Disclaimer 104

105 Sources Production Data: Electricity Spot Prices: Import-Export Data: Load Data: 105

106 Disclaimer of Liability e content of this slides has been carefully prepared and reviewed. However, the aunhofer Institute of Solar Energy Systems (ISE) does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or quality of the information provided, or that it is up-to-date. Liability claims against the aunhofer ISE in respect of material or immaterial damage caused by the use or non-use of the information offered or by inaccurate or incomplete information are in principle ruled out provided that there is no provable culpable intent or gross negligence on the institute s part. 106

107 ank-you for your attention! aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer Tel.: 0049 (0)

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