Tomas Kåberger. Sveriges energi- omställning Hur påverkas industrin? Ledande länders utveckling av vind-el

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1 Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader Sveriges energi- omställning Hur påverkas industrin? Tomas Kåberger Professor i Industriell energipolicy vid Chalmers visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Ordförande Japan Renewable Energy Foundation Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2 GW 35 Global vindel-kapacitet Data från GWEC Ledande länders utveckling av vind-el GW Kina USA Tyskland Spanien Indien Data från GWEC

2 TWh 15 Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader Elproduktion i Kina Wind Vindkraft Nuclear Kärnkraft Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Data BP-212, 213 CWEA, est, 212 Average price of new wind power 4 cent/kwh. Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) 212 Average price of new wind power 4 cent/kwh. 213 Average price of new wind power 2,5 cent/kwh. Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) Taking into account the Production Tax Credit, the price was 4,7 cent/kwh (33 öre/kwh) 7 7

3 212 Average price of 3w 21ne wind ofwer e pricepo Ave 4rag cent/kwh. new wind power 2,5Tacent/kWh. king into account the Taking into Productthe account ion Tax Credit,tion thetax price Produc was 6, 2 ce cewh nt pri the /k Credit, (4 3 ör e/ kw t/kwh was 4,7 cenh) (33 öre/kwh) 212 Average price of 3w 21ne wind ofwer e pricepo Ave 4rag cent/kwh. new wind power 2,5Tacent/kWh. king into account the Taking into Productthe account ion Tax Credit,tion thetax price Produc was 6, 2 ce cewh nt pri the /k Credit, (4 3 ör e/ kw t/kwh was 4,7 cenh) (33 öre/kwh) 41 US D/M Wh, Average price of 3w 21ne wind ofwer e pricepo Ave 4rag cent/kwh. new wind power 2,5Tacent/kWh. king into account the Taking into Produ ion Tax accountctthe Credit,tion price Produc thetax was 6, 2 ce cewh nt/k Credit, the pri (4 3 ör e/ h kw t/kw cen h) 4,7 s wa h) (33 öre/kw 41 US öre /k Wh 212 Average price of 3w 21ne wind ofwer e pricepo Ave 4rag cent/kwh. new wind power 2,5Tacent/kWh. king into account the Taking into Produ ion Tax accountctthe Credit,tion price Produc thetax was 6, 2 ce cewh nt/k Credit, the pri (4 3 ör e/ h kw t/kw cen h) 4,7 s wa h) (33 öre/kw 7 Wh 7 D/M Wh, 27 öre /k s.dk/sites/en skrivn o/tal-kort/frem s.dk/files/inf 41 US D/M _7_1 notat_-_214 er-modeller/ inger-analys Wh, 27 _elproduktion somkostnin 7 öre /k! ger_for_1_u Wh dvalgte_tekno logier.pdf

4 14 12 GWp GW Solceller i världen 3 1 Solar PVinstallations 2 leading countries GW Germany China Italy Japan US Spain 1 2 Data: BP statistical review 212, 213 Bloomberg estimate Data BP stat rev c /kwh Solar FIT in Germany jan jan jan jan jan 21 1 jan 29 1 jan 28 1 jan 27 1 jan 26 1 jan 25 1 jan 24 Rooftop Ground mounted 1 11

5 I USA, läggs ett nytt solcellstak var 3e minut & & I Japan, ettsolcellstak nytt I USA, läggs läggs ett nytt solcellstak varvarannan 3e minut minut! I Bangladesh, Japan, läggs ettsolcellstak nytt ett I USA, läggs läggs ett nytt solcellstak solcellssystem varjeminut! minut! varvarannan 3e minut & &

6 Negative network effects will transform the economics and operations of our infrastructure within 1, days. Are you prepared to benefit from the massive value creation that will come with game-changing shifts in energy and other industries? In this comprehensively researched economic analysis, noted consultant Michael Rogol shows how to rapidly build small and midsize companies into hundred-milliondollar enterprises within a thousand days. If you do not adjust to market conditions, you put your business at substantial risk including possible annihilation. The clock is ticking. The book was published 13 December 211. A thousand days had passed on September 8th

7 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 14 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 14

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11 Omvälvande innovationer Sol- och vind-el är för dyr... Intermittent el duger inte... Sol och vind passar inte affärsmodellen Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger

12 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger TWh Icke-fossil elproduktion i världen Global, årlig förändring av elproduktionen TWh Renewable Nuclear Fossil 1 5 Förnybart Kärnkraft Data från BP Statistical Review

13 18 TWh Tysklands elproduktion utan fossila bränslen Nuclear Renewable Kärnkraft [TWh] Förnybar energi [TWh] data from ag-energiebilanzen.de

14 Elpris i Stockholm, årsmedel 6 5 SEK/MWh Källa: Nordpool Spot Elutbyte mellan Sverige och grannländerna, netto 1,5 TWh 1 TWh 12 TWh

15 Elutbyte mellan Sverige och grannländerna, netto 214 Q1-3 1 TWh 5 TWh 1 TWh 2 TWh 14 TWh 29 En gång hade vi ett val Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader TWh 6 Icke-fossil elproduktion i världen Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Förnybart Kärnkraft Data från BP Statistical Review

16 Sveriges energi- omställning Hur påverkas industrin? Tomas Kåberger Professor i Industriell energipolicy vid Chalmers visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Ordförande Japan Renewable Energy Foundation TWh Tysk utveckling (första 11 månaderna) Nuclear Lignite Hard Coal Fossil Gas Wind Solar Biomass Hydro,1 4 11,3 6,5,2 2,2 5,4 34 6,7 12, 8, 4,, 4, 8, Tyskt (exportpris - importpris) 213, /MWh 1,7 7,5 1,7 3,5 1,5 Sweden Denmark France Netherlands Austria Poland Czech Republic Switzerland 1,6 2,6 35 3,3 Data from https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online Fossilt Fossilt+import Kärnkraft+förnybart Kärnkraft Förnybart 36

17 German electricity supply Om OECDs konsumenter köper ner kostnaden Import Renewable Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Lignite 7 TWh Data from B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) Om OECDs konsumenter köper ner kostnaden Tysklands elkonsumtion 1/2 av OECD Om OECDs konsumenter köper ner kostnaden Tysklands elkonsumtion 1/2 av OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25)

18 Om OECDs konsumenter köper ner kostnaden Tysklands elkonsumtion 1/2 av OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh Tyska konsumenter betalar 4 US cent/kwh extra för PV Om OECDs konsumenter köper ner kostnaden Tysklands elkonsumtion 1/2 av OECD 2*,1 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh Tyska konsumenter betalar 4 US cent/kwh extra för PV 4 US cent/kwh = 2 US cent/kwh + vinst + snabbare kostar B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) B.A. Sanden, The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies, Solar Energy 78 (25) CO2- utsläpp i tre ledande regioner Gton Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia China Data from BP

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