Integrating 300 GW wind power in European power systems: challenges and recommendations. Frans Van Hulle Technical Advisor

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1 Integrating 300 GW wind power in European power systems: challenges and recommendations Frans Van Hulle Technical Advisor Worldbank, SDN Week, Washington, February 21-22, 2008 Leonard Crettaz

2 What is the European Wind Energy Association? EWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting the utilisation of wind power in Europe and worldwide for the past 25 years. Resources are focussed on lobbying, communication and policy activities, and responding to enquiries from our member organisations.

3 EWEA members include the following leading companies:

4 300 GW wind power in 2030 >20 % of EU electricity

5 Objective of the presentation To demonstrate by the case of Europe that it is a realistic objective to have wind power as a mainstream source in the generation portfolio, provided the right framework conditions are present To highlight important issues encountered when integrating wind in Europe: interconnection and market characteristics To discuss directions to follow in power system design with significant amounts of wind power

6 Outline EU targets and the new renewables directive Wind power integration challenges and the European approach: power system design grid reinforcements wind power plants versus grid requirements Conclusions

7 EU has set ambitious renewable energy and wind power targets

8 EU energy mix: wind power is moving fast 1995 Total 532 GW 2007 Total 775 GW NUCLEAR 24% Other 2% NATURAL GAS 10% WIND 0% BIOMASS 1% NUCLEAR 17% Other 2% NATURAL GAS 21% BIOMASS 0% LARGE HYDRO 20% FUEL OIL 13% COAL 31% LARGE HYDRO 15% FUEL OIL 7% COAL 30% WIND 7% NATURAL GAS WIND COAL FUEL OIL LARGE HYDRO BIOMASS NUCLEAR Other

9 New power capacity in EU : wind second after gas LARGE HYDRO 2% FUEL OIL 3% COAL 6% BIOMASS 1% NUCLEAR 1% Other 2% WIND 30% NATURAL GAS 55% NATURAL GAS WIND COAL FUEL OIL LARGE HYDRO BIOMASS NUCLEAR Other

10 EU targets for renewables in 2020 The proposed Directive (Jan 2008) sets an EU target of a 20% share of renewable energy in 2020, compared to the share of 8.5% today Differentiated binding national targets National action plans by March 2010 Setting targets for the share of renewables in the electricity, transport and heating & cooling sectors, Describing the measures adopted to achieve them Combined with targets of 20% increase of energy efficiency and 20% reduction of CO2 emission Separate target to increase the share of biofuels in transport fuels by 10%

11 20% target : How Click much to RES-E edit Master and wind title style power? 35% renewable electricity is needed to reach the 20% target for renewable energy Today RES-E produces 15% of EU electricity (10% large hydro, 3% wind, 2% other) Excluding large hydro the share of RES-E must increase from 5% to approximately 25% EC expects contribution of wind power to be 12% of electricity demand in 2020 This fits with the vision of EWEA (180 GW wind in 2020), provided energy efficiency is improved according to EC target.

12 EWEA wind power targets 300 GW GW 20-23% GW % GW 12% 5% 8% Onshore Offshore

13 Country wise wind energy penetrations: the size of the gap 12 %

14 Targets versus resources Global potential of RES versus annual electricity demand of 5 MWh per capita 91% km km 2 31% 34% 12% km 2 125% 34% 26% km 2 39% 44% km km 2 107% 426% 123% wind solar (surface needed to cover 100%) hydro Sources : Various (CGEC Stanford, WEC, ), population 2005

15 Change the power system to maximise wind power penetration

16 Integrating a continental resource requires a European approach Spatial de-correlation most interesting over large distances. Meteo systems dimensions of 1000 kilometres L Regional decorrelation existing but limited Utilization of transcontinental decorrelation requires infrastructures markets H Courtesy of Andrew Garrad

17 Power system: integration efforts needed Wind power fits well in power systems, requires additional integration efforts, depending on: Wind power penetration Flexibility of the power system in question Generation (up and down regulation capability) Demand management and storage Interconnection (available capacity) Power market characteristics (e.g. for balancing services): time, geographical area. Power system flexibility varies widely in EU. To reach a same level of penetration, different integration efforts are needed in different countries. (Under investigation within IEA).

18 Additional Click balancing to edit Master requirements title style Increase in reserve requirement Increase as % of wind capacity 10 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % Four hours ahead 0 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % Wind penetration (% of gross demand) Germany, Minnesota day-ahead others in-hour Nordic countries Finland Sweden Ireland 1 hour Ireland 4 hours UK Sweden (4 hours) dena Germany Minnesota 2006 different time scales for estimating the reserve requirement using wind power forecasts different methodology used

19 Additional balancing costs Euros/MWh wind Increase in balancing cost 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % Wind penetration (% of gross demand) Nordic countries Finland Not directly comparable due to: different time scales; allocating investment for new reserve or only use of reserves; possibilities for power exchange to neighbouring countries; method for calculating costs based on assumptions on thermal power UK Ireland Xcel Colorado Xcel Minnesota CA RPS California Greennet Germany Greennet Denmark Greennet Finland Greennet Norway Greennet Sweden

20 Power system and market design: the way forward Additional balancing costs are LOW: below 4 / MWh (wind) for penetration levels up to 20%. Costs can be further reduced by appropriate market design Intraday trading, develop fast energy markets, market aggregation to facilitate cross border trading new demand markets to use wind power overflow at large penetrations Improved (use of) forecasting helps to further reduce costs Development of the Internal Electricity Market in Europe. Third liberalisation package, Unbundling and European Cooperation of TSO s Strengthening of powers and European Coordination of regulators

21 Need for grid infrastructure upgrade

22 Grid infrastructure: the challenge THE MAIN CHALLENGES Increased (cross-border) power flows as wind power capacity increases Distance of wind power from load centres Wind power is a different type of plant ISSUES European grid is weak on interconnections. Interconnection projects face long lead times (10 years) due to planning obstacles. Cost allocation : example approach: Infrastructure planning law in Germany (offshore grids for wind power to be built by TSO s under the regulatory regime).

23 Grid upgrade strategy for future large scale integration SINGLE EUROPEAN GRID cost TEN-E Transnational Offshore grid Upgrade critical interconnectors upgrade and new transmission lines Upgrade / smart distribution grids Optimisation (T monitoring, FACTS) Smart grids time

24 Costs from Click grid to edit reinforcement Master title studies style UK : / kw ( /kw) for 26 GW wind Netherlands : /kw for 6 GW offshore wind Portugal : 53 /kw for 5.1 GW wind German dena study:100 /kw for 36 GW wind Cost results are often not directly comparable: Distances and grid densities (km/km2) are different Grid reinforcement costs are not continuous, there can be single very high values Different ways of allocating costs to wind power: Shallow / deep costs Wind farm and power system interface

25 Trans European Networks TEN-E and Priority Interconnection Plan Way forward : open & transparent assessment planning, operation & organisation at Regional level Coordinated planning at regional levels Streamlining of authorisation procedures approval processes for projects of European interest should be completed in a maximum time span of five years. EU funding Increased EU funding for TEN- E networks? UK & Ireland (ATSOI) NI IE South West PT GB ES (NORDEL) (UKTSOA) Northern Central West NL BE LU FR Central South NW DK CH IT IT DE SW AT SL FI GR CZ PL SK HU ES LA LI HR, BA, RS, ME, MK, RO, & BG. Baltic (BALTSO) (UCTE) Central East South East Initiative

26 Two large integration studies Wind power industry Large wind power penetration Short to long term 2030 Equivalent grid model Market mechanisms International forecasting Future grid topologies, e.g offshore Contribution of wind power to system adequacy European TSO s Medium penetration Short/medium term Detailed power system study Operation and grid management Risk assessment Harmonised grid connection requirements

27 Wind power plants versus grid connection requirements

28 Wind power plant capabilities Ever increasing controllability of wind turbines keeps up with ever stricter technical requirements

29 Grid connection requirements: the challenge Grid codes need to be so strict in due time that a given future penetration level is not blocked due to technical reasons. TSO and wind sector about to start to co-operate at EU level for further development of grid code requirements EWEA is developing industry strategy on European harmonisation (structural / technical) of Grid code requirements for wind power

30 Conclusions

31 Conclusions The 2020 targets for RES are inspired by the fast growth rate of wind power. A penetration of 12% in 2020 is considered realistic. Requires implementation onshore and offshore. Targets cannot be reached without a proactive policy framework supporting the promotion of RES (RES directive, IEM, TEN-E, SET plan) In Europe significant wind penetration is pursued and supported by integrating markets and improving interconnection - (which is not a specific wind energy objective) Three example of the added value of European approach: power system: market integration and harmonisation towards more flexibility grid upgrade: start thinking and acting big (supergrid, SET-Plan) grid codes: EU level approach is the next step Back-up by international studies (like TradeWind) should be increased.

32 Conclusion Integrating 300 GW and more of wind power by the year 2030 into European power systems: a feasible option for the electricity supply beneficial in many respects: It increases the security of supply. It contributes to low and predictable electricity prices. It is environmentally sustainable

33 THANK YOU

34 31 March to 3 April, Brussels EXPO

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